Who’s Left At AAA?—Future MLB Hitter Debuts

Posted by Jeremy on June 24, 2010 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Michael Stanton, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Ike Davis, Dayan Viciedo, and Pedro Alvarez.

1955 saw Roberto Clemente, Sandy Koufax, Brooks Robinson, and Jim Bunning’s debuts.  ‘67 brought us Carew, Reggie, Seaver, and Bench.  2001 saw the debuts of current All-Stars like Ichiro, Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, and Alfonso Soriano.  Just two months into the 2010 season, this crop of future stars has already receiving comparisons to other epic freshman classes.

The well is FAR from dry.  In this two part series, we’ll take a look at what other fine prospects will be making their MLB debuts this summer and will examine the market conditions of their rookie cards.  Today, we take a look at the hitters at the AAA level that could make some waves in the collecting industry over the next couple of months.

Chris Carter–Oakland A’s 1B/DH

I’ve written quite a bit over the last couple of weeks about Carter and his potential market impact.  The 2009 Oakland A’s minor league player of the year looked like Rob Deer in May ( 30 games .214 7 HR 28 RBI 38 K’s), but seems to be restoring some of his plate discipline through the first 13 games in June (.303 3 HR 5 RBI 5 doubles 5 BB/10 K).  Carter’s turn around is coming at a good time, as the A’s have slipped to third in the A.L. West pennant race and, as testified by the recent acquisition of Diamondbacks OF Conor Jackson, are looking to add more offense.  Despite the solid June numbers, Carter’s call up is not imminent.  Daric Barton has enjoyed his best season as a pro at first base and Carter’s defense (9 errors) has been a detriment to his development at the position.  Designated hitter seems like the most logical destination, but Jack Cust is hitting .310 since his return to the lineup and CoCo Crisp is wrapping up a rehab stint at Sacremento, creating a log jam in the OF.  

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects——-$2-3
• 2007 Bowman Sterling——————–$3-4
• 2008 Donruss Threads Auto (#/499)—$22-25

Desmond Jennings—Tampa Bay Rays OF

Jennings is fully back from his injury issues and, despite being empty in the HR department, is starting to drive the ball again.  Over his last 10 games, the Rays #1 prospect is hitting .357 with five doubles, three triples and 14 runs scored.  The Rays have been slumping as of late, losing seven of their last ten games and sliding into a 2nd place tie with the surging Boston Red Sox.  There is too much talent talent on this team to expect that trend to continue, but Boston and New York both are showing no signs of slowing down as the season reaches the midway point.  The fact that Jennings is driving the ball a bit better now is a prime indicator that the wrist and shoulder are feeling much better, which means that the HR’s should start to come back soon as well.  When they do, the Rays will be hard pressed to keep their top prospect at Durham for much longer. 

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects——$2-3
• 2007 Bowman Sterling——————-$3-5
• 2008 Donruss Threads Auto (#/749)–$22-25

3.) Brett Wallace—Toronto Blue Jays 1B/DH

The Blue Jays’ future 1B is on a tear over his last 10 games, hitting .372 with 2 HR 5 RBI and 9 runs scored.  Even more encouraging is the fact that the plate discipline that eluded him in May (4 BB/32 K) has taken a turn for the better in the month of June (6 BB/11 K).  The Blue Jays have exceeded expectations this season playing above .500 ball, but the curse of the A.L. East is upon them.  Their 38-34 record is good for 4th place, seven games back of the Yankees.  The Jays currently have Lyle Overbay at first base right now and that is problematic for Wallace’s promotion.  Overbay has been hitting well during the month of June, but his $7.9 million dollar contract and extremely limited upside all but evaporates any trade value he has right now.  The Jays don’t seem to be in a rush to make room for their prized power prospect quite yet.  After outrighting Edwin Encarnacion to AAA, they skipped over Wallace to call up utility infielder Jarret Hoffpauir.  I think the Jays want to see Wallace tune up that plate discipline a bit more while they allow themselves another 3-4 weeks to try and push themselves into contention.  After that, things will open up for Wallace and his bright future.

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2008 UD Team USA Autos (varied)——$9-15
• 2009 Razor Exclusive Auto (#/499)—–$9-12
• 2010 Topps Futures Game Jsy (#/139)–$5-6

Jesus Montero—New York Yankees C

The Yankees’ #1 overall prospect has struggled this season at AAA, hitting just .235 with 4 HR and 25 RBI.   Through his first 64 games, Montero has already struck out more this year than he did all of last year.  Still, the 21 year old Venezuelan is a key prospect in trade rumors that involved the Yankees and Seattle Mariner ace Cliff Lee.  Montero’s debut seems to be exclusively tied to this transaction.  If it occurs and Montero becomes a Mariner, his MLB debut will come soon after the trade, if not immediately.  If he continues to wear pinstripes, Montero will have to wait until September’s roster expansion, and his playing time in the midst of a pennant race will be extremely limited.

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2008 Bowman Chrome Prospects——-$2-3.50
• 2008 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto——$50-55
• 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto————-$32-35
• 2008 Donruss Threads Auto (#/975)—$22-25

Mark Trumbo—L.A. Angels 1B

Sure he lacks the star power of the other players on this list, but the 6-4 225 lb. first baseman is quietly having a career year, hitting .277 and leading the PCL in HR’s (17) and RBI (60).  Trumbo is on pace to exceed his numbers from two years ago when he hit 32 HR and drove in 93 runs at High-A and AA stops.  The season ending injury to Kendry Morales left a void at 1B for the Halos, one they patched up with catcher Mike Napoli.  The move seems to be working in the short term and the Angels are effectively keeping pace with the surging Texas Rangers in the A.L. West.  However, the Angels have been linked to a number of trade rumors involving other prominent first basement like Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman.  If one of these trades takes place, Trumbo will be stuck at Salt Lake City until September.  If the Angels decide to stand pat, Trumbo’s debut could happen much sooner, and with much more playing time attatched to it.

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2004 Donruss Elite Extra Auto (#/1321)—–$7-9
• 2004 SP Prospects Auto (#/400)————–$12-15
• 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects————-$0.50-1.00
• 2006 Bowman Sterling————————–$0.75-2.00

Josh Bell—-Baltimore Orioles 3B

The switch-hitting 3B got off to a slow start this season but has really picked things up during May and June.  For the season, Bell is hitting .268 with 8 HR 38 RBI and 21 doubles.  The strides that Bell made last year with his plate discipline have not carried over to this season (17 BB/66 K’s in 67 games), but he’s finding ways to make solid contact and is driving the ball well (.323 BABIP, 23.1% line drive rate).  The Orioles have been epically bad this season and names like Ty Wiggington and Luke Scott are circulating through the trade rumor mills.  Once this happens, expect a deeper youth movement to hit Camden Yards with Bell and his bat at the forefront.

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft—$1.50-3.00
• 2008 Bowman Chrome Auto—$7-9

J.P. Arencibia—Toronto Blue Jays C

The second time seems to have been the charm for the Blue Jay’s former first rounder.  Arencibia’s all or nothing approach at the plate last year (.235 21 HR 75 RBI 26 BB/114 K’s) kept him from breaking in with the club last year, but this season at Las Vegas has seen across the board improvement (.291 15 HR 38 RBI 20 doubles 19 BB/54 K).  The Jays have been the benefactors of a career season from current backstop John Buck, and backup Jose Molina offers superior defensive capabilities.  That leaves Arencibia to continue to toil at the minor league level for another couple of months or so. 

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2007 Bowman Sterling Auto——$7-9
• 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto— $6-8
• 2008 Bowman Chrome Auto——$8-10

Michael Taylor—Oakland A’s OF

Taylor’s season has delivered far short of expectations, due in large part to a calf injury that sidelined him for much of May.  His bat is showing signs of life, though, as he’s hit .295 over his last 10 games.  Taylor has also sharpened his plate discipline (10 BB/15 K) in June, which may be an indicator that he’s finally catching stride.  The A’s have a plethora of outfielders right now and the recent acquisition of Conor Jackson only further muddies the water for Taylor’s future promotion.  Still, if we’ve learned anything about Billy Beane over the years, it’s that he’s always active near the trade deadline and is not afraid to deal major league veterans for minor league talent and depth.  The A’s, as mentioned earlier, are slipping fast in the A.L. West and look to be sellers in the month of July.   CoCo Crisp has a $5.75 million club option for 2011 and Conor Jackson is arbitration eligible.   Neither of those players seem to be a part of Oakland’s long term future plans and their departures would open up roster space for franchise cornerstones like Taylor and Chris Carter. 

Current eBay Market Conditions:

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft—————-$1.50-2.50
• 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Auto (#/720)—$17.50-20.00
• 2008 Playoff Contenders———————$17.50-20.00

Pedro Alvarez To Make MLB Debut This Week?

Posted by Jeremy on June 14, 2010 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Days away from his debut

Last week, the #1 overall pick from the 2009 MLB draft, Steven Strasburg, made his major league debut.  This week,  3B Pedro Alvarez, the #2 pick from the 2008 draft,  is reported in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette as possibly earning a callup by the Pittsburgh Pirates this week.  Alvarez’s pro career didn’t get off to the best of starts.  A widely publicized flap between agent Scott Boras and the Pirates front office over a signing bonus, plus reports of him showing up to his pro debut out of shape had a slightly detrimental effect on his status with card collectors and Pirates fans.  Despite a slow start at High-A Lynchburg (.247 14 HR 55 RBI), the Pirates decided to promote Alvarez to AA Altoona where the left hand hitting 3B hit .333 with 13 HR 40 RBI and 18 doubles in just 60 games. 

Alvarez has not let up this season.  Through his first 64 games at AAA Indianapolis, he is hitting .285 with 13 HR 52 RBI and 15 doubles.  The strikeouts are still a concern (31 BB/66 K’s), but he’s shown marked strides in hitting against left-handed pitching (.323/.408/.661), an area he struggled with last season. 

Current eBay Market for Key Pedro Alvarez Cards:

• 2008 Razor (non-autos)———————-$2-3
• 2008 Razor Exclusive Signature————$18-20
• 2008 Razor Signature Series (#/499)——$22-25
• 2008 UD Team USA (various serial #’s)—-$22-28
• 2010 eTopps (749 in circulation)———–$9-12
• 2010 Topps Pro Debut Jersey (#/135)—–$8-10

Alvarez was one of several top 2008 draft picks that Razor snatched away from the major card manufacturers and signed to an exclusive sports memorabilia contract.  As a result, there are no Bowman or Panini autographs of his yet.  To date, the market for Razor autos has been fair, more valued than Tristar or Just and less valued than Bowman, Donruss or Upper Deck brands.  The eTopps cards could be intriguing buys as could his serial numbered Razor autos.  Alvarez should provide immediate power impact to the middle of Pittsburgh’s lineup, and the friendly confines of PNC park could push him to put up ROY-quality numbers. 

The Pirates are building something worth watching again.  Earlier promotions of Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, and Neil Walker seem to be working well, and GM Neil Huntington has done a masterful job in stocking the farm system with high quality prospects through drafts and trades. Pedro Alvarez alongside Andrew McCutchen as franchise cornerstones could provide the city of Pittsburgh something that they haven’t seen since the days of Bonds and Bonilla—baseball in October.

Current Pedro Alvarez eBay Auctions:

A New $100 Growth Project

Posted by Jeremy on June 11, 2010 under $100 Growth Project | 4 Comments to Read

The New Project Begins Today!

Since coming back into the blogging scene, I have been heartened to hear from several old friends and followers of this site, and the support that has been given to me since coming back has been much appreciated.  One reader contacted me and asked about the results of the $100 Growth Project.  For those of you new to this blog site, the $100 Growth Project was a challenge that was issued to me to take one C-Note and try to make it grow through speculative purchases and sales during a one year period. 

In the early going, I made several purchases and sales, establishing a nice cash flow and strong residual inventory within a short period.  Unfortunately, I was unable to see the project through to the finish and did not achieve the results that I feel I could, or should, have.  Below is a final tally of my efforts.

Cash on Hand: $106.33

Inventory: (365) 2007 Bowman Draft MICHAEL TAYLOR RC’s

I thought the Taylor RC’s would fly off of the shelves this spring, especially following his trade to the A’s.  However, Taylor has struggled this season with injuries and diminished offensive production.  Still the Taylors sit in my eBay store at $1.00 each and I do believe they will fetch this price at some point.  If they do, the bounty received for them will nearly quadruple the 27 cents per card that I paid for them.

I want to do this project again and commit a full 365 days to it.  I have a Benjamin to spend and have already purchased some cards to get the ball rolling.  Here we go!

Purchases:

2008 Donruss Threads CHRIS CARTER Auto (#/499)—$18.94

• Carter’s bat has swung and missed more than I would have liked to see so far, but he does have 14 HR’s and 45 RBI.  Sacramento’s entire roster has underperformed to this point, but I think that the summer sun will heat up some bats.  Carter has the ability to put up crooked numbers in bunches and the A’s are desperate for Carter and fellow River Cat Michael Taylor to develop and provide a much needed boost to their lineup. 

2008 Donruss Threads DESMOND JENNINGS Auto (#/749)—$18.69

2007 Bowman Chrome DESMOND JENNINGS Refractor (#/500)—$11.59

2007 Bowman Chrome DESMOND JENNINGS Blue Refractor (#/150)—$25.97

2007 Bowman’s Best Blue DESMOND JENNINGS (#/99)—$7.50

• Notice a theme here?  This is solely an effort to take advantage of a big market correction for Jennings’ cards.  He has not lived up to his lofty expectations this season, but the skill set and talent is there to make up for lost time rapidly.  He’s gotten off to a great start for the month of June with a .294 BA, 6 RBI 3 SB and 7 runs scored through his first eight games.  I think this could be a big turning point in Jennings’ season as long as he can shake the injury bug.  His blue refractors were selling for $50 each prior to the start of the season, so receiving one at half that is a nice coup.  The Bowman’s Best blue cards are difficult finds and should fetch a nice price of $25+ in the eBay store.

2008 Bowman Chrome CARLOS SANTANA (x5)—$12.50

• $2.50 a piece for a player making his MLB debut today should fetch a nice return in short time.   I would expect to net at least twice this amount within the next couple of weeks that can then be allocated to future purchases. 

2007 Bowman Draft and Gold MICHAEL TAYLOR lot (x30)—S5.05

• True he’s been struggling this year.  True, I have over 500 of his RC’s in my inventory right now.  However, I floated out a late auction bid on this lot and, low and behold, came up as the winner.  This lot contains 21 of his base RC’s and 9 of his gold RC’s.  A per card cost of under 17 cents a card is an even better score than my huge 365 card purchase last year.  Taylor will be up at some point this season (probably September) and there is just too much talent there, both tangible and intangible, to ignore.  Like Jennings, the market for Taylor’s cards is in a big correction period right now, making it an opportune time for savvy collectors to reap some excellent bargains.

That flurry of purchases comes to a total of $92.74. That leaves us $7.26 left to spend.  What do you think of these purchases?  Let your voice be heard in the comment section.  Have advice?  I can always use that as well

Carlos Santana MLB Debut Set For Friday

Posted by Jeremy on under Hot Prospect Profile, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

You can't keep a good man down

Cleveland Indians blue chip catching prospect Carlos Santana bid the minor leagues farewell in style last night, going 3-4 with his 13th HR, 3 RBI and 3 runs scored.  This fine performance raised his season totals to .317/.447/.597 with 51 RBI 39 runs scored and an impressive 45 BB/39 K ratio.  The Indians were rumored to keep Santana at AAA Columbus until the end of this month or early July so that he could continue to work on his defense but, with the Indians’ continued struggles and the limited upside of rookie catcher Lou Marson, the reasons to keep Santana down seem to have diminished completely.  His impact in that lineup will be immediate and significant.  Santana has excellent power, above average athleticism, and better plate discipline than anyone on the Indians’ roster. 

The current eBay market for Santana’s cards is not much different than it was when I wrote about him a few days ago.  His autographed cards in the 2008 Bowman Sterling and 2009 Bowman Chrome sets sell for $40-45 right now and his first year non-autographed cards in the 2008 Bowman Chrome set sell for about $2.50-3.00 each.  I maintain that the non-autographed cards could approach the $8-10 range if Santana can hit right out of the gate.   There is no reason to think that he won’t do this, which makes this card a very good short term speculative buy.

Cleveland has a superstar switch-hitting catcher once again and that, at long last, finally gives Indians fans something to cheer about.

Current Carlos Santana eBay Auctions:

Trade Rumor: Cliff Lee Pursued By the Yankees

Posted by Jeremy on June 10, 2010 under MLB Trade Analysis | Be the First to Comment

Pinstripes by August?

The Seattle Mariners had great expectations entering the 2010 season.  After additions of Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Brandon League, and Casey Kotchman to their roster, an A.L. West crown seemed to be an inevitability.  Now just ten days into the month of June, the M’s sit at the bottom of the division with a 23-36 record and the hope of climbing back into contention ebbs with each series loss. 

Sensing blood in the water, the New York Yankees are the most recent team to inquire about the services of Cliff Lee.  Fox Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal has reported that the M’s are listening and would require one of the Yankees’ blue chip catching prospects, Jesus Montero or Austin Romine, and AAA shortstop Eduardo Nunez in the package.  Zdurencik is notoriously inclined to opt for players with with defensive prowess over offensive upside, which would make Romine the more appealing backstop.  If so, it would seem that another player would need to be included to make the deal work.  Potentially, that could be an arm, like RHP’s Zach McAllister, Mark Melancon, Hector Noesi, or Andrew Brackman, or it could be a corner infield power bat like Brandon Laird or Juan Miranda.

A trade to the Yankees is not an imminent certainty.  Offseason acquisitions of Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez have depleted this organization of a considerable amount of depth, plus Phil Hughes’ emergence as a future ace, coupled with agelessness of Andy Pettite, may prompt the Yankees to be more inclined to allow another team to purchase Lee as a rental before making a full-fledged pitch for him in the offseason.

One of those other teams, already to have inquired about Lee, could be the L.A. Dodgers.  Adding Lee to the top of a rotation that already features talented youngsters Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley would provide a much needed boost in what is shaping up to be a fiercely competitive N.L. West race.  The Dodgers have prospects, SS Dee Gordon, 1B/OF Andrew Lambo, OF Kyle Russell, and RHP’s Chris Withrow, James McDonald, and Ethan Martin, that could make a nice compensatory package.

The surprising Cincinnati Reds could also be a darkhorse team to enter fray.  Super rookie Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto have combined to go 10-1 so far, while Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have also won five games apiece.  This rotation is without an ace, though, and each starter has been the beneficiary of excellent run support from a highly potent offense.  To date, the Reds hold a one game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals atop the mediocre N.L. Central.  This lead won’t last for long unless the Reds bolster their rotation.  They have the prospects to land Lee, headlined by ‘08 1st round pick Yonder Alonso.  Other appealing position players include 3B Juan Francisco, 1B/3B Todd Frazier, C Devin Mesoraco, while LHP’s Matt Maloney and Travis Wood, or the unfulfilled talent Homer Bailey could also be targeted.

Market View:

Despite his solid pitching performances, there isn’t a great deal of movement in Cliff Lee’s 2002 cards right now as the Mariners are completely off of the MLB radar right now.  A trade to the Yankees would surely change that immediately.  Limited data gathered from some of the 2002 Donruss products show a current market value of $38-42 for his autographed RC’s and $2-3 per card prices for his various ‘02 non-auto RC’s.   Other cards moving on the market right now are his array of autographed cards from ‘03-present.  These can be found at prices below $6 to more than $20, depending on brand and rarity.

The autos seem like a solid value to me at this time.  Even if he doesn’t end up with the Yankees this season, the probability of Lee wearing pinstripes by next year is quite high. The market for all Yankees cards has historically been a strong one, especially for superstar players.  Lee’s intense work ethic, blend of control and stuff, and his ability to elevate his game in clutch situations will endear him to Bronx fans and the market for his stuff will respond with an emphatic boom.  

Other Beneficiaries:

The trade will also have a market effect on the prospects that the Mariners glean from the deal.  The M’s will surely be selecting players that fit into their near future plans, which should expedite their MLB debuts and/or definitive roles.  Additionally, the market for Seattle Mariners cards has been a strong one, even in down seasons, due to a strong fan base both domestically and abroad.  Despite an unforseen letdown this season, Zdurencik has in short order rebuilt a mediocre farm system into a promising pool of future major league talent.  That bodes well for the team’s long term prognosis and for the continued marketability of their players.

Players most likely to benefit from a move to Seattle:

• Homer Bailey–Pitcher-friendly Safeco Field could mitigate flyball tendencies
• Yonder Alonso–Casey Kotchman is no Joey Votto
• Austin Romine–Montero hasn’t hung up the catcher’s gear quite yet
• Zach McAllister–M’s fans like Doug Fister?  McAllister is a younger version
• Andrew Lambo–Lefty power bat has no role in L.A.’s OF log jam

The Lee bidding sesaon is just underway and there is certain to be more activity in the following weeks.   Have a trade scenerio or an opinion on the market effect this move will have?  Leave a comment below.

Stephen Strasburg: A Day After “The Debut”

Posted by Jeremy on June 9, 2010 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

What would this sell for now?

The most eagerly anticipated debut in MLB history has happened and, by universal accord, its author met the hype and pumped 98 MPH gas past it. In front of a highly energized, standing room only home crowd, Washington Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg used 94 pitches to punch out 14 Pittsburgh Pirates in just seven innings of work. He didn’t issue a walk, and a two run homerun on a diving 91 MPH changeup by Delwyn Young, provided the only blemish on what seems to be a historic start. 

Just days ago, I wrote an entry examining the eBay market for some of Strasburg’s cards. I also gave some projections on what I thought would happen following a strong debut. 

Card Description                  Market on 6/7         Market on 6/9              +/-       

•2008-09 UD USA #25             $65.00-70.00           $65.00-70.00                +0%
•2010 Bowman                           $7.50-10.00               $25.00-30.00                +200-233%
•2010 Bowman Top 100         $4.00-5.00                 $12.00-15.00                 +200%
•2010 Bowman Chrome          $25.00-30.00           $45.00-50.00                +67-80%
•2010 Bowman Auto                $425.00-450.00      $500.00-550.00          +11-22% 

**Pardon the misaligned numbers, the site refuses to accept my edited formating**

Here’s what I wrote in my initial market projection: 

“It doesn’t take much analysis to come to the conclusion that Strasburg’s various 2010 products are at or very near their apexes.  With expectations this high, it would take a statline comparable to Ubaldo Jimenez’s numbers this year to escalate the market values of his cards any further.  Regardless, there is some room for growth in the Bowman base card and even in the Chrome card.  Additionally, he has a “Top 100 Prospects” insert in the ‘10 Bowman set that can be attained for $4-5 right now. ” 

True, my market analysis was a bit conservative…but, really……a 14 K performance in his debut was even better than the Baseball Tonight bunch could have dreamed.  Notice from the numbers above that I was indeed correct in projecting the best value picks to be his Bowman base card and his Top 100 prospects insert.  Each one of those tripled in value in the hours following the game before simmering a bit as the online supply increased.  Also note that the Upper Deck Team USA cards did not change in value.  Much of this is due to the fact that only two were sold at the time that I wrote this article.    

Where do we go from here?  It seems that an encore performance is going to be a difficult feat.  Then again, his next start is against the Cleveland Indians, who may have an even more anemic offense than the Pirates.  Still, anything short of a no-hitter won’t provide the profound market punch that last night’s memorable debut offered. 

If you have Strasburg’s cards as investments, the time to sell was last night and is now.  If you are looking to buy him as an investment, wait for him to get knocked around for a start or two (it’ll happen…right?) and then check in with the market at that time.  The other option is to keep tuning in to this blog and join me under the radar as we sift for hidden gems.  

Current Stephen Strasburg eBay Auctions: 

Prospect Update: Desmond Jennings Tampa Bay Rays OF

Posted by Jeremy on June 8, 2010 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

Getting back on track

 2009 was a spectacular rebound season for the Tampa Bay Rays’ top prospect as he posted an impressive line of .315/401/.487  with 11 HR 62 RBI 31 doubles and 92 runs scored at both AA Montgomery and AAA Durham.  With a 67 BB/67 K ratio and 52 SB in 59 attempts, the stars seemed to be perfectly aligned for Jennings to firmly entrench himself atop the Rays’ opening day lineup.

An unfortunate wrist injury sustained while diving for a ball in a spring training game altered those plans, at least temporarily.  The injury, while not considered to be major, forced Jennings to miss the remainder of the Grapefruit League.  Erstwhile, utility players Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac seized the opportunity to smack their way onto the Rays’ 25 man roster, bumping a rehabbing Jennings to AAA Durham for more seasoning. 

That injury, along with a balky left shoulder seems to be playing a detrimental role in the young outfielder’s 2010 performance.  After missing most of April, Jennings returned to hit just .235 over the final week and a meager .247 for the month of May and a .240 showing through the first handful of games in June.  The stolen bases continue to be a bright spot (14/15 in 36 games), but the added power dimension that he showed from last year has yet to manifest itself in the new season.  In 2009, Jennings rapped out 52 extra-base hits for a slugging percentage of .488.  This year, Jennings has yet to hit a homerun or a triple and has doubled just eight times for an SLG of just .311.  Additionally, the 23 year old is not drawing walks or making contact with the frequency he did last season.

Current eBay Market Value of Key Desmond Jennings Cards

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects—$2.00-3.00
• 2007 Bowman Sterling—————-$3.00-4.50
• 2008 Donruss Threads Auto———$20.00-25.00

The market has shown a definitive drop in demand for Jennings’ first years Bowman cards and his first autos in the ‘08 Donruss Threads set.  March prices for Jennings’ cards were nearly double these amounts across the board and even the non-chrome base cards were selling in the $1.50-2.00 range regularly.  Naturally there is some trepidation being felt by prospectors as Jennings has once again missed time due to injury and is earning the much dreaded “talented but tender” moniker.  An added component to this market correction is that the Rays are playing so well right now, that the rumors of a possible mid-season Carl Crawford trade have quieted down.  Jennings was and still is, slated to be Crawford’s future replacement, but that event may not happen until 2011.  Despite the likely full season presence of Crawford, Jennings should, barring injury, make his debut sometime in August or September.    

That’s just fine by me.  The longer that Jennings stays at AAA, the better the opportunities to purchase his RC’s at low market values.   I do believe that Jennings will start to hit again like an elite top of the order prospect, and I do think that he will re-establish some of the XBH power he aptly demonstrated last year.   Jennings has demonstrated in multiple seasons a skill set and level of athleticism that is at or near the top of baseball.  The only question that remains is his ability to stay healthy enough to unleash it at the major league level.  I remain optimistic that this will happen at somepoint this season as the Rays are still in the pennant chase, again, likely in August or at September’s roster expansion.

Once he does arrive, he should perform well enough for the masses to avert their collective gaze from the brilliance of Strasburg, Stanton, and Harper and, once again, be acquainted with an old friend.

Current Desmond Jennings eBay Auctions:

Stephen Strasburg To Make MLB Debut Tuesday

Posted by Jeremy on June 7, 2010 under Market Watch | 2 Comments to Read

The sky may not even be the limit

Just one year and one day after being selected with the first overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft, Washington Nationals RHP Steven Strasburg will make his major league debut at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Strasburg has been nothing short of majestic this season, breezing through his AA and AAA stops with a combined 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA and 13 BB/65 K’s in just 55 innings of work.   Furthermore his other peripheries, most notably his 2.06 GO/FO ratio and .156 BAA demonstrates that his dominance is far more than strikeout related.

The ESPN hype machine has been all systems “go” for Strasburg since spring training this year and the national hype that his 2010 Bowman Chrome Superfractor received has propelled him to legendary status before ever toeing the rubber at Nationals Park.  This noteriety has only had a trampoline-like effect on his various 2009 and 2010 products.

eBay Market Activity for Key Stephen Strasburg Cards:

• 2008-09 UD USA #21—$65-70
• 2010 Bowman————$7.50-10.00
• 2010 Bowman Chrome–$25-30
• 2010 Bowman Auto—–$425-450

It doesn’t take much analysis to come to the conclusion that Strasburg’s various 2010 products are at or very near their apexes.  With expectations this high, it would take a statline comparable to Ubaldo Jimenez’s numbers this year to escalate the market values of his cards any further.  Regardless, there is some room for growth in the Bowman base card and even in the Chrome card.  Additionally, he has a “Top 100 Prospects” insert in the ‘10 Bowman set that can be attained for $4-5 right now. 

Those of you who have read my blog in the past know my theories on snagging lower priced base or chrome cards of elite prospects.  The casual collectors or team fans, and there are many out there, gravitate toward the lower cost/higher supply cards in order to add a favorite player to their collections.  This brand of eBay buyer is often less concerned with price optimization and will opt to grab the first available card that they see.  Multiply that several time and voila!  An upward market trend is born.

While there is some room for growth in Strasburg’s lower end stuff, I remain hesitant to enter the fray myself.  I recall another much ballyhooed debut of a tall, hard throwing righthander with perfect mechanics who would revolutionize the game of baseball forevermore.  While I don’t consider Strasburg to be the next Mark Prior, I will choose to direct my hard earned prospecting dollars to a target a little further below the radar.

Current Stephen Strasburg eBay Auctions:

Michael Stanton Set to Make MLB Debut Tuesday

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Making upper decks relevant again

It’s official.  Michael Stanton,  Baseball America’s #3 rated prospect for 2010, is set to make his MLB debut Tuesday June 8th at Philadelphia.  To make room for the 6-5 235 lb. slugger, the Florida Marlins designated Mike Lamb for assignment.  The Marlins are fresh off of a disappointing three game series sweep by the New York Mets and, with both Cameron Maybin and Chris Coghlan struggling mightly, are in desperate need of an infusion of production.

Stanton can deliver that and then some.  The 20 year old outfielder is making the jump from AA Carolina where he tore the cover off of the ball, hitting an MiLB best 21 HR and 52 RBI in his first 52 games.  The key additive to Stanton’s offensive game this year has been his enhanced plate disicpline (44 BB/53 K) and continued progress in driving the ball to all fields. 

The expectations for Stanton to perform well out of the gate are staggering.  Prior to the 2o1o season, Stanton and Atlanta Brave superstar Jason Heyward were widely regarded as the two best hitting prospects in baseball.  Since then, Heyward has quite adeptively become a household name this season and is in line to win the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year award in landslide fashion.  What can we expect out of Stanton?  Comparatively, Heyward has a reputation for being more disciplined at the plate and is more of a contact hitter than Heyward, but Stanton’s strides this season in that department should not go unnoticed.  Heyward’s bat speed is nothing short of awe inspiring, but no one can match Stanton’s prodigious power.  If you recall, earlier this season the young Marlin prospect garnered national attention by driving a ball more than 500 feet over the centerfield scoreboard at Montomery Riverwalk Park earlier this season.

Current eBay Market for Key Michael Stanton Cards:

• 2008 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto———– $110-130
• 2008 Various Donruss Products (Autos)—$90-100
• 2008 Razor Signature Series Auto———— $30-35
• 2008 Razor Signature Series (Base Cards)–$2-3
• 2008 Donruss Elite Extra (Base Cards)——$2-3

Clearly the market is smouldering for Stanton’s autos right now and the room for exponential growth, especially with the Chrome auto, seems to be limited.  I do like the Razor autos and the non-autographed base cards as solid short term investments right now as there is sure to be quite an additional market stir once Stanton sends his first MLB dinger into orbit.  I think that Stanton will have an immediate power impact, much like Heyward did, and then will cool for a period (also like his Atlanta counterpart) as pitchers feed him a steady diet of offspeed pitches.  Don’t be surprised to see Stanton’s struggles become more prolonged than Heyward’s were.  The jump from AA to the NL East is a significant one.  Heyward had the luxury of playing a half season at AAA Gwinnett last year, which allowed for him to familiarize himself with more major league ready pitching.  Florida’s AAA affiliate, New Orleans, has not had the benefit of inserting Stanton’s name into their lineup (after watching them stink it up in Tacoma earlier this spring, they really could have used him).  Additionally, Stanton’s stint at AA Jacksonville this year is an encore performance, and last year’s 79 game showing was not without its struggles. (.231 BA  31 BB/99 K). 

While this promotion could prove to be a bit ambitious and premature for Stanton, his long term prognosis as an elite power hitter is not.   My market advice for Stanton’s cards is to sell at his first MLB hot streak and then look for buying opportunities if (and when?) he struggles.  If he falters, it won’t be forever.

Current Michael Stanton eBay Auctions:

Prospect Update: Carlos Santana–Cleveland Indians C

Posted by Jeremy on June 3, 2010 under Uncategorized | Read the First Comment

V-Mart Part Deux

April 8: 4-5 2 HR 4 RBI 2 runs scored
April 9: 2-4 1 HR 3 RBI 2 runs scored

Two games was all it took for the Columbus Clippers’ switch-hitting backstop to formally introduce himself as one of the top prospects to watch for the 2010 season. Santana continued to shine through April, hitting .303 with 5 HR 20 RBI and 13 runs scored. In May he posted even better numbers, .324 5 HR 24 RBI and 19 runs scored, leaving Indians fans and baseball card prospectors alike clamoring for his big league promotion. Cleveland has struggled out of the gate to a AL Central worst 19-32 record and the Indians’ current starting catcher, Lou Marson, has managed a measly .208 BA with 6 RBI through his first 38 games.

So why the delay? Surely much of it has to do with the Indians’ reluctance to prematurely invoke their talented catcher’s arbitration status, but a recent article in the Cleveland Plain Dealer makes the point that Santana’s defense, primarily his paltry 19% success rate in throwing out base runners, is delaying his major league debut. Santana was originally an outfielder in the Dodgers’ farm system before making the conversion to catcher in 2007. While his arm is exceptionally strong and fairly accurate, his long release is unacceptably slow.

Current eBay market for Carlos Santana’s RC’s:

• 2008 Bowman Chrome—$3.00-3.50
• 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto—$30.00-$35.00
• 2009 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto—$40.00-$45.00

My gut tells me that there is still a bit of room for these cards to appreciate.  Jason Heyward’s first year cards and second year autos sat at similar prices prior to spring training before going stratospheric in April.  I don’t think that Santana’s cards will experience the same exponential burst, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see his chrome cards hit the $8-10 range and his autos to appreciate by 50-75% given a strong offensive debut.  Long term, the 24 year old catcher looks every bit the offensive superstar that his switch-hitting predecessor Victor Martinez was and it should only be another week or two before the front office relents and ushers in the Carlos Santana era.

Current eBay Auctions of Carlos Santana RC’s