Fav-5 Blossoming Major League Stars

Posted by Jeremy on June 30, 2008 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

I got to thinking today about players that have graduated from being prospects into bonafide major league players.  Some prospects vault directly into superstardom without many growing pains at the major league level.  Others shine brightly for a brief period before fizzling out into baseball card anonymity.  I have compiled a list of 5 players that I believe are just beginning to turn the corner as they vault their way into baseball stardom. I focused my efforts on players that have had at least 500 AB’s at the major league level or 150 IP.  They are presented in no particular order.

1.) ZACK GREINKE

• Greinke made a nice comeback last season as a starter and reliever after missing virtually all of 2006 with personal issues.  This season, Grienke has been solid as the stopper for a young Royals team that is still learning how to win.  Grienke has a 92-95 MPH heater with good action and a sharp slider and changeup.  Grienke doesn’t turn 25 until after this season and with Daniel Cortes and Luke Hochevar set to join the rotation alongside Gil Meche and Brian Bannister, it is reasonable to think that the Royals will be a team to watch within the next season or two.  This bode’s well for Greinke’s RC’s which can be found in the 2002 Bowman Chrome and Draft Picks set that are currently selling on Ebay for $2-2.50 each.  He also has an XRC Auto in the underrated UD Prospect Premieres set that sells for $15-20.  Although he is a pitcher and is subject to unpredictible progress, I would not be surprised to see Greinke become a 18-20 game winner soon.

RICKIE WEEKS

• Weeks has not turned into the superstar that the Brewers and everyone else thought he would when he was the 2nd pick of the 2003 MLB Draft.  Weeks has battled strikeouts and inconsistencies over his 3 year career.  This season, Weeks is hitting an abysmal .213 with 7 HR 22 RBI and 11 SB.  Rickie will turn 26 at the end of this season and will be entering the prime years of his career.  It remains to be seen as to whether or not Weeks will take that monumental step into superstardom that he once seemed to be destined to take.  Weeks’ best RC’s are autographed versions in the 2003 Bowman Chrome Draft and SPX sets.  The chromes sell for $20-22.50 and the SPX cards go for double that.  I am encouraged by Weeks’ cutdown in strikeouts this year, he is on pace to score 100 runs for the second consecutive year while walking a career high 65 times.  The 2003 Bowman Chrome Draft set has seen some serious market love over the years like Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Brandon Wood, Ryan Howard, and Jon Papelbon.  Why can’t a post-hype prospect like Rickie Weeks be the next big offering from that set?

JEREMY HERMIDA

• Hermida enjoyed a successful first full season in 2007 hitting .296 with 18 HR and 63 RBI.  Hermida has had injury bugaboos over the last couple of season which has hampered his power production and market exposure.  This season Jeremy is hitting .271 with 8 HR and 38 RBI, but his strikeout rate is a bit of a concern to me (69 K’s in 71 games).  Hermida plays in a weak collector’s market and is not eligible to be a free agent until 2012.  However, I think that the Marlins will be in the playoff hunt all season and Hermida is going to be a key cog in that offense.  Jeremy’s best cards, like Zack Greinke, can be found in the 2002 Bowman Chrome Draft and he also has and autographed XRC in the UD Prospect Premeires set.  The chromes sell for $3-4 each and the Prospect Premeires auto sells for $22-25.  At age 24, Hermida has several years to develop into the hitting savant that he profiled to be as a teen.

4.) COREY HART

• Hart broke out in his first full season with the Brew Crew hitting .295 with 24 HR 81 RBI and 23 SB.  Hart is 6-6 and 220 lbs, plays all 3 outfield positions and, at 25 years old is ready to enter the prime of his career.  Even more intriguing is the fact that Hart will be a free agent at the end of this season.  Will the Brewers resign him?  My gut tells me no, as they will sew more money into long term deals for Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and J.J. Hardy while finding room for the bevy of prospects at AA like Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, Michael Brantley and Cole Gillespie.  If Hart signs a free agent deal with another team, it would seem likely that it will be in a more media-friendly market than Milwaukee.  This bodes well for his value on the open market.  Currently, Hart has his only first year cards in the 2002 Bowman and Chrome DP sets.  His regular chromes sell for between $2-3 each online with refractors selling at $12-15 each.  I think Hart will be wearing a different uniform by next season and he is on the cusp of having a 30/30 season.

5.) CARLOS QUENTIN

• Ok, so Quentin has found his way onto the radar with a major power surge on the south side of Chicago.  However, collectors haven’t warmed to his cards as much as I think they will.  Quentin just hit his 19th HR last night and 40 dingers is not out of the question for this former 1st rounder.  Additionally, he has cut down his strikeouts and increased his walk numbers (41BB/44 K).  Injuries are always a concern with Quentin as his first few seasons in the major leagues have been filled with them.  He is healthy now and in the American League where he can DH if he is a little dinged up.  Quentin has several 2004 RC’s with autographs in Bowman Sterling and Topps Chrome.  Each of these autos sell in the $20-22.50 range, which, to me, seems low for someone who could potentially be the AL homerun leader as soon as this season!  His Bowman Chrome cards sell for $3-4 each.  Quentin, like many of these other fine players, turns 26 near the end of this season and is primed to put up big numbers for the next 7-10 years.

Here are my 5.  Which 5 do you think will be superstars within the next season?  Try to use my afore mentioned specifications of 500 AB or 150 IP at the big league level.

Fav-5 Things That Need to Vacate the Baseball Card Premises

Posted by Jeremy on June 29, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Here’s a change up from the normal daily minor league reports. While I do believe the baseball card market is in good health, there are trends and products in the market that need to be phased out altogether.

1. The confusion of the “RC logo”

• The designation of the Rookie Card logo, placed on post-2005 products, was designated with the stated intent of clearing up the confusion felt by newer and younger collectors as to what is “officially” a player’s true rookie card.  Since this has begun, however, players that have already had cards in numerous sets and years have had cards that have been tabbed with the RC logo.  In my mind, this only adds to the confusion, and misleads those less experienced collectors into believing that they do “in fact” have a player’s true rookie card.  The fact remains that no matter how you present it, a player’s RC, in the minds of many collectors is, in fact, the player’s 1st issued card.  Maybe the who “Rookie Card” moniker needs to be scrapped in favor of “1st year card” or some other simple designation.

2.) The Proliferation of the Parallels

• I love refractors and serial numbers just as much as the next person, but the inundation of multi-tiered parallels (Topps Co-Signers and Milestones and Moments being the worst) is making a mockery of this industry.  The concept of the serial numbered card is superb when used in moderation.  The thought of there being 165 variations of an Alex Rodriguez card within a set each serial numbered to #165 is tedious overkill defined.  If a parallel within a set does not have a significant increase in value or demand over its base set peers, it should be banished from the set F-O-R-E-V-E-R (just watched The Sandlot with my boy). 

3.) Redemptions?????

• What a buzz kill to open a box to find that your prize is a plain text card stating that you received a redemption ticket for a J.R. Towles autograph.  Yippee!!! Strike up the band and parade through the streets…after you fish out a pen, develop writer’s cramp scrawling your name, address,phone number, work phone, social security number, pin number of your debit card, and waist and inseam measurements within lines the width of a toothpick.  Oh, and don’t forget that stamp…wait, you’re out of stamps!  Gotta go to the post office and buy a book of stamps because they don’t sell them in singles anymore (not in my town anyway).  Then you have to scrawl out the address of the card manufacturer with your off hand (because you are still cramped in your writing hand) on an envelope you hopefully have, praying the whole time that it will be legible enough for the postman to read.  A paper cut on the tongue and jog to the mailbox later and you are ready to receive your card.  Wait…if you read in the fine print you would notice that your card will take another 6-8 weeks to arrive, regardless of the fact that it takes 2-3 days for a package to reach virtually any cross-country destination.  Ah, a happy day is the day that your much awaited Albert Pujols redemption auto arrives in its nifty cardboard shipping box.  As you tear it open with childish delight, you are subjegated to the last proverbial kick in the chonies that the redemption boot offers; an apologetic letter from XYZ card company stating that your Pujols auto is out of stock, but an equally exciting auto has been issued in its place.  As you peek through the plastic hard case, you discover that Richie Sexson is not equally exciting and neither is the concept of the redemption card.

4.) Sticker Autos

• Bold silver stickers obliterating the bottom 1/4 of a card is nearly as tacky as the sometimes smudged, sometimes cut-off sharpie autograph that graces it.  True, clear plastic stickers have done wonders to improve the visual appeal of the card, but it still compromises the pure allure of knowing that your card was held, signed, and sometimes hand numbered by the player featured on it.  For many of us, that morsel of child-like magic is enough sustenance to keep our passion for all things baseball alive.

5.) Dime-sized Mono-color Jersey Swatches

• First of all, virtually anyone who owns a game-worn jersey from a major leaguer would tell you that jersey swatches, in general, stink.  I mean, have you ever tried to wear a jersey swatch?  The worst of these fingertip-sized pieces of polyester are the ones that are one color and ambiguous as to what part of the jersey it, at one time, belonged.  The card manufacturers’ intent with the jersey card was initially good.  The widescale distribution of bits of player uniforms evoked similar sentimental feelings that on card autographs have as many collectors (myself included) thought “Wow, I have a piece of a jersey worn in an actual MLB game!”  However, much like the error card era of the late 80’s and early 90’s and the insert craze of the early to mid 90’s, the overload of chinsy white, gray, or black jersey swatches with infinite variations (remember my distaste for parallel overkill?) has sapped the sentimentality of the game worn relics.  Even patch cards are ridiculous if you cant tell what part of the patch you have.  Also, what good is a patch if you only have the bottom right hand corner of it?  These scraps are no longer souvenirs, they are the rubble and chaff of a tired marketing campaign that needs to be revamped or scratched altogether. 

OK, there are my 5.  Feel free to agree, disagree or contribute some of your own.  As always, your imput is always welcomed as it is the lifeblood of this blog…or it will be…someday…

The sun is warm and my boy has a game tomorrow.  Sounds like the perfect recipe for baseball practice!

6/26 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on June 28, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Thursday’s AAA games offered an interesting mix of old and new prospect performances…

Wes Bankston

• 2-4 HR(12) 5 RBI—.263 12 HR 44 RBI (I thought this guy would be a star hitter in ‘02)

Jed Lowrie

• 1-5 2B R 2RBI—He goes as Lu-goes

Chris Carter

• 2-2 R 2B 2BB—Needs to DH for someone other than the BoSox

David Pauley

• 7IP 4H 2BB 9K (W)—8-0 3.38 ERA last 10 games

Phillip Humber

• 5IP 5H 2BB 6K (W)—4-6 5.19 47K/69IP (Another over-hyped Rice pitcher)

Dallas McPherson

• 3-4 HR(26) 3 RBI BB–Hit his 27 HR on Friday night, now at 7 straight games!

Jai Miller

• 3-4 2 HR(13) 3 RBI 2 SB(12)—Caustic blend of athleticism and attitude

Shane Robinson

• 4-5 2B HR(3) 3 RBI—.342 31 RBI over AA & AAA (needs more power to be corner OF)

Bryan Anderson

• 2-3 2R HR(3) 3 RBI—.342 31 RBI over AA and AAA (reminds me of Joe Mauer w/o wheels)

Jaime Garcia

• 6.2IP 7H 3ER 10K (W)—7-5 3.34 ERA 93K/94IP over two levels (nice bounce back season)

Sean Rodriguez

• 1-3 HR(8) 3 RBI 2R BB—Wasn’t ready for his promotion, let him regain his plate discipline and confidence at AAA

Wladimir Balentien

• 2-4 HR(8) 3 RBI 2R BB—See Sean Rodriguez comments

Ian Stewart

• 3-5 HR(13) RBI 2B—.287 47 RBI .631 SLG (power played well at Coors, plate discipline did not)

Nick Hundley

• 2-5 HR(11) 3 RBI—My under the radar Padres prospect has not improved at the dish, but power is there.

BUY/SELL Analysis

Well of course we have to talk about Dallas McPherson.  Reborn within the Florida Marlins’ system, McPherson has gone on a power binge that has reopened the eyes of collectors and baseball enthusiasts alike.  Hitting 8 HR in his last 10 games, it is surprising that the Marlins have not given him a looksie yet.  If he was with an American League team, it would seem reasonable to expect that he would have already received some DH at bats already.  McPherson will get a look this summer and should produce some nice power numbers with the rest of the mashers in Florida.  McPherson has 1st year cards in the 2002 Bowman Draft and Chrome sets.  It is hard to gather a true market for his cards right now, as there is not a great supply available on Ebay right now.  I would venture to say that chromes can be attained for $2-3 each with refractors going for about $10.

Market Advice: McPherson is really hot right now, but he still punches out to the tune of about 1.2 times per game.  Regardless, I do not see Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms being long term solutions at 3B and Florida seems to be in a season-long fight for an NL post season berth, which would garner much needed national exposure for Florida’s bevy of talent.  Getting a couple of his chromes at $2-3 each are solid BUY cards.  If you have some of these in your inventory already, keep your eye on the market and be prepared to SELL if they reach the $6-8 range.

6/26 AA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today, Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Lots of great performances by super prospects!  Here’s the rundown…

Travis Snider

• 3-6 HR(15) 3 RBI 3 R—Adjusting well at AA but has K’ed 103 times!

David Hernandez

• 6.1 IP 2H 2ER 2BB 9K (W)—96 K’s thusfar with opponents hitting only .211 against him

George Kontos

• 5 IP 4H ER BB 7K (L)—3rd straight quality start but can’t win games (3-7)

Kris Johnson

• 6 IP 2H 2BB 4K (W)—6-3 3.32 ERA 59K/89IP

Jeremy Slayden

• 3-3 2B BB—.291 8 HR 53 RBI

Alcides Escobar

• 3-6 HR(7) 3 RBI 3R 2B—.326 50 RBI 111 Hits 21 SB

Mat Gamel

• 1-3 2B RBI 3BB—.371 118 Hits 15 HR 68 RBI .632 SLG

Michael Brantley

• 2-3 R SB(25)—Multiple hits in 4 of last 5 games

Matt LaPorta

• 2-4 2 2B 2 RBI BB—.297 19 HR 61 RBI .601 SLG

Jordan Schafer

• 2-3 R BB SB(5)—.378 10 RBI 10 R 10 BB last 10 games

David Price

• 6IP 4H 2ER 4BB 7K (W)—Solid 1st outing at AA now 5-0 on the season

Tyler Colvin

• 3-4 3B 2 RBI R—Back to back solid outings in a season that has been a struggle for Colvin

Matt Mangini

• 2-4 2B 3 RBI—Starting to get acclimated at AA after struggling early

Allen Craig

• 2-4 2B RBI R BB—.273 11 HR 47 RBI

Adam Ottovino

• 6IP 1H BB 5K—1st good outing in quite a while

Aaron Cunningham

• 3-4 R 2B—.283 5 HR 20 RBI 8 SB

Brett Anderson

• 6IP 3H 2ER 12K—Stellar AA debut, Anderson seems to have put his early struggles behind him

BUY/SELL Analysis

Kris Johnson was a supplimental 1st round pick in 2006 out of Witchita State.  He suffered an elbow injury and had Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.  Johnson struggled a bit coming back last year, but has pitched well at AA.  While he has not dominated, .282 BAA, 38 BB, Johnson has found a way to win.  Johnson has good life on his fastball which can reach the mid-90’s, but his secondary pitches need some polish.  Johnson has autographed first year cards in the 2006 Bowman Draft and Chrome and Bowman Sterling.  The chrome autos sell for about $7-10 each and the Sterlings sell for about $6-8. 

Market Advice: The fact that Johnson is a Red Sox prospect makes him more attractive than if he was a Pirates or Marlins prospect.  I am having a hard time gauging where Johnson fits in, but the fact remains that he is a raw, left-handed prospect that throws in the low to mid 90’s.  He has to develop his secondary pitches or else he will be a lefty middle reliever, which is the equivalent of death as a baseball card prospect.  Tentatively, I would BUY a chrome auto and watch his development closely. Now that Masterson and Buchholz have shown their faces at Fenway, Johnson trails only Michael Bowden as Boston’s top minor league pitching prospects.

Alcides Escobar has been one of many Huntsville Stars prospects that has terrorized AA pitching this season.  In his previous 4 minor league seasons, Escobar accumulated just 7 HR in 1,595 AB.  This season, Escobar has 7 HR in just 341 AB.  Escobar has always been an above average SS, and now that his hitting seems to be on the upswing, it is just a matter of time before he is playing in Miller Park.  Escobar has 1st year cards in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects set which are selling at $2 each. 

Market Advice: Escobar is never going to be a prolific power hitter, but he has an opportunity to be a special top of the order hitter in a offense-friendly ballpark.  At $2 each, it seems that Escobar is a solid BUY, and though he likely will not replicate these current numbers at the major league level, he still should receive a nice bump in value once he makes it to The Show.

6/26 High A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on June 27, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

It’s hard to sit and write when it is sunny and 75 degrees outside.  However, here are the reports from last night’s High A slate of games.

Josh Reddick

• 2-5 2B 3 RBI—.345 12 HR 55 RBI (This guy’s cards are going to blow up when they debut!)

Chih-Hsien Chiang

• 3-4 2B 2 RBI—.283 6 HR 38 RBI

Peter Bourjos

• 4-5 HR(3) 3 RBI 2 R—.340 3 HR 30 RBI 37/39 SB Attempts

Henry Rodriguez

• 5.2IP 3H 1ER 3BB 7K—3rd straight quality start since moving back to Stockton (Don’t rush him A’s)

Nick Weglarz

• 2-5 HR(7) RBI 2R—.268 30 RBI 51BB/53K (Power has been disappointing this year)

Jared Goedert

• 1-2 HR(7) RBI 2BB—.279 42 RBI

P.J. Phillips

• 2-3 HR(3) 2 RBI 2R 2 SB(19)—.248 3 HR 32 RBI (Brandon Phillips’ younger brother)

Matt Wieters

• 2-4 HR(15) 2B 2 RBI BB—.345 40 RBI 44BB/49K (Promote this guy already!)

Joe Dickerson

• 2-4 3B R RBI—.319 5 HR 44 RBI 23 SB (Keep watch for his first cards)

Jamie Romak

• 1-3 HR(12) RBI 2R—.291 34 RBI .577 SLG

Todd Frazier

• 4-5 2B RBI—Will he make another jump this season to AA?

BUY/SELL Analysis

OK, how ’bout a couple of 2007 high draftees?  Matt Wieters, the 5th pick of the draft and recipient of a Boras induced $6 million bonus, has done everything this season to rationalize the Orioles’ sizeable investment in him.  With prodigious power from both sides of the plate and a massive 6-5 230 lb. frame.  Wieters is a masher in the making.  Wieters is no slouch behind the plate either, with a plus plus arm and superb receiving skills.  Having proven himself completely at High A, I would expect Wieters to get a promotion to AA Bowie sooner rather than later.  Matt Weiters has 1st year autographed cards in 2007 Elite Extra (#ed to 799).  Be prepared to pay out the nose for these babies, as his regular issue cards sell for about $75-80 each.  He also has autographed patch cards in that series that sell for a more reasonable $55-60.

Market Advice: That’s a whole lot of cake to pay for a star player at High A.  If you are blessed enough to have one of the Elite Extra autos in your possession, SELL!  That chunk of change could be spent much more effectively on a variety of high upside, lower cost players who are not so prominent on collectors’ radar screens.  However, stay tuned for 2008 issues of his cards which may be more reasonably priced.

Todd Frazier was a supplimental 1st round pick by the Cincinnati Reds out of Rutgers in last year’s draft.  A 6-3 215 lb slugger, his lack of footspeed and strong arm will, at some point, necessitate a move to 3rd base.  Frazier began the season in Low A Dayton where he tore the cover off of the ball to the tune of a .321 BA with 7 HR and 20 RBI.  He has continued his torrid hitting at Sarasota with a .299 avg. and 6 HR.  Frazier has raw power that could translate to 20-25 HR per season.  Frazier’s first year cards can be found in 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft, Bowman Sterling, and Elite Extra.  All are autographed versions with the Bowman Chrome Draft being the most expensive at $18-20 each.  These cards were redemptions, which always interest me, as it is never certain how many actually get redeemed.  His Sterlings sell for about $10-13 each and his Elite Extras (#’ed to 774) sell for about the same as the Sterlings.

Market Advice:  These are solid BUY cards.  Frazier is likely two seasons away from Cincinnati and I am interested to see how he plays at AA or, perhaps, in Arizona this fall.  I like Frazier’s offensive upside and his ability to be a solid MLB 3B.

6/26 Class A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Now that the mid-season All-Star and championship games are finished, we are back to a full slate of games. Today, I will start from Low A and work my way up.  Here are the notable performances…

Matt Dominguez

• 3-5 RBI—.339 2 HR 10 RBI last 10 games

Tommy Hickman

• 1-4 HR(8) 2 RBI BB—.220 8 HR 38 RBI 37BB/55K

Charlie Culberson

• 2-4 2R RBI—.313 HR 9 RBI last 10 games

Steffan Wilson

• 2-4 2 2B 2R—.270 14 HR 48 RBI

Zack Cozart

• 2-5 HR(9) RBI 2R—.259 22 RBI

Jamie Ortiz

• 1-2 HR(9) RBI 2BB—.275 3 HR 10 RBI last 10 games

Andrew Lambo

• 3-4 RBI R SB(2)—.286 8 HR 48 RBI

Ben Revere

• 2-4 3B R—.416 now batting 3rd for Beloit

Corey Brown

• 2-5 HR(12) 3 RBI 2B—.368 3 HR 11 RBI 4 SB last 10 games

Michael Pineda

• 8IP 4H 2ER 3BB 7K—5-3 1.43 ERA 57K/63IP

BUY/SELL Analysis

Ben Revere was a surprise 1st round high school selection by the Twins in 2007, but he proved doubters wrong by hitting .325 for the Twins in the Gulf Coast League with 21 SB.  This season at Beloit, Revere has put up astonishing numbers hitting .416 with 7 triples 29 RBI and 22 SB.  Revere has a good feel for the stike zone and is a very good defensive CF.  Although he is small (5-9 165 lb) he lashes line drives all over the field and could develop some power.  He works hard and is a confident player.  Revere has all the tools to be an exciting, game changing, top of the order hitter for the Twins within the next 2-3 seasons.  Revere has an autographed card in the 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft set and Bowman Sterling.  He also has an auto in the 2007 Elite Extra (serial #’ed to 700).  Currently, the chromes sell for $15 while his refractors sell for about $25.  The Elite Extra autos sell for about $6-8 each and the Sterlings for $9-12 each with refractors (#’ed to 199) selling in the $20-25 range.

Market Advice: Revere’s lack of power may be a turn off to many collectors, but I think that Revere will develop enough to become a superb top of the order hitter in the lines of Ichiro, Jacoby Ellsbury and Johnny Damon.  I think his cards are a super BUY at their current prices, but may even be cheaper if he earns a promotion and doesn’t quite replicate his stellar numbers.  Make no mistake, Revere is going to be an impact player in a couple of years.

Corey Brown is, perhaps, the most athletic player in the Athletics’ organization.  A supplimental 1st rounder in the 2007 draft, Brown is a somewhat raw player with superior power potential and good speed.  One major bugaboo with Brown is his proclivity to swing and miss atat pitches.  This season Brown has punched out 85 times in 73 games, while walking 36 times.  Brown profiles as a rightfielder with plus range and a plus plus arm.  He should be a 20/20 player in the next two seasons.  Brown has two cards in the Bowman Chrome Draft set.  He has an auto and a base card.  This has happened with several other prospects over the last season, like Alex Gordon and Cameron Maybin.  As case history has shown, the autos have exponentially more value, while the base cards tend to get overlooked.  Currently, Brown’s base cards sell for 50 cents to $1 each while the autos regularly are sold at $8-10.

Market Advice: Brown is a raw 22 year old prospect who has a high offensive ceiling.  I would BUY any autos you can get your hands on within the $8-10 range.  Refractors go for about $15-18 each and are solid investments as well.  Keep a close eye to Brown’s development as he advances.  I would venture to bet that the A’s want to see what this Oklahoma State product can do at Stockton this season. 

6/25 Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on June 26, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

My apologies for not posting results from Tuesday 6/24 games.  I have been a bit under the weather since my return from vacation.  Feeling better now and ready to give you Wednesday’s AA performers.

J.P. Arencibia

• 1-4 HR(16) RBI—.344 2 HR 9 RBI in 8 games at AAA Syracuse

Brett Cecil

• 5IP 5H BB 4K—3-1 3.21 ERA 49K/48IP at AAA

Trevor Crowe

• 4-5 2R 2 RBI—Multi-hit games in 6 of last 7 outings

Joshua Rodriguez

• 2-5 2 2B RBI —.263 4 HR 30 RBI (Hasn’t replicated last season’s power numbers)

Jose Tabata

• 3-4 2B 2 RBI—Has struggled at AA (.236 2 HR 31 RBI 10 SB) but still just 19 yrs. old

Tyler Colvin

• 2-5 HR(6) 3 RBI—Struggled at AA this year .230 6 HR 37 RBI

Michael Wilson

• 2-4 2 HR(18) 3 RBI—Nice repeat season @ AA (.270 18 HR 52 RBI)

Michael Brantley

• 2-4 2B 2R RBI BB SB(24)—Ignitor of superb Huntsville offense

Jordan Schafer

• 2-4 3B 3 RBI—.343 9 RBI 10 BB over last 10 games

Tommy Hanson

• 9IP 0H 3BB 14K—Best performance by a pitcher this season WOW!

BUY/SELL Analysis

Lots of fine prospects here and with his performance yesterday, Tommy Hanson seems to be the most likely candidate to cover.  Hanson began the season at Myrtle Beach making a mockery of High A hitters holding them to an anemic .115 BA and punching out 49 in just 40 innings.  Hanson earned a promotion to AA Mississippi after just 7 outings.  Hanson, before last night, has not been as dominant at AA but has compiled 6 quality starts out of 9 outings.  Hanson began the season as Atlanta’s 9th best prospect, but has outperformed the other pitchers ahead of him, Cole Rohrbaugh and Jeff Locke.  At 6-6 210 lb, Hanson still has some room to fill out and become an inning eating #2 or 3 starter by the middle or end of next season.  Hanson’s sole 1st year cards are in the 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects and Bowman Heritage sets.  Until the no-hitter, there has been very little online activity, as collectors seemingly were waiting for a performance like this to put their stuff online. 

Market Advice: Hanson is back on the radar screens of collectors, and if he follows up this performance with another dominant outing, he will jump up to the top of many prospect lists.  If you have refractors and other short prints of his cards, I would SELL, as they will be in high demand.  If you can get the chromes or heritage in bulk lots for 50-60% of Beckett, BUY a batch and wait for him to rise to the top of Atlanta’s top prospect charts.  I like Hanson as an MLB regular, but his stuff is a tick below the arms of Kershaw, Buchholz, Hellickson, and several others.

6/25 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Steven Pearce

• 3-4 2 HR(11) 2 RBI 3R—Power is starting to come around

Neil Walker

• 1-4 HR(12) RBI—.195 w/ 3 HR 6 RBI last 10 games

Francisco Lirano

• 5.1 IP 9H 5ER BB 3K (W)—Ugly win for LIriano, but control still seems to be there)

Trevor Plouffe

• 2-5 HR(4) 2B 3 RBI—1st HR since AAA promotion

Denard Span

• 3-5 2 2B 2R—.343 3 HR 14 RBI 15 SB

George Kottaras

• 2-4 2 HR(14) 2 RBI BB—.270 5 HR 9 RBI last 10

Chris Carter

• 3-4 2R 2 RBI BB—.298 16 HR 58 RBI

Clay Buchholz

• 6.2 5H ER 2BB 7K—Waiting for another opportunity to get to Fenway

BUY/SELL Analysis

Well…let’s see…I have done profiles for Pearce, Walker, Kotteras, and Buchholz already.  Let’s take a look at former top prospect and current rehabbing major leaguer Francisco Liriano.  Liriano, as we all know, is trying to come back from Tommy John surgery that obliterated his 2007 season and stymied the progress of a blossoming career.  Liriano, once tabbed as being the next Johan Santana, struggled mightily in his early season starts with Minnesota losing his first 3 starts with an 11.32 ERA and 13 BB in 10 innings.  Since his demotion, Liriano’s control has been good but he has had outings where he was hit hard.  AAA hitters are hitting .257 off of him which, on the surface, is not bad.  However, it is not indicative of the dominance that Lirano once portrayed and what collectors expect from him.  Liriano has several cards that are tabbed as RC’s, but his first year cards can be found in the 2002 Bowman and Bowman Chrome sets.  His best 2002 card is an autographed version in the Bowman’s Best set.  Expect to pay at least $50 for a Bowman’s Best auto and about $10-$15 for a Bowman Chrome version of his cards.

Market Advice: I do not believe that Lirano will ever replicate his performance from 2006.  While he still remains to be a somewhat young pitcher (24 yrs. old), there are many other younger players that have not reached their talent apexes as of yet.  If you have his cards, especially his Bowman’s Best RC’s…SELL!

6/23 Class A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on June 25, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

With the California and Carolina leagues both having the night off, here are some significant performances from the Florida State League.

Todd Frazier

• 1-3 HR(6) 2 RBI—.286 6 HR 25 RBI since his promotion to Sarasota

Dylan Owen

• 5IP 6H ER 7K—5-1 2.53 ERA 59K/57IP

Logan Morrison

• 2-5 2R BB—.500 19 Hits 11 RBI last 10 games

Scott Cousins

• 2-5 R BB—4-13 since his return from DL

Adrian Cardenas

• 2-3 2R BB SB(9)—.313 4 HR 18 RBI 23BB/32K

Edgar Garcia

• 7IP 5H 2ER BB 8K (W)—7-2 4.05 ERA 69K/73IP

BUY/SELL Analysis

Adrian Cardenas is ranked as the 2nd best prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies organization by Baseball America.  Cardenas is advertised as being a thick and strong middle infielder who has plenty power potential.  This season, he has hit very well at High A Clearwater (.319 4 HR 19 RBI).  The power has not progressed as much as I expected, but his plate discipline and average has been noteworthy given his youth.  Cardenas has 1st year cards in the 2006 Bowman products with his autographs in Bowman Chrome Draft and Bowman Sterling being the most popular.  Currently his Bowman Chrome DP autos sell for $22-26 and his Sterling autos sell for $14-16.  It will be interesting to see if he continues to play 2nd base in an organization that has the best 2B in baseball, Chase Utley.  I see Cardenas being a 3B at the major league level given his strong arm and below average range.

Market Advice: Cardenas seems to be a good value at these prices.  I would like to see his power progress and I do believe that his body is physically mature at 5-11 190 lbs.  I would BUY an auto, with the Bowman Sterling being the best values.

Low A

Brandon Waring

• 2-3 HR(14) RBI BB—.281 14 HR 44 RBI

Jarrod Parker

• 4IP 4H 1ER 2BB 7K—5-3 3.59 ERA 44K/53IP

Drew Cumberland

• 3-4 3R RBI BB—.284 HR 17 RBI 16 SB

Steven Johnson

• 7.1IP 7H 2BB 10 K (W)—9-2 2.34 ERA 57K/73IP

Chris Parmelee

• 3-5 HR(14) 3 RBI 2R—.242 48 RBI 57BB/83K

Joe Benson

• 3-5 2BB 2 2B BB SB(16)—.247 4 HR 25 RBI

Ian Gac

• 2-4 2 RBI—.303 18 HR 56 RBI (King sized 1B prospect)

Alex Cobb

• 6IP 3H ER 2BB 7K—6-4 2.03 ERA 64K/89IP

Nick Noonan

• 3-5 2R 2 2B—.305 4 HR 39 RBI 13 SB

Michael Stanton

• 2-4 HR(19) 3 RBI 2R 2B BB—.289 56 RBI (92 K’s in 70 games)

Matt Dominguez

• 2-4 RBI—.330 3 HR 12 RBI in 103 AB

Jesus Montero

• 3-4 R 2B RBI—.315 7 HR 45 RBI (Elite Yankees prospect)

Zach McAllister

• 6IP 1H 1ER BB 3K—2-3 2.79 ERA 20K/29IP since promotion to Tampa

Cardboard Magic

Posted by Jeremy on June 24, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

[rockyou id=115970604&w=426&h=319]