PPR Mailbag: How good is Michael Main?

Posted by Jeremy on August 31, 2008 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

Can he become Texas' Main man?

Yes!  I received my first email asking a question requesting analysis of a prospect.  Today we look at young Texas Rangers fireballing prospect Michael Main.

Background: Main was one of the Rangers’ 1st round selections (24th overall) in the 2007 draft.  Last season Main pitched at two levels  (Rangers Arizona League and short-season Spokane) going 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 34 K’s in 28 IP.  This season Main began again in the Arizona League before advancing to full season Low-A Clinton in early July.  At Clinton, Main has gone 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 48 K’s in 44.1 IP  He has also held hitters to a .227 BA in his 9 starts with the Lumber Kings.

Strengths: Main has a very good fastball, pitching regularly between 93-97 MPH and his curveball is raw but promising off-speed pitch at 74-77 MPH.  He is a very good athlete and has a projectible frame that could comfortably add some bulk.  Main has a good feel for pitching and his decrease in walks allowed shows that he is improving the command of his fastball.

Weaknesses: Main is a flyball pitcher right now and he struggles at times keeping his fastball down in the zone.  Main could get touched up by more advanced hitters, especially if he struggles to develop his a third pitch.  He is working on a changeup, but it is in the developmental stages.

Market Analysis: Main has autographed 1st year cards in 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft, Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite Extra (#’ed/743) sets. The cards range from $7-10 each on Ebay right now which seems to be a good value for a player with Main’s upside.  Of course, with any young pitcher, you have to temper your expectations and know that most do not fulfill the promise that they display early in their careers.  I would like to see Main put on about 20-25 lbs to build strength and stamina, but I like his overall blend of athleticism and stuff.   

Texas has an exciting assortment of young pitchers in the lower levels of their system with the likes of Main, Blake Beavan, Kasey Kiker, Neftali Feliz, and Omar Poveda.  Look out for this club in the next couple of seasons!

Congratulations Michael Bowden

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Read the First Comment

Just another Red Sox pitching prospect

Michael Bowden was victorious in his first MLB start tonight against the Chicago White Sox.  Bowden who was called up to replace the injured Josh Beckett in the rotation pitched five solid innings surrendering two runs on seven hits while walking one and striking out three.

An encouraging note was Bowden’s control as he fired 62 of 89 pitches for strikes.  Bowden’s control has been very good all season long.  One notable area of concern is the fact that of the seven hits given up by Bowden, three went for doubles and one was a triple.

Bowden’s cards have received a nice jump as a fresh contingent of Red Sox Nation has been introduced to the young hurler.  This will definitely be tempered if Bowden doesn’t get to pitch many more innings in September.  My observations on him remain the same.  He profiles as a mid-rotation innings eater in the mold of a Jeff Suppan or Joe Blanton.  With Josh Beckett slated to return on Friday, this is a spot start for Bowden, but he should get a further look from the pen or in more spot starts.

Travis Snider to Make MLB Debut Tonight

Posted by Jeremy on August 29, 2008 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Sweet swing that hits 500 ft. HR's

The future is now for the Blue Jays’ 2006 1st round selection.  Shortly after designating Matt Stairs for assignment, Toronto promoted the 20 year old Travis Snider for the 4th time this season.  Snider pushed the envelope by hammering AAA pitching to the tune of a .344 BA with 2 HR 17 RBI in 64 AB’s.

Snider is expected to play RF, LF and DH for Toronto until the end of the season.  From what it sounds like from Cito Gaston, Snider will be given plenty of AB’s as the Jays are completely out of post-season contention.

I like Snider’s abilities to make a splash right away.  I get the feeling that he will get to see a lot of fastballs initially, which he mashes with great fervor.  As pitchers adjust their game plan against him and throw him more off-speed pitches, Snider will likely struggle (154 K’s so far this season) and need to make adjustments.  Don’t be surprised to see his ‘06 cards receive a nice bump early on, especially if he blasts a few long HR’s.

Here’s another great article chronicling the massive power potential of Travis Snider.  Having watched him play as a prep in Everett, WA, I can tell you that the power he generates is jaw dropping.

Good luck tonight Travis!

8/27 Low-A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 28, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Read the First Comment

Adam Coe

• 3-4 2 HR(7) 3 RBI—.249 7 HR 42 RBI 14BB/94K (thought this guy would be better)

Freddie Freeman

• 2-4 R RBI—Cooled off lately (.222 5 RBI 11K last 10 games)

Cody Johnson

• 3-4 HR(25) 4 RBI—.303 4 HR 12 RBI 8 R last 10 games (will just miss 200 K’s)

Oscar Tejeda

• 2-5 2B R RBI—Starting to play like a top prospect (.425 7 RBI 17 H last 10 games)

Darin Holcomb

• 2-4 2B 2 RBI R—.282 9 RBI 8 R last 10 games

Madison Bumgarner

• 5 IP 3H ER 9K (W)—15-3 1.46 ERA 164K/142IP (wow!)

Brandon Laird

• 2-4 HR(21) 2 RBI BB—.379 3 HR 11 RBI 8 R and a big smile

Brad Suttle

• 2-3 HR(11) 2 RBI 3R 2B 2BB—.268 11 HR 41 RB1

Austin Romine

• 3-5 HR(10) 2 RBI—.333 3 HR 7 RBI last 10 games

Justin Snyder

• 2-2 2B R 2 RBI BB-.283 7 HR 54 RBI 60 BB 75 R

Nick Noonan

• 3-4 2R RBI SB( 28 )—.289 HR 6 RBI 8R last 10 games

Brandon Waring

• 2-3 2 HR(20) 3 RBI BB—.266 20 HR 67 RBI 153 K’s

Neftali Soto

• 1-3 HR(10) 2 RBI—.452 2 HR 13 RBI 19 H last 10 games

Jeremy Horst

• 6 IP 2H 2BB 6K (W)—5-0 1.52 ERA 51K/49IP last 10 games

Tim Smith

• 2-4 HR(13) 2 RBI—.302 13 HR 70 RBI 12 SB

Jovan Rosa

• 3-4 2 2B—8-13 6 2B 3 R last 3 games

Mike Moustakas

• 3-4 2B R 2 RBI—.327 13 HR 40 RBI 15 2B since the All-Star break

Jeremy Moore

• 1-4 HR(17) RBI—.289 3 HR 6 RBI last 10 games

Robert Fish

• 6 IP 3H ER 3BB 8K (W)—10-4 4.91 ERA 134K/141IP

BUY/SELL Analysis

Madison, Alderson, Lincecum...OH MY!

Is there a pitcher having a better season right now than Madison Bumgarner?  Less than a month removed from his 19th birthday, Bumgarner is putting up Playstation-like numbers in the South Atlantic League going 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA and a sterling 21BB/164K ratio.  Hitters have managed to hit an anemic .216 against the big southpaw.  Bumgarner brings heat, regularly hitting 93-95 MPH with a lively fastball that saws off right-handed batters.  Bumgarner has a sharp breaking slurve and is improving his changeup.  Bumgarner has cards in the 2007 Bowman Draft and Chrome set as well as autos (#’ed to 794) in the ‘07 Donruss Elite Extra set and Bowman Sterling set.  His Donruss Elite and Bowman Sterling autos sell for $25-30 each while his chrome cards regularly can be found in bulk at $1.50-2.00 a card. 

Market Advice: Normally, I have a hard time paying premium prices for pitchers, albiet young ones.  However, Bumgarner is special.  His exceptional athleticism, powerful frame and firm grasp of the strike zone has placed him on the fast track to San Francisco.  He has the ability to dominate at ever level he pitches.  The thought of a rotation that features Bumgarner, fellow ‘07 1st rounder Tim Alderson (who is also having a stellar season), and future Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum must have Giants fans drooling.  His autos are a good BUY at these prices, but I would opt for the Bowman Draft and Chrome cards in copious quantities.

8/26 High-A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today, Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Here’s a nice compilation of prospect performances from the California, Carolina, and Florida State leagues…

Jon Still

• 1-5 HR(22) RBI—Slumping lately (5-32 2 HR 6 RBI last 10 games)

Jason Place

• 1-4 HR(17) RBI—.246 17 HR 58 RBI 144 K’s

Yamaico Navarro

• 3-5 HR(11) 3 RBI 2B—.429 11 R 18 H last 10 games

Chris Carter

• 1-4 HR(37) RBI—Latest player to reach 100 RBI mark

Eric Campbell

• 2-3 HR( 18 ) 3 RBI—.252 18 HR 64 RBI 47BB/53K

Jason Heyward

• 0-6 K—Tough debut at Myrtle Beach in double header (no worries about him long term)

Scott Diamond

• 7 IP 5H BB K (W)—15-3 2.89 ERA 123K/153IP

Brandon Erbe

• 7 IP 2H BB 9K (W)—Back to back super outings following two bad outings

Brandon Snyder

• 3-5 2 2B 2R RBI—.417 15 H 7 R last 10 games

Michael Burgess

• 1-2 HR(24) 2 RBI BB—.278 4 HR 12 RBI 8 R last 10 games

Tyler Herron

• 7 OP 2H 2BB 6K—7-7 4.17 ERA 102K/138IP

Michael Taylor

• 2-5 HR( 18 ) RBI—.316 3 HR 8 RBI 7 R last 10 games

Sean West

• 7 IP 3H 8K (W)—4-2 1.81 ERA 51K/55IP

Christian Garcia

• 7 IP 7H ER 2BB 10K—4-2 2.90 ERA 60K/50IP in 10 games at Tampa

BUY/SELL Analysis

Won't be overlooked for long

Yamaico Navarro was almost not included on Baseball America’s Top 30 Boston Red Sox prospects list.  The Red Sox have a treasure trove of highly talented SS prospects like Jed Lowrie, Oscar Tejeda, Will Middlebrooks, and Argenis Diaz.  Of all of them, though, Navarro is having the best offensive season.  Only 5-11 and 170 lb., Navarro has surprsing pop and great bat speed.  Navarro has caught fire in the month of August, hitting .417 with 40 hits 21 runs 2 HR and 15 RBI at Lancaster.  Navarro doesn’t always play with maximum effort and his plate discipline is inconsistent at times.  Navarro is one of the 2008 Bowman Chrome debutants and his regular chrome cards comand a price of 75 cents to $1.00 each.

Market Advice: The Red Sox have found something special in Jed Lowrie.  Fortunately for Navarro, he already has experience of playing 3B and his range, hands, and arm strength would make him a good one.  Right now, Navarro is making a strong case for future consideration by the Red Sox, but with Middlebrooks’ recent move to 3B, Navarro may find himself to be trade bait to another team.  Regardless of where he plays, the price of his cards are a great BUY right now considering the season he is having as a future Fenway fielder.

8/26 AA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 27, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Read the First Comment

AA is far and away my favorite level to prospect as it seems that the best prospects congregate there and give you the best glimpse of who is real deal and what they project to do at the major league level.  Lots of “real deals” had nice performances last night.

Zack Daeges

• 3-4 3 RBI 2B 2R SB(3)—.324 HR 10 RBI last 10 games (hits when healthy)

Josh Reddick

• 1-3 HR(23) 2 RBI—.323 23 HR 91 RBI 14 SB 88 R over 3 levels

Argenis Diaz

• 3-4 HR(2) RBI 3R—.304 2 HR 20 RBI in 33 games at Portland

Jose Tabata

• 1-4 HR(7) RBI—.400 2 HR 6 RBI 4 SB 10 R last 10 games

Fernando Martinez

• 2-4 R RBI BB—.287 7 HR 38 RBI 6 SB in 80 games at Binghamton

Chris Tillman

• 6 IP 4H 2BB 8K (W)—3-0 0 ER 23K/5BB in last 3 outings (get a Bowman Auto now)

Nolan Reimold

• 2-5 2HR(22) 3 RBI—.283 22 HR 78 RBI 82 R 60 BB (September MLB debut?)

Jeremy Hellickson

• 5 IP 6H ER 3BB 9K (W)—Not struggling anymore at AA (4-2 2.82 ERA 67K/61IP)

Brandon Allen

• 1-4 HR(27) RBI—5 HR 7 RBI 7 R last 7 games (may replace Paul Konerko at 1B soon)

Andrew Lambo

• 1-4 HR(16) 3 RBI—2nd game at Jacksonville (just turned 20 yrs. old)

\Russ Mitchell

• 1-4 HR(16) 3 RBI—.282 5 HR 13 RBI 8 R last 10 games

Scott Elbert

• IP 3K—3-0 1.46 ERA 20K/12IP 5H (Will his future role be in the 8th or 9th inning?)

Jesus Guzman

• 1-4 HR(17) RBI—Hot again .395 2 HR 11 RBI last 10 games

Kyle Blanks

• 2-4 R RBI—Sizzling .439 3 HR 20 RBI 18 H last 10 games

Drew Sutton

• 2-4 HR(19) 2 RBI 2R BB—.382 2 HR 5 RBI 9 R 13BB/4K last 10 games

Brian Bogusevic

• 2-5 RBI—Pitching career may be bogus, but bat is real (.343 4 HR 23 RBI 8 SB in 47 games)

BUY/SELL Analysis

4-1 2.40 ERA .157 BAA in '08

Scott Elbert was one of the hottest pitching prospects in all of baseball in 2007 before a torn labrum ended his season after just 3 starts.  Elbert came back in June and has thrown in 25 games this season as a mid to late inning RP.  The lefty Elbert is still electrifying, pounding the strike zone with a lively 94-97 MPH fastball and a two-zone curveball that is his out pitch.  Elbert is a fiery competitor who has all the makings of a top flight closer within the next couple seasons.  Elbert has several cards in the 2004 products with autographs in Bowman Sterling, SP Prospects, Donruss Elite Extra, and Fleer Hot Prospects.  His base cards are also in great abundance in products like Bowman Draft and Chrome, Bowman Heritage, and Topps Traded and Chrome.  With so many products available, it is easy to see that prices vary.  Autographs can be had for as low as $5 (Donruss Elite) to as high as $25 (SP Prospects).  Base cards are difficult to find in bulk right now, but singles can be attained for 75 cents to $1 each.

Market Advice: Elbert is a prospect fraught with uncertainties.  What will his eventual role be? Will his role as a RP increase his chances to be healthy?, Will he dominate at the MLB level like he does now?  The risk/reward factor for pitching prospects is high and for injury-prone RP’s it is even higher.  In light of these observations, I cannot endorse buying Elbert’s cards unless you get them for well under the above mentioned prices, but I do think that it would be wise to HOLD his cards (especially autos) if you have them.  He is close to making an MLB debut and has the potential to make some early waves a la Max Scherzer.  If you have his cards, get them scanned and ready to SELL on Ebay if he gets an MLB call up in September.

Welcome Back Team USA!

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

First medal in 8 years for USA Baseball

Fresh off of their Bronze Medal-winning Olympic experience, many Team USA members rejoined their MILB lineups after a month of international competition.  While many are likely still recovering from jet lag, some did play in last night’s games.  Here’s a rundown of their post-Olympic debuts…

Brian Barden

• 0-1

Jeremy Cummings

• 3 IP 4H ER 2BB 6K (W)

Dexter Fowler

• 0-3 K

Mike Hessman

• 2-3 BB

Lou Marson

• 0-2 2BB K

Blaine Neal

• IP

Taylor Teagarden

• 1-4 R 2K

An inauspicious start indeed, but it is nice to see them back in action.

8/25 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 26, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

I am back after a couple days off!  Here’s what happened in last night’s AAA games

Kila Ka’aihue

• 1-3 2B R 2BB—.320 35 HR 96 RBI 98 BB 1.096 OPS

Max Ramirez

• 2-6 HR(21) 2 RBI—.316 2 HR 6 RBI in 5 games at Oklahoma

John Mayberry Jr.

• 2-6 2B RBI—Rebounding after terrible July (.163 BA .536 OPS)

Justin Upton

• 1-4 HR(13) RBI BB—.279 2 HR 5 RBI 18 K’s in 11 game rehab at Tucson

Jamie D’Antona

• 3-4 RBI BB—Will he be a MLB player or AAAA roadie?

Ian Kennedy

• 6 IP 4H 2 ER 2BB 9K (W)—4-3 3.00 ERA 53K/54IP last 10 games

Anthony Swarzak

• 8 IP 7H ER 2BB 6K (W)—5-0 1.89 ERA 24K/38IP last 10 games

Neil Walker

• 2-4 HR(16) 4 RBI BB—.241 16 HR 77 RBI 66 R

Brian Bixler

• 2-4 3R HR(7) RBI—.285 7 HR 35 RBI 20 SB 100K in 80 games

John Jaso

• 1-5 HR(12) 3 RBI—.290 5 HR 24 RBI in 100 AB at Durham

BUY/SELL Analysis

We MAY see him in September!

My previous predictions about John Mayberry Jr. have blown up in my face as of late.  All season long, I have talked about Mayberry as being a potential star RF for the Texas Rangers as early as this season.  Mayberry started the first half strong, hitting .308 with 10 HR and 38 RBI in the months of May and June.  July’s swoon, immediately after my glowing praise of him, has put his plans of a promotion on the back burner.  August has rendered more positive results (.280 2 HR 6 RBI) but his BB/K rate (3/21) is unacceptible.  Plate discipline continues to be Mayberry’s nemesis and his long swing will be exploited heavily by major league pitching.  That being said, Mayberry’s power potential is obvious.  Last season he hit 30 HR over two levels.  This season his 10 HR’s is a disappointment, but 38 2B’s show that he can drive balls into the alleys for power.  Mayberry’s cards reside in the 2005 Bowman and Topps products with several autos available in Bowman Chrome Draft, Bowman Sterling, and Bowman Heritage.  The market for his stuff is low, with his chrome autos selling for $12-16 each and his Sterling and Heritage Autos going for anywhere from $4-8 each.

Market Advice:  Mayberry is far from a surefire superstar and at 24 years old (25 in December), his window as an impact prospect is starting to slowly shut.  He is almost assured to be spending his fall in Arizona or Venezuela learning the strike zone and, if so, he will be one of the primary guys on my radar screen.  I still like the size and athleticism that he brings to the table, though the comparisons to Jermaine Dye may be a tad generous.  All in all, I would rather BUY one of his autos than a $5 foot long at Subway (it would be better for me anyway!)

8/22 Low A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 24, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Brandon Waring

• 2-3 HR( 18 ) 2 RBI 2B—.267 18 HR 64 RBI 147 K’s

Jonathan Kibler

• 5 IP 6H 3 ER BB 5K—14-5 1.75 ERA 126K/154IP

Jeremy Horst

• 5.1 IP 6H ER BB K (W)—7-2 2.53 ERA 104K/96IP

Jeremy McBryde

• 5 IP 4H 2 ER 12K—7-8 4.33 ERA 147K/127IP

Pat McAnaney

• 5 IP 4H BB 4K (W)—4-2 0.94 ERA 49K/48IP .190 BAA

Mike Moustakas

• 2-3 2B R BB—.271 21 HR 67 RBI 71 R

Jeremy Moore

• 2-5 HR(16) 2 RBI BB SB( 28 )—.247 16 HR 46 RBI 11 3B 28 SB

Robert Fish

• 6.1 IP 9H 3ER BB 8K (W)—9-4 5.07 ERA 126K/135IP

Engel Beltre

• 1-4 HR( 8 ) RBI—.283 8 HR 45 RBI 84R 29 SB

Carlos Hernandez

• 6 IP 4H ER 6K (W)—7-0 2.10 ERA 66K/73IP

Michael Main

• 4 IP 4H 2 ER BB 6K (L)—3-3 2.79 ERA 57K/52IP

Caleb Gindl

• 3-4 HR(13) 3 RBI 2R—4th consecutive HR game (.415 5 HR 11 RBI 11 R last 10 games)

Darin Holcomb

• 2-4 2 RBI—.316 13 HR 93 RBI 86 R 60BB/60K 44 2B

Reid Fronk

• 2-3 2 HR(15) 2 RBI—.275 15 HR 73 RBI 15 SB 67 BB

Jesus Montero

• 3-4 2R 2 RBI—.320 16 HR 79 RBI 32 2B 79 R

Oscar Tejeda

• 3-5 2R 2 RBI—.366 7 RBI 15H last 10 games

Brent Morel

• 2-3 HR(3) RBI 2B 2R BB—.278 3 HR 6 RBI 8R last 10 games

Michael Durant

• 1-5 HR(17) RBI—.231 17 HR 64 RBI 128K

Travis D’Arnaud

• 3-5 HR(6) RBI 2B—.469 2 HR 5 RBi 9R 16H in 8 games with Lakewood

T.J. Warren

• 3-4 R BB SB(5)—.272 2 HR 30 RBI 5 SB in 62 games

BUY/SELL Analysis

Needs oven mitts to hold his bat!

Travis D’Arnaud was a supplimental 1st round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2007 draft.  Lauded for his athleticism and arm strength behind the plate, D’Arnaud’s main question areas revolved around his bat.  Some scouts were not sold on his ability to hit professional pitching but his athleticism and projectible frame has promise of producing power as he develops.  This season, D’Arnaud debuted at Short Season Williamsport where he hit .309 with 4 HR 25 RBI and 13 2B’s in 175 AB’s.  His BB/K ratio of 18/29 was very respectible and earned him a promotion to Low-A Lakewood.  D’Arnaud ramped up his production in his first 8 games hitting .429 with 2 HR 5 RBI and 5 BB’s.  While Travis will most likely not maintain this torrid pace, he has done much to dispell the critics of his bat thusfar.  D’Arnaud has his only 1st year cards in the 2007 Bowman Draft and Chrome set.  Similar to other prospects in that set like Corey Brown, Justin Jackson, Ed Easley, Julio Borbon and Kyle Lotzkar, D’Arnaud has both a chrome base card and autograph available.  His base cards are not in high demand right now and can be found in bunches for 25-50 cents each.  His autos are a little more popular, but not in super high demand either ranging from $5-7 each.

Market Advice: D’Arnaud has the tools to advance steadily through the Phillies farm system.  Looking to the future, D’Arnaud really only has Lou Marson blocking him as a potential backstop for the Phillies in the next 3 seasons.  I think D’Arnaud has more long term upside than Marson, though Marson is at this stage much more polished.  I think it is reasonable to expect that D’Arnaud could be a 15-20 HR per season hitter in the major leagues.  That being said, keep a close eye on him to see how he performs next year at Clearwater and, possibly, Reading.  While plucking his cards right now is a speculative venture, my prognosticative gut tells me that $5-7 per auto is the lowest price that you will be paying for his cards for the next few seasons. BUY, BUY, BUY.

8/22 High A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 23, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

With the Florida State League virtually underwater, the prospect list is a little shorter than usual…

Cedric Hunter

• 2-3 2R 2B RBI BB—.321 94 R 176H 10 HR 77 RBI 12 SB (just 20 years old)

Ryan Mount

• 2-4 HR(15) 4 RBI 2R—.286 3 HR 7 RBI 10 R last 10 games

Jordan Walden

• 6 IP 3H ER 2BB 4K (W)—4-2 4.10 ERA 36K/37IP with Rancho Cucamonga

Josh Donaldson

• 3-4 2 2B 3 RBI—.333 7 RBI 6 2B last 10 games

Scott Mitchinson

• 4.2 IP 4 H 2 ER BB 4K—Decent debut with Stockton (moves past Craig Italiano)

Ryan Kalish

• 1-5 HR(5) 3 RBI—.308 2 HR 11 rbI in 9 games with Lancaster

Kris Negron

• 5-5 2 HR( 8 ) 5 rBI 3R 3B—.381 7 HR 19 RbI 5 SB in 23 games with Lancaster

Felix Doubrant

• 5 IP 3H BB 9K (W)—Oustanding Lancaster debut (I like this kid)

Carlos Rivero

• 1-5 HR(6) RbI—Power will develop read more below

Colin DeLome

• 2-4 2B 3B 2R 2 RBI BB—.250 22 HR 71 RBI (great athleticism)

Koby Clemens

• 2-2 2 RBI 2B R 2BB—.275 7 HR 50 RBI

Wilkin De La Rosa

• 5 IP 4H 2Bb 3K (W)—2-1 1.10 ERA 15K/16IP with Tampa (3 games)

Todd Frazier

• 3-5 2 RBI 2B R—.296 19 HR 73 RBI 83 R over two levels

BUY/SELL Analysis

They grow their SS big in Venezuela

While many prospectors will be chasing around base cards of Dominic Brown, Hector Gomez, Juan Francisco, and others, one young Cleveland Indians corner infield prospect has the potential to be as great as all of them.  Carlos Rivero signed as a free agent from Venezuela in 2005 as a shortstop whose defensive tools were above average for a guy of his stature (6-3 200 lb.).  Accompanying those skills is a swing that produces raw power to all fields and good bat speed.  Last season, Rivero played at Low-A Lake County where he hit.261 with 7 HR and 61 RBI in 115 games.  His BB/K ratio of 47/84 was not horrible, but his overall plate discipline is thought to need some refinement.  This season, Rivero is one of the younger players in the Carolina League and he has held his own, hitting .272 with 6 HR and 55 RBI.  His BB/K ratio has remained pretty consistent as well at 35/77.  Rivero’s cards are in the 2008 Bowman Chrome set and they are selling for 50-75 cents each.  His refractors are available for about $5 and his X-Fractors can be had for $7-9 each.

Market Advice: This is a guy to BUY.  Slick fielding shortstops of his size are few and far between.  At only 20 years old, Rivero has plenty of time to mature and develop into the power hitter he profiles to be.  I think he has enough range and agility to stay at shortstop, so long that he doesn’t get too big.  If he can, his value is sure to be greater than if he is relegated to a corner infield spot.  He has many kinks to work out in his game and his work ethic is a little bit of a concern.  I think that age has quite a bit to do with that and the Indians have proven to be an organization that develops their talent very well.  Long term, the benefits for this guy far outweight the costs.  Be patient!