Posted by Jeremy on October 31, 2008 under Uncategorized | 
Aha! Now I will be caught up with my reports, but still I am very far behind in every other area of my online ventures! Last night’s AFL action gave us our first repeat Player of the Day winner. “The Hulk” Logan Morrison hit for the cycle last night as Mesa downed Scottsdale 11-6. Congrats to Logan who is having a stellar AFL campaign.
Player of the Day: LOGAN MORRISON
.420 with 3 HR and 15 RBI this fall!
Phoenix Desert Dogs 7
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J.P. Arencibia—2-4 2 HR(4) 3 RBI (.286 17 RBI)
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Shane Tolleson—2-5 HR(2) RBI 2R 2B (.426 16 RBI)
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Eric Young Jr.—2-5 R SB(12)
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Josh Donaldson—1-4 R
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Ryan Patterson—2-2 2 BB
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Shane Lindsay—4 IP 4H ER 2 BB 6K (W)
Peoria Javelinas 1
Mesa Solar Sox 11
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Logan Morrison—4-5 HR (3) 5 RBI 2B 3B 2R (CYCLE!)
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Jeff Larish—1-5 HR(3) 3 RBI
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Tyler Flowers—2-5 2B 3B 2R (.410 BA)
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Jason Donald—1-3 2B 2R BB (.429)
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Tommy Hanson—5 IP 3H 5K (W) (3-0 0.00 ERA 19K/13.2 IP .091 BAA)
Scottsdale Scorpions 6
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Chris Johnson—3-4 HR(1) 3 RBI 2 2B (.347 13 RBI)
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Aaron Bates—1-4 R 2B
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Chris Pettit—1-4 2B R RBI
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Bud Norris—1.2 IP 2H ER 4K (needs to be a reliever)
Peoria Saguaros 3
Surprise Rafters 2
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Wes Hodges—2-4 R (.393 4 HR 17 RBI)
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Nolan Reimold—1-4 2B RBI (starting to heat up)
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Brandon Snyder—1-4 2B (.375)
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Josh Tomlin—4 IP H BB 5K
Tags: aaron bates, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, autographed cards, bowman chrome draft, brandon snyder, bud norris, carlos triunfel, chris johnson, eric young jr., gordon beckham, j.p. arencibia, jason donald, josh donaldson, logan morrison, mike baxter, minor league prospects, nolan reimold, rookie cards, tommy hanson, tyler flowers, tyler greene, wes hodges
Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized |
Wednesday’s AFL action had several top notch performances. Sean Doolittle continues to demonstrate the promising power and polish that he demonstrated at Stockton this year, White Sox 2008 draftee Jordan Danks had a perfect afternoon in his second AFL game with Mesa, but the performance of the day goes to San Diego Padres OF prospect Mike Baxter who went 5-5 with a double, HR and 4 RBI.
Note: If you click this link, you will notice that he has a stunning resemblence to John Travolta in Urban Cowboy (sans the cowboy hat). Congrats Mike!
Player of the Day: MIKE BAXTER
Hitting .538 with 13 RBI this fall!
Phoenix Desert Dogs 10
- Sean Doolittle—3-5 HR(6) 4 RBI 2B 3R (.323 BA w/ 17 RBI)
- Chris Nelson—2-4 2B 2 RBI
- Dustin Martin—3-5 R RBI SB(3)
- J.P. Arencibia—1-4 2B R 2 RBI SB(1)
- Eric Young Jr.—1-3 2R BB SB(11)
- Brooks Brown—4.2 IP 3H BB 5K (W)
Peoria Javelinas 2
- Lou Palmisano—1-4 2B R
- Kevin Russo—2-4
- Lorenzo Cain—1-3 HR(1) RBI BB
Peoria Saguaros 12
- Mike Baxter—5-5 HR(2) 4 RBI 2B R
- Jordan Danks—4-4 HR(1) 3 RBI 2R BB SB(1) (watch this guy!)
- Gordon Beckham—1-3 2R RBI BB
- Kyle Blanks—1-5 HR(1) RBI
- Cole Armstrong—1-5 HR(3) RBI
- Steven Hill—2-5 HR(1) RBI 2R
Surprise Rafters 6
- Julio Borbon—3-4 3B BB SB(5)
- Justin Smoak—1-3 HR(1) RBI 2R 2BB
- Andrew Lambo—2-5 R
- Chad Tracy—3-4 HR(2) 5 RBI 2R 2B
- Matt Wieters—1-5 2B RBI
- Stephen Head—1-3 R 2BB
Mesa Solar Sox 10
- Darwin Barney—3-4 2b R 2 RBI SB(1)
- Quentin Berry—2-5 R SB(5)
- Jeff Larish—2-4 2R HR(2) 3 RBI BB (.294 BA 16 RBI)
- Will Rhymes—2-4 2R 2B RBI (.345 BA)
- Casper Wells—1-3 2B R RBI BB
- Drew Carpenter—5 IP 3H 2K
Scottsdale Scorpions 4
- Shelby Ford—2-4 HR(3) RBI 2R
- Kevin Frandsen—3-4 2B (.354 BA)
- Chris Pettit—1-4 HR(2) RBI
- Drew Sutton—1-4 2B RBI (.463 BA w/ 14 RBI)
- Clay Buchholz—5 IP 5H ER 2 BB 3K
Tags: andrew lambo, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, bowman chrome draft, chris nelson, Clay Buchholz, drew sutton, eric young jr., gordon beckham, j.p. arencibia, jordan danks, Julio Borbon, justin smoak, kyle blanks, lorenzo cain, matt wieters, mike baxter, Minor League Baseball, minor league prospects, rookie cards, Sean Doolittle, shelby ford, stephen head
Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized |
Preemptively, if you have yet to read the interview with Adam McFarland, you can read it here. Now, my take on things…
I, like many of you, spent copious amounts of my pre-teen allowance dollars faithfully building my empire of 1988 Topps, 1990 Upper Deck and 1991 Donruss cards with the thought that one day these gems (remember Sam Horn? Gregg Jeffries? Kevin Maas?) would someday fund my college career and, perhaps, the down payment on my first house. Hindsight being 20/20, we collectors stand nearly 20 years later to see that the hobby has undergone profound changes. I could go into a 10,000 word diatribe detailing the evolution of the sports card industry–the birth of Beckett, the crazes of inserts, relics, and autos, Bowman Chrome Draft, the internet and Ebay. Changed as the industry is, there is one axiom that remains true today.
SPORTS CARDS ARE NOT INVESTMENTS!
Now, before some of you faithful readers and prospecting bretheren run for the hills or denounce me as a hypocrite, hear me out. The online sports card market is a fickle-minded speculative market. Nowhere is this more true than in the baseball rookie/prospect card market. Often in this sector, players often begin their professional careers in relative anonymity. Sure, there is a sizeable constituency of prospectors and “chromies” who paruse box scores, scouting reports, PECOTA and VORP charts in an effort to be bargain basement buyers, but the majority of the marketplace consists of a blend of casual fans who rely on the ESPN’s and local sports networks to introduce them to the latest and greatest sports stars.
Profits can be realized for those who can most effectively time the markets (i.e. the “buy low, sell high” principle) and can generate a steady rate of cash flow. I assure you, it is more difficult than it sounds. The more I discover about the online markets and prospecting in general, the more I realize that can never get a complete mastery of it.
There are just too many variables.
The initial step is to prospect players effectively, but even within that realm there are so many different considerations to make. Examples: How much do you invest in high risk, high reward players vs. low risk low reward players? Is it better to spend $50 on one bonafide star versus $5 apiece on 10 different sleepers? How much do extenuating circumstances play into a player’s unexpected success/failure? When should I cut bait on a guy? OK, OK, OK, you get the point.
Beyond prospecting is the none-too-pleasurable task of trying to efficiently work the market to garner the best prices and, hopefully, profit margin for your speculations. After all, what point is there in prospecting if you are not financially prospering from your purchases? Working the Ebay market is time consuming and tedious. Not only do you need to figure out what you are going to sell, you have to find the best way to market it effectively without incurring unnecessary costs (and ohhh does Ebay and Paypal love to stick those to you!). After all that, the tedium of sending out invoices, packaging and shipping materials, leaving feedback and chasing down deadbeat bidders are all waiting to suck away more of your precious time.
Additionally, if you don’t keep good financial records of your revenues and expenditures then your profit margin is sure to diminish as extranneous costs tend to slip through the cracks due to poor planning. We all can remember the super successful score we made on purchasing an item and then reselling it for an exponential profit, but we fail to also truthfully account for the five or six purchases we made in which we took losses. Keeping good records of both ends of the transaction (net cost and net revenue) will give you more bearing on what works and doesn’t work, which enhances your sense of conventional wisdom come time for your next speculative buy and sell.
Regarding the current state of the market, it is very apparent that prices for prospect cards are noticably down. As the resevoirs of our discretionary income evaporate, one of the first budget cuts that most of us make revolves around our personal hobbies. I am no global economist or MBA grad, but I do believe that the fundamentals of our economy are indeed strong and the recession that we are in will turn around. After all, if Warren Buffett is buying up truckloads of stock right now, I am going to assume that it is safe to buy some cardboard stock of my own while prices are down. This is the perfect time to buy baseball prospects. The market is down, the season is over and the prospect-laden products are hitting the hobby shelves.
That said, this is a time of discretionary spending. Ripping packs is a pant load of fun, but so is a night at the casino. In both cases, people who enter in with high expectations often come out of it feeling low. I can’t help but be captivated by the YouTube phenomenon of pack ripping. From what I have seen of it, the formula remains the same. The camera offers a first hand view of two hands deftly ripping the foil along its seam before rapidly thumbing through the 4-5 base cards in search of the “hit”. These are then cast aside once the hit is found or the next pack is retrieved. Wash…Rinse…Repeat. At the end of the box, a person has really a handful of “hits” though they are really excited about just one or two of them. What the camera doesn’t show is that same person putting the cards up on Ebay and earning back about half of what they paid for the box.
I worked in a baseball card shop for a summer and I witnessed firsthand the plight of the pack ripper. Incoming shipments of new inventory seemed to arrive at roughly the same time that many of the shop’s familiar faces had their pay days. These gents would then come in and rip box after box, spending hundred after hundred on whatever goody-loaded product topped the counter. It was exciting! Every once in a while, someone would pull something really cool out and proudly proclaim “Well, that one will pay for the box!” More often was the case that that same individual would finish their rip and feel dejected about their two or three non-descript jersey cards or autos that didn’t meet their expectations. Adding to the matter, these same individuals would then proceed to sell their base cards (a.k.a. “chaff”) back to the store owner at a heavily discounted price for future credit. The store owner then would inventory the cards on his web store and eventually sell them for profit.
Emerging from this tangent, I hope not to have offended those of you box busters who truly collect the products you rip. What I wish to communicate, is the compelling notion that calculated risk and well-researched speculation trumps emotion-driven pack ripping ecstacy for those in search of increasing their financial bottom lines.
So ends my stream of consciousness blathering about the prospect market. After the conclusions of the Arizona Fall League and Hawaiian Winter League, I am going to insert some random tips on buying, selling and prospecting effectively. I am always eager to share what has and has not worked for me. Moreover, I would love to hear points of view from all of you as well. Don’t hesitate to send me your questions and opinions on any prospecting matter. Together we enhance the quality of this outstanding community!
Posted by Jeremy on October 30, 2008 under Readers Mailbag |
I received an interesting email in my inbox today from my new friend Mike Johnson who is the owner of Cardscape.net, a budding site that serves as a resource for cataloging sports card collections. In the article, Mike interviews Adam McFarland who is the proprietor of sports card blog Sports Lizard, a high-quality independent card pricing resource that gives a different look to the market than other conventional price guides.
Introductions aside, here is the interview in its entirety…well done by both Mike and Adam!
Figuring out what your sports cards are actually worth can be a tricky process. Depending on what source you use (Beckett, Tuff Stuff, etc.), you may or may not get a really accurate or current value. But what happens when you mix in current economic conditions such as the state of the economy that we are now facing in the United States? CardScape.net decided to pick the brain of Adam McFarland, owner of SportsLizard.com, to get his thoughts on card values, the economy, and some of the other factors involved in sports card valuation.Pricing Tool that allows collectors to quickly and easily get an approximate value for a card or collectible. You type in what you’re interested in valuing and we spit out a number. It’s as simple as a Google search. It works by aggregating all of the items available for sale on eBay, SportsLizard, and a bunch of other sites, and gives you a number using our formula that also factors in our sales and search data.an article that I wrote that I feel explains a fool proof method for valuing any card or collectible. It’s the culmination of everything I’ve learned as a lifetime collector. Generally it takes less than five minutes and can be done using free tools available on the web.Collector’s Voice, a service that aggregates all of the articles from the best collecibles bloggers on the web into one common location. It allows collectors to discover new sources of card information so they don’t have to rely on what Beckett or Tuff Stuff feeds them. For anyone who sells on eBay or has a website, we allow them to syndicate their listings in our marketplace for free through our seller program. As a buyer, a quick search of our marketplace gives you results from our 20,000+ items, everything on eBay, and everything listed on Google Product Search. I think it’s the best way to quickly find the card or collectible you’re looking for.
CardScape: Hi Adam. First off, I’d like to thank you for taking time to share your knowledge and insight on this topic. So let’s get right to it. Does a down economy affect card values?
Adam McFarland: I think it has to. Cards are a commodoty item, an unnecessary expense, and when faced with the choice of paying the bills or buying a box of cards, the bills will always win. The hobby has really evolved to rely on the collector who spends their disposable income on cards. We’re talking hundreds of dollars a month, not just a few packs here and there. Those same collectors also drive the secondary market. The “hot” cards in the hobby, generally cost $50 or $100 or more. The demand is there because there’s someone willing to pay that much for a card pulled out of a pack. When those people diminish (as they likely will), values will definitely diminish as well. How much is anyone’s guess.
CS: During bad economic times, is there anything, in your opinion, that the sports card industry as a whole can do to help protect itself from declines in card values?
AM: It will be interesting to see how Topps, Upper Deck, Donruss, etc react to the economic downturn. Certainly they have a challenge at hand to avoid having sales dip. If big companies in the industry end up going down, it will hurt the hobby. More options are always better for the consumer.They spend a ton of money getting signatures and memorabilia to put into cards. That’s the most obvious thing I see getting trimmed back. Less autos and relics. Hopefully they can come up with creative substitutions that will keep collectors happy.
Personally, I think that times like this help drive innovation because it forces you to think outside the box. Maybe the result is less autos and relics like I just speculated. Maybe it’s a reduction in the number of sets released. Maybe it’s something I’m not thinking of. Either way, I think it’ll be an interesting and possibly exciting time for collectors who are open to change.
CS: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements: Card values are like stocks in the stock market. There are fluctuations in values, but over the long term, cards will increase in value.
AM: Not really. I believe that great cards – the 1952 Micky Mantle Topps Rookie, the 1986-87 Jordan Fleer Rookie, etc – will always increase in value. But value is always correlated with demand, and demand has all sorts of unique variables that drives it. Look at Roger Clemens: his image has taken a nose-dive over the past year and so has the demand for his collectibles. I don’t think that value will ever be completely restored in the collecting community, unless something unforseen happens.Then there’s the case of all of those cards I have sitting in my basement from 1988-2000. Most of them saw their peak in the early 90’s and then dropped off dramatically to be worth pennies on the dollar. There are so many people that have saved those cards thinking that they’ll be worth a lot some day. There will always be a far greater supply than there is demand, so I don’t see how these cards will ever have any real value no matter how long you hold on to them.
CS: It may be a bit of a stretch, but do you think there is any kind of correlation between the stock market as a whole and card values?
AM: Yes and no. I think that for the reasons I mentioned earlier there is certainly a correlation between the economy and the amount of money people spend on cards. So in that sense, values will probably always be higher in a good economy and lower in a bad one. But there are also a slew of factors that impact value that have nothing to do with the economy. In the last twenty years we’ve seen the introduction of Upper Deck, grading companies, autograph/relic cards, the internet, and of course eBay into the hobby. In my opinion, those things have had a lot more impact on card values than the economy.
CS: What would you say to the average collector that is worried that their collections are not worth the money that they’ve spent on it?
AM: I’d ask them to really think about why they collect. Almost no collector ever makes a profit from collecting sports cards. It’s a hobby. It’s almost impossible to buy and sell for profit (I say almost because I do think there are a few people out there who do it and do it well). But while most collectors love to sit around and talk about the “value” of their collection, it’s generally something that will never come into fruition. Most likely they’ll never sell. If they do sell, they’ll probably never realize that full value for their collection even in a good economy. So to most collectors I’d say focus on what you enjoy about collecting. Put less of an emphasis on the exact dollar amount of a card and more emphasis on the happiness you get from opening a pack, completing a set, interacting with the collecting community online or at shows, etc.
CS: What are some of the other factors that you feel affect card values?
AM: Most people don’t like it when I say this, but each and every card has it’s own unique value. What is the condition? Is it graded? If it’s autographed, how does the auto look? If it has a jersey in it, what part of the jersey is it? How hot is the player in question? How hot is the set from which the card comes from? Where are you trying to sell the card (hobby shop, eBay, forum, etc)? And of course, what is the overall state of the hobby and the economy? Those variables are constantly changing and usually different for every card that goes on sale. So usually you can figure out about what your card is worth, but you’ll never know for sure until you try to sell it and see what someone is willing to pay for it.
CS: Given some of the things that we’ve talked about, how does SportsLizard.com help collectors value their cards?
AM: First and foremost, I hope it helps with education. We have a
We’ve put a lot of work into getting it to work well, but it’s only one piece of the valuing puzzle. Right below the search box is a tutorial for how to value any collectible. That tutorial links to
CS: What else does SportsLizard.com offer collectors?
AM: In a grand sense, I hope we offer transparency. Collectors I think are frustrated with the Beckett’s and PSA’s of the world because they have their hand in too many conflicting businesses. We’re totally independent and I try to keep the reasons we do everything we do out in the open. More specifically, our afforementioned Pricing Tool is probably the most useful thing we offer collectors. We also just launched the
CS: Again, thank you very much for shedding some light on these issues. It’s really been informative.
AM: Thank you for the interview!
I have some thoughts about this subject and in the interest of not making this post longer than the 119th book of Psalms, I will post them in the following blog entry. I invite you to read it, slam it, praise it, or give any other comments you feel.
Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized |
After a night off, the Arizona Fall League is in full swing again with Mesa continuing to win and Surprise still losing. Today’s top performer is Colorado Rockies OF prospect Eric Young Jr. Young went 3-4 with his first fall HR 4 RBI 3 runs scored and his 10th SB. Congrats Eric!
Player of the Day: ERIC YOUNG
Like Father Like Son
Mesa Solar Sox 10
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Casper Wells—2-4 HR(2) 3 RBI
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Jeremy Slayden—2-5 2 2B 3 RBI R (17 RBI’s)
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Logan Morrison—2-5 2B R 3 RBI (.400 BA)
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Scott Cousins—2-4 2R 2B 3B
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Will Rhymes—2-5 R
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Jeff Larish—2-4 2R 2B RBI BB
Peoria Saguaros 1
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Sean Kazmar—2-5 R
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Brett Wallace—3-4 RBI
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Tyler Greene—1-3 BB
Phoenix Desert Dogs 12
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Eric Young Jr.—3-4 HR(1) 4 RBI 3R SB(10) (.429 BA)
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Mike McKenry—2-4 HR(6) 2 RBI 2R 2B (.444 14 RBI)
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Josh Donaldson—1-4 2 RBI R
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Sean Doolittle—0-1 2R 3 BB
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Dustin Martin—1-3 2 RBI BB R
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Kyle Ginley—4 IP 3H BB 6K (W)
Surprise Rafters 7
Scottsdale Scorpions 3
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Brian Bogusevic—2-4 RBI SB(1) (.421 BA)
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Kevin Frandsen—2-4 R 2 SB(4)
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Chris Johnson—1-3 R SB(2)
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Shelby Ford—1-5 HR(2) RBI
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Kevin Pucetas—5 IP 4H 2 BB 3K (W)
Peoria Javelinas 2
Tags: Arizona Fall League Daily Report, brett wallace, brian bogusevic, carlos triunfel, casper wells, chris johnson, eric young jr., ivan dejesus, jeremy slayden, josh donaldson, Julio Borbon, logan morrison, mike mckenry, nolan reimold, rookie cards, scott cousins, Sean Doolittle, shelby ford, wes hodges
Posted by Jeremy on October 26, 2008 under Uncategorized |
Lots of offense to report tonight! Today’s player of the day was a toughie to choose, especially in light of Wes Hodges’ 2 HR performance in a losing cause against Mesa. Mesa outfielder and Philadelphia Phillies prospect Quentin Berry wins today’s award for his statline filling performance!
Player of the Day: QUENTIN BERRY
Hitting .387 this fall after a 51 SB season
Phoenix Desert Dogs 13
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Sean Doolittle—3-5 HR(4) RBI 3R
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Mike McKenry—3-4 HR(2) 2 RBI 2R
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Josh Donaldson—1-1 HR(2) 2 RBI
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Eric Young Jr.—3-5 2B 3B 2 R 2 RBI
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Adrian Cardenas—2-3 2R RBI
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Evan Frey—1-5 R 2 RBI SB(4)
Scottsdale Scorpions 10
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Mark Wagner—2-5 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R 2B
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Ben Copeland—2-3 2R 2B SB(2)
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Shelby Ford—1-5 2B R 3 RBI
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Jamie Romak—2-5 RBI
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Drew Sutton—0-2 2R 3 BB
Mesa Solar Sox 13
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Tyler Flowers—2-3 HR(5) 2 RBI 2B BB
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Jeff Larish—3-4 HR(1) 2 RBI 3R 2B 2 BB
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Scott Cousins—2-4 2 2B R RBI BB
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Quentin Berry—3-5 HR(1) 4 RBI 3R 2B SB(4)
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Casper Wells—3-6 R RBI
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Matt Young—2-5 2B 3R RBI
Surprise Rafters 5
Peoria Saguaros 15
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Tyler Greene—3-5 3 2B 2R RBI BB
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Shane Robinson—2-5 2R 2 RBI BB SB(4)
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Cole Armstrong—2-4 3R HR(4) 3 RBI 2 BB
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Leonard Davis—1-4 HR(2) 3 RBI 2R BB
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Bill Rhinehart—2-6 HR(2) 3 RBI 2R BB
Peoria Javelinas 4
Tags: Adrian Cardenas, andrew lambo, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, beau mills, evan frey, ivan dejesus, josh donaldson, mark wagner, quentin berry, rookie cards, scott cousins, Sean Doolittle, shane robinson, tyler flowers, tyler greene, wes hodges
