Your Daily Value #6

Posted by Jeremy on November 30, 2008 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2007 Bowman Sterling RYAN MOUNT Auto

Current eBay Value—$3.00-4.50

• Mount missed most of the first two months of the season with a strained quadriceps muscle, but when he returned he was fantastic.  Mount batted .303 over the last two months of the season, belting 14 HR with 37 RBI and 54 runs scored.  Mount has a very good bat that should produce 20-25 HR power at the major league level.  The problem is that Mount cannot seem to stay healthy for a full season.  Mount has first year cards in the various 2005 Bowman products, but this 2007 Bowman Sterling is is only major autograph to date.  There is some risk with Mount as his health is a question and the fact that he compiled many of his impressive totals in the hitter friendly parks of the California League.  Regardless, collectors looking to zoom under the radar should take a flyer on this card.

Your Daily Value #5

Posted by Jeremy on November 29, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

2007 Bowman Sterling COLE GILLESPIE Auto

Current eBay Price: $4.50-7.00

• Gillespie likely will never be an all-star at the MLB level, but season after season, this guy puts up a solid, well-rounded stat line at each stop.  Last year, Gillespie batted .281 with 14 HR 79 RBI 17 SB and 38 doubles at AA Huntsville.  I like Cole because he is a grinder who makes the most of his abilities and is a smart player.  He works the strike zone well, walks a bunch and runs the bases well despite his average speed.  Players like this seem to find ways to contribute to their ball clubs and Gillespie should do enough things well enough to stick on a major league roster.  He is a classic low-risk, mid-ceiling guy who could play mid-late 2009 for the Brewers.  Watch to see how he performs in spring training, if he excels, his cards could experience a decent short term boost. 

Your Daily Value #4

Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

2006 Bowman Chrome BRANDON SNYDER Auto

Current eBay Price: $4.00-6.00

• Sure, this is not a first year card for Snyder (he has a few 2005 offerings) and, true, he is no longer a catcher (he now plays 1B).  Make no mistake, though, Brandon Snyder can HIT and is one of my prime time breakout candidates for 2009.  Snyder played at High-A Frederick this season and hit .315 with 13 HR and 80 RBI with 33 doubles.  He fared even better in the Arizona Fall League batting .349 with 4 HR and 10 RBI in just 17 games.  The crazy thing about this particular card of his is that the refractor and x-fractor autographs have been selling for not much more.  Snyder will likely play most of the ‘09 season at AA Bowie, which should provide us with a good barometer for where he is developmentally.  He is the top 1B prospect in the O’s organization which looks really good right now.  Other bargain basement autos of his include 2005 Topps Rookie Cup ($8-12), 2006 Bowman Sterling ($5-7), and 2006 Bowman Heritage ($3-4).

Your Daily Value #3

Posted by Jeremy on November 28, 2008 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

I hope that all of you had a blessed Thanksgiving day and are recovering nicely from your tryptophan-induced slumbers.  Today’s value buy is not a prospect, rather, a prospective good bargain should the Angels not retain the services of Mark Tiexiera.

2005 UD Ultimate Collection KENDRY MORALES Auto #/125

Current eBay Price—$12.00-$15.00

• Hot stove rumblings increasingly point to the likelihood that the L.A. Angels are going to pursue C.C. Sabathia and Jake Peavy and not free agent slugger Mark Tiexiera.  If this is the case, it leaves the door wide open for switch-hitting Kendry Morales to finally tack down a full time job.  Morales can flat out hit, though he has never been given enough of an opportunity at the major league level to establish consistent production.  The Angels sent Morales to the Dominican Winter League where he has raked the ball to the tune of a .432 BA with 6 HR 18 RBI and 26 runs scored in just 19 games.  Morales’ 2005 autographs are selling for about 20-25% of Beckett value right now, but that will change if and when Tex signs with another team.  Morales is still just 25 years old and has yet to enter the prime of his career.  Given a full season, Morales should hit .280-.300 with 20-25 HR and 80-90 RBI.  Expect him to break out big time next season.

Your Daily Value #2

Posted by Jeremy on November 26, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

2007 Bowman Chrome Draft JONATHAN GILMORE Auto

Current eBay Value: $6.00-$7.50

• Gilmore, the former AFLAC All-American, bit off more than he could chew at Low-A Rome batting just .186 in 27 games.  He was demoted to short season Danville where he plastered the ball, hitting .337 with 4 HR and 31 RBI in 67 games.  Gilmore has tons of power potential and a solid athletic frame that he has yet to fully grow into.  The Braves drafted him with their supplimental 1st round pick and usually the boys in Atlanta know what they are doing when it comes to building a farm system.  I am willing to bet that the Danville portion of Gilmore’s season is more along the lines of what can be expected of him in future performances.  Gilmore is a long ways off from unthroning future HOF’er Chipper Jones.  Keep him on your radar next season as he looks to tackle the Roman empire once more…hopefully with more success.

Your Daily Value #1

Posted by Jeremy on November 25, 2008 under Your Daily Value | Read the First Comment

Now that the Arizona Fall League and Hawaiian Winter League has concluded, I find myself in need of providing some fresh content to the increasing numbers of you who are reading this blog.  I did the math and found that there are 95 days until the 1st of March when spring training games should commence.  From now until then, I plan to give a daily prospect card that I think is a good buy for this upcoming season.  If all things shake out, there should be a database of nearly 100 value buys before the first pitch of the spring.  Without further ado, here is Value Buy #1.

2007 Bowman Sterling BEN REVERE Auto

Current eBay Value $5.00-$7.00

• Revere is a hitting machine and one of the most lethal top of the order weapons in the minor leagues.  He has several autos in various 2007 products (Bowman Chrome, Donruss Elite Extra)  which may be the reason that this one is prices so low.  However, his game changing speed and advanced approach at the plate should allow him to move quickly through the Twins system.  Currently, the Twins have Denard Span as their lead off hitter as the more talented Carlos Gomez was unable to display the necessary plate discipline and consistency to keep the position.  Personally, I think Revere will ultimately be better than both of them.  It would be nice to see him develop more HR pop this year to avoid Juan Pierre-itis.

Top Arizona Fall League Pitching Performers

Posted by Jeremy on November 24, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

The AFL has historically been a very hitter-friendly league.  This year proved to be no exception as four hitters batted over .400 and nearly half the league hit at least .300.  That said, there were a few standout performers on the mound.

5.) Kevin Pucetas—San Francisco Giants RHP

4-1  4.33 ERA  1.13 WHIP  9 BB/28 K  35.1 IP

• All Pucetas has done in his professional career is compile a 32-7 record with a 2.47 ERA and 69 BB/267 K’s over three levels.  Pucetas is not overpowering, but he locates his pitches well and doesn’t walk many hitters.  His thick 6-4 225 lb. frame should amply handle a heavy workload as an end of the rotation pitcher.  Pucetas will pitch at AA Connecticuit next season as a 24 year old. 

4.) Andrew Bailey—Oakland A’s RHP

1-0  1.29 ERA  1 SV  1 BB/16 K  14 IP

• Bailey has taken well to his new role as a power reliever.  After suffering through a difficult season at AA Midland, the A’s decided to let Bailey work in relief in Arizona where he showed good control and was able to overpower hitters with his 95 MPH fastball.  His heater has good movement and late-sinking life.  Bailey compliments the pitch with a powerful curveball that dives down in the zone with an effective two plane break.  The A’s organization is overloaded with starting pitchers and the move to the bullpen should allow Bailey to bump up his fastball a couple of notches.  Keep an eye on him at AAA this season as a possible late-inning call up as a compliment to closer Brad Ziegler.

3.) Max Scherzer—Arizona Diamondbacks RHP

1-0  3.38 ERA  0.88 WHIP  5 BB/24 K  24 IP

• Scherzer’s four starts were enough for the Diamondbacks to see that he is ready to inherit a rotation spot in Arizona’s talented rotation.  Scherzer can be downright overpowering at times with a mid-90’s fastball and promising slider.  Scherzer exhibited much better contol from September to now and it will be key for him to maintain that trend to be successful in 2009.  Scherzer will likely be a #4 or #5 guy initially with the potential to win 12-14 games next season.

2.) Phil Hughes—New York Yankees RHP

2-0  3.00 ERA  1.13 WHIP  13 BB/38 K  30 IP

• The biggest positive to Hughes’ AFL campaign was that completed the season fully healthy.  Hughes was ravaged with injuries this season and had trouble controlling the strike zone.  Hughes has all the potential in the world to be a top tier starting pitcher at the major league level.  The Yankees have been very protective of Hughes despite the barrage of requests from other teams of his services.  Hughes should win a rotation spot unless the Yankees decide to purchase the entire free agent market of pitchers.  He is the top SP prospect in the Yankees system and, given his spry age of 22, his future is still quite bright. 

1.) Tommy Hanson— Atlanta Braves RHP

5-0  0.63 ERA  0.59 WHIP  7 BB/49   28.2 IP

• How dominant was Hanson’s AFL season?  So dominant that he allowed just a .105 BA against him.  So dominant that, though he never pitched more than 5 innings in a game, he struck out 9 or more in four of seven starts.  Hanson’s arsenal of pitches have transcended from being promising to being elite.  His fastball has bumped up a few ticks to sit regularly at 93-95 MPH with great location and his curve has become a knee-buckling 12-6 breaking counter punch.  Hanson has a distinct shot of earning a rotation spot out of spring training, though it will be likely that he spends a little bit of time at AAA Gwinnett to start the season.  Regardless, Hanson, at just age 22, has become one of baseball’s top 5 pitching prospects.

Phoenix Desert Dogs **2008 AFL Champs**

Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

 VS.

Congratulations to the Phoenix Desert Dogs for winning their 5th consecutive Arizona Fall League title.  The Desert Dogs pounded the Mesa Solar Sox 10-4.  Solar Sox starter and Atlanta Braves top prospect Tommy Hanson hurled 5 sterling inning allowing just one run on 3 hits while striking out 8.  After Hanson left the game, the Desert Dogs proceded to hammer out 9 runs over the next two innings including a long 3-run blast by A’s 1B/C Josh Donaldson.  Here’s the breakdown of the performers.

 Phoenix Desert Dogs  10

• Josh Donaldson—3-4 HR 4 RBI 2R
• Danny Valencia—2-3 2R 3B 2 RBI BB
• Chris Nelson—2-4 R 2B
• Evan Frey—2-4 2B 3 RBI
• Dustin Martin—1-5 2B R RBI
• Eric Young Jr.—1-3 2 BB
• Jeff Manship—4.2 IP 8H 2 ER 2 BB 4K

 Mesa Solar Sox  4

• Tommy Hanson—5 IP 3H ER BB 8K
• Jeff Larish—2-4 HR 2 RBI
• Logan Morrison—2-4 R BB
• Scott Cousins—1-3 R BB
• Jason Donald—2-5
• Casper Wells—2-4 2B

Top 2008 Arizona Fall League Offensive Performances

Posted by Jeremy on November 22, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

The AFL wrapped up its regular season Thursday night with the Mesa Solar Sox and Phoenix Desert Dogs winning their respective divisions.  Mesa and Phoenix will square up for a championship game putting the finishing touches on a spectacular AFL season.  Much like I did with the Hawaiian Winter League wrap up, I have chosen 10 offensive performers who stood above the rest this season.

Top Offensive Performances

10.) Wes Hodges—Cleveland Indians 3B

.349/.368/.549  6 HR 26 RBI

• Hodges’ offense has been outstanding since the Indians selected him in the 2nd round of the ‘06 draft out of Georgia Tech.  Hodges has above average power and a smooth right handed swing that should hit for a good average at the MLB level.  Defensively, Hodges struggled at 3B all season making 28 errors and his struggles continued in the AFL.  Hodges will likely need to move to 1B where his 18-22 HR power becomes marginalized quite a bit.  Offensively, his game is quite similar to that of current Indians 1B/DH Ryan Garko.  Hodges has autographed 1st year cards in the 2007 Bowman Chrome that sell for $7-10 each.

9.) Scott Cousins—Florida Marlins OF

.297/.385/.624  6 HR 33 RBI 28 R

• Cousins started the AFL season slow, but really heated up in the second half of the season.  Cousins has considerable tools and athleticism.  Some who have watched him compares his left handed swing with that of Braves future HOF’er Chipper Jones.  Cousins main detractor has been his ability to stay healthy as he was limited to just 78 games this season at High-A Jupiter and AA Carolina.  Cousins is one of many talented OF in the Marlins’ organization which makes his future somewhat uncertain.  Cousins is a relatively unknown commodity right now, though, which makes his 2006 Bowman Chrome refractors ($2-3) and 2008 Bowman Chrome autographs ($3.50-5.00) low cost purchases right now.

8.) Jeff Larish—Detroit Tigers 1B

.331/.410/.548  6 HR 29 RBI 34 R (18 BB/25 K)

• Larish spent time between AAA Toledo and Detroit this season belting 23 HR and 80 RBI.  The Tigers used him at both 1B and 3B as well as DH as a left-hand hitting platoon player.  Jeff has above average power and he has shown the ability in the past to work counts and draw walks.  Larish will never hit for a high average at the big league level which will likely relegate him to the role of part time player.  At 26 years old, there is not much hope for Larish to develop into much more.

7.) Drew Sutton—Houston Astros 2B/SS/3B

.315/.426/.611  7 HR  24 RBI 32 R (24 BB/31 K)

• Sutton enjoyed his greatest season as a pro hitting .317 with 20 HR 69 RBI 20 SB and102 runs scored at AA Corpus Christi.  Additionally, Sutton has impeccable plate discipline, grinding out 100 BB between AA and the AFL this season.  Sutton can play any infield position, though he profiles best as a 2B.  Kaz Matsui is signed through the 2010 season, though Sutton should get his fair share of playing time as a super utility guy.  Sutton is the best middle infield prospect prospect in the truly horrible Houston farm system.  His bat is ready and it is high time that a major manufacturer produces his 1st year cards.

6.) Rhyne Hughes—Tampa Bay Rays 1B

.394/.432/.652  5 HR 27 RBI 12 doubles

• Hughes is an older prospect who has below average power as a 1B and subpar plate discipline.  That said, he had a fine AFL campaign and should play next season at AAA Durham.  His 2008 Bowman Chrome cards are readily available for 10-25 cent each, though his long term values should not rise much, if at all, above those totals.

5.) Mike McKenry—Colorado Rockies C

.369/.430/.652   9 HR 25 RBI

• McKenry finished second in the AFL in HR’s and his 18 HR at High-A Modesto shows that he profiles to be a power hitting catcher at the major league level.  McKenry is built like a brick at 5-9 210 lb. and he has solid plate discipline, though he strikes out often.  His average took a dip during the regular season in the hitter-friendly California League though his fine AFL showing gives me the notion that this may have been an aberration.  Defensively, McKenry needs improvement blocking balls, though his strong arm and solid athleticism gives reason to believe that he will improve.  McKenry is a couple seasons away but he is worth keeping an eye on.

4.) Jason Donald—Philadelphia Phillies SS/2B

.407/.476/.747  5 HR 17 RBI 23 R 12 doubles

• Donald’s track record of success seems to increase with each new challenge.  Donald had a successful AA season at Reading hitting .307 with 14 HR 57 RBI before heading to Beijing to lead Team USA to the Bronze Medal in the ‘08 Olympics.  Donald’s opportunity to play with the Phillies was thought to be limited as he had all-stars Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley ahead of him.  How things have changed.  Chase Utley is scheduled to have hip surgery which should keep him out until at least mid-June.  Donald will compete with veteran utility man Eric Bruntlett for a majority of the playing time.  Donald reminds me of Red Sox SS Jed Lowrie and his impact could be quite similar come April.

3.) Logan Morrison—Florida Marlins 1B

.404/.444/.667  5 HR  29 RBI  23 R

• Morrison has drawn rave reviews from anyone who has seen him play in person.  Morrison has a sweet left-handed swing that generates easy power to all fields.  There has been some conjecture that Morrison may get an opportunity to earn a roster spot with the Marlins now since the trade of Mike Jacobs.  He’ll get a long look in spring training, but should start the ‘09 season at AA Jacksonville.  Make no mistake, Morrison is Florida’s 1B of the future.  Currently, Morrison has 1st year autos in the 2008 Donruss Threads set and is preliminarily slated to have an auto in the upcoming Bowman Chrome Draft set.  If this comes to fruition, it will be one of the most highly demanded cards in the set.

2.) Tyler Flowers—Atlanta Braves C/1B

.387/.460/.973  12 HR  23 RBI  25 R

• That’s right, that .973 number up there is his SLG% and not his OPS%.  Flowers’ stock has increases significantly this fall.  Flowers is a massive 6-4 245 lb. power hitter with top notch plate discipline and decent athleticism.  The Braves moved Flowers behind the plate full time this season and he has worked hard to refine his receiving skills.  Flowers has a strong arm and decent athleticism that could play well at a corner infield position should he continue to struggle behind the plate.  Watch to see what the Braves organization decides to do with him at AA Mississippi this next season.  I would like to see him get some time at 3B as Chipper Jones’ eventual replacement.  The thought of having a corner infield of Flowers and Freddie Freeman within the next couple of years is enough to make any Braves fan salivate.  Flowers’ bat makes him a potential All-Star no matter where he plays and his big league debut should happen in early 2010.  Flowers has 1st year autographs in the 2008 Bowman Threads set and they are red hot right now selling for $30-35 on eBay.

1.) Eric Young Jr.—Colorado Rockies OF

.430/.504/.640  5 HR  20 RBI  20 SB  37 R  (12 BB/14 K)

• Young has vaulted himself to the top tier of Colorado’s prospect chart with his game changing speed and surprising boost in power.  Young overcame some early season injuries to bat .290 with 3 HR 36 RBI and 46 SB.  Young’s defense at 2B improved drastically from seasons past, though many believe that he will eventually be a good OF with plus-plus range.  Watch to see how the Rockies decide to use him in spring training as that should give bearing to where his future destination will be.  Young has more value as a 2B with top of the order speed and plate discipline.  Young’s cards in the various 2007 Bowman sets can all be had for under $1 each and seem like solid values.

Man, that was a difficult list to compile!  There were so many super efforts from intriguing prospects that were left off of the list.  Feel free to add your contributions and stay tuned for my Top 5 pitching performers from the AFL which should be posted by tomorrow morning.

Philadelphia Phillies/Texas Rangers Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 21, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis | Be the First to Comment

Last night’s transaction between the World Series-winning Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers marked an unusual occurrance in baseball trade market as each team exchanged one minor league player for another.  Former 2004 1st round pick OF Greg Golson heads to the Texas Rangers in exchange for 2005 1st rounder John Mayberry Jr.  Here’s a closer look at the parties involved in the deal.

Greg Golson:

• Golson had a solid season at AA Reading batting .282 with 13 HR 60 RBI and 23 SB.  Golson has top of the order speed and enough pop to be an solid top of the lineup offensive catalyst.  However, Golson racks up strikeouts at an alarming rate racking up 623 K’s in 511 career games.  The Rangers made the deal for Golson due to his Gold Glove caliber defense in CF.  This move will allow Josh Hamilton to move to his more natural position of RF, shifting David Murphy to LF.  Golson will not need to be a power hitter with the Rangers as their lineup possesses enough to light up all of the state of Texas.  Perhaps this will allow for him to focus more on working counts and improving his OB% which was just .333 last season.  Golson’s Rangers future is likely as a part-time defensive and baserunning specialist as the starting OF is chocked full of more intriguing hitters like Josh Hamilton, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz.  This doesn’t bode well for his 2004 rookie cards.

John Mayberry Jr.:

• The son of former New York Yankees OF John Mayberry has not fully lived up to the potential that his athletic 6-6 230 lb. frame projects.  Mayberry split time between AA Frisco and AAA Oklahoma City batting .264 with 20 HR 74 RBI and 10 SB.  On the surface, these numbers are decent, though in hitter friendly environments like Frisco and OKC and given Mayberry’s age and talent, they are quite mediocre.  Perhaps the move to the world champs will jump start Mayberry’s career similar to how it did for Jayson Werth.  Werth is an ideal comp for Mayberry as a long, strong, and athletic OF who has taken a while to refine his considerable skill set into consistent production.  Given Pat Burrell’s inevitable departure via free-agency, Mayberry may get that chance as early as April.  Watch to see how Mayberry produces in the Grapefruit League this spring.  If he is successful, he may break camp with the Phillies as a 4th outfielder.  The Phillies are rumored to be making a push to sign Seattle Mariners free-agent OF Raul Ibanez.  If they sign him, this will cut into Mayberry’s opportunities with the big club.  At 25 years old, Mayberry needs to take a major step forward this season to show that he can be ready for more regular AB’s in a big league uniform.  With much more projectible players like Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor ascending quickly, Mayberry’s greatest value to the Phillies may be as a mid-season trading chip.

This trade was interesting as each side trimmed some of their surplusses in exchange for other needs.  Both Golson and Mayberry should play in some capacity with their new teams this season, though it it likely that neither will earn a starting spot this season.  If you have any of their rookie cards, wait for a string of good performances (especially in spring training when hope and speculation abounds) and SELL accordingly.

Your thoughts and opinions are always welcome!