Top 20 First Base Prospects for 2009

Hello everyone!  Sorry for the delay in getting this list out.  I have been away from the keyboard the past couple of days only to find that a vast influx of readers have stopped by to check things out.  To those of you who are new to Porter’s Prospect Report, please feel free to drop a line and say howdy.  Thank you to all for reading and I hope you enjoy this installment of the Top 20 prospects as we make our way down the 1st base line. 

As expected, this list was even more difficult to rank than the catchers, thanks in large part to a handful of 2008 draftees who all have bright futures ahead of them but not a whole lot of professional data to mull over.  Without further ado, here’s the list…

#1.) Justin Smoak—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Massive power from both sides of the plate a la Mark Teixeira.  He also has excellent plate discipline and is an above average defensive 1B.  The biggest question about Smoak is:  Why did he slip all the way to the 10th spot in the draft?

Weaknesses: He will not set any land speed records on the bases and his defensive acumen does not extend beyond 1B.

2009 Outlook: Smoak played in the Arizona Fall League briefly which indicates to me that he will start his season with High-A Bakersfield in the California League.  Given that tasty tidbit of info, it is quite likely that he will put up some gaudy numbers and a trip to AA Frisco on the Texas Ranger fast track is, by no means, out of the question.

2.) Lars Anderson—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lars is a polished hitter with a tall, powerful frame that will develop more power as he matures.  He drives just about everything that he swings at and utilizes top notch plate discipline to boot.  Defensively, Anderson is a whiz with the potential to earn Gold Gloves in future seasons.

Weaknesses: Much like Smoak, Anderson is not a particularly quick baserunner and his defensive abilities are limited to first base.

2009 Outlook: The Red Sox are pretty well set with Youkilis manning the controls for the next couple of seasons and Mike Lowell and David Ortiz signed through 2010.  That should keep Anderson at AAA for the entire season with, perhaps a September cameo possible this season.  Lars is too good to keep down for long and the Red Sox may decide to get creative this off season to prepare room for their #1 overall prospect.

3.) Logan Morrison—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Like Smoak and Anderson, Morrison employs a lethal combination of power, batting average and plate discipline to make him one of the league’s up an coming sluggers.  His numbers in the Arizona Fall League (.404 5 HR 29 RBI) shows that his ’08 dip in power may be an aberration.

Weaknesses: He is an average fielder at 1B, and his boost in batting average in ’08 came at the expense of some of his power.  While he has the potential to hit for both, there is an ever so slight uncertainty that it will happen.

2009 Overview: AA should provide a good bearing on Logan’s projectible future.  If his AFL contributions are any indicator, Gaby Sanchez’s reign as the Marlins’ starting 1B will be a very short one.

4.) Yonder Alonso—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A solid high average bat that should produce at least 20-25 HR power in the major leagues.  His plate discipline and patience may be the best from any prospect in the ’08 draft class as well.

Weaknesses: He is a fringe average defensive 1B who has virtually no shot at playing any other positions.  He has a pudgy frame that could add unwanted, performance detracting weight in future seasons.

2009 Overview: Alonso’s polish and sterling performance in the Hawaiian Winter League should allow him to jump directly to AA Carolina for the beginning of the ’09 season.  The Reds are well set with Joey Votto performing the every day duties at 1B, but Alonso’s bat will not wait long in the Reds’ farm system.  Votto has the ability to play LF, though, and it seems reasonable that he could move there to make room for Yonder by 2010.

5.) Freddie Freeman—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Freeman has just scratched the surface of what his towering and powerful frame can produce.  He shows an incredible aptitude for driving in runs and driving the ball to all fields and scouts say that the ball sounds different coming off of his bat.  Defensively, Freeman has good instincts around the bag and a strong arm as well.

Weaknesses: His 6-5 220 lb. frame has the potential to build quite a bit more bulk, which should cut into his athleticism even further.  He will also have to increase his walk totals as he progresses.

2009 Outlook: The Braves should send Freeman to High-A Myrtle Beach to team with OF prospects Jason Heyward.  Freeman will be just 19 this season and his potential to be an elite power hitter could boost him to the top of this list in the next season or two.

6.) Kyle Blanks—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Blanks is a hitting machine, lacing line drives to the gaps and piling up RBI’s in bunches.  He has solid plate discipline and his nimble feet around 1B belies his behemoth-like frame.

Weaknesses: His 6-6 270 lb. frame has some softness and could be an injury culpability over time.  Despite his size, Blanks doesn’t drive balls for power to the opposite field much.  This could just be an approach thing that could be rectified with more work.  Also, his defensive skill set doesn’t extend beyond the first base bag, which siginificantly limits his opportunities with San Diego.

2009 Outlook: The Padres already have a pretty good 1B in Adrian Gonzalez which means that Blanks should get a heavy dose of AAA pitching this season.  Gonzo’s contract extends through 2011 and the price tag is quite low.  This makes Blanks a prime candidate for a change of scenery as a high-value trading chip within the next season or two.

7.) Eric Hosmer—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Prime time power potential and the ability to hit for a high average.  Hosmer was the most polished prep hitter of the ’08 draft.  His defense has also drawn rave reviews as his range, arm strength, and soft hands are all well above average.

Weaknesses: Not enough data at the major league level.  His plate disicpline at a pro level and power output will be monitored closely.  Like many big hitters, Hosmer’s long arms can make him more culpable to being jammed by pitches up and in.

2009 Outlook: The Royals are flush with 1B prospects througout their system, but Hosmer is far and away the best of the bunch.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hosmer get a shot at full season Low-A Burlington come April.

8.) David Cooper—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Has the potential to be a future batting champion.  Cooper hits frozen ropes from foul line to foul line with the potential to hit 25-30 HR per season. 

Weaknesses: He is not an exceptional defensive player and has below average speed.

2009 Outlook: After playing at three levels last season, it is quite apparent that Cooper is on a fast track to Toronto.  The Blue Jays have current 1B Lyle Overbay signed through the 2010 season, which should provide Cooper with ample time to put the finishing touches on his development.  He should spend most of the season at AA New Hampshire but a promotion to AAA Syracuse and, perhaps, a September audition in Rogers Centre could also be in the cards.

9.) Kila Ka’aihue—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Ka’aihue’s ’08 season was remarkable in every way.  Eye popping power production, a .300+ batting average and more than 100 walks made him a pitcher’s nightmare at multiple levels. 

Weaknesses: His incredible ’08 season represents a huge spike over the production from the previous four years worth of statistics.  Has he taken a step forward in development or is this a one year aberration?  His defense at 1B is only so-so and he may profile better as a DH.

2009 Outlook: No one was more disappointed with the Royals’ trade for Mike Jacobs than Kila Ka’aihue.  This development ensures that the Hawaiian slugger will either be mired in a part time 1B/DH gig with K.C. or, more likely, will head to AAA Omaha to demonstrate that he can re-enact his numbers from last season.

10.) Chris Carter—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Chris Carter may just be the king of the HR hitters on this power-packed list.  Even more scary is the fact that his 39 HR from ’08 may be peanuts compared to what he could produce once his 6-4 210 lb. frame fills out a bit more.  Carter has shown a willingness to draw walks and his 32 doubles hit shows a willingness to be a more complete hitter.

Weaknesses: Carter strikes out…a lot. His mediocre batting average in the California League infers that his all or nothing approach could be exploited at higher levels.  The A’s have also struggled to find a defensive home for Carter, as he has spent time at 1B, 3B, and in the OF with ho-hum results. 

2009 Outlook: Carter will take his big bat to AA Midland to prove that the friendly skies of Stockton did not influence his HR totals.  While his power is prestigious, Carter has several wrinkles in his game that still need to be ironed out over the next couple of seasons.

11.) Angel Villalona—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Off the charts power projectibility.  Villalona has the ideal frame and swing to be a league-leading HR hitter.  He is agile for his size and should be a solid fielder akin to the former All-Star 1B Andres Galarraga.  Villalona is described by many within the Giants’ organization as being a humble, likeable person with a good work ethic.

Weaknesses: 18 BB vs. 118 K’s.  Villalona is an overly aggressive hitter who has rudimentry pitch recognition.  His strapping body has some baby fat on it which, if not trimmed down, could have detrimental effects on his athletic abilities.

2009 Outlook: Villalona improved as the season progressed which should earn him a promotion to High-A San Jose.  If he struggles though, he may head back to Augusta for more refining.  At just 18 years old, the sky is the limit for Angel.

12.) Sean Doolittle—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Doolittle is a polished hitter with promising gap power with an athletic and projectible 6-3 190 lb. frame.  He his has the ability to play 1B at a Gold Glove level, but his range and arm strength also makes him a viable outfielder as well.

Weaknesses: Sean’s strikeout totals (154 in 135 games) were uncharacteristically high, perhaps due to the fact that he made a more concerted effort to increase his power numbers. 

2009 Outlook: Doolittle’s solid showing in the Arizona Fall League (.293 8 HR 26 RBI) may earn him a promotion to AAA Sacramento for the start of the ’09 season.  It is quite difficult to figure out where the former Virginia Cavalier will play in Oakland as the roster is already overflowing with OF’s and 1B.  Things should really open up for Doolittle in 2010 as Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi will be gone and the Daric Barton era at 1B will likely come to an end.

13.) Beau Mills—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths:  Mills offers a comprehensive package of average and power potential.  His 6-3 220 lb. frame is strong and durable.  Beau has good MLB bloodlines as his dad Brad Mills is a former MLB player and the Boston Red Sox bench coach.  His makeup and leadership skills have been lauded by the Indians’ organization.

Weaknesses: Like many 1B prospects, Mills is limited athletically and has slow footspeed.  He was a poor fielding 3B in college and his defensive potential as a 1B has yet to be determined. 

2009 Outlook: Mills showed good offensive numbers in a pitching friendly environment last season.  He moves to AA Akron to hopefully build on his promising power numbers.  The Indians will have some interesting decisions to make within the next couple of seasons as several promising power hitters like Matt LaPorta, Wes Hodges, and Nick Weglarz are all players whose defensive deficiencies in other areas may relegate them to becoming inadvertent competitors with MIlls at 1B.

14.) Brandon Allen—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths:  Built like an NFL linebacker, Allen may be the most complete athlete on this list.  His power-packed bat has the potential to hit 30+ HR per season and he should also be able to produce 10-15 SB per year as well.  Allen nearly doubled his walk totals and his increased power did not have a negative effect on his K rate.

Weaknesses: Allen is still trying to figure things out defensively.  He has oscillated between the outfield and first base, but has yet to truly master either position.  His strikeout totals are still a bit too high and he will never contend for a batting average title.

2009 Outlook: Allen handled the challenges of AA ball exceedingly well, but there is no real need for the White Sox to rush him along yet.  Paul Konerko is signed through 2010, though it seems probable that Chicago will try to move him before then.  Allen needs to tune up his hands and footwork , and AA seems to be the best place to do it.  If he continues to mash, a promotion to AAA should happen at some point in ’09.  Allen is just 23 years old and his future in the launching pad known as “The Cell” is quite promising.

15.) Brandon Snyder—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Snyder’s second half performance and his stint in the Arizona Fall League makes him a prime time breakout candidate for 2009.  Brandon has the potential to be a .300+ hitter with good power to the alleys.  His defense at 1B should be much better than it was as a catcher or third baseman too.

Weaknesses: Plate discipline still needs refining.  Snyder has a tendency to be overly aggressive and streaky at times.  He also has a stocky build that could add athletically inhibitive pounds as he ages.

2009 Outlook: AA Bowie will be a good test for Snyder.  The Eastern League, especially early in the season, can be tough on young hitters and their power numbers.  If he continues his torrid pace, Brandon’s stock could rise significantly.  The Orioles were hot bidders in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, which indicates their desire to add a big time bat to their infield.  Snyder has an opportunity this season to make the O’s believe that he can fill that void.

16.) Chris Marrero—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Limitless power projectibility and a sweet right-handed swing that can potentially hit for a high batting average.  Unlike many young power hitters, Marrero has a good feel for the strike zone and doesn’t rack up big strikeout totals.

Weaknesses: Injuries cut his 2008 season to just 70 games.  His 6-3 210 lb. frame is not overly athletic and it has been difficult for him to find a defensive home. 

2009 Outlook: Marrero has reportedly worked hard this offseason to get himself into tip-top shape for the ’09 season.  Expect him to start at High-A Potomac again to shake the rust off.  If all goes well, he could find himself back on Washington’s fast track and his status on this list could rise significantly.

17.) Gaby Sanchez—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Sanchez is a line drive hitter with average power and very good plate discipline.  He has put a great deal of effort into sculpting his body and increasing his athleticism.  Unlike most 1B prospects, Sanchez is not a liability on the basepaths.  In fact he has the potential to accrue double-digit SB numbers at the major league level. 

Weaknesses:  Gaby is an older prospect who has maxed out physically and likely will not develop above average power numbers.  Additionally, Sanchez appears to be a victim of circumstance as the highly touted Logan Morrison is knocking on the door to his major league career.

2009 Outlook: Sanchez has a good shot at winning the opening day nod for the Marlins in ’09.  While he doesn’t hit for as much power as recently departed Mike Jacobs, his blend of batting average and plate discipline should be welcome additions to this power-packed lineup.

18.) Allan Dykstra—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: At 6-5 220 lb., Dykstra is the prototypical statuesque power hitting lefty with a decent glove and advanced plate discipline.

Weaknesses: In the same vein of protypical 1B, Dykstra is athletically limited and a liability on the basepaths.  On a list of top-tier corner infielders, Dykstra is a solid but unspectacular talent.

2009 Overview: Dykstra is a few levels behind top prospect Kyle Blanks, which allows the Padres time to bring him along at a leisurely pace and to further decide what to do about their depth at 1B.  The Wake Forest alum is a few years away from his major league debut and, by that time, we will have a much better bearing on what can be expected from him in his major league career.

19.) Mark Trumbo—L.A. Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Trumbo has a classic power hitter’s swing that generates a high percentage of long flyballs.  He has put in great efforts to increase his strength and agility and the dividends are apparently paying off.

Weaknesses: The bulk of Trumbo’s numbers were accrued at Rancho Cucamonga, which has a history of inflating offensive performances (remember Brandon Wood’s 2005 season?).  Mark will be hard pressed to replicate those numbers at higher levels as his athleticism could limit him.  Additionally, his 33 BB/96 K ratio is less than desirable for someone of his power potential.

2009 Outlook: Kendry Morales is finally getting his shot at the starting gig in L.A.  His performance will dictate the pace at which Trumbo is promoted this coming season.  It is quite possible that Mark will start the ’09 season back at Arkansas in hopes that he regains the power stroke that betrayed him in the AFL (1 HR in 154 AB).  Conventional wisdom should show that he is not quite as good as his Rancho Cucamonga numbers indicated.

20.) Mike Carp—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Superb plate discipline and a line drive bat that hits line drives to all fields.  Carp has a good work ethic and showed resilience by bouncing back from a bad 2007 season.

Weaknesses: Carp’s power potential is significantly less than the other prospects on this list.  He is not a particularly good defensive player and he still struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  Put that all together and you have a platooning DH. 

2009 Outlook: The Mariners are, to say the least, a team in transition.  The assortment of 1B currently on the M’s roster is far from formidable.  Carp will start the season at AAA Tacoma, but there is a realistic shot that he will earn a call up at some point.  At just 22 years old, Carp could still develop into a Lyle Overbay-type player.

Others to consider: Brandon Laird, Anthony Rizzo, Ike Davis, Juan Miranda, Kala Ka’aihue, Joe Koshansky, Chris Parmelee, Michael Durant

Next up are the 2nd basemen, I should have them up within the next 48 HRs.  Enjoy!