MLB Report: Matt Wieters May Start ‘09 in AAA
Posted by Jeremy on February 15, 2009 under Uncategorized | 
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Hey Norfolk, watch him while you can!
I just read a story from Minor League Baseball that detailed the Baltimore Orioles’ cautious approach to the development of their #1 prospect Matt Wieters. Praise and platitudes abound for the switch-hitting backstop, but starting Wieters at AAA Norfolk makes perfect sense.
Wieters did indeed have a remarkable 2008 season, perhaps the best season in all of MILB, but his performance in the Arizona Fall League was somewhat unremarkable (.301 1 HR 12 RBI in 20 games) and the Orioles are still about a season or two away from becoming serious contenders in the AL East. Delaying Wieters’ MLB debut for a month allows the organization to hold back the hands of the arbitration clock for a full season. In the case of a prospect of Wieters’ projectible talent, this could save the organization upwards of $10 million.
One month O’s fans….it’s worth it.
What does that mean for the long term value of his cards? Probably not much. Matt Wieters has become a household name in collecting circles and the anticipation of his major league debut will grow with Grapefruit League at bat. The short term market for his RC’s could fluctuate quite a bit more. Many collectors expect that Wieters will be the O’s opening day catcher and news of him heading to Norfolk in April could cause a slight dip in the market demand for his cards.
This situation happened last season with the almighty Evan Longoria. Collectors thought that it was a foregone conclusion that he would break camp with the Rays in April, but he was sent to Durham until his debut in May. The market for his cards did, in fact, dipped more than 20% during that time as baseball card enthusiasts collectively turned their attention to other early season success stories. One Longoria made his debut, the market for his RC’s picked up again and the rest is history.
I see a similar situation brewing with Wieters. While it still remains a possibility that he will start the season with Baltimore, AAA seems to be the more prudent option. I predict that his cards will see a gradual appreciation over the next 5-6 weeks before taking a noticable (but not tumultuous) dip in April. He’ll be back up in May and, most likely, so will the prices of his cards.