Top 20 Outfield Prospects for 2009 (Part 1)

Posted by Jeremy on February 24, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Are you ready for a banger of a list?  I originally made a list of about 50 OF that could potentially find their way onto this list and had a dickens of a time narrowing it down to the top 20.  This link will contain the top 10 and a following link will have 11-20. 

If you are on your best behavior….I will add a gratuitous third list covering ranks 21-30.

I was oscillating between three strong candidates for the top honors on the list.  I chose to go with youthful upside over polish and experience.  Jason Heyward exceeded the lofty expectations heaped upon him by the baseball prospecting world by decimating pitching in his first dose of full season ball.  As good as his season was, he has yet to even chisel through the surface of his mountainous potential. 

 

1.) Jason Heyward—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

ROM	SAL	.323	120	449	88	145	27	6	11	52	217	49	74	15	3	.388	.483	.871
MYR	CAR	.182	7	22	3	4	2	0	0	4	6	2	4	0	0	.240	.273	.513
Minors		.316	127	471	91	149	29	6	11	56	223	51	78	15	3	.381	.473	.854

 

 

Strengths: Where to begin with this youngster?  Heyward has off the charts power potential, plus speed, a cannon for an arm, and has shown an ability to hit for a high average with excellent plate discipline.  Heyward is an intelligent ballplayer who carries his lunchpail to work day in and day out.

Weaknesses: Just experience at this point.  Chances are that he will lose some of his speed as he ages and will become more of a slugger.  He did struggle in his brief time at High-A Myrtle Beach, but there is no reason to believe that this will be a prolonged problem for the 19 year old southpaw.

2009 Outlook: Heyward gets a  taste of the Braves’ big league camp this spring but his early regular season months will be spent back at Myrtle Beach.  There’s a big possibility that he will earn a promotion to AA Mississippi at some point.  Heyward is a fast track player and one of baseball’s most intriguing prospects.

 

2.) Travis Snider—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUN	FSL	.279	17	61	15	17	5	0	4	7	34	5	22	1	0	.333	.557	.891
NHM	EAS	.262	98	362	65	95	21	0	17	67	167	52	116	1	1	.357	.461	.818
SYR	INT	.344	18	64	9	22	5	0	2	17	33	4	16	1	0	.386	.516	.901
Minors		.275	133	487	89	134	31	0	23	91	234	61	154	3	1	.358	.480	.838
MLB		.301	24	73	9	22	6	0	2	13	34	5	23	0	0	.338	.466	.803

 

 

Strengths: Jaw dropping power potential.  Snider has a thick muscular build that generates incredible torque from a left handed swing that produces tape measure moon shots.  He is a gritty player who works hard in all aspects of his game.  He is more athletic than he looks and profiles as an pretty good RF with a rocket arm.

Weaknesses: The price for great power is a prolific number of strikeouts.  Snider’s high K rates lends him to be streaky at times at the plate.  He is just 20 years old, but has already maxed out physically.  He should lose some of his average speed as he ages and could be a risk for injuries.

2009 Outlook: Snider looks to have a starting OF spot locked up before spring starts.  He is a prime candidate for the ‘09 A.L. Rookie of the Year award, but he could be afflicted by a post debut slump just as well.  Long term, there is plenty to be excited about in this youngster.

 

3.) Cameron Maybin—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CAR	SOU	.277	108	390	73	108	15	8	13	49	178	60	124	21	7	.375	.456	.831
Minors		.277	108	390	73	108	15	8	13	49	178	60	124	21	7	.375	.456	.831
MLB		.500	8	32	9	16	2	0	0	2	18	3	8	4	0	.543	.563	1.105

 

 

Strengths: Maybin has a wide assortment of tools emanating from a highly athletic and strong 6-4 205 lb. frame.  Cameron possesses track star speed and sinewy strength that should make him a perennial 20 HR/20 SB player and, possibly, a 30 HR/30 SB threat in future seasons.  He covers a ton of real estate in CF while running good routes on balls and employs excellent arm strength as well.

Weaknesses: His performance has yet to match his tools.  Maybin was rushed through the Tigers farm system and the results were lackluster.  The Marlins have taken a more prudent approach to his development, which seems to have rendered more positive results.  He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough.  This affects his ability to get on base at higher levels and utilize his game changing speed.  He has considerable power potential, but doesn’t seem to know quite how to tap into it.  He hits a high rate of groundballs and struggles at times to generate the necessary swing trajectory to drive pitches.

2009 Outlook: Maybin is ready to become a full time major league hitter.  His development is not quite consummated, but his skill set is too good to keep down on the farm any longer.  Maybin has the potential to be the National League’s best rookie in 2009, but his plate discipline and ability to drive the ball need to improve.  Eventually, his skills should win out and translate to a highly productive major league career.

 

4.) Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CAR	GCL	.556	3	9	1	5	1	0	1	2	9	3	2	0	0	.667	1.000	1.667
PBC	FSL	.000	3	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	.182	.000	.182
MEM	PCL	.251	90	331	56	83	15	0	11	36	131	49	72	15	3	.346	.396	.742
Minors		.252	96	349	58	88	16	0	12	38	140	53	77	15	3	.351	.401	.752

 

 

Strengths: Rasmus has an exciting blend of speed and power potential that could land him at the top of a lineup or in the middle.  He has shown an ability to draw walks and is an impact player on the basepaths.  Defensively, Rasmus is as good as they come.  His spectacular plays and vast range reminds some of a former Gold Glove CF that patrolled Busch Stadium for years, Jim Edmonds.

Weaknesses: Injuries hampered Rasmus last season and for the second season in a row, Colby struggled in the early parts of the season.  Additionally, Colby has yet to display the ability to hit for a high average since his 2006 numbers at short season Quad Cities.

2009 Outlook: The Cardinals seem ready to have Rasmus challenge to take over the everyday CF duties on Opening Day.  Rasmus has the ability to put up Grady Sizemore-like numbers in future seasons, but odds are that he will suffer some growing pains in his first couple of seasons.  Hopefully they will be limited to performance and not health.

 

5.) Matt LaPorta—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
HUN	SOU	.288	84	302	56	87	23	2	20	66	174	45	63	2	1	.402	.576	.978
AKR	EAS	.233	17	60	6	14	1	0	2	8	21	4	12	0	0	.299	.350	.649
Minors		.279	101	362	62	101	24	2	22	74	195	49	75	2	1	.386	.539	.924

 

 

Strengths: LaPorta has 30-40 HR power potential and the ability to hit for a high average as well.  Matt is a polished hitter with good plate discipline and above average hand-eye coordination.  LaPorta has an engaging personality that makes him a positive presence in every clubhouse and a potential team leader.

Weaknesses: Matt struggled after being traded to Cleveland, but those shouldn’t affect his long term development.  He is a fringe average defensive player as both an outfielder and first baseman.  He may end up as a DH in future seasons.  He has below average speed that makes him a coagulant on the bases.

2009 Outlook:  Matt will make his MLB debut at some point this season, probably after May.  Expect him to rebound from last year’s struggles at Akron to hit very well at AAA Columbus.  Once he arrives, his power bat should anchor the middle of the Indians lineup for several seasons to come.

 

6.) Dexter Fowler—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
TUL	TEX	.335	108	421	92	141	31	9	9	64	217	65	89	20	8	.431	.515	.946
Minors		.335	108	421	92	141	31	9	9	64	217	65	89	20	8	.431	.515	.946
MLB		.154	13	26	3	4	0	0	0	0	4	0	5	0	1	.185	.154	.339

 

 

Strengths: Fowler is an exciting athlete with top of the order speed and the ability to hit for average and decent power numbers.  He has exhibited a great deal of patience at the plate which results in a high number of walks.  Defensively, Dexter is exciting to watch.  He tracks down balls well in the gaps making highlight reel plays and his strong arm should play anywhere.  He is an intelligent player who once turned down a basketball scholarship to Harvard.

Weaknesses: Fowler needs to continue to get stronger.  His wiry frame doesn’t quite produce the pop that people anticipate he will eventually develop.  He had a problem with injuries in the past, though his ‘08 season was injury free. 

2009 Outlook: Fowler has a great shot to make the club out of spring training as Ryan Spilborghs is his only competition in CF.  A good showing this spring should relegate Spilborghs to the 4th oufielder spot.  If things don’t go well in spring training, the Rockies may elect to send him to Colorado Springs for some fine tuning.  Fowler is a prime top of the lineup candidate whose best years are ahead of him.

 

7.) Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
IND	INT	.283	135	512	75	145	26	3	9	50	204	68	87	34	19	.372	.398	.770
Minors		.283	135	512	75	145	26	3	9	50	204	68	87	34	19	.372	.398	.770

 

 

Strengths: Top of the lineup skills that includes elite speed that can steal 25-30 bases per MLB season, and an advanced, patient approach at the plate that draws a high amount of walks.  McCutchen has a highly athletic and wiry frame that has intriguing power potential.  He has put on some muscle in the offseason which could well translate into more HR’s.  He plays with an elevated level of confidence and seems to put up better numbers after every promotion.  McCutchen’s also has the potential to be a Gold Glove outfielder with a propensity to make spectacular plays.

Weaknesses: The power hasn’t developed as some have expected, perhaps partly due being rushed through the Pirates’ system.  Also, he needs to be more disciplined on the basepaths as well.  McCutchen was caught stealing 19 times in 53 chances last season.

2009 Outlook: The long awaited MLB debut for Andrew McCutchen will happen this season, but not in April.  The Pirates would like to have him play every day and are still trying to assess the potential productivity of Steven Pearce, Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan.  Once McCutchen makes his debut, he should rise to the challenge and be the rock solid impact player atop Pittsburgh’s lineup for the next several years.

 

8.) Fernando Martinez—New York Mets

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
MTS	GCL	.429	4	14	2	6	1	1	0	0	9	0	2	0	0	.467	.643	1.110
BIN	EAS	.287	86	352	48	101	19	4	8	43	152	27	73	6	2	.340	.432	.772
Minors		.292	90	366	50	107	20	5	8	43	161	27	75	6	2	.345	.440	.785

 

 

Strengths: Martinez has a quick swing that generates good leverage that should be able to produce 25-30 HR per season within the next couple of years.  Those who watch him rave about his advanced hitting approach and feel that he can evolve into a .300 hitter. 

Weaknesses: He’s been bitten by the injury bug over the past couple of seasons which has hampered some of his development.  Aside from his outstanding bat, his other skills are average.  The Mets organization would like to see him demonstrate more patience at the plate as advanced pitchers will find ways to get him out.

2009 Outlook: F-Mart is on the cusp of a big time breakout.  His performance in the Dominican Winter League gave a brief glimpse of power to come.  The Mets will likely start him at AAA Buffalo before bringing him up for his MLB debut in the second half of the season.  The offensive ceiling for this 20 year old is incredibly high and someday his name may be mentioned in the same breath as David Wright and Jose Reyes.

 

9.) Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
GBO	SAL	.293	125	468	89	137	26	3	39	97	286	58	153	4	2	.381	.611	.993
Minors		.293	125	468	89	137	26	3	39	97	286	58	153	4	2	.381	.611	.993

 

 

Strengths: The ball explodes off of this kid’s bat.  To project him as a 40 HR hitter may be underestimating his potential ceiling.  At 6-5 225 lb., Stanton is built like a statue but has the athleticism of an NFL wide receiver.  His plus speed and arm strength makes him a prototypical RF in the mold of Dave Winfield.  He is an intelligent young man with a great work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: 158 punchouts is to high, even for a hitter with Stanton’s immense power.  He is fooled quite easily by breaking pitches and still has a raw feel for the strike zone.  Despite his good speed, Michael Stanton doesn’t steal many bags-a trend that should continue as he matures. 

2009 Outlook: A 39 HR season as a 19 year old puts Stanton on the fast track.  He should start the season at High-A Jupiter and could earn a promotion to AA Jacksonville if all goes well.  The chances for a 2009 slump is a real possibility.  Stanton has propelled himself onto the radar screens of just about every minor league pitcher.  The Florida State League is a pitcher’s haven and the expectations heaped upon Stanton after his ‘08 campaign will be difficult to uphold.  Long term, his place alongside Cameron Maybin and opposite John Raynor will give the Marlins an outfield as talented as any in major league baseball within the next few seasons.

 

10.) Michael Taylor—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAK	SAL	.361	67	249	40	90	12	3	10	50	138	31	43	10	3	.441	.554	.995
CLE	FSL	.329	65	243	36	80	27	1	9	38	136	19	46	5	6	.380	.560	.939
Minors		.346	132	492	76	170	39	4	19	88	274	50	89	15	9	.412	.557	.968

 

 

Strengths: Taylor is a complete hitter with a muscular 6-6 250 lb. frame and left handed swing that can launch balls into the stratosphere.  He is an excellent athlete that runs well, steals bases and plays a very good right field.  His plate discipline is quite advanced and he brings an intelligent approach to all aspects of his game.

Weaknesses: Given his size, it is conceivable that he could lose some of his basestealing abilities as he ages and could become more of a power hitter.  His BB/K ratio regressed after his promotion to High-A, though it didn’t have a noticable effect on his batting average.  He is currently 23 years old and needs to avoid having any setbacks at AA or AAA in order to maintain his status as an elite prospect. 

2009 Outlook: AA will be the next step for Taylor.  This should provide a firm indicator to the true scope of his offensive skills.  If he can continue his torrid hitting, Taylor could vault himself into the top five slots on this list.  Expect him to be in the major leagues at some time in 2010…perhaps in April.

 

Stay tuned for the second half of this list and feel free to comment of the Top 10.  There are plenty of sound investments in this group of future superstars and the market for their cards is starting to sizzle.  If you are looking to make a purchase, please feel free to do so through one of my eBay affiliate links!