8/2 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 3, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Wow, lots has happened since the last minor league reports.  Several prospects have gotten fresh starts with new franchises and some are capitalizing on those opportunities.

Jeff Clement has,  as predicted, donned a first baseman’s glove and has hit like a top tier corner infielder since joining the Indianapolis Indians, hitting .545 with three HR and five runs scored in three games.  Clement is going to get a shot with the Bucs in the very near future and I think that the move to the NL and to 1B is going to be one that benefits him greatly.  The market for Clement’s cards is starting to pick up steam as many prospect prognosticators feel the same way that I do about his yellow and black rebirth.  Despite the optimistic start, beware!  Jeff Clement is an incredibly streaky hitter who could rip out 5 HR one week and manage just 5 hits the next.  Expect to pay $8-12 for each of his ‘06 autos right now and $2.50-3.50 for each of his ‘05 Bowman Chrome or Bowman Sterling first year cards right now.

Speaking of streaky hitters…..Travis Snider is molten hot right now.  The beefy Blue Jays OF blasted his 9th HR with the Las Vegas 51’st, driving in three runs and scoring three runs.  Snider is hitting .436 over his last 10 games with 4 HR 16 RBI and 12 runs scored.  In addition, he’s walked 8 times vs. 9 K’s during that time.  Strikeouts are always going to come in bunches for Snider, but his ability to work counts and get on base is key to his success in his next audition with the Jays.  Things are poised to open up for Snider soon as OF Jose Bautista’s production has been anemic at best.  At the same time, there is no real reason to rush the 21 year old slugger back to Toronto either.  This season was supposed to be Snider’s coming out party, but plate discipline woes and a shoulder injury mitigated his production.  The market for his first year autos in 2007 Bowman Sterling has been cut by more than half since this spring from $35-40 each to $15-18 today.  The bat speed is real, the power is prestigious, and the market for his cards are at all time lows.  Buy accordingly. 

Today’s top prospect is another Blue Jays farmhand.  Brian Dopirak is a long time minor league slugger who, at the age of 25, is experiencing a rebirth of his own as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays organization.  Drafted as an 18 year old in 2002, Dopirak pounded his way on prospectors’ radars in 2004 when he blasted 39 HR and 120 RBI for High-A Lancaster.  Since then, he has continued to hit HR’s at each minor league stop but has never been able to hit beyond AAA.  Yesterday’s 4-5 day that saw him hit HR’s #23 and 24 may change all of that.  At 6-4 and 220 lb., Dopirak is all hitter and is a below average defender at 1B.  Dopirak hits LH and RH pitching equally well but shows more power against southpaws.  He’s bound to get a look in September but it is unclear how much playing time he’ll get.  The market for Dopirak’s cards is low and slow right now, but a power surge in a big league uniform can create a brief window of collector interest for his cards.

AAA Player of the Day—BRIAN DOPIRAK

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Brandon Allen—2-5 2B HR(17) RBI
• John Hester—3-5 2 2B 2 RBI R
• Trent Oeltjen—2-4 HR(10) 2 RBI 2R BB SB(18)
• Matt Downs—2-4 HR(11) RBI 2B 2R (Game 1)…..2-4 2B 3B R
• Matt Tuiasosopo—2-4 HR(2) 3 RBI (Game 1)…..3-3 RBI (Game 2)
• Brad Nelson—2-3 HR(11) RBI 2R 2B
• Tyler Greene—3-3 3R BB 2 SB(21)
• Allen Craig—2-3 R RBI BB
• Wes Hodges—1-4 HR(4) RBI
• Austin Jackson—2-4 2 RBI R 2 SB(19)
• Jeff Clement—1-2 HR(17) RBI 2 BB 2R
• Neil Walker—3-4 2 2B 2 RBI
• Greg Golson—1-4 HR(2) RBI
• Brett Wallace—1-3 HR(12) 2 RBI
• Cole Armstrong—2-4 HR(9) 3 RBI 2R
• Scott Sizemore—2-4 2R
• Gaby Sanchez—1-2 HR(10) RBI 2 BB
• Travis Snider—1-3 HR(9) 3 RBI 3R 2 BB
• Brian Dopirak—4-5 2 HR(24) 3 RBI 4R

Pitching:

• Junichi Tazawa—5.1 IP 2H 2 ER BB 3K L (9-7)
• Clay Mortensen—5.1 IP 5H ER 3 BB 5K

Cliff Lee To The Phillies Trade & The eBay Market

Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

This was an article submitted some time ago to the Cardboard Connection, but it didn’t make its way to publication.  As a result, I will post it up on PPR for your viewing pleasure.  Have some opinions on the trade deadline deals and their effects on the sports card market?  Let your opinions be known in the comments section!

As the banter between the Blue Jays and Phillies for coveted RHP Roy Halladay reached an impass, the Phillies utilized their backup plan and shipped highly regarded prospects Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp to the Cleveland Indians for 2008 Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.  Here’s a closer look at the primary pieces involved.

Cliff Lee:  The southpaw should provide the stability in the #2 rotation spot that struggling young ace Cole Hamels needs.  Lee has been one of the few bright spots for the A.L.’s worst team this year going 7-9 with a 3.14 ERA this season.  A move to the defending world champions should help breathe some life into the market for Lee’s various first year cards from 2002 as well as his autographed cards from subsequent seasons and sets.  Philadelphia is a solid collector’s market and Lee’s level of success should dictate the amount of heat that his cards generate on eBay and other sites.

Jason Donald: After a largely successful 2008 season which saw him lead Team USA to a bronze medal in Beijing and hit over .400 in the Arizona Fall League, it seemed that Donald was going to be the logical replacement for either Chase Utley or Pedro Feliz as each recovered from off season surgery.  Instead, it was Donald who struggled with injuries and missed most of June and July recovering from surgery on his torn meniscus.  In 51 games this season, the former Arizona Wildcat is hitting just .235 with one HR and 16 RBI at AAA Lehigh Valley.  Donald is a versatile infielder, able to play SS, 2B and 3B adaquately, though he best profiles at second or third defensively.  His bat should come around once his knee gets to full strength and he gets to full speed.  Donald has chart topping makeup and work ethic skills that makes him a natural leader on and off the field.  Cleveland is a rebuilding team with several holes to fill, but it seems that the one most suitable for next season will be in place of impending free agent Jamey Carroll as the team’s utility man.  Donald has enough offensive upside that he could be a 10-15 HR per season guy with good plate discipline and the ability to hit for a decent average.  From a market perspective, Donald’s card values, most notably his 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft and 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto, apexed during  last year’s AFL campaign and prior to spring training when there was much conjecture that he would be joining the Phillies as a starter.  Things have not worked out that way and the market for his stuff has waned but not disappeared.  His ‘06 Bowman Chrome Draft cards can be had from time to time in lots for 75 cents to $1.25 each and his ‘08 Sterling autos sell for $6-8 apiece.  If all goes well healthwise, it seems to be a sure bet that Donald will earn some playing time with the Indians at some point this summer.  Keep an eye on his bat to see if he can replicate some of his ‘08 magic.  If so, the market for his cards could see a nice short term boost.

Lou Marson: The acquisition of Marson is a prime indicator of a future departure of All-Star catcher Victor Martinez.  Marson has had a solid, but unspectacular season playing primarily at Lehigh Valley hitting .294 with one HR and 24 RBI in 63 games.  Marson is a solid defensive catcher with a strong arm and excellent leadership skills behind the plate.  Offensively, he has demonstrated the ability to hit for a high batting average with spectacular plate discipline, but his power numbers are below average.  Once V-Mart finds a new home, Kelly Shoppach should take over behind the plate with Marson backing him up.  Unfortunately for Marson, #1 Indians prospect Carlos Santana is not far behind and his 19 HR at AA is a prime indicator that his tenure with the club will begin very soon.  Similar to Donald’s cards, Marson’s 2004 first year cards, particularly in the Bowman Chrome Draft and SP Prospects sets, experienced their greatest values toward the end of 2008 when it was speculated by many that he would be the Phillies’ opening day catcher for 2009.  Currently his SP Prospects auto (#/550) sells for $15-18 and his Bowman Chrome Draft cards sell for less than a buck each.  He should be called up from AAA Columbus soon, perhaps immediately after the club trades Victor Martinez.

Carlos Carrasco: Baseball America tabbed the Venezuelan right-hander as the Phillies’ #1 prospect in 2008 but he has pitched like anything but in 2009.  After starting the season at 0-6, Carrasco has had much more fortune lately winning six out of his last nine decisions.  Carrasco, 21, has a tall and strong frame that oozes projectibility.  With a fastball that reaches 94 with good late life and a fading changeup he has the potential to be a solid #2 or 3 pitcher at the major league level.  Moving forward, Carrasco needs to be more consistent.  He has proven to be durable, averaging six innings per start this season, but he’s also had problems putting away hitters with regularity.  His move to the Indians will surely secure a rotation spot for him in the near future.  Carrasco has first year cards in the 2005 Bowman Chrome set that sell for $2-3 each and autographs in the 2008 Bowman Sterling set that can be had at $7-8 each.  While his ceiling remains high, Carrasco will need to prove that he’s ready to be a consistent MLB hurler in order for his cards to surpass their current prices.

Jason Knapp: The 19 year old hurler is perhaps the top prospect in this trade.  Knapp is big and burly (6-5 235 lb.) with a fastball that approaches 100 MPH. and a power slider that should be a devastating strikeout pitch in time.  Knapp’s 2-7 record and 4.01 ERA belies the  true dominance of his stuff as he’s compiled a 39 BB/111 K ratio over his first 85 innings this season and is limiting hitters to a .208 batting average.  Shoulder fatigue shut has shut Jason down for the past couple of weeks, but the Phillies organization have maintained that the move was a precautionary procedure and not injury related.  The challenge for Knapp moving forward will be his ability to sharpen the command of his two plus plus pitches.  He’s shown an aptitude for throwing a changeup and its development could determine whether Knapp is going to develop as a frontline starter or dominant closer.  Knapp has first year autos in several 2008 sets including Donruss Elite, Playoff Contenders, and Bowman Sterling.  They range from $8-12 each and his 2009 Bowman autos fetch $6-8 each. 

This deal was a true blockbuster that saw both the Phillies and Indians reap benefits.  For the Phils, they recevied yet another left handed pitcher for their rotation without having to part with Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor.  The acquisition of Lee levels the playing field between them and the Dodgers and should make for a thrilling NLCS showdown this year and sets them up for another pennant run in 2010.  Ben Francisco gives them an upgrade in their bench and probably spells the end of the line for John Mayberry Jr.  The Indians receive organizational depth that is, with the exception of Knapp, MLB ready.  For a rebuilding team looking to slash payroll, this was a solid, but not spectacular, haul.

Pirates/M’s and Cliff Lee Trade Analyses

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

The Cardboard Connection has posted my article I wrote in the wake of the Matt Holliday deal.  While the trade is now old news, here’s the link to the article for your viewing pleasure.

I also stayed up late last night tapping out similar articles for the Pirates/M’s trade and the Cliff Lee to Philly deal.  I think the Pirates added some significant depth to their system as did the Indians.  The M’s filled a couple of holes in their roster, but not spectacularly so.  The Phillies may have purchased a couple more trips to the World Series while keeping their trifecta of elite prospects (Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, and Michael Taylor). 

I will link to the Pirates/M’s trade article and Cliff Lee to Philly articles once they are posted on the Cardboard Connection.  If you haven’t checked out that site yet, do so today.  It is rapidly becoming one of the best sports card info sites on the web.

Market Implications of Wednesday and Thursday’s MLB deals

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Pardon my delay in getting this out.  I have been dealing with a wicked ear infection over the past three days that has affected my use of anything brain-related.  I have been following the trade deadline transactions with great intrigue and will continue to bring you analysis either on this site or the Cardboard Connection over the next couple of days.

Multi-player swaps between the Phillies/Indians and Mariners/Pirates gobbled up the headlines over the past 24 hours, but there were several smaller deals that have popped up during that time that should has some short and long term implications on the eBay baseball card market.  Let’s knock them down one by one…

WEDNESDAY:

San Francisco aquires Pittsburgh Pirates 2B Freddy Sanchez for AA RHP Tim Alderson

On the surface, it seems that the Giants overpaid for the former All-Star second baseman.  Alderson was ranked by Baseball America as San Francisco’s #4 overall prospect for 2009.  After a solid start at High-A San Jose, the Giants promoted Alderson to AA Connecticut where he has compiled a 6-1 record with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts.  However, his last handful of starts have not been without struggle as he has allowed 17 earned runs on 36 hits in just 28 innings.  Add that to the fact that the Giants’ rotation seems to be stacked for the long term with Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez.  That stockpile of talent, along with the emergence of Henry Sosa made Alderson expendible, but several, including this sportsfan, feel that the Giants could have gotten more in return for him.  From a market perspective, Alderson’s move to Pittsburgh converts him from being a future mid-rotation starter to becoming the Pirates’ best pitching prospect.  This should accelerate his path to the major leagues and, in turn, offer a potential bump in the values of his various 1st year cards.  Currently, Alderson has autos in the 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft, Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite Extra (#/719) sets that currently sell for $17-22 each right now.  There is a lot to like about Alderson as a prospect.  At 6-6 220 lb., he’s got projectible stuff and command that not many 20 year olds can match.  However, he’s had his difficulties dominating hitters during his first couple of seasons in the same way that his former counterpart Madison Bumgarner has.  In 99 innings this season, Alderson has a 17 BB/66 K ratio.  In addition, hitters from both the California League and Eastern League have had a significant amount of success against him combining to hit .272.  Alderson, like Bumgarner, is one of the youngest pitchers in the AA ranks right now and there’s reason to believe that some of his recent struggles could be attributed to a lack of experience over a decrease in stuff.  He’ll likely stay in the minor leagues this season before challenging for a rotation spot next spring.

As for Sanchez, his consistent offensive production in Pittsburgh has gone largely unnoticed with collectors as the Pirates have been perennial cellar dwellers for much of his career.  Now a member of the Giants and in the thick of a pennant chase, Sanchez’s 2002 autos are beginning to summon an increased amount of market appeal.  Sanchez is not the focal piece of the Giants’ lineup, but his bat will fit nicely in the #2 spot of the order and he should contribute immediately.  As the Giants go, so will the demand for Sanchez’s cards.  Unless they make the World Series, though, I think the most pronounced bounce in value will come in the the first few days following this trade. 

Ryan Garko traded to the San Francisco Giants for high class A LHP Scott Barnes

Again, the Giants surrendered a high potential power arm for a solid but not spectacular infield bat.  Garko has put up decent numbers this year, hitting .280 with 11 HR and 39 RBI this season for the Indians.  Like Sanchez, the fetch for Garko’s 2005 first year cards and various autos will depend largely upon his and the Giants fortunes down the stretch. 

Scott Barnes is a 6-4 195 lb. lefty that has tamed the rampant bats of the California League this season to the tune of a 12-3 record and 2.85 ERA.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that Barnes is a flyball pitcher in a league that usually eats them alive.  The key to Barnes’ succes?  A 91-94 MPH fastball with wicked movement that has limited hitters to a .227 batting average.  He also features a curveball with good bite and improving command.  To date, the former St. John’s standout doesn’t have a first year card, but should in the near future.

Orioles trade LHP George Sherrill to the Dodgers for 3B Josh Bell and RHP Steven Johnson

This deal is all about the prospects.  Sherrill is going to be a set-up man for the Dodgers and has no market value.  From a baseball standpoint, the Dodgers have to shore up their bullpen depth with a quality veteran southpaw.  As for the youngsters, Josh Bell has long been a favorite sleeper prospect of mine.  He struggled through injuries last season and was shut down early to rehab his knee.  He’s been nothing but healthy and productive this year, though, hitting .296 with 11 HR 52 RBI 30 doubles and 47 runs scored in 94 games.   What’s more is that his BB/K ratio continues to get better and better.  This season, Bell has walked 50 times while striking out 70.  At 6-3 235 lb., and just 22 years old, there is a vast amount of power potential in the youngster’s game, as he possesses wicked bat speed from both sides of the plate, but there are also some concerns about his ability to stay at 3B for the long term.  Bell has committed 17 errors this season and has a decent .929 fielding percentage.  The organization has little definitive depth at the hot corner but features promising sluggers Brandon Snyder and Brandon Waring at 1B.  Bell’s first year cards in the 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft set sell for less than $1 each and his first autographed cards in the 2008 Bowman Chrome set can still be had for $5-7.50 each.  Bell’s probably a year away from being ready for major league competition, but with Melvin Mora’s contract option likely not being picked up, there is a chance that Bell competes for the third base job in spring training 2010.  I know that I’ve said this before, but the Orioles are a season or two away from being a really good team.

Steven Johnson has had a nice bounce back at High-A Inland Empire this season going 8-4 with a 3.82 ERA and a 42 BB/102 K ratio in 97 innings.  He continued to look sharp in two AA outings with Chatanooga going 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 15 K’s in just 10 innings of work.  Johnson can get his fastball up to 92 MPH and also works with a fringy changeup and solid average curveball.  He’s an extreme flyball pitcher who probably would benefit more by being in a more spacious ballpark than Camden Yards.  At 21 years old, there’s some upside for Johnson as a back of the rotation starter, but the Orioles are an organization loaded with pitching talent which should spell “long reliever” as Johnson’s future role in an O’s uniform.  The eBay market for Steven Johnson’s only cards, 2005 Bowman Draft and Chrome, is limited to the oft-overvalued eBay store items.  There aren’t any deals to be had on his chromes which are frequently on sale for $1.00-1.50 each.  Cheaper alternatives can be found on Beckett’s Marketplace or Sportsbuy.com where prices fall into the more appropriate 25-50 cent range.