$100 Well Spent #6

Posted by Jeremy on January 9, 2009 under $100 Well Spent | Be the First to Comment

It has been about a month since Razor debuted with their much heralded baseball product so I thought it would be a perfect time spend my hypothetical C-note on a batch of players from their fine product. As always, I will be using a median eBay value that accounts for the nefarious shipping and handling costs that all of us love to pay. Here we go…

1.) Pedro Alvarez Exclusive Signature—$22.00

• Arguably the best hitter in the draft, Alvarez’s non-serial #’ed auto is available for about 10 bucks less than his one #’ed out of 499.  I think it is safe to say that Alvarez is a fast track player and the best offensive talent that the Pittsburgh Pirates have drafted since they selected a skinny OF out of Arizona State back in 1986. 

2.) Justin Smoak Exclusive Auto—$16.00

• Comparisons to all-star switch hitting power sources like Mark Teixeira and Lance Berkman are prime indicators that we can expect big things out Smoak.  The Rangers have made enormous strides in pulling their organization out of the post A-Rod mire.  With top caliber pitching talent just a season or two away, the offense is already in place for the Rangers to battle for A.L. West supremacy.  By that time, this young 1B will be firmly entrenched in the middle part of this lethal lineup.

3.) Brett Wallace Exclusive Auto—$14.00

• Be it an aluminium bat or wooden one, Wallace can flat out rake with it.  After a success-filled career at Arizona State, Wallace continued to rip pitchers in both the Midwest and Texas Leagues batting a combined .337 with 8 HR and 36 RBI in just 202 AB.  After that, he went back to the desert to hit .309 and belt another 6 HR in the Arizona Fall League.  The walking M.A.S.H. unit Troy Glaus is the only thing holding Wallace back from manning the corner of the diamond opposite MVP Albert Pujols.  Given his level of success, expect Wallace to make it happen at some time in 2009.

4.) Eric Hosmer Exclusive Signature—$12.00

• The Royals reclaimation project is in full swing and this big lefty 1B is a central figure in this organization’s turnaround.  With the power bats of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Mike Moustakas around him, Hosmer and the Royals are destined to restore the pride of the Royals of the 1980’s.  Hosmer is polished for being a prep hitter, but with Mike Jacobs and Kila Ka’aihue in the fold, there is no pressure to rush him to K.C.  His powerful bat and great defensive abilities, however, may make it hard to keep him back for long.

5.) David Cooper Signature Series #/1199—$5.00

• Would you rather have a Subway $5.00 foot long or the serial #’ed autograph from this fine 1st round Toronto Blue Jays hitter.  Cooper hit the ball well at three separate stops to the tune of a .333 BA with 5 HR 51 RBI and 29 doubles in 69 games.  Cooper has advanced plate discipline and surprisng pop despite his smallish size.  In a draft dominated by slugging corner infielders, Cooper’s bat is an undervalued commodity.  Expect it to reach the bigs in 2010.

6.) Aaron Crow Exclusive Auto—$8.00

• The Washington Nationals were unable to reach a contract agreement with their top pick Aaron Crow which means that he will re-enter the draft this June and, aside from San Diego State’s Stephen Strasburg, he may be the best pitcher of the batch.  Last season at Missouri, Crow was a perfect 13-0, including four shut outs, with a 2.56 ERA and 137 K’s in just 107 IP.  The Nats are a team that is slowly undergoing the process of improvement and it will take a while longer than that to become relevant to the collecting masses.  Looking at the top 10 picks of the ‘09 draft, I see some much more collector friendly organizations like the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves that may choose to employ Mr. Crow’s services next season.

7.) Ryan Westmoreland Significant Signature #/1199—$8.00

• Scouts who watched this young prep prospect liken him immediately to fellow Rhode Islander and new Boston Red Sox OF Rocco Baldelli.  Westmoreland has been ranked by some experts as high as #5 in Boston’s deeply talented farm system.  Westmoreland’s speed has been charted just below that of current Fenway CF Jacoby Ellsbury and his tall projectible frame indicates that he should be able to add some good HR pop as he matures.  In watching Ryan’s quick lefty swing, it is easy to see why the Red Sox shelled out $1.6 million to lure him away from Vanderbilt.  The son of a HS baseball coach, Westmoreland has supreme plate discipline and a good game plan at the plate.  One caveat, he did have off-season shoulder surgery, but should be ready to make his professional debut in June. 

8.) Brett Wallace/David Cooper Dual Auto #/99

• For some reason the Razor dual autos have been not warmly received by the collecting masses.   Perhaps this is due to the inundation of Team USA dual autos available on the market or maybe it is the historical notion that dual autos are destined to turn promising prospects to complete duds (like many of the 2004 SP Prospects sets did).  Either way, I think this card features two of the most promising college bats from this year’s draft that should be Major League ready by 2010.  Both these guys have supreme plate disicpline, good pop, and an opportunity to earn a roster spot very soon.

Well, for just above the price of a real Razor Baseball box, I think I have compiled a pretty good score of hits.  There are so many good prospects to be had in this set and, while I was critical of Razor in the early going, I must say that they have put forth a good effort in their first go at it. 

This next season will give a greater indication on just what kind of impact Razor

$100 Well Spent #4

Posted by Jeremy on September 13, 2008 under $100 Well Spent, Market Watch | Read the First Comment

As promised, this next $100 segment focuses on the N.L. teams that are in the playoff hunt as of September 12th.  One note, just hours after my post on the A.L. teams, Paul Konerko sprained his knee and Ervin Santana had one of his worst outings of his season.  So much for my Midas Touch.

I was parusing the box scores and standings in the N.L. and have come to the realization that this will be much more difficult than the A.L. post.  There are 8 teams (as opposed to 5 A.L. teams) with a realistic shot at the playoffs.  For the sake of convenience, I have omitted the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals from the equation as they seem to be the most unlikely temas of the bunch to stay in the pennant race.  My apologies to those of you who disagree.  Now, I bring you my $100 well spent for N.L. playoff contenders.

New York Mets—82-63 1st Place N.L. East

2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Mike Pelfrey (x5)—$7.50

• Pelfrey has been pitching like the frontline starter Mets GM Omar Minaya projected him to be when he selected him with the Mets’ 1st round selection in 2005.  Pelfrey has pitched at least 7 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts including back to back complete games.  With injuries to John Maine and the struggles of Pedro Martinez, Pelfrey has stepped up big time and may find himself as the number two option behind ace southpaw Johan Santana in the playoffs.  At $1.50 each, Pelfrey’s Bowman Chrome Draft cards are well under their $8.00 Beckett values and a great economical value buy right now. 

Carlos Beltran 1995 Topps Traded (x2)—$7.00

• Remember when this card was selling in the $15-20 range?  Beltran is having another solid season in which he has collected 100 RBI and scored more than 100 runs in the middle of the Mets lineup.  He is getting hot at just the right time and is one of the catalysts in the Mets lineup.  Gotta think this card will get some more attention if the Mets can continue their run and fend off the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies—80-67 2nd Place NL East, 2nd Place WC

Jason Werth 1997 Bowman Chrome (x6)—$12.00

• Werth is enjoying his best season as a pro with the Phillies hitting .276  with 22 HR 59 RBI and 17 SB in his first full season.  Werth has a powerful and athletic 6-5 225 lb. frame that, due to numerous injuries, has taken some time to blossom to its potential.  Werth can adeptly play any OF position and his #2 spot in the lineup between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley leads to many scoring opportunities.  These cards are solid values at their prices for an underrated player in a lineup of superstars.

Brett Myers Topps Finest—$9.00

• This card is a limited edition of Myers’ RC.  Brett Myers has been shuttled from rotation to pen to rotation again.  He has been villified by some and diefied by others.  He is a talented but caustic enigma who is currently at the apex of his game and carrying the Phillie’s rotation through September.  Myers has won 5 of his last 6 starts pitching at least 78 innings in each while allowing only 6 ER and striking out 49 in 46 innings.  Myers is a fiery competitor who will not back down from the challenge that the post season brings.  Hopefully, he will not melt down either.

Chicago Cubs—88-58 1st Place NL Central (Best Record in NL)

Rich Harden 2002 Topps (x3)—$7.50

• Harden has rivaled C.C. Sabathia as the best mid-season acquisition this season.   Since his trade to the Cubbies, Harden has gone 5-1 with a 1. 65 ERA and has struck out 78 in just 60 innings and has held National League hitters to a stingy .169 BA.   Harden, with apologies to Carlos Zambrano, is the true ace of the Cubs and his continued dominance will be integral to the postseason success of the Cubs.  If the Cubs go to the World Series, which is very probable, Harden’s cards could enjoy the market bump that Josh Beckett enjoyed last year.

Aramis Ramirez 1997 Bowman Chrome—$6.00

• What an underrated rookie card this is!  Ramirez season after season is the glue that holds the middle of the Cubs’ lineup together.  This season is no exception.  Ramirez is hitting .280 with 24 HR 103 RBI and 87 runs scored.  Additionally, Ramirez has walked a career high 69 times and has a career best .373 OBP.  Ramirez has always been an underrated hitter, but since August 1st, he is batting .300 with 6 HR and 30 RBI.  A sterling postseason campaign can make Ramirez’s ‘97 Bowman Chrome card reach the plateaus of $15-20 that other former ‘97 Bowman Chrome RC’s of Adrian Beltre, Lance Berkman, and Eric Chavez have at one time enjoyed.

Milwaukee Brewers—(83-64) 2nd Place NL Central, 1st Place NL WC

J.J. Hardy 2003 Topps Blue Chips Auto—$10.00

• On a team glistening with young superstar hitters like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Corey Hart, Hardy’s contributions often go somewhat overlooked.  However, his .283 BA with 24 HR and 70 RBI plus his solid play at SS has become a stalwhart fixture for an organization that has rapidly evolved into one of baseball’s best.  This is Hardy’s sole 1st year auto and it is certainly undervalued and, perhaps like Hardy himself, underappreciated.

C.C. Sabathia 1999 Topps Finest—$5.00

• Sabathia has been nothing short of dominant since his move to the Brewers.  A perfect 9-0 record with a 1.59 ERA, Sabathia is the ace that the Brewers have been seeking over the last two years.  Sabathia has numerous 1999 RC’s, but the Finest is a high quality and visually appealing card that seems to be in shorter supply than the others.  The Brewers have a daunting task of fending off other hot teams like Houston and St. Louis for the Wild Card spot, but their potent lineup and big horse at the top of the rotation should provide them enough firepower to earn their first postseason berth in 26 years.

Houston Astros—80-67 3rd Place NL Central, 3rd Place WC

Hunter Pence 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects (x2)—$7.00

• We were all introduced to Pence last season when he and fellow NL Central phenom Ryan Braun took the collecting world by storm with their sterling debuts.  This season, the rage for Pence’s cards have cooled somewhat as he has had a decent but understated sophomore season hitting .273 with 22 HR and 75 RBI.  Pence is an integral part to the surging Astros’ lineup as fellow OF Carlos Lee is on the shelf through thre rest of the regular season with a fractured finger.  Pence has done his part in September hitting .390 with 2 HR 6 RBI and 5 doubles.  While his 2004 cards are all too expensive for this list, his ‘06 Bowman Chrome Prospect cards could well be nice values if the Astros can continue their torrid pace and track down the Brewers.

Los Angeles Dodgers—75-71 1st Place NL West

Chad Billingsley 2003 Bowman Heritage Auto—$13.00

• Billingsley has taken huge strides forward to become the ace that the Dodgers projected him to be when they selected him in the first round of  the ‘03 draft.  Billingsley has won 6 of his last 7 decisions and has lowered his overall ERA to 3.02 after begining the season with an 0-4 record.  The playoffs are a time where the frontline players step forward and turn themselves into household names.  Surging since the Manny Ramirez trade, the Dodgers have several key youngsters that can make the transistion from sleepers to superstars.  Billingsley is at the top of that list.

Andre Ethier 2003 Prospect Premieres (x5)—$7.50

• This guy has been sizzling in September, hitting a robust .595 with 2 HR 12 RBI and 14 runs scored.  Additionally, he has walked 9 times while only punching out 5 times.  Ethier is the perfect compliment to Man-Ram and he has been very comfortble hitting in the 2 spot ahead of him.  The Prospect Premieres card is an XRC set which also features an autograph from Ethier.  His ‘03 and ‘05 autos are sold in the $20-30 range, but his ‘06 autos can be had for under $10.  As a first year card, the ‘03 Prospect Premieres has solid value for its price and could be a hot commodity if Ethier can transform inoto a postseason superstar.

Matt Kemp 2005 Topps Chrome Update (x5)—$8.00

• This guy is soooo close to being a big time superstar.  He has had a very nice 2008 campaign hitting .286 with 16 HR 71 RBI and 33 SB.  This is his first full season and not even the sky can limit his potential as an all-around mega talent.  He must learn to cut down his K’s and keep focused.  Kemp has many offereings in 2005 to choose from, including a Bowman Chrome auto that would also be a good investment (though too expensive for the $100 Well Spent article).  I chose his chromes as I felt $1.50 was a steal for a player of his talent.  The Dodgers have all the ingredients in place for a long and productive postseason run.

Phew!  There it is $100 worth of National League Playoff Contenders!  As always your thoughts and contributions are solicited and appreciated by me.  Hopefully, I won’t jinx this batch!  Stay tuned as I will be posting later about David Price’s promotion to the big club in Tampa Bay and we’ll also examine Razor’s newest signees. 

For now, though, it is time to go enjoy the sunshine!

$100 Well Spent #3

Posted by Jeremy on September 9, 2008 under $100 Well Spent | 2 Comments to Read

Last time I focused on upcoming potential September callups, this time I will dedicate my hypothetical C-note to impact RC’s during the pennant stretch.  Every year, certain RC’s pop up out of the wood work to become brief denizens on collector hot lists.  I recall 1986 when an ordinary Mets 3B, Ray Knight, whose greatest previous conquest was being the spouse of LPGA legend Nancy Lopez, became the toast of the Big Apple and a brief hobby sensation with an MVP performance against the Buckner-cursed Boston Red Sox. 

As of today, 11 teams (5 A.L. & 6 N.L.) are in the thick of the playoff race.  I began writing this article with the intent of giving a player to watch from each contending team.  However, that task has proven to be daunting and waters down the quality of depth that each of these teams posesses.  So, I have decided that this post will be focused on the 5 A.L. teams and the next post will highlight the 6 N.L. teams.  Each post will be allocated $100 (not $50 and $50). 

Ok, this will be hard, but I will am up for the task.  As always, your thoughts and prospective lists are welcome.  I will be using average Ebay prices from the past two weeks as my point of reference.  Here we go…

Tampa Bay Rays—87-57 1st place A.L. East

Rocco Baldelli 2000 Bowman Chrome DP (x5)—$7.50

• The revival of Rocco has been the one of the great chapters within the success story that is the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.  Baldelli, who was once compared to Joltin’ Joe Dimaggio, had his career seemingly cut short when he fell prey to a chronic fatigue disorder which robbed his body of the necessary energy to participate in strenuous physical activity.  Somehow, Baldelli has found a way to make it back to the Rays’ lineup as a DH and RF.  Baldelli cannot yet handle a full time workload, but his story is as compelling as that of the Rays this season and that is sure to get more national publicity the further the Rays progress in the playoffs.

Carlos Pena 1999 Bowman Chrome (x5)—$7.50

• How far the mighty have fallen.  Last season’s breakout player has not delivered the goods this season hitting just .245 with 27 HR and 85 RBI.  While this is a far cry from last year’s 46 HR 121 RBI performance, it bears worth noticing that Pena was suffering from nagging injuries that kept him out of most of June.  Since his return, Pena has averaged a HR every 10 AB’s and is walking quite a bit more.  He has carried this lineup since Evan Longoria’s hand injury and will play a crucial role within this lineup down the home stretch.  Collectors have become disenchanted with his cards, don’t make the same mistake.  the ‘99 Bowman Chrome series 2 set features the nicest of his low end RC’s and are readily available in quantities.

Boston Red Sox—85-58 2nd Place A.L East, 1st Place W.C.

 Jon Lester 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft (x10)—$12.50

• It is really hard to find an under-hyped Red Sox prospect or player.  Lester is not underhyped, and this card is not Lester’s first (2002 Prospect Premieres) nor is it his best.  However, it is one that can be bought for cheap and is available in bulk quantities.  Lester has #1 starter stuff and knows how to win.  His no-hitter this season and return from cancer are compelling stories that will get more play, the more the Sox play.  Lester has an opportunity to move into the #2 spot in the rotation between Beckett and Dice-K if the Sox decide to employ a righty, lefty, righty look to their rotation.  That is a distinct possibility that will allow Lester to pitch more post-season innings, increasing the chances for him to do something special in the national spotlight.

Jed Lowrie 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft (x2)—$7.50

• Lowrie has all but taken the starting SS job away from Julio Lugo and has proven resilient in his first 200 AB’s.  While Lowrie does not have much power, he is particularly adept at driving in runs, especially in crucial situations.  Ammortized over a 600 AB season, Lowrie would have a Tommy Herr-like 6 HR and 120 RBI.  Clutch hitting during the ‘08 playoffs could vault Lowrie into the hearts of Red Sox Nation alongside other young stars like Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Chicago White Sox— 80-62 1st Place A.L. Central

 Gavin Floyd 2002 Bowman Chrome Auto—$12.00

• The White Sox have been a team that has been bouyed primarily on power hitting offense to keep them atop the heap in the A.L. Central.  Now with MLB HR leader Carlos Quentin on the shelf for the remainder of the year, it is the pitching that must step forward to keep them there.  Gavin Floyd has been a long term package of unfulfilled promise since his days as a number one draft pick with the Philadelphia Phillies.  This year, Floyd has gone a long way to making himself into a number one pitcher for a playoff contender.  Floyd has a 15-6 record, including wins in his last 5 decisions.  The White Sox still have enough offense to match up against any pitching rotation, but their own rotation will be the key in determining if and how far the South Side Boys will go in October.

Paul Konerko 1994 Topps Traded (X10)—$12.50

• Konerko has had a disasterous ‘08 (he killed my fantasy team).  However, since the acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. and a temporary decrease in AB’s, Paulie has turned things around big time.  He’s batting .367 since the beginning of August with 7 HR (including one in each of the last three games) 15 RBI and 20 BB vs. just 14 K’s.  With Quentin on the shelf, Konerko’s power needs to be present in the middle of the lineup.  So far, he seems up to the task.

Minnesota Twins—78-65 2nd place A.L. Central, 2nd place W.C.

Francisco Liriano 2002 Bowman (X10)—$12.50

• Perhaps the antithesis to the Chicago White Sox, the Minnesota Twins’ formula for success has been its starting pitching.  Headlining that group is the dominant left arm of ace Francisco Liriano.  Liriano has been perfect since his return from minor league exile winning his last 5 decisions and lowering his ERA an even 8 runs per 9 IP during that stretch.  Liriano is unquestionably the ace of this rotation and has the Twins surging since his return.  The Twins took their sweet time in getting Liriano back into their rotation, let’s hope for their sake that it wasn’t too long.

Kevin Slowey 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft (X10)—$12.50

• The yin to Liriano’s yang, Slowey offers control and deception from the right hand side of the mound.  Slowey struggled in the early going this year, but has really turned it on going 4-1 in the month of August with 37 K’s and only 2 walks in 37 IP.  Slowey doesn’t have the flash or velocity that most frontline pitchers possess, but he has evolved into a winner who gives quality starts each and every time out.  He will surely be the number two pitcher in the Twins rotation if they play in October.

L.A. Angels—87-56 1st Place A.L. West (Best A.L. record)

 Ervin Santana 2004 Bowman’s Best Auto—$12.00

• 2008 marks the coming out party for Santana and the end of years of frustration for the L.A. Angels organization.  Santana has shown glimpses of dominance in the past, but this season he has put it all together to be the ace of the Angels’ staff going 15-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 191 K’s vs. only 44 BB.  Santana’s opponents are only hitting .233 off of him, but he has allowed 19 dingers, which may haunt him come playoff time.  The Angels are going far this year, perhaps all the way to the World Series parade.  Don’t be surprised to see Ervin Santana supplant John Lackey as the Angels most used pitcher come playoff time. 

Brandon Wood 2003 UD Prospect Premieres (x2)—$4.50

• Ugh, I wish I had more money to spend! Brandon Wood is not ready yet, but he is not far from ready to be superstar in this league.  Plate discipline has been his bane, but he is showing signs of figuring things out.  I think that he will be included on the Angels’ post season roster as a bench bat that can provide game changing power late in a game.  We shall see.  regardless, he is on the cusp of being the regular 3B that the Angels have been searching for since the days of Dallas McPherson.

Wow, that was difficult and should provide fodder for great conversation.  Let’s see how it all plays out!

$100 Well Spent #2—100th Post!

Posted by Jeremy on August 9, 2008 under $100 Well Spent, Market Watch | 6 Comments to Read

As Mario at Wax Heaven celebrates his 1,000th post, I revel in crossing the 100 post threshold.  What better way to celebrate the 100th post than to orchestrate my second installment of $100 Well Spent.

My first forray into this catagory didn’t fare as well as I wished, so I figure that I would get back on the horse and try again.  This $100 will be spent on players that should get further looks when the rosters are expanded on Sept 1.

(10) 2007 Bowman Draft David Price—$15.00

• Price’s 11-0 start makes a strong case for a 2007 cameo for a Tampa Bay team that has shown no signs of faltering this season.  Price’s hype is growing, but so is the legend of the Rays.  Every card of Price’s will soar in popularity if and when he debuts.  I like the lower end stuff of his most.

(10) 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft Nolan Reimold—$10.00

• Reimold is at AA and may not make the jump to Baltimore this season.  I like what he’s done at AA and AAA Rochester doesn’t have any exciting OF’s.  Don’t be surprised if Reimold skips AAA and gets a chance to launch balls out of Camden Yard.

(2) 2005 Bowman Heritage Andrew McCutchen Auto—$35.00

• McCutchen has plateaued at AAA which means he bored and due for a promotion. McCutchen has extraordinary confidence and poise and he has excelled out of the gate after every promotion.  I expect the same in Pittsburgh, but with the acquisition of Brandon Moss and promotion of Stephen Pearce, he may have to wait until Sept. for a look.

(10) 2003 Bowman Chrome Draft Sean Rodriguez—$12.50

• Ok, his first audition didn’t go so well, but Sean-Rod has torn it up at Salt Lake City since his demotion and Angels officials love Rodriguez’s potential.  With the Angels in a pennant race, Rodriguez likely will not get regular playing time, but he may make some key contributions during the pennant stretch.  Same goes for Brandon Wood.

(1) 2006 Bowman Sterling Refractor Dexter Fowler (#’ed/199)—$10.00

• Fowler is in China right now with Team USA, but when he returns he could find himself wearing purple and patrolling CF for the Rockies.  With Matt Holliday’s possible departure, the Rockies should give Fowler a look as to better assess their offseason strategy with Holliday.  Fowler’s ceiling is off the charts, and he may not need much more seasoning at the minor league level.  Though his first year autos are in the 2004 Donruss Elite Extra set, his ‘06 offerings should be quite popular.

(3) 2005 Bowman Sterling John Mayberry Jr. Auto—$17.50

• David Murphy’s knee injury and Nelson Cruz’s strained quad may give Mayberry a little window of opportunity to vault into the Rangers’ OF mix.  Cruz’s injury is not thought to be too serioius, but quad injuries can become nagging and resurface at any time.  The Rangers are a vastly improved team, and should use this off season to acquire some pitching of some sort if they ever want to knock the L.A. Angels off of their AL West perch.  Mayberry, and Cruz for that matter, could be nice trade commodities that will be showcased in Sept once the Rangers fall out of the Wild Card race for good.

That does it for Post #100!  Bring on your skepticism or praise .  Regardless, thank you to all of you who have checked out my stuff on a regular basis and offered your input.  Feel free to send me an email shout at portersprospectreport@yahoo.com to introduce yourself as I am always interested in who you invisible readers are!

 I look forward to continuing to provide up to date baseball prospect news, notes, and opinions.  May the next 100 posts to be even better than the first!

$100 Well Spent—One Month Check Up

Posted by Jeremy on July 16, 2008 under $100 Well Spent | Be the First to Comment

As some of my more seasoned readers may recall, I wrote a post one month ago from today that showed how I would be spending a $100 bill on prospects if given to me.  Well, it’s time to hold my feet to the fire and see how it paid off.

Before we begin, I must admit that I did not, in fact, purchase any of these cards since posting this article.  For your convenience, I will re-create the purchase list below (Prices were determined from the final value plus shipping costs of auctions ending within two days of 6/15) My comments are in italics:

2005 Bowman Chrome Draft John Mayberry Jr. Auto     

Was:    $20.00

Now:   $17.00

Net: -$3.00

• Uh oh, not a good start for the self-proclaimed “prospecting expert”.  However, I will still buy Mayberry’s stuff knowing that he will get a look in September.  I don’t think he is quite ready for the show, but I do think that he will earn a trip to the Arizona Fall League to prepare for Spring Training ‘09 and, perhaps, a roster spot with the vastly improved Rangers.

2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Chris Davis (X5)        

Was:           $20.00

Now:          $27.50

Net Gain: $7.50

• This gain would have been doubled a couple of weeks ago when Davis was bashing HR’s right after his debut.  Cards were then selling in the $7-8 range for about 4-5 days.  With this being Davis’ only true 1st year card, I am kind of tempted to hold out for it to reach the $10-12 range.  The risk being, of course, that he has a propensity to strike out often which affects his batting average.  If his prices dip down to the $4 range, I would buy a batch again.

2005 Topps Traded Craig Italiano Refractor Auto  

Was:    $13.00

Now:   $12.00 (and dropping)

Net: -$1.00

• If there was ever someone who fell flat on their face after a promotion it’s Italiano.  After dominating at Low A Kane County, he went to Stockton and has pitched increasingly worse in each of his outings.  The utter lack of control is cause for me to sell and run away screaming from his cards.  The A’s have too much other pitching depth within their organization to feel compelled to pin all of their hopes on Italiano.  Though he has electrifying stuff, I see Italiano’s future to be in the bullpen rather than every 5th day. Yes, I know I have changed my tune….sorry.

2008 Bowman Signs of the Future Chris Tillman Auto     

Was: $12.00  

Now: $9.00

Net: -$3.00

• This is one of the more headscratching losses to me.  Perhaps it is because he has lost 3 of his last 4 decisions, or perhaps the speculation that he may have a chrome autograph in the Upcoming Bowman Chrome set (he doesn’t) has devalued his only non-minor league autographed card in circulation.  Regardless, I will buy more and more of these as Tillman is one of the best young arms in baseball and this is his only non-XRC…and it’s autographed!  Bowman Signs of the Future has never been a major hit with prospectors as chrome autos reign supreme, but this card will be a nice long term hold for the top pitcher in the Baltimore Orioles’ vastly improved farm system.  I am acutally happy about this price drop.

2003 Team USA Jeff Clement Blue Jersey Auto (#/150)     

Was:    $15.50    

Now:   $9.00

Net: -$6.50

• Are we noticing a trend here with my picks?  In my defense, there was not sufficient market data to ascertain an accurate value for these cards, and in future similar posts, I think I will stick to cards that have more market exposure.  That being said, it is easy to see why Clement’s cards are decreasing in value as he is, again, failing to consistently hit MLB pitching.  Am I concerned?  Mildly.  However, I have a great deal of faith in his ability to power his way out of this slump.  In waching Clement’s AB’s on a regular basis, it is glaringly apparent that he is trying to pull everything that he swings at.  His HR the other night was on the outside corner of the plate but still found its way into the seats in right field.  He needs to start driving the ball to left and, when he does, watch out!  The USA autos of his are cool, but I think that I will be scouring the net for good deals on his ‘05 cards.

2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects Max Ramirez ( X8 )     

Was:    $20.00

Now:   $12.00

Net: -$8.00

• Ramirez was jettisoned directly from AA Frisco to Texas when Gerald Laird went onto the DL.  Ramirez expectedly struggled early but really began to hit well when Jarrod Saltalamacchia missed a few games with a groin injury.  This guy is all hitter and his brief audition has showed to me that it is, in fact, Salty who is the likely trading chip for the Rangers.  In need of pitching, I would not be shocked to see Texas package Saltalamacchia in a deal to gather a solid arm for their rotation either at the deadline or in the offseason.  I may have overspent early on Ramirez’s cards, but I think I will come out ahead by holding these and gathering more at their current $1.50-1.75 rates.

Tale of the Ticker Tape:

$100 spent amounts to be worth $85.50 after one month.  Subtracting EBay fees, Paypal deductions, and shipping costs and the results are….well…OUCH!  That’s alright, the business of prospecting is a fluctuation-filled process that finds its most successful denizens to be the ones who can regularly determine the best time to buy, sell, and hold.  The pursuit of proficiency in this arena, makes baseball card prospecting the frustratingly exhilerating hobby that it is!

P.S. Upon further review, I noticed that my list had a heavy AL West bias to it.  I assure you it was merely coincidence and not evidence of a subconcious affinity for West Coast prospects.  I will be much more conscientious next time to spread the love to the rest of MLB

Use the comment thread to share what cards you would purchase with the $100.

$100 Well Spent

Posted by Jeremy on June 15, 2008 under $100 Well Spent | Be the First to Comment

Whether it is in a birthday card from Grandma or the proceeds from some extra work at the office, everyone loves the sight of a crisp Benjamin.  As a baseball card speculator, how would you spend your money to get the best resale bang for your buck within the next 6 months?

Below, I have submitted my list using average Ebay prices over the past week (shipping included).

2005 Bowman Chrome Draft John Mayberry Jr. Auto              $20.00

2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Chris Davis (X5)                       $20.00

2005 Bowman Sterling Craig Italiano Refractor Auto (#/199)  $13.00

2008 Bowman Signs of the Future Chris Tillman Auto             $12.00  

2003 Team USA Jeff Clement Blue Jersey Auto (#/150)          $15.50    

2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects Max Ramirez (X8)               $20.00

                                                                   Total Price:   $100.50

Okay, so I exceeded my limit by 50 cents.  Maybe, I can swing a better deal on one of these items.  All these guys are pretty close to major league ready and they, in my opinion, have high ceilings that they have not yet approached.

Give me your buy list, and we will see how we do over the next month or so…