6/15 High-A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on June 16, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

Milwaukee Brewers OF prospect Caleb Gindl seems to be back on track, hitting his 8th HR yesterday, while driving in two runs and scoring three times.  The Brian Giles clone is rebounding from a terrible month of May where he hit just .195 with 27 K in 23 games.  Gindl has homered in three of his last four games and is batting .305 during the month of June.  Last season, the 20 year old hit .307 with 13 HR 81 RBI 38 doubles and 86 runs scored for Low-A West Virginia.  While he shares a resemblence to San Diego’s All-Star right fielder, Gindl still needs to make great strides in developing his plate discipline.  He draws a lot of walks, but strikes out a ton (144 times in ‘08).  Still, there is quite a bit to like about the young Brewer and, given Milwaukee’s organizational depth in the outfield, Caleb should have ample time to develop.

Red Sox pitching prospect Casey Kelly has handled his promotion well, winning his first game at High-A Salem and 7th game overall.  Kelly tossed six innings allowing four hits and just one earned run while striking out five.  It is customary for pitchers to struggle with their control after being promoted, as many try to do too much to succeed against more advanced hitters.  Kelly has been hit in a couple of his outings, but has issued just one walk in 22.2 IP since his promotion.  This stunning command makes him one of Boston’s most intriguing pitching prospects and it seems that his days as a potential shortstop prospect are a thing of the past.

Today’s top prospect is L.A. Dodgers 1B prospect Steve Caseres.  The James Madison alum and ‘08 draftee went 3-3 with his 9th and 10th HR and five RBI.  Caseres has been on a tear as of late, hitting .438 with 5 HR 11 RBI and seven runs scored in his last 10 games.  The left handed hitter was not one of the Dodgers’ top prospects entering the ‘09 season, but his build (6-4 220 lb.) and powerful bat falls in line with that of a prototypical 1B prospect.  This is an area in which the Dodgers don’t have a great deal of depth.  Granted, there are several prospects (Andrew Lambo, Josh Bell, Austin Gallagher) who may end up making the transition to 1B from other positions, but Caseres has the build and power to hold his own against potential comers inside the Dodgers farm system.

High-A Minor League Report—STEVE CASERES

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Denis Phipps—3-5 HR(5) 3 RBI SB(5)
• Shane Peterson—2-5 2B 3B 2 RBI
• Caleb Gindl—1-2 HR(8) 2 RBI 3R 2 BB
• Austin Romine—2-5 RBI R
• Ike Davis—2-4 2B R RBI BB
• Jake Opitz—2-4 2 2B 2 RBI R
• Chris Marrero—3-4 2B R
• Pedro Baez—3-4 2r
• Steve Caseres—3-3 2 HR(10) 5 RBI 2R
• Preston Mattingly—3-5 3B R
• Jon Gaston—4-5 HR(16) 2 RBI 2R
• T.J. Steele—2-4 HR(4) 4 RBI 2B 2R BB
• James Shuck—2-4 2B 3B 2 SB(14)
• Ryne White—3-5 2 HR(3) 5 RBI 2R
• Buster Posey—2-2 2B 2R 2 BB
• Roger Kieschnick—3-4 2 2B 2 RBI
• Thomas Neal—2-4 HR(12) RBI
• Yefri Carvajal—3-4 SB(6)
• Jemile Weeks—3-4 2B R RBI SB(2)
• Julian Perez—2-4 HR(8) 2 RBI
• Joe Dunigan—1-5 HR(16) RBI

Pitching:

• Corey Luebke—8 IP H 2 ER 11K
• David Bromberg—6.1 IP 3H 4 BB 5K
• Evan Anundsen—8.1 IP 7H ER 2 BB 5K W (7-1)
• Kenny Moreland—5 IP 3H 2K W (1-0)
• Dan Hudson—7 IP 5H 2 ER BB 8K W (5-5)
• Casey Kelly—6 IP 4H ER 5K W (7-3)
• Jose Ortegano—7.1 IP 2H Er 2 BB 5K W (3-5)

Hot Prospect Profile—DESMOND JENNINGS

Posted by Jeremy on May 6, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

Now Healthy and Using His Tools Well

He’s Baaaaack! 

Last year’s injury riddled season deflated some helium out of the hype balloon that the young Rays OF prospect created with a stellar 2007 season that saw him hit .315 with 9 HR 37 RBI 45 SB and 75 runs scored in just 99 games at Low-A Columbus.  Jennings missed the first two months of the ‘08 season recovering from a back injury and played just 24 games at High-A Vero Beach before he had season ending shoulder surgery.  Jennings recovered in time to make a brief appearance in the Arizona Fall League where he batted .231 with a HR, 7 RBI and 3 SB in 12 games. 

What I wrote on 11/24/08 for Hot-Prospects.net:

2008 was a lost season for the Rays’ top OF prospect.  Jennings was limited to just 24 games during the regular season as he suffered a lower back injury and had season ending shoulder surgery.  Jennings returned to play in the second half of the Arizona Fall League hitting .231 with a HR 7 RBI and 3 SB in 39 AB.  When healthy, Jennings is a bright 5-tool athlete who turned down a scholarship to play WR at Alabama to pursue his baseball career.  Jennings has blazing speed and a line drive bat that drives the ball well to the gaps.  His long lean frame projects that he could add more power to be a 15-20 HR hitter down the road.  Jennings makes good contact at the plate and his advanced strike zone knowledge helps him to draw walks as well.  Defensively, Jennings utilizes his eye-popping speed to cover vast swathes of space in CF and his arm strength is solid.  The biggest variable to Jennings’ game is his inability to stay healthy.  Jennings has had knee surgery, shoulder surgery, and back problems within the past two years, hampering his development as a pro.  If he can stay healthy for a sustained amount of time, Desmond is a top-tier future lead-off hitter with All-Star written all over him.

2009 Projection: Jennings’ involvement in the AFL gives the notion that the Rays would like to challenge him with a promotion to AA Montgomery to start the season.  Keep an eye on the injury reports and cross your fingers that he doesn’t find his way on the DL next season.  If he can reproduce the success that he enjoyed in 2007 at Low-A Columbus, Jennings should move quickly through the Rays’ system with an ETA of mid-summer 2010 being a good possibility.  The Rays could use a good lead off hitter with base stealing speed to set the table for Upton-Longoria-Pena.  Jennings could be just the right fit.

UPDATE: Jennings has been red hot since being promoted to AA Montgomery, batting .391 with 3 HR 21 RBI 9 SB and 20 runs scored in just 27 games.  Additionally, he has combined to hit 7 doubles and 5 triples during that same time frame.  The increase in power output has had a slightly detrimental effect on plate discipline as his 6 BB/19 K ratio is less than the stellar numbers he put up in 2007 (45 BB/53 K). 

MARKET REPORT:  Prospectors are elated with the early success that the 22 year old Tampa Bay Ray has displayed and the market has responded in kind.  Per card prices of his 2008 Donruss Threads Autograph (#’ed/749) has increased by more than 400% (I bought one at $4.65) since last November, currently commanding prices of $20-22.50 each.  His first year Bowman Chrome base cards are starting to get some more market attention as well as bulk lots have been selling at per card prices of $1.50-2.00 each.

MY TAKE: Jennings is assuredly one of the most athletic and toolsy OF prospects in minor league baseball.  His total package of skills easily places him with the elite at that position and there is more room for projection.  At 6-2 190 lb., there is reason to believe that Jennings can develop more HR power while not significantly affecting his already elite speed.  The main rub with Desmond, however, is the propensity for injuries.  His two maladies from last season were not the first as an injury to his lateral miniscus in late 2007 marks three significant injuries sustained in less than two seasons.  Players that sustain injuries at young ages have time and again recovered from them to put together long and successful careers.  Conversely, injuries have also derailed many a promising career before the player’s full potential is ever realized.

I don’t know where Jennings lies on this list.  He appears to be fully healthy and his numbers to this point are eye popping.  But the spectre always looms and is some cause for concern.  I like the prices of his first year base cards (non-chromes are even cheaper) in bulk and would avocate buying them, but as for his auto….I’ll be happy with my 400% profit and will be selling it now.

Key Desmond Jennings Cards on Current eBay Auctions:

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

Posted by Jeremy on May 2, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

The chronic shoulder soreness of Travis Hafner added with a red hot month of April at AAA Columbus has ushered in the long-awaited Matt LaPorta era.  The Cleveland Indians will call up LaPorta on Saturday and, given Hafner’s health over the past couple of seasons, it is quite conceivable that the Indians’ top prospect  will be playing full time either as a DH or outfielder. 

Here’s what I wrote about the former Florida Gator for Hot-Prospects.net on 11/13/08….

LaPorta got off to a red hot start last season as the centerpiece of AA Huntsville’s star-studded lineup.  LaPorta belted 20 HR in just 84 games while hitting .288.  LaPorta then was traded to the Cleveland Indians in the C.C. Sabathia trade where he struggled in a brief stint before playing in Beijing for the bronze medal winning U.S. Olympic Baseball Team.  LaPorta has light tower power that could translate into 30-40 HR per season at the major league level. He has a keen eye at the plate and works counts well. Numerous coaches and players have given him credit for having an unparalleled work ethic as well.  Defensively and athletically, LaPorta is limited.  His arm strength and foot speed will relegate him to LF or 1B and he will never be a threat on the basepaths.  It is LaPorta’s bat that commands respect, though, and his power is real.

2009 Projection: LaPorta is playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason and has struggled offensively.  Expect him to start the ‘09 season at AAA Buffalo as the Indians are eager to get him into their lineup at some point in 2009.  Watch to see if LaPorta can get his considerable offensive potential back on track early.  If so, his 2007 Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite Extra Autographs could experience a considerable bump in market value.

UPDATE: LaPorta has definitely gotten things back on track at Columbus hitting .333 with 5 HR 14 RBI and 22 runs scored in just 21 games.  He has good plate discipline to compliment his 30+ HR power walking 9 times versus 10 K’s this season.  With no really solid AL Rookie of the Year performances to date, there is still an ample opportunity for the Indians’ top prospect to distinguish himself as the top rookie hitter in the junior circuit.

Current eBay Values for LaPorta’s Cards:

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft—$3.50-5.00
• 2007 Bowman Sterling Auto—$40.00-45.00
• 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto (#/593)—$38.00-42.00
• 2008 Bowman Chrome Auto—$40.00-45.00

As you can see, expectations are high for LaPorta to succeed at the major league level but is there room for growth in his autographed cards?  I would say yes, but with the caveat that spending nearly $50 on an autograph makes it much more risky to generate a nice return on investment than a lower priced card does.  I’ll cover this method of prospecting in a future article (I promise).

To me, the best buys for an elite prospect like Matt LaPorta can be found in the Bowman base and Chrome cards, preferrably from the ‘07 set.  Once LaPorta starts heating up and sending balls into the seats at Jacobs Field, several of the more casual baseball card fans will start hitting the eBay market hard in hopes of adding the young slugger to their collections.  This level of collector tends to seek out the cheaper cards, but tends to pay close to, and in some cases above, full book value for these cards.  Snagging a bulk lot of base cards at $1.00-1.50 apiece could turn into exponential profits within a short period of time.

Here are some current Matt LaPorta auctions on eBay

Hot Prospect Profile: NOLAN REIMOLD

Posted by Jeremy on April 30, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

Love the mullet!

What I wrote about Reimold on Hot-Prospects.net on 11/21/2008…

O’s fans got a dose of what Reimold can do when fully healthy. Reimold battered AA pitching this season to the tune of a .284 25 HR 84 RBI 87 runs scored. Reimold has a power hitters frame at 6-4 210 lb. that is deceptively athletic. His right-handed swing generates easy power to all fields and he controls the strike zone effectively, earning 62 BB this season. Reimold’s success has continued in the Arizona Fall League where he started slowly but has come back to hit .273 with 4 HR and 18 RBI in 24 games.  Defensively, he has good range and a cannon arm built for RF. The main detractor to Reimold’s success has been his proneness to injury, though his healthy ‘08 season is cause for optimism. Additionally, due to his advanced age, Nolan will have added pressure to make a positive MLB impact earlier than many younger prospects.  Failure to do so may relegate him to the dreaded role of 4th outfielder or, even worse, AAAA player.

2009 Projection: Expect Reimold to get plenty of AB’s in spring training with an outside shot of earning a spot on the O’s opening day rosters.  More likely, Reimold will start 2009 at AAA with a promotion to Baltimore happening soon.  Watch to see how well Reimold plays this spring.  If he hits well, there is a shot that he could find his way onto the roster in a possible platoon position with O’s LF Luke Scott.  A future outfield of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Reimold should give Orioles fans ample reasons to be excited about their team’s future.

UPDATE: Reimold put up big numbers in spring training in a limited period of time going 9-28 with 4 HR 8 RBI and 2 SB while earning a respectible 4 BB/5K ratio.  Regardless of his hot start, he was sent to AAA Norfolk in mid-March as there was no room for him on Baltimore’s roster.  Fast forward to today and we find that Reimold is tearing apart International League pitching to the tune of a .403 BA with 6 HR 19 RBI 4 SB and 14 runs scored in just 19 games.  The left field platoon of Felix Pie (.157 BA 1 HR 2 RBI) and Ty Wigginton (.205 1 HR 8 RBI) has been lackluster at best leaving O’s Manager Dave Trembley to say about Reimold “I talked to our scouts about him. He’s off to a real nice start and I hope it continues because he’s a guy that we all feel can help us. When that is, I’m not sure, but I know he is probably a lot further along than we all anticipated at this particular point in time.”

Bringing up Reimold on June 1st seems to be the logical choice, though his bat may force himself into the lineup much sooner.  At 25 years old, Nolan has the polish that several other promising minor leaguers lack.  Match that with his solid plate discipline and there is much reason to believe that he will not struggle in the same way that several other younger, more aggressively pushed prospects do once they make their major league debuts.  I expect that Reimold will arrive and make significant offensive contributions to an already talented Orioles linuep.

The eBay market for his products is starting to heat up as the prices of his first year 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft cards have risen from the $0.50-1.00 levels of a couple months ago to the $2.00-3.00 range now.  His 2007 Bowman Heritage autos have also jumped somewhat during that same period of time from $4.00-6.00 to $10.00-12.50 today. 

Exponential price increases are always a good thing if you are an investor and bummers if you are a prospective buyer.  I think there is still quite a bit of room for growth in Reimold’s cards, though, as history has shown that the largest market jumps for rookie cards happen during short productive periods following a major league debut.  The question that a prospective buyer must mull over is whether or not the player, in this case Nolan Reimold, will succeed or fail during that window of time and, if they succeed, how will the market respond?

My gut tells me that the current eBay values are about half of what they will be during the one month window following his major league debut.  Trembley has indicated that when Reimold is called up, he will be called up to play every day.  That should allow Nolan to establish a firm foundation of continuity and allow for him to confidently build on positive performances-a luxury that he wouldn’t necessarily have if he was relegated to a platoon role.

Let’s see how my aggressive projection pans out!  I have a feeling that we will all be founding out sooner rather than later.  

Looking for some good Reimold deals?  Here’s just a little sampling on what’s on eBay right now.

Hot Prospect Profile: JAKE FOX

Posted by Jeremy on April 28, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

Yesterday, Iowa Cubs slugger Jake Fox deposited two more balls into the cheap seats to boost his MiLB-leading total to 11 HR.  Fox’s numbers through the first 18 games (.443 BA 11 HR 29 RBI 21 runs scored) are legendary, but is it enough to sustain or increase the hobby heat that he has generated over the past couple of weeks?

Last season Fox played at AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa combining to hit .287 with 31 HR 105 RBI 39 doubles and 93 runs scored.  Most of his success was at Tennessee and his struggles to command the strike zone at Iowa (2 BB/31 K in 29 games) played a large part in his omission from a September Wrigley Field call up.  This season is an entirely different story, though as the former Michigan Wolverine impressed Chicago Cubs brass by hitting .350 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in spring training before tearing it up in his second stint at Iowa.

Currently, the Chicago Cubs are well set at 1B with perennial All-Star and Gold Glover Derrek Lee handling the duties, but the outfield offers some opportunities for Fox’s proliferation.  While Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome have been rock solid at the corners and Micah Hoffpauir has been quite effective as a left-hand hitting fourth outfielder, the Cubs could decide to recall Fox if (and when?) the tremendously disappointing Milton Bradley goes on the DL. 

The current eBay market for Fox’s cards has gone from non-existent to pleasantly warm over the past couple of weeks.  His premium card is undoubtedly his 2003 Upper Deck Prospect Premieres autograph which commands a current eBay price of $22-25 each.  Aside from that he has first year base cards from the once popular ‘03 Prospect Premieres set that sell for $1.00-1.25 each. 

Fox also has non-autographed cards in the 2007 Bowman Sterling set that have not had any eBay sales over the past two weeks.  This trend will not continue.  Expect to pay $2.50-4.00 for these cards right now and possibly more if he catches a break with the Cubbies.

BUY OR SELL: The autographs are really the only cards of his generating any considerable market attention right now and at their prices, it seems like a good sell.  His long term opportunities with the Cubbies will be limited as he is a right handed, one dimensional weapon in the same vein as other sluggers like Chip Cannon, Dallas McPherson and others.  On the other hand, his lower end base cards are at prices that could be nice value buys to hold on to for a brief period until Fox launches a couple of balls over the ivy at Wrigley. 

At that point….well….you know what to do.

Hot Prospect Profile: Jason Knapp

Posted by Jeremy on April 23, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

Jason Knapp—Philadelphia Phillies RHP

H/W:  6-5  215 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  8/31/90

What I wrote for Hot-Prospects.net on December 19, 2008…

With a 2nd round pick and $590 K signing bonus, the Philadelphia Phillies were able to lure this tall right hander away from a scholarship at North Carolina.  Knapp paid immediate dividends going 3-1 with the Phillies GCL affiliate with a 2.61 ERA and 12 BB/38 K in 31 IP.   Armed with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH, Knapp has clean mechanics and a strong, projectible frame that should serve him well as a inning-eating starter.  Scouts rave at his ability to use his leverage to throw the ball on a downhill plane, making his fastball heavier to hit.  While he has a good feel for his offspeed pitches, there is still much room for refining and building arm strength to make them more effective.  Knapp has shown early on that he can locate his fastball as he allowed just 1 HR in the Gulf Coast League last season.  He is not afraid to go after hitters and has a good competitive demeanor on the mound.

2009 Projection: While he performed good enough to earn a full season nod at full season Low-A Lakewood, the World Champs may decide to hold Knapp back at their extended spring training camp to work more on his off speed pitches before sending him to short season Williamsport.  If Knapp earns the nod to full season ball, keep a close eye on his performances.  Knapp is an under the radar pitching prospect that has the body and stuff at a young age to be a frontline starter down the road.

2009 UPDATE:

Despite the two tough luck losses, Knapp has been as dominant as any pitcher in the minor leagues to this point.  In his first outing of the season, Knapp struck out 10 hitters in 5.2 innings allowing just two runs.  His outing on April 21st, though, was truly magnificent as he surrendered just one hit over seven scoreless innings punching out 14 hitters and walking just one.  My earlier projection holds true but now there is reason to believe that Knapp may become a fast track pitcher who jumps to the High-A ranks at some point this season. 

CURRENT EBAY MARKET:

• Knapp has two autographed cards in the 2008 sets.  His Bowman Sterling autos and Donruss Elite Extra autos (#/999) sell for $8-10 each which, surprisingly, is at roughly the same rates that they were going for at the time that these sets were released. 

BUY OR SELL: 

• Duh, BUY!  This guy has the size, stuff, and early performance numbers to rapidly become one of baseball’s top RHP prospects. 

Key Jason Knapp Baseball Cards:

• 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/999
• 2008 Playoff Contenders Auto
• 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto