PPR Mailbag: Jason Heyward’s 2010 Season

Posted by Jeremy on August 12, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | 3 Comments to Read

Another question made its way into the mailbag yesterday and it’s one that I am sure is on several minds….including my own.

Question:  So do you think Heyward grabs a starting role in the Majors straight out of camp next year? He’s certainly dominating AA.

Answer: Heyward’s jump to AA has exceeded expectations as he is hitting .405 with 6 HR 24 RBI and 12 doubles over 32 games with Mississippi.  What’s more is the fact that Heyward has drawn 17 free passes versus 12 K’s.  The 2010 season looks very interesting for the Braves as both Ryan Church and Garrett Anderson are signed just through the end of this season.  Anderson will be a free agent, unlikely to return, and Church will be arbitration elligible and the jury is out about whether the Braves will offer it to him. 

This opens the doors for players like Heyward, Jordan Schafer, and Brandon Jones to vie for those spots.  It will be interesting to see what the Braves decide to do in the offseason and towards the end of this season.  Just three games out of the NL Wild Card spot, Atlanta is in the thick of the playoff hunt, which should give them pause to experiment much with Heyward, but that could well change by the end of this month.  He’ll get a look in September but may not get a pronounced number of AB’s if the Braves stay in the hunt. 

As for the offseason, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that Heyward will play in the AFL this winter.  Often, this is a league that is dedicated for the top prospects who figure prominently into their club’s plans for the following season.  Despite being just 20 years old on opening day, I think Heyward will be the starting RF and will hit right away.  He is the top prospect in baseball right now and should become a household name beyond the collecting ranks by next season.  Hope for a slowdown in the market for his cards this winter and buy in copious amounts.

PPR Mailbag: Chris Carter and Brett Wallace

Posted by Jeremy on under Readers Mailbag | Read the First Comment

I plucked these questions from a previous comments thread and thought they would make great mailbag discussion questions. Feel free to add your input and thank you Eric for the questions.

Question: Does Chris Carter have any future at 1B or is he a full-time DH when he hits the ML circuit?  Also, do you think Brett Wallace will have to move across the diamond to 1B or are they going to everything they can to keep him at 3B?

Answer: Carter’s defense has been an area of question for some time now, but a brief look at the numbers indicates that he has made measurable improvements this season.  Last year, Carter committed 10 errors in just 41 games at 1B at High-A Stockton, but this season he’s cut that down to seven errors in 98 games at 1B.  While I haven’t watched him in person (something I hope to rectify next season), he seems to be more agile and athletic than last year, as testified by his increased SB totals and better fielding statistics.  The A’s already have a potential Gold Glove 1B in Sean Doolittle, but the Virginia alum has been on the DL since late May and looks to be a future RF for the A’s.  I am quite optimistic that Carter will be the future 1B for the A’s by as soon as the middle of next season.

Brett Wallace is an adaquate defensive 3B prospect whose below average athleticism and mobility is compensated by a good work ethic and soft hands.  The A’s don’t have any other third base prospects with the offensive upside of Wallace, which should prompt the A’s to compromise some defensive mobility in favor of a better bat in the lineup (something that they are quite used to doing).  Eventually Wallace should shift to a new position, but don’t be surprised if it is DH rather than 1B.

PPR Mailbag—Michael Stanton vs. Angel Villalona

Posted by Jeremy on May 12, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

I got two great emails today from two of PPR’s more inquisitive viewers.  I love to get mail from you all with your thoughts and theories to this whole enigmatic and ever-changing process of baseball card prospecting.  This question comes from Justin who wrote in response to my most recent praise of Florida Marlins OF prospect Michael Stanton.  He writes:

Since you wrote up about Michael Stanton, it got me thinking. Who would you rather have and who do you think is the better buy, Michael Stanton or Angel Villalona. Although Villalona is in the hitter-friendly Cal League and Stanton is in the pitcher-friendly Florida St league, Villalona has a much better average (despite less power) and is slightly cheaper as well. Sure Stanton is the better overall player in my eyes, but Villalona is younger and could develop nicely.

I did a little bit of market research and found that this is an even better question than I originally thought because of the similarities that both of these players share.  Both Stanton and Villalona had an auto in one of the 2008 Bowman Chrome sets (Villalona in the regular chrome and Stanton in the draft picks).  Each player is currently playing High-A ball and profiles as the best power hitting prospect in their respective organizations.  Despite their similarities, there are some distinct differences to note as well.  Let’s examine each player more closely:

Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins OF

H/W:  6-5  225 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  11/8/89

2009 Stats:

Current eBay Market Price $35-40

Strengths:

• Stanton has light tower power, as testified by his 39 HR barrage in what was his first full season last year.  Team officials lauded his work ethic this spring and his intense desire to be a student of the game. Beyond his strength, Stanton is said to be an excellent athlete with good speed and fluidity that he employs well in the outfield.  His arm strength should make him an ideal right fielder at the major league level. He has shown the ability to take walks and is showing some better selectivity at the plate.

Weaknesses:

• The high K rate is a major concern with all young prospects. Last year Stanton struck out 153 times in just 125 games. Additionally, he plays in a tough media market, Miami, that has historically has had a mitigable effect on the market exposure of many a talented player. Fan support in Florida has been tepid, though a new stadium in 2012 could help to change things.

Angel Villalona—San Francisco Giants 1B

H/W:  6-3  200 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  8/13/90

2009 Stats:

Current eBay Market Price $35-40

• Powerful frame and quick bat that projects to hit 35-40 HR per season.  He’s been reported to have a strong work ethic, despite being a bit shy and reserved.  In San Francisco, he plays for an organization that I believe has an extremely bright future and is on the cusp of being a perennial powerhouse in the NL West.  Contending teams draw more media and market attention, which is only beneficial to the bottom lines of the players that help contribute to that cause.

Weaknesses:

• His big body is soft and he looks much heavier than his listed weight.  He has less athleticism than Stanton and will be a liability on the basepaths as he ages.  Even more concerning his his truly terrible BB/K ratio.  This is not uncommon for international players his age as the game in places like the Dominican Republic focuses less on patience at the plate and more on aggressiveness.  Some young players are able to change their approaches, but even more continue to struggle with this.  Last year, Villalona’s first full season, he was able to garner a lowly 18 BB/118 K ratio and this year’s pace is not too much different.

In a Nutshell….

• Both players are extremely talented and should rocket thorugh their respective systems.  Each one has an obstacle-free path to the major leagues and are talented enough to force their ways into a major league lineup.  Stanton, to me, is the safer pick at this point despite Villalona’s better ‘09 offensive numbers.  His power is simply jaw dropping, evoking the venerable Peter Gammons to write an article lauding his brilliant potential.  The thing to watch with both Stanton and Villalona is, as it is with any player, is how each one addresses their weaknesses during their developmental road. 

Thank you Justin for your question and, as always, feel free to email me with all of your prospecting quips and queries!

PPR Mailbag—How Good is Josh Reddick?

Posted by Jeremy on April 14, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

I received a message in my inbox yesterday asking about the future investment outlook of Boston Red Sox OF prospect Josh Reddick.  Reddick has gotten off to a blazing start belting HR’s in each of this first three games.  For review’s sake, we’ll take a look at his fine 2008 numbers.

The 21 year old Reddick has shown that he is quite capable of handling pitching at the single-A level but struggled against AA pitching.  Given his youth, and rapid ascention a slight hiccup is not surprising and, evidenced by his early returns from ‘09, should not be a problem this season.  In earlier analysis, I compared Reddick to J.D. Drew minus the injuries and walks.  He has the ability to hit for a high batting average with 20-25 HR power and accrue 10-15 SB every season.  His range is good enough for CF and his arm is strong enought to play RF. 

Going forward, the Red Sox will need a right fielder to replace the gradually declining produciton of J.D. Drew.  Reddick is first in line for that opportunity and seemingly has enough talent to effectively fend off challenges from other talented OF’s in the Red Sox system like Ryan Kalish, Peter Hissey, Che-Hsuan Lin, Ryan Westmoreland and others. 

The market for Reddick’s 2008 Bowman Chrome Draft autos sits at about $20-23 each right now which, to me, seems like a strong buy.  Remember, Red Sox prospects have a history of creating huge impacts on the market following their MLB debuts (Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury).  Reddick will earn a promotion to AAA Pawtucket at some point this season, barring injury or attrition.  He may get a few Fenway AB’s in September and is sure to have a real chance to win a job this coming spring.

If Andrew Jackson resides in your wallet, trade him (and a few of his twins) for Reddick’s 2008 autos.

PPR Mailbag: Musings on the Matts for the M’s

Posted by Jeremy on February 27, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

M's wish this "Gini" would grant them more hits

I opened the mailbox this morning to find a question about the prognosticative futures of Seattle Mariner 3B prospects Matt Mangini and Matt Tuiasosopo. As a lifelong resident of the Pacific Northwest, my devout (albiet long suffering) affinity for the Seattle Mariners hopefully lends a little more credibility to my answer.  Let’s start with Matt Mangini. The 2008 season offered a mixed bag of results. On the positive side, he was able to cut back some of the injury woes that limited his progress late in 2007 but, when he did play, he really wasn’t that good. His numbers at High Desert looked decent on the surface (.265 6 HR 25 RBI 12 doubles in 181 AB), but the fact that he was playing in the hitter-friendly California League mitigates those accomplishments somewhat. Still, the M’s promoted Mangini to AA West Tennessee where he was truly awful (.202 2 HR 25 RBI 5 doubles in 238 AB). The problem?  A raw and undisciplined approach at the plate that saw him garner an anemic 12 BB/64 K ratio. Scouts touted Mangini’s bat highly prior to the ‘07 draft, calling him the 2nd most polished collegiate hitter in the draft behind Matt Wieters. His professional career has been anything but Wieters-esque. The added specter of declining defensive skills at the hot corner (23 errors in 115 games) means that a shift to 1B could happen in the future.  The depth of talent on the other side of the diamond is more shallow, but Mangini’s skill set is far behind new M’s farm hand Mike Carp and his age is more advanced. Neither of these bodes well for the former OSU Cowboy.

The bumpy road to Seattle may yet smooth out

The future for Matt Tuiasosopo looks a little more bullish, yet his path is not obstacle free either.  Tui posted his best season as a pro, hitting .281 with 13 HR 73 RBI 32 doubles and 87 runs scored in 111 games at AAA Tacoma.  Tuiasosopo has excellent athleticism and a strong 6-2 210 lb. frame that still has some projection left to it.  It seems like he has been in the M’s system forever since turning down the opportunity to play quarterback at the University of Washington to sign with the Mariners as a 3rd round pick in 2004.  I think that Tuiasosopo’s early stages of development was grossly mismanaged by the Mariners organization during the dark years of the Bill Bavasi era  He was expedited through the system at an early age being pushed to AA as a 20 year old despite the inability to demonstrate sound plate discipline or power production.  In fact, the power really didn’t start to manifest itself until the second half of the ‘08 season with Tacoma.  That burst allowed for him to earn a September call up where he struggled to grasp the strike zone.  Matt has shown ebbs and flows in his strike zone judgement.  He grinded out 72 walks during his second stint at AA in 2007, but managed just 47 at AAA this season.  

There are lots of tools to like in Tui’s game and his ability to resiliantly handle the breakneck speed that the M’s pushed him through their farm system shows that Matt has a good makeup and work ethic.  Couple that with the good bloodlines he possesses (brother Marques was a QB with the Oakland Raiders, his father, Manu, an 8-year NFL vet with the Seahawks and 49′ers), and there is reason to believe that the best is yet to come for the 22 year old.  

Watch the power numbers and BB/K ratio that he puts up at AAA this spring.  Adrian Beltre’s shelf life as a Mariner expires at the end of the 2009 season (perhaps sooner) which gives Matt a narrow window of time to prove to the organization that he is prepared to take the mantle until the mega-talented Jharmidy DeJesus is ready to snatch it from him.

PPR Mailbag

Posted by Jeremy on February 17, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | 2 Comments to Read

Hello all! I received a question from a viewer in my inbox today that I thought would be a perfect question for discussion fodder. It is italicized in bold font below:

First off I love your blog/site…keep up the great work. But a question I have for you, when you select a prospect auto card to invest in do you have a minimum amount of cards bought that you like to achieve? (i.e. 5, 10, 20)

Great question! 

Purchasing wholesale quantities of autographed prospects is a more expensive endeavor than stockpiling quantities of non-autographed base cards, as the per unit cost is considerably higher; especially if the prospect is prominantly known in the collecting circles. 

Rather than focus on numbers per say, I tend to look at a card’s value to price potential and what I like to call “proximate liquidity”.  I guess a card’s value to price potential is similar to a stock’s PE ratio.  Companies that generate a good amount of revenue compared to the price of their stock tend to be solid, more stable values.  The same can be said with a baseball card.  The value is a little more difficult to determine, however, because the market for a player’s potential is largely determined on his ability to meet the market’s expectations.  That is where effective player analysis and a good feel for the player’s developmental timeline really comes in handy.

Proximate liquidity is really a fancy way of saying “How soon can I generate my expected cash flow for this card?”  Prospects in the lower levels in the minor leagues are going to take longer to get to the big leagues than someone in AA or AAA.  While younger players often can be had for cheaper prices, the need for patience and the risk of attrition (especially in pitchers) is much greater. 

As players make their major league debuts and experience short term successes (remember Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz?), the market for their cards experiences a brief inflationary period as expectations of future prosperity abound.  Players that were once AA stat lines are now showcasing their skills on Baseball Tonight, Sportscenter or various local media outlets.  This, of course, creates a larger, less cost-savvy market that allows you to reach your projected profits more quickly.

 I do tend to buy in quantities when I have a strong hunch on a short term investment.  In 2006, I made a handsome sum off of Ryan Braun’s autos that I had been stockpiling since the late summer of ‘05.  When I purchased his stuff, I didn’t so much have a quota that I was looking to reach as much as a price that I thought would be a solid value and, just as importantly, a projected price at which I would sell the cards.

Honoring and consumating a sale at a pre-projected market price is a real discipline.  We as prospectors get into the habit of deal hunting and building our inventory with good value buys, but we often neglect the selling side of the transaction.  I made a killing on Ryan Braun RC’s in ‘06, but there have also been several times that I have held on to something beyond its value ceiling, waiting for an increase in the market price that inevitably never comes.

Hopefully this gives you a little more insight into the methods of my madness.  As I stated in a previous blog post, I will be undertaking a $100 Growth Project to put my “expertise” on the line.  I invite you all to check out that process as the year progresses.  I think we will all learn a thing or two along the way.

Do you have some buying/selling tips to share?  Perhaps a tidbit of prospecting prose to pontificate?  Share your thoughts in the comments section!

Alcides Escobar Cards—Sell ‘em if you’ve got ‘em

Posted by Jeremy on January 25, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | 2 Comments to Read

Stormy seas for 2009?

It is not every day that I receive letters in the ol’ mailbag, and it’s an even rarer day that I receive them from people connected to major league players or prospects.  Tonight, however, I did receive a letter from someone very close to Milwaukee Brewers SS phenom Alcides Escobar.

While I do not feel that it is completely appropriate to share the verbatum contents of the letter, I will impart to you that it was a scathing letter that, to me, casts serious doubts about Mr. Escobar’s emotional preparedness and fortitude to play at the major league level at this time.  The letter detailed some maturity issues and lapses in integrity that has reportedly led to Escobar’s dismissal from his Venezuelan Winter League team.  I looked all over the internet to confirm this, but came up empty.

Whether or not this story has teeth, news like this makes me wary.  Escobar is a young player (turned 22 in December) with top tier talent, but players with dubious character issues and problems with work ethic become prime candidates for failure at higher levels.  My gut tells me that he may struggle a bit at AAA Nashville this season.

Note to all sports fans: The men that wear the jerseys of the teams that we live for are, indeed, just men.  Some may be able to throw a ball faster than a Ford Focus or be able to outrun an El Camino, but in the end, they are as human as you and me.  None are worthy of our worship and all are flawed in more ways than one.

My best wishes and thanks to the person who wrote me that letter.  May the One worthy of worship and praise bless you richly.

WGR 550 AM’s “The Hobby”

Posted by Jeremy on December 4, 2008 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

 For those of you who have not yet heard of this show, “The Hobby” is a weekly radio show that airs on Buffalo’s WGR 550 AM on Saturday mornings from 8-9 AM EST.  There are also archives available for your online listening pleasure.  The show is hosted by Mike Schopp and it covers various elements of the sports card collecting industry.

This week’s show features my good friend Mario Alejandro from Wax Heaven discussing the world of sportscard blogging.  If you haven’t read Mario’s blog by now…what are you waiting for?  Mario recently passed 500,000 visitors to his site in just a little more than a year’s time.  For a podunk blogger like me who gets excited when I reach 500 daily page views, this is quite an accomplishment.

Take some time to enjoy “The Hobby”.  Mike Schopp has worked very hard to present our exciting hobby in a positive light to new audiences.  Mike is always open to receiving emails for future show ideas and concepts.

PPR Mailbag: Interview with Adam McFarland

Posted by Jeremy on October 30, 2008 under Readers Mailbag | Read the First Comment

I received an interesting email in my inbox today from my new friend Mike Johnson who is the owner of Cardscape.net, a budding site that serves as a resource for cataloging sports card collections.  In the article, Mike interviews Adam McFarland who is the proprietor of sports card blog Sports Lizard, a high-quality independent card pricing resource that gives a different look to the market than other conventional price guides.

Introductions aside, here is the interview in its entirety…well done by both Mike and Adam!

Figuring out what your sports cards are actually worth can be a tricky process. Depending on what source you use (Beckett, Tuff Stuff, etc.), you may or may not get a really accurate or current value. But what happens when you mix in current economic conditions such as the state of the economy that we are now facing in the United States? CardScape.net decided to pick the brain of Adam McFarland, owner of SportsLizard.com, to get his thoughts on card values, the economy, and some of the other factors involved in sports card valuation.Pricing Tool that allows collectors to quickly and easily get an approximate value for a card or collectible. You type in what you’re interested in valuing and we spit out a number. It’s as simple as a Google search. It works by aggregating all of the items available for sale on eBay, SportsLizard, and a bunch of other sites, and gives you a number using our formula that also factors in our sales and search data.an article that I wrote that I feel explains a fool proof method for valuing any card or collectible. It’s the culmination of everything I’ve learned as a lifetime collector. Generally it takes less than five minutes and can be done using free tools available on the web.Collector’s Voice, a service that aggregates all of the articles from the best collecibles bloggers on the web into one common location. It allows collectors to discover new sources of card information so they don’t have to rely on what Beckett or Tuff Stuff feeds them. For anyone who sells on eBay or has a website, we allow them to syndicate their listings in our marketplace for free through our seller program. As a buyer, a quick search of our marketplace gives you results from our 20,000+ items, everything on eBay, and everything listed on Google Product Search. I think it’s the best way to quickly find the card or collectible you’re looking for.

CardScape: Hi Adam. First off, I’d like to thank you for taking time to share your knowledge and insight on this topic. So let’s get right to it. Does a down economy affect card values?

Adam McFarland: I think it has to. Cards are a commodoty item, an unnecessary expense, and when faced with the choice of paying the bills or buying a box of cards, the bills will always win. The hobby has really evolved to rely on the collector who spends their disposable income on cards. We’re talking hundreds of dollars a month, not just a few packs here and there. Those same collectors also drive the secondary market. The “hot” cards in the hobby, generally cost $50 or $100 or more. The demand is there because there’s someone willing to pay that much for a card pulled out of a pack. When those people diminish (as they likely will), values will definitely diminish as well. How much is anyone’s guess.

CS: During bad economic times, is there anything, in your opinion, that the sports card industry as a whole can do to help protect itself from declines in card values?

AM: It will be interesting to see how Topps, Upper Deck, Donruss, etc react to the economic downturn. Certainly they have a challenge at hand to avoid having sales dip. If big companies in the industry end up going down, it will hurt the hobby. More options are always better for the consumer.They spend a ton of money getting signatures and memorabilia to put into cards. That’s the most obvious thing I see getting trimmed back. Less autos and relics. Hopefully they can come up with creative substitutions that will keep collectors happy.

Personally, I think that times like this help drive innovation because it forces you to think outside the box. Maybe the result is less autos and relics like I just speculated. Maybe it’s a reduction in the number of sets released. Maybe it’s something I’m not thinking of. Either way, I think it’ll be an interesting and possibly exciting time for collectors who are open to change.

CS: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements: Card values are like stocks in the stock market. There are fluctuations in values, but over the long term, cards will increase in value.

AM: Not really. I believe that great cards – the 1952 Micky Mantle Topps Rookie, the 1986-87 Jordan Fleer Rookie, etc – will always increase in value. But value is always correlated with demand, and demand has all sorts of unique variables that drives it. Look at Roger Clemens: his image has taken a nose-dive over the past year and so has the demand for his collectibles. I don’t think that value will ever be completely restored in the collecting community, unless something unforseen happens.Then there’s the case of all of those cards I have sitting in my basement from 1988-2000. Most of them saw their peak in the early 90’s and then dropped off dramatically to be worth pennies on the dollar. There are so many people that have saved those cards thinking that they’ll be worth a lot some day. There will always be a far greater supply than there is demand, so I don’t see how these cards will ever have any real value no matter how long you hold on to them.

CS: It may be a bit of a stretch, but do you think there is any kind of correlation between the stock market as a whole and card values?

AM: Yes and no. I think that for the reasons I mentioned earlier there is certainly a correlation between the economy and the amount of money people spend on cards. So in that sense, values will probably always be higher in a good economy and lower in a bad one. But there are also a slew of factors that impact value that have nothing to do with the economy. In the last twenty years we’ve seen the introduction of Upper Deck, grading companies, autograph/relic cards, the internet, and of course eBay into the hobby. In my opinion, those things have had a lot more impact on card values than the economy.

CS: What would you say to the average collector that is worried that their collections are not worth the money that they’ve spent on it?

AM: I’d ask them to really think about why they collect. Almost no collector ever makes a profit from collecting sports cards. It’s a hobby. It’s almost impossible to buy and sell for profit (I say almost because I do think there are a few people out there who do it and do it well). But while most collectors love to sit around and talk about the “value” of their collection, it’s generally something that will never come into fruition. Most likely they’ll never sell. If they do sell, they’ll probably never realize that full value for their collection even in a good economy. So to most collectors I’d say focus on what you enjoy about collecting. Put less of an emphasis on the exact dollar amount of a card and more emphasis on the happiness you get from opening a pack, completing a set, interacting with the collecting community online or at shows, etc.

CS: What are some of the other factors that you feel affect card values?

AM: Most people don’t like it when I say this, but each and every card has it’s own unique value. What is the condition? Is it graded? If it’s autographed, how does the auto look? If it has a jersey in it, what part of the jersey is it? How hot is the player in question? How hot is the set from which the card comes from? Where are you trying to sell the card (hobby shop, eBay, forum, etc)? And of course, what is the overall state of the hobby and the economy? Those variables are constantly changing and usually different for every card that goes on sale. So usually you can figure out about what your card is worth, but you’ll never know for sure until you try to sell it and see what someone is willing to pay for it.

CS: Given some of the things that we’ve talked about, how does SportsLizard.com help collectors value their cards?

AM: First and foremost, I hope it helps with education. We have a

We’ve put a lot of work into getting it to work well, but it’s only one piece of the valuing puzzle. Right below the search box is a tutorial for how to value any collectible. That tutorial links to

CS: What else does SportsLizard.com offer collectors?

AM: In a grand sense, I hope we offer transparency. Collectors I think are frustrated with the Beckett’s and PSA’s of the world because they have their hand in too many conflicting businesses. We’re totally independent and I try to keep the reasons we do everything we do out in the open. More specifically, our afforementioned Pricing Tool is probably the most useful thing we offer collectors. We also just launched the

CS: Again, thank you very much for shedding some light on these issues. It’s really been informative.

AM: Thank you for the interview!

I have some thoughts about this subject and in the interest of not making this post longer than the 119th book of Psalms, I will post them in the following blog entry.  I invite you to read it, slam it, praise it, or give any other comments you feel.

PPR Mailbag: How good is Michael Main?

Posted by Jeremy on August 31, 2008 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

Can he become Texas' Main man?

Yes!  I received my first email asking a question requesting analysis of a prospect.  Today we look at young Texas Rangers fireballing prospect Michael Main.

Background: Main was one of the Rangers’ 1st round selections (24th overall) in the 2007 draft.  Last season Main pitched at two levels  (Rangers Arizona League and short-season Spokane) going 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 34 K’s in 28 IP.  This season Main began again in the Arizona League before advancing to full season Low-A Clinton in early July.  At Clinton, Main has gone 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 48 K’s in 44.1 IP  He has also held hitters to a .227 BA in his 9 starts with the Lumber Kings.

Strengths: Main has a very good fastball, pitching regularly between 93-97 MPH and his curveball is raw but promising off-speed pitch at 74-77 MPH.  He is a very good athlete and has a projectible frame that could comfortably add some bulk.  Main has a good feel for pitching and his decrease in walks allowed shows that he is improving the command of his fastball.

Weaknesses: Main is a flyball pitcher right now and he struggles at times keeping his fastball down in the zone.  Main could get touched up by more advanced hitters, especially if he struggles to develop his a third pitch.  He is working on a changeup, but it is in the developmental stages.

Market Analysis: Main has autographed 1st year cards in 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft, Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite Extra (#’ed/743) sets. The cards range from $7-10 each on Ebay right now which seems to be a good value for a player with Main’s upside.  Of course, with any young pitcher, you have to temper your expectations and know that most do not fulfill the promise that they display early in their careers.  I would like to see Main put on about 20-25 lbs to build strength and stamina, but I like his overall blend of athleticism and stuff.   

Texas has an exciting assortment of young pitchers in the lower levels of their system with the likes of Main, Blake Beavan, Kasey Kiker, Neftali Feliz, and Omar Poveda.  Look out for this club in the next couple of seasons!