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Your Daily Value #41

Posted by Jeremy on January 28, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2008 Donruss Threads GERARDO PARRA Auto #/999

Current eBay Price—$4.00-6.00

While flame throwing youngster Jarrod Parker sits atop the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hierarchy of elite prospects, this young Venezuelan OF quietly fills the #2 spot in just about every analyst’s list.  Parra handled the challenges of both High-A and AA ball last season admirably, hitting .286 with 6 HR 52 RBI and 28 SB.  Parra has the ability to play any OF position with superb range and a very strong arm and his solid plate discipline would be a welcome change of pace from the currently whiff-prone D’Backs lineup.

The question mark with Parra is his power numbers.  His bat speed is exceptional, but his swing trajectory is more condusive to producing line drives with moderate gap power.  However, Parra’s statistics from the Venezuelan Winter League offers substantial hope.  Gerrardo hit .329 with 7 HR 44 RBI and a league leading 20 doubles in 246 AB’s.  Given those numbers, it is conceivable that he could develop into a 10-15 HR hitter this next season.

Arizona’s roster is presently set with Justin Upton and Chris Young manning RF and CF respectively.  Eric Byrnes will get another shot at the starting job in LF after injuries ravaged his productivity last season and the fact that his contract pays him a guaranteed $21 million through 2010, it seems highly unlikely that he will be going anywhere.  This should put Parra at AAA Tuscon to start the season, but a solid spring and/or another Byrnes injury should allow for him to make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09.

2008 offers several 1st year autos of Gerardo Parra.  The Donruss Threads (#/999) and Bowman’s Signs of the Future are the least expensive at just $3-5 each.  There is a little more demand for his Donruss Elite Extra Auto ($6-8 each) due to the fact that it is numbered to just 421 copies.  I don’t think that Parra has the same potential to be a superstar like his future OF counterparts Upton and Young, but his comprehensive skill set should fit very well in the leadoff or #2 spot of this Arizona lineup.

Your Daily Value #40

Posted by Jeremy on January 27, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2003 Bowman Chrome Draft RICKIE WEEKS Auto

Current eBay Price—$10.00-13.00

.234 BA 14 HR 46 RBI 66 BB/115 K

On the surface those numbers are quite disappointing given Weeks’ exciting tools.  In fact, many collectors would likely consider his career to this point to be a lackluster departure from the lofty expectations heaped upon him after being selected with the 2nd overall pick in the 2003 draft. 

However, the sum of his skills defies the fruits of his performance.  Weeks has surprising strength and good speed that plays well on the basepaths as well as on defense.  He is quite effective at drawing walks and putting himself into position to score once he reaches base.  The problem is that he doesn’t reach base enough.  Weeks still swings and misses at too many pitches and is prone to long slumps at the plate.  He often gets pull happy and falls victim to offspeed pitches out of the strike zone.

Better days could lie ahead for Rickie though.  He is approaching that infamous age of 27 where players tend to enter the prime years of their careers.  The talent is there for Weeks to be a perennial 20 HR/30 SB hitter who scores 100+ runs per season.  He plays in a great hitter’s ballpark and the fact that the Brewers were able to keep their deadly lineup intact for the ‘09 season bodes well for him as well. 

The 2003 Bowman Chrome Draft set has historically garnered high demand from collectors as players like Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon, Nick Markakis, Delmon Young and others have graced the upper echelon of the hobby’s hotlists over the past few years.  Weeks may not ever experience the ceiling of his once stratospheric potential, but at just $10 or so per chrome auto, I am willing to bet that his cards are at a market low.

 

Your Daily Value #39

Posted by Jeremy on January 26, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects DEXTER FOWLER

Current eBay Value—$1.25-2.00

The time has come for the consensus #1 rated prospect in the Colorado Rockies organization to roam the spacious CF confines of Coors Field.  Fowler’s 2008 season was spent, in large part, at AA Tulsa where he put up his finest numbers to date hitting .335 with 9 HR 64 RBI 20 SB and 92 runs despite missing a month playing for Team USA in the Beijing Olympics. 

Fowler’s skill set places him in the elite class of prospects as there is no aspect of his game that deters his potential to be an MLB superstar.  He hits the ball well and has superb plate discipline, his plus-plus speed is well used on the basepaths as well as in CF where his range, instincts, and arm could make him a perennial Gold Glover.  The biggest question mark in his game right now is in determining his future power output.  He has never hit for double-digit HR’s in any season, but his 6-5 190 lb. frame has sinewy, fast twitch muscle strength that could easily facilitate future power growth without negatively affecting his speed or athleticism.  Fowler will be just 23 years old on opening day and is still a bit raw in some aspects of his game (he was a highly recruited basketball player in HS). 

Fowler’s debut cards were autographs #/603 in the 2004 Donruss Elite Extra set.  Today, those cards are still affordable at $28-32 each—roughly the same price as Brewers new ace Yovani Gallardo’s autos from the same set.  The 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects cards are much lower priced offerings and, though they are not 1st year cards, they are officially tabbed as his rookie cards.  Other fine 2006 cards of his can be found in Bowman Sterling ($2.50-4.00 each) and Bowman Originals ($0.75-1.25 each). 

The Rockies may opt to send Fowler to AAA for some more spring seasoning, but his ultimate ‘09 destination is surely Colorado.  Once he gets there, he should stay for a long and prosperous time.

 

Your Daily Value #38

Posted by Jeremy on under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

1997 Bowman Chrome JASON WERTH RC

Current eBay Price—$2.00-3.00

This late bloomer’s stock began to rise during the second half of last season in which he hit .279 with 13 HR 35 RBI and 12 SB, and his stellar performance in the World Series (8-18 HR 3 RBI 4 SB) could mean that Werth’s cards could experience a significant bump in market value in 2009.

Jayson began his career as a catcher in the Orioles organization before injuries and mediocre minor league performances bounced him to the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and finally, the Phillies.  Prior to 2008, Werth was strictly a platoon player whose right handed bat absolutely decimated LHP’s.  Last year was no exception, as Werth batted .303/.368/.652 with 16 HR in just 155 AB’s against southpaws.  Manager Charlie Manuel decided to give Werth more at bats against righthanders and, while his splits are less impressive, (.255/.360/. BA), there has been considerable improvement which may lead him to feel more confident in taking a more power condusive approach against RHP’s.  In addition to his power numbers, Werth has demonstrated that he is a highly aggressive and intelligent baserunner (20 of 21 SB attempts) and an athletically gifted defensive OF as well.

I think that we can expect even more from Werth this season IF he can stay healthy.  This has been a problem in the past and he has yet to prove that he can handle the rigors or a 162 game schedule.  If he does, it seems quite possible that Werth could bump his numbers up into the 30 HR/30 SB range while scoring 100+ runs at the top part of Philly’s high-octane offense. 

Werth’s best 1st year card is the 1997 Bowman Chrome card and, while it is not a rare card, it is one that is difficult to find in bulk quantities.  Autographed cards for Werth are not that plentiful either.  He has a 2005 SPX auto #/350 that seems like a good bargain at $6-8 and his 2007 UD Elements Autos can be had in the $7.50-10.00 range.

Your Daily Value #37

Posted by Jeremy on January 24, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2002 Bowman Chrome Draft SHIN-SOO CHOO

Current eBay Price—$1.00-1.50

This guy has been around forever, yet will be just 26 this season and is coming off of a blazing final two months of the ‘08 season which saw him hit .359 with 10 HR 41 RBI and 41 runs scored in just 44 games.  Choo was a career .300 hitter in the minor leagues but never got an opportunity to earn much playing time with the Mariners.  After the trade to Cleveland, Choo platooned for a couple of seasons until the Tribe made him a full time starter in mid-July.  Choo has the potential to hit at least 20 HR per season as a starter and there is also some potential for him to chalk up double digit SB totals.  His strong arm and decent range makes him a  good candidate for RF which bodes well for his future with the club as prospects Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley profile to be better fits in LF.

The 2002 Bowman Chrome Draft set was a landmark set for top prospects like Cole Hamels, Jeff Francouer, Zack Grienke and others.  While the set has cooled significantly over recent years.  Choo’s first year card could be a nice little gem that can be grabbed at a bargain basement price.  Keep an eye out for his various autographed cards as well.  Once he starts compiling good stats, the demand for all of his stuff should appreciate both here and overseas.

Your Daily Value #36

Posted by Jeremy on under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2005 Bowman Chrome Draft STEPHEN DREW Auto

Current eBay Price—$27.50-30.00

Remember when this card was selling for $75-100 each?  A sophomore slump in ‘07 and the emergence of several other autographs from this remarkable set (Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, etc..) muted the enthusiasm collectors felt for J.D. Drew’s younger brother’s cards despite his big turnaround in 2008.  Last season, Drew batted .291 with 21 HR 67 RBI 41 doubles and 91 runs scored.  At 26 years old, he will be entering the prime of his career and is, quite easily, one of the top 5 shortstops in all of baseball.  I think that it is reasonable to believe that Drew can become a 25-30 HR hitter who drives in 85-100 runs and scores 100 runs per season for the next several years.  The one area that I would like to see him address is his BB/K ratio.  He walks far too little for someone of his power potential—this seems to be a common thread throughout the Diamondbacks whiff-prone roster. 

There is a good deal of potential for Drew to establish himself as an All-Star this season, though Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes serve as formidable roadblocks.  From a value standpoint, players that drop in value after stellar debuts often have a difficult time regaining the market demand that their cards.  I think that Drew will buck the trend, he plays a prime time position in a hitter’s ballpark and there is plenty of reason to believe that the best years for this young player are ahead of him.

The Bowman Chrome Draft autos have always held up extremely well in the eBay market but there are also several other first year Drew cards from ‘05 that should be cheap acquisitions.  Most notably are his Bowman Sterling and Topps Chrome Update cards that can be found with regularity in the $2-4 range.  Also, there are plenty of serial #’ed RC’s and autos various Upper Deck products.  Get a few while they are cheap!

 


Your Daily Value #35

Posted by Jeremy on January 22, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2008 Razor Exclusive Signature BRETT WALLACE Auto

Current eBay Price—$13.00-16.00

Just today, it was reported that current Cardinals 3B Troy Glaus will undergo shoulder surgery that will effectively sideline him for at least 12 weeks.  This opens up a battle for the hot corner in which this hot prospect is surely going to be engaged during spring training.  The other options for 3B, Joe Mather and David Freese are not nearly as talented as Wallace but St. Louis may decide to not get the arbitration clock running on the former Sun Devil quite yet. 

Offensively, Wallace is ready to step into the middle of this lineup and be a front runner for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  He has hammered minor league pitching mercilessly at every stop that he has been challenged with, hitting .337 with 8 HR and 38 RBI at two stops before batting .309 with 6 HR and 24 RBI in limited time in the Arizona Fall League. 

Razor’s inaugural baseball card set has not quite garnered the same market value that the more established Bowman Chrome sets have, but I think that once some of these exclusive prospects start to distinguish themselves in professional ball, these cards will curry much more market demand.  Wallace could very well be the first one of these guys to get his shot in an MLB lineup.  Once he does, he will not disappoint.

Your Daily Value #34

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2008 Donruss Threads JUAN SILVERIO Auto #/999

Current eBay Price—$3.50-5.00

On the surface, it would appear that the 17 year old Dominican shortstop had a disappointing ‘08 season, hitting just .228 with 2 HR 35 RBI and 31 runs scored in 59 games at short season Bristol.  His 8 BB/56 K’s revealed an extreme amount of rawness in his approach at the plate.  Nevertheless, there is quite a bit of untapped talent yet to be discovered in this young man.  His 6-1 175 lb. frame has wiry strength right now, but should build more muscle down the road.  His quick bat and surprising strength reminds several scouts of Miguel Tejada.  He’s got good range and a strong arm at SS, but his 24 errors last season indicates that a change to 3B may be in order, especially if he develops Tejada-like bulk in the future. 

He’s far from a sure bet, but his offensive upside is much higher than the paltry prices of his 2008 Donruss Threads auto.  This is his only card to date and, if he develops as the White Sox hope he will, this card will be a big time bargain!


Your Daily Value #33

Posted by Jeremy on January 15, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2008 Donruss Elite Extra LORENZO CAIN Auto #/817

Current eBay Price—$4.00-6.00

The skills are starting to catch up with the tools for this guy.  Cain had his best season as a pro in ‘08 at three different levels, hitting .276 with 11 HR 60 RBI 25 SB 31 doubles and 71 runs scored.  Even more impressive was the fact that he continued to sting the ball in the Arizona Fall League belting 5 HR and stealing 4 bases in just 18 games.  The Brewers have seen a breakout with this guy coming for some time and many officials within the organization liken him to current Brewers RF Corey Hart. 

After his performance in the AFL, it seems reasonable that Cain will get an opportunity to start the season at AAA Nashville.  It will be important to monitor his performance there.  Despite his athletic abilities and projectibility, Cain still strikes out at an unacceptible rate (51 BB/115 K in 126 games).  Early struggles in the PCL may find him back down at AA Huntsville at some point.  If he continues to succeed, though, Cain could either take Mike Cameron’s place in CF after this coming season or replace Hart in RF should the club not offer him a long term contract. 

Cain has 1st year cards in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects set that sell for $1.00-1.50 each, but this is his first non-minor league autographed card.  His power output in the AFL gives me optimism that he can, indeed be a 20 HR/20 SB guy with the Brew Crew which should only enhance the value of this card in the future.

 

Your Daily Value #32

Posted by Jeremy on under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2005 Bowman Sterling COLBY RASMUS Jersey/Auto

Current eBay Price—$25.00-27.50

Ok, so this is a little bit spendier than many of the other Daily Value posts.  The fact remains, though, that Colby Rasmus is still one of the elite talents in all of baseball and, by the looks of things, he should break camp with the big club in April.  Ramus suffered through a difficult 2008 campaign which saw him struggle offensively in the early going and miss a good deal of time with various physical ailments.

When healthy, Rasmus is an elite 5-tool talent with a game very similar to Cleveland Indian All-Star Grady Sizemore.  Aside from his 30-30 potential, he plays Gold Glove caliber defense and has solid plate discipline.  The Cardinals currently have Skip Schmacher at the top of the CF depth chart which doesn’t seem like much, but Rasmus is not going to be given a clear path to a starting job.  Remember, it was the venerable Tony LaRussa that said that Rasmus didn’t earn a September call-up even though he was healthy enough to play.  I, for one, think that this and the fact that Rasmus did not play any winter ball will provide enough incentive for him to come into spring training with his game face on.  Rasmus is a notoriously slow starter so it will be interesting to see just how he plays this spring.

The 2005 Bowman Sterling set has featured some nice 1st year autographs over the last few seasons that have appreciated greatly in value as prospects become performers at the major league level.  Ryan Braun’s auto once sold for about $10 each before balooning to $100 during his rookie power surge.  Former Red Sox farmhandsJacoby Ellsbury,  Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie’s jersey autos increased to the $50-70 range as they began to bang out hits in Fenway. 

Other good low-priced values can be had in his 2005 Topps Chrome Update cards and Bowman Heritage.   He also has had an auto released in the 2008 Bowman Signs of the Future subset that sells in the $6.00-8.00 range.

Rasmus has the potential to experience the same kind of appreciation in value.  He plays for a well-respected franchise with an intensely dedicated fan base that extends far beyond the stae of Missouri.  Once he starts making a positive impact at the MLB level and once Baseball Tonight starts mentioning his name, these cards should take off. 

 

Warning: There is a chance of attrition for the young outfielder.  He has been banged up a few times over the last couple of seasons.  The sprained knee should be healthy by now, but you never can tell the nagging long term effects that an injury like that can have on the overall athleticism that Colby exudes. 

Keep your eyes open and fingers crossed!