Top 20 RHP’s for 2009 **Part 1**

Posted by Jeremy on March 17, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

Amidst all of my spring training reports, content writing for Hot-Prospects.net, and life outside the blogging world, I had put the Top 20 prospect reports on the back burner.  Well, we are back on track and this segment will feature the better half of the top 20 right handed pitching prospects for 2009.  These RHP’s are ones that are projected to be starters at this stage of their careers as we will handle the relievers in a separate post.  I hope you enjoy this immensely talented list!

1.) Tommy Hanson—Atlanta Braves

2009 Stats:

Strengths: Hanson’s fastball velocity jumped from 92-94 MPH to 96-98 MPH.  He locates it well and goes right after hitters.  His curveball is devastating with a hard 12 to 6 break that misses bats.  At 6-6, Hanson uses his height to throw downhill on hitters

Weaknesses: Very few.  Being a flyball pitcher, Hanson has the tendency to leave his heat up in the zone which, while permissable against minor league bats, could lead to trouble against the better hitters in the National League.

2009 Outlook: Hanson has pitched well enough this past fall and during the spring to earn a rotation spot in Atlanta.  He is a prime candidate for the 2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year award and he should anchor a young and talented Braves rotation for years to come.

2.) Neftali Feliz—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A fastball that can register 100 MPH on the radar gun.  Feliz is able to keep his heater down in the strike zone and has shown a marked improvement in controling his breaking ball.  Feliz rarely gets hit hard and is capable of inducing groundball outs when needed.

Weaknesses: Pitching in Texas is tough for any pitcher, especially young ones.  Feliz had a big breakout season in ‘08, but he is still extremely young and inexperienced.  While his changeup has made progress, Neftali still struggles to gain a good feel for it sometimes.

2009 Projection: The temptation of the Rangers to rush Feliz into MLB duty gets greater with every solid outing.  He has proven this spring to be the hands down best pitching prospect that Texas has and it is an inevitability that he will make his debut at some point in 2009, likely before the All-Star break.

3.) Rick Porcello—-Detroit Tigers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Porcello has the stuff and polish of an All-Star veteran pitcher.  His fastball sits between 93-96 MPH and hitters have a difficult time squaring up and driving it because of the late sinking movement.  His slider is a mid 80’s hammer as is his big breaking curveball, but his changeup is far and away the gem of the offspeed pitches with excellent late fade and velocity that can dip down to 70 MPH.  All of these are potential plus to plus-plus offerings and Porcello commands them all with excellence.  His arm action is top notch and his mechanics are flawless.

Weaknesses: 72 K’s in 125 IP is very uncustomary for someone with Porcello’s pure stuff.  Sometimes his slider tends to get slurvy and lacks the bite that his curveball possesses.

2009 Outlook: Porcello should start in AA, but his ultimate destination this next season is in Detroit’s rotation.  At just 20 years old, Porcello has the potential to be baseball’s best rookie pitcher and an all-star caliber ace for years to come.

4.) Trevor Cahill—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His low-90’s fastball has heavy sink that induces groundballs by the bunches.  He controls it well and uses it to set up hitters for his knee-buckling 70 MPH curveball.  Cahill has a good idea on how to set up hitters and locate pitches to all quadrants of the strike zone.

Weaknesses: His changeup is a little behind the other two pitches and his confidence in it wanes from time to time.  While his 6-3 frame is athletic and projectible, Cahill will likely not develop the same velocity on his fastball that pitchers like Hanson, Porcello, Feliz and others feature. 

2009 Projection: Cahill is on a fast track and the organizaiton has not ruled out the possibility that he could find his way into the A’s rotation on opening day.  More likely, Cahill will be shipped to AAA Sacramento and await the phone call that will surely come at some point summoning him to the big club.

5.) Jordan Zimmerman—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His 90-94 MPH fastball has good downward movement and saws off RH batters.  The curveball is a plus pitch with 12-6 break and swing and miss potential.  Zimmerman is a bulldog on the mound and is an agile athlete.

Weaknesses: The third pitch is a changeup and it is a little behind the fastball and curve.  He struggles sometimes with his command and has struggled in the past with heaping too many expectations on himself when he is on the mound.

2009 Outlook: Zimmerman is one of the Nationals’ workhorses in the rotation.  He should fit nicely in the #4 or 5 spot this season with the likelihood of moving into the #2 or 3 slot by 2010.

6.)  Chris Tillman—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His fastball gained a little bit of velocity, sitting comfortably at 92-95 MPH.  He uses his 6-5 frame to leverage it well and attack hitters.  His 11-5 tilt on his curveball is wicked and serves as his strikeout pitch. 

Weaknesses: His control improved last season, but he still walked nearly 4 hitter per 9 innings.  He is a flyball pitcher that sometimes has trouble with locating his fastball down in the zone on a consistent basis.

2009 Outlook: Tillman should make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09, but a trip to AAA Bowie is surely in the making.  The Orioles are amassing a weatlh of intriguing pitching talent in their farm system that could blossom quite soon.  When it does, the AL East will have another beast to contend with and Tillman may be leading the charge atop Baltimore’s young rotation.

7.) Tim Alderson—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: The things that stands out most is Alderson’s pinpoint control.  He is remarkably poised on the mound and has an uncannily high baseball IQ.  Oh, his stuff is pretty good too.  His fastball lives in the low 90’s, topping out at 95.  At 6-7, Alderson throws it downhill at hitters and should be able to generate groundball outs at a decent rate.  His curveball is even better.  It has a hard break and low 80’s velocity, but he has also shown an aptitude for manipulating the velocity and movement of it.

Weaknesses: Some scouts were concerned with the unnatural mechanics of his delivery, thinking that it would affect his durability in the future, but there has been no signs of wear yet.  He needs to gain some bulk on his lean frame and should continue to add depth to his changeup.

2009 Outlook: Alderson should rocket through the Giants system at a similar pace to superstar lefty Madison Bumgarner (more on him later).  Alderson should be ready to make his MLB debut in the second half of the 2010 season and, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain already in San Francisco’s rotation, Alderson along with Bumgarner should form the most formidable young rotation ever seen in the Bay Area.  Giants fans rejoice!

8.) Jarrod Parker—Arizona Diamondbacks

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Big time heat that can touch 97 MPH with ease.  His curveball is tops in the Diamondbacks system with late diving action and his slider is another effective pitch.  Parker has a high IQ on the mound and is a tireless worker.  His mechanics are clean and he has a good idea on how to get hitters out

Weaknesses: Parker has a smallish frame that has been durable thusfar, but runs the risk of wearing down as he ages.  His changeup is a “show me” pitch at this point and his fastball tends to get up in the zone (especially late in games) lowering the number of groundball outs and increasing the risk of surrendering XBH.

2009 Outlook: Parker did well in his first professional assignment and he should continue to prove his greatness at High-A and perhaps AA this season.  Parker has the ability to dominate hiters and should continue to rack up big strikeout numbers in ‘09 with a shot of making the D’Backs rotation in mid-late 2010.

9.) Michael Bowden—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Bowden has a bulldog mentality and breathes baseball.  He has excellent control of three pitches including a 90-92 MPH heater, a 12-6 breaking curveball and a changeup that he throws with deceptive arm speed. 

Weaknesses: Bowden is not overpowering like other pitchers on this list.  He doesn’t induce groundball outs well, which could kill him at Fenway.  His deceptive delivery needs to be cleaned up from the herky jerky movements that could lead to injuries down the road. 

2009 Outlook: In another organization, Bowden would be starting in the middle or end of the rotation.  In Boston, he is a AAA farmhand.  Expect him to start at Pawtucket until an injury or trade allows him an opportunity.  With Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson ahead of him, the latter may be his best bet.  Ultimately his ceiling is as a durable and effective #3 starter.  Given his high amount of success and polish, there is a good chance he will fulfill that promise.

10.) Jhoulys Chacin—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Weaknesses: Chacin’s stuff is not overpowering and, if it is not on, he can be hit hard.  Colorado finesse pitchers have a history of struggling in the light air of Coors Field as their stuff seemingly does not experience the same movement.  A pitch with lateral break (i.e. a slider) would be a welcome addition as Jhoulys’ pitches all have downward movement.  He is not that big and his slender build may struggle to sustain a workload suitable for a top of the rotation starter.

2009 Outlook: ‘09 will be a show me season at AA Tulsa.  It will be interesting to see how his stuff carries over to this challenging level.  Brandon Hynick, a similar finesse pitcher, struggled mightily last season after having an immensely successful season at High-A.  Chacin’s stuff is better, but a repeat performance from 2008’s breakout campaign will be a monumental challenge.

There’s the top 10….your thoughts are welcome.  I will get to work on the 11-20th ranked RHP’s and should have them completed within the next couple of days.  Remember that Friday March 20th is the final day for the PPR Contest.  Thusfar we have 8 excellent submissions and I am always looking for more!

Have a great day!

Your Daily Value #41

Posted by Jeremy on January 28, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2008 Donruss Threads GERARDO PARRA Auto #/999

Current eBay Price—$4.00-6.00

While flame throwing youngster Jarrod Parker sits atop the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hierarchy of elite prospects, this young Venezuelan OF quietly fills the #2 spot in just about every analyst’s list.  Parra handled the challenges of both High-A and AA ball last season admirably, hitting .286 with 6 HR 52 RBI and 28 SB.  Parra has the ability to play any OF position with superb range and a very strong arm and his solid plate discipline would be a welcome change of pace from the currently whiff-prone D’Backs lineup.

The question mark with Parra is his power numbers.  His bat speed is exceptional, but his swing trajectory is more condusive to producing line drives with moderate gap power.  However, Parra’s statistics from the Venezuelan Winter League offers substantial hope.  Gerrardo hit .329 with 7 HR 44 RBI and a league leading 20 doubles in 246 AB’s.  Given those numbers, it is conceivable that he could develop into a 10-15 HR hitter this next season.

Arizona’s roster is presently set with Justin Upton and Chris Young manning RF and CF respectively.  Eric Byrnes will get another shot at the starting job in LF after injuries ravaged his productivity last season and the fact that his contract pays him a guaranteed $21 million through 2010, it seems highly unlikely that he will be going anywhere.  This should put Parra at AAA Tuscon to start the season, but a solid spring and/or another Byrnes injury should allow for him to make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09.

2008 offers several 1st year autos of Gerardo Parra.  The Donruss Threads (#/999) and Bowman’s Signs of the Future are the least expensive at just $3-5 each.  There is a little more demand for his Donruss Elite Extra Auto ($6-8 each) due to the fact that it is numbered to just 421 copies.  I don’t think that Parra has the same potential to be a superstar like his future OF counterparts Upton and Young, but his comprehensive skill set should fit very well in the leadoff or #2 spot of this Arizona lineup.

Your Daily Value #36

Posted by Jeremy on January 24, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2005 Bowman Chrome Draft STEPHEN DREW Auto

Current eBay Price—$27.50-30.00

Remember when this card was selling for $75-100 each?  A sophomore slump in ‘07 and the emergence of several other autographs from this remarkable set (Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, etc..) muted the enthusiasm collectors felt for J.D. Drew’s younger brother’s cards despite his big turnaround in 2008.  Last season, Drew batted .291 with 21 HR 67 RBI 41 doubles and 91 runs scored.  At 26 years old, he will be entering the prime of his career and is, quite easily, one of the top 5 shortstops in all of baseball.  I think that it is reasonable to believe that Drew can become a 25-30 HR hitter who drives in 85-100 runs and scores 100 runs per season for the next several years.  The one area that I would like to see him address is his BB/K ratio.  He walks far too little for someone of his power potential—this seems to be a common thread throughout the Diamondbacks whiff-prone roster. 

There is a good deal of potential for Drew to establish himself as an All-Star this season, though Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes serve as formidable roadblocks.  From a value standpoint, players that drop in value after stellar debuts often have a difficult time regaining the market demand that their cards.  I think that Drew will buck the trend, he plays a prime time position in a hitter’s ballpark and there is plenty of reason to believe that the best years for this young player are ahead of him.

The Bowman Chrome Draft autos have always held up extremely well in the eBay market but there are also several other first year Drew cards from ‘05 that should be cheap acquisitions.  Most notably are his Bowman Sterling and Topps Chrome Update cards that can be found with regularity in the $2-4 range.  Also, there are plenty of serial #’ed RC’s and autos various Upper Deck products.  Get a few while they are cheap!

Breaking News: Adam Dunn traded to Diamondbacks

Posted by Jeremy on August 12, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis, Uncategorized | 2 Comments to Read

"The Human Air Conditioner"

The first major post-deadline deal has Cincinnati Reds OF Adam Dunn clearing waivers and heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Dallas Buck and two prospects to be named later.  This deal bodes well for Arizona who are desperate for a power bat to help fend off the red hot Dodgers.  Let’s look at the market impact on the parties involved in the trade.

Adam Dunn

• Dunn’s all or nothing approach at the plate has worn thin in Cincy, but I think that he will feel a little rejuvenation moving to a 1st place club.  Arizona’s dry air should provide a hitter-friendly environment similar to the launch pad at Cinergy.  I think that Dunn’s cards will see an initial bump in value (especially his ‘99 chrome RC’s) if he has an early power surge.  As for the post season, I am skeptical of the D’Backs’ ability to fend off the red-hot Dodgers and the wild card will certainly not come from the NL West. 

Chris Dickerson

Looks like his cousin Eric Dickerson

• Wait a minute, Dickerson was not part of the deal…Chris Dickerson, just promoted from AAA today, is the replacement for Mr. Dunn.  Dickerson, 26, has had a solid season at Louisville hitting ..287 with 11 HR 53 RBI and 26 SB.  He walks a bunch and strikes out a bunch, but at 6-3 225 he has intriguing strength and athleticism.  The Reds seem to be in full-fledged rebuilding mode and Dickerson should get ample opportunities to determine whether or not he is ready to be a major league regular.  Dickerson has autographed RC’s in the 2006 Bowman Prospects and Bowman Sterling.  Currently, these cards can be had $4-6 each which could prove to be a bargain in the short term.

Dallas Buck

• Currently, Buck’s only cards are in the 2008 Tristar products.  The former ‘06 3rd round pick was pitching better than his 1-4 record at Low-A South Bend would indicate.  Buck is coming off of Tommy John surgery and seems adept at inducing groundballs.  The question mark with Buck is obvioulsy health.  When healthy he can hit 92-94 on his fastball and he has a solid slider and change to go with it.  His makeup and competitiveness is very good.  Watch to see how he finishes this season and if he can stay healthy and successful in AA next year.  At 23, he is not the brightest or youngest of prospects, but he is not someone to be completely ignored either.

Stay tuned for the other two prospects.  If they are of note, I will write about them.  My hunch is that they will be lower-ceiling add-ins…This just in, Micah Owings one of the players to be named later going to the Reds.

Micah Owings

• Has struggled on the mound this season, earning a demotion to Tuscon earlier this week. A move to Cinergy doesn’t bode much better for him, but maybe it is what is needed to turn his season around.  Owings had a successful rookie season in ‘07 and started hot this season going 4-0 in April but has lost his last 6 decisions over the months of June and July.  If you haven’t sold Owings’ cards by now….sorry.