Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized | 
Happy November everyone! I took a wonderful walk with the family enjoying all of the stunning autumn colors that the Pacific Northwest has to offer! The AFL player of the day is Chris Johnson…not of the Tennessee Titans, but the 3B of the Houston Astros. Chris has played very well this fall after a nice breakout season at AA Corpus Christi. Johnson went 2-4 with his second HR, a triple, 2 RBI and 3 runs scored.
Player of the Day: CHRIS JOHNSON
Vying for Houston's Hot Corner in '09
Peoria Saguaros 11
- Ian Desmond—3-5 2B 3B 3R
- Chad Huffman—1-5 HR(2) 4 RBI
- Shane Robinson—1-3 R RBI BB SB(6)
- Jordan Danks—2-4 2B R BB
- Chris Thole—3-5 2R 2 RBI
- Sean Kazmar—1-4 2R BB
Phoenix Desert Dogs 3
- Chris Nelson—1-3 HR(3) 2 RBI
- Shane Tolleson—2-3
- Eric Young Jr.—1-4 R
- Jason Donaldson—1-3 BB
Mesa Solar Sox 3
- Quentin Berry—2-4
- Logan Morrison—3-3 RBI (.453 BA 16 RBI)
- Jeremy Slayden—1-4 2B R
- Matt Young—2-3 HR(2) RBI (.357 18 RBI)
- Jesse Estrada—5 IP 5H ER BB 5K (W)
Peoria Javelinas 2
- Jeff Marquez—4 IP 6H ER 4K
- Greg Halman—1-4 HR(2) RBI
- Chris Valaika—1-4 R
- J.T. Hall—1-3 BB RBI 3B
- Justin Turner—3-4 SB(2)
Scottsdale Scorpions 16
- Chris Johnson—2-4 HR(2) 2 RBI 3B 3R BB
- Josh Reddick—2-4 2R HR(2) 3 RBI BB
- Jamie Romak—2-4 2B RBI BB
- Shelby Ford—2-3 2R 3B SB(4)
- Kevin Frandsen—2-5 2B 2R 2 RBI BB SB(5)
- Drew Sutton—2-5 2R RBI (.449 15 RBI)
Surprise Rafters 6
- Wes Hodges—2-5 HR(5) 3 RBI (.393 20 RBI)
- Ivan DeJesus—2-5 2R
- Matt Wieters—1-4 2B BB
- Julio Borbon—1-5 R RBI
Tags: Arizona Fall League Daily Report, autographs, Bowman Chrome, bowman chrome draft, chris johnson, chris nelson, chris valaika, donruss, drew sutton, eric young jr., greg halman, ivan dejesus, jason donald, jeff marquez, jordan danks, josh donaldson, Josh Reddick, Julio Borbon, logan morrison, matt wieters, Minor League Baseball, minor league prospects, quentin berry, rookie cards, shane robinson, shelby ford, topps, upper deck, wes hodges
Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized |
Preemptively, if you have yet to read the interview with Adam McFarland, you can read it here. Now, my take on things…
I, like many of you, spent copious amounts of my pre-teen allowance dollars faithfully building my empire of 1988 Topps, 1990 Upper Deck and 1991 Donruss cards with the thought that one day these gems (remember Sam Horn? Gregg Jeffries? Kevin Maas?) would someday fund my college career and, perhaps, the down payment on my first house. Hindsight being 20/20, we collectors stand nearly 20 years later to see that the hobby has undergone profound changes. I could go into a 10,000 word diatribe detailing the evolution of the sports card industry–the birth of Beckett, the crazes of inserts, relics, and autos, Bowman Chrome Draft, the internet and Ebay. Changed as the industry is, there is one axiom that remains true today.
SPORTS CARDS ARE NOT INVESTMENTS!
Now, before some of you faithful readers and prospecting bretheren run for the hills or denounce me as a hypocrite, hear me out. The online sports card market is a fickle-minded speculative market. Nowhere is this more true than in the baseball rookie/prospect card market. Often in this sector, players often begin their professional careers in relative anonymity. Sure, there is a sizeable constituency of prospectors and “chromies” who paruse box scores, scouting reports, PECOTA and VORP charts in an effort to be bargain basement buyers, but the majority of the marketplace consists of a blend of casual fans who rely on the ESPN’s and local sports networks to introduce them to the latest and greatest sports stars.
Profits can be realized for those who can most effectively time the markets (i.e. the “buy low, sell high” principle) and can generate a steady rate of cash flow. I assure you, it is more difficult than it sounds. The more I discover about the online markets and prospecting in general, the more I realize that can never get a complete mastery of it.
There are just too many variables.
The initial step is to prospect players effectively, but even within that realm there are so many different considerations to make. Examples: How much do you invest in high risk, high reward players vs. low risk low reward players? Is it better to spend $50 on one bonafide star versus $5 apiece on 10 different sleepers? How much do extenuating circumstances play into a player’s unexpected success/failure? When should I cut bait on a guy? OK, OK, OK, you get the point.
Beyond prospecting is the none-too-pleasurable task of trying to efficiently work the market to garner the best prices and, hopefully, profit margin for your speculations. After all, what point is there in prospecting if you are not financially prospering from your purchases? Working the Ebay market is time consuming and tedious. Not only do you need to figure out what you are going to sell, you have to find the best way to market it effectively without incurring unnecessary costs (and ohhh does Ebay and Paypal love to stick those to you!). After all that, the tedium of sending out invoices, packaging and shipping materials, leaving feedback and chasing down deadbeat bidders are all waiting to suck away more of your precious time.
Additionally, if you don’t keep good financial records of your revenues and expenditures then your profit margin is sure to diminish as extranneous costs tend to slip through the cracks due to poor planning. We all can remember the super successful score we made on purchasing an item and then reselling it for an exponential profit, but we fail to also truthfully account for the five or six purchases we made in which we took losses. Keeping good records of both ends of the transaction (net cost and net revenue) will give you more bearing on what works and doesn’t work, which enhances your sense of conventional wisdom come time for your next speculative buy and sell.
Regarding the current state of the market, it is very apparent that prices for prospect cards are noticably down. As the resevoirs of our discretionary income evaporate, one of the first budget cuts that most of us make revolves around our personal hobbies. I am no global economist or MBA grad, but I do believe that the fundamentals of our economy are indeed strong and the recession that we are in will turn around. After all, if Warren Buffett is buying up truckloads of stock right now, I am going to assume that it is safe to buy some cardboard stock of my own while prices are down. This is the perfect time to buy baseball prospects. The market is down, the season is over and the prospect-laden products are hitting the hobby shelves.
That said, this is a time of discretionary spending. Ripping packs is a pant load of fun, but so is a night at the casino. In both cases, people who enter in with high expectations often come out of it feeling low. I can’t help but be captivated by the YouTube phenomenon of pack ripping. From what I have seen of it, the formula remains the same. The camera offers a first hand view of two hands deftly ripping the foil along its seam before rapidly thumbing through the 4-5 base cards in search of the “hit”. These are then cast aside once the hit is found or the next pack is retrieved. Wash…Rinse…Repeat. At the end of the box, a person has really a handful of “hits” though they are really excited about just one or two of them. What the camera doesn’t show is that same person putting the cards up on Ebay and earning back about half of what they paid for the box.
I worked in a baseball card shop for a summer and I witnessed firsthand the plight of the pack ripper. Incoming shipments of new inventory seemed to arrive at roughly the same time that many of the shop’s familiar faces had their pay days. These gents would then come in and rip box after box, spending hundred after hundred on whatever goody-loaded product topped the counter. It was exciting! Every once in a while, someone would pull something really cool out and proudly proclaim “Well, that one will pay for the box!” More often was the case that that same individual would finish their rip and feel dejected about their two or three non-descript jersey cards or autos that didn’t meet their expectations. Adding to the matter, these same individuals would then proceed to sell their base cards (a.k.a. “chaff”) back to the store owner at a heavily discounted price for future credit. The store owner then would inventory the cards on his web store and eventually sell them for profit.
Emerging from this tangent, I hope not to have offended those of you box busters who truly collect the products you rip. What I wish to communicate, is the compelling notion that calculated risk and well-researched speculation trumps emotion-driven pack ripping ecstacy for those in search of increasing their financial bottom lines.
So ends my stream of consciousness blathering about the prospect market. After the conclusions of the Arizona Fall League and Hawaiian Winter League, I am going to insert some random tips on buying, selling and prospecting effectively. I am always eager to share what has and has not worked for me. Moreover, I would love to hear points of view from all of you as well. Don’t hesitate to send me your questions and opinions on any prospecting matter. Together we enhance the quality of this outstanding community!
Posted by Jeremy on October 30, 2008 under Readers Mailbag |
I received an interesting email in my inbox today from my new friend Mike Johnson who is the owner of Cardscape.net, a budding site that serves as a resource for cataloging sports card collections. In the article, Mike interviews Adam McFarland who is the proprietor of sports card blog Sports Lizard, a high-quality independent card pricing resource that gives a different look to the market than other conventional price guides.
Introductions aside, here is the interview in its entirety…well done by both Mike and Adam!
Figuring out what your sports cards are actually worth can be a tricky process. Depending on what source you use (Beckett, Tuff Stuff, etc.), you may or may not get a really accurate or current value. But what happens when you mix in current economic conditions such as the state of the economy that we are now facing in the United States? CardScape.net decided to pick the brain of Adam McFarland, owner of SportsLizard.com, to get his thoughts on card values, the economy, and some of the other factors involved in sports card valuation.Pricing Tool that allows collectors to quickly and easily get an approximate value for a card or collectible. You type in what you’re interested in valuing and we spit out a number. It’s as simple as a Google search. It works by aggregating all of the items available for sale on eBay, SportsLizard, and a bunch of other sites, and gives you a number using our formula that also factors in our sales and search data.an article that I wrote that I feel explains a fool proof method for valuing any card or collectible. It’s the culmination of everything I’ve learned as a lifetime collector. Generally it takes less than five minutes and can be done using free tools available on the web.Collector’s Voice, a service that aggregates all of the articles from the best collecibles bloggers on the web into one common location. It allows collectors to discover new sources of card information so they don’t have to rely on what Beckett or Tuff Stuff feeds them. For anyone who sells on eBay or has a website, we allow them to syndicate their listings in our marketplace for free through our seller program. As a buyer, a quick search of our marketplace gives you results from our 20,000+ items, everything on eBay, and everything listed on Google Product Search. I think it’s the best way to quickly find the card or collectible you’re looking for.
CardScape: Hi Adam. First off, I’d like to thank you for taking time to share your knowledge and insight on this topic. So let’s get right to it. Does a down economy affect card values?
Adam McFarland: I think it has to. Cards are a commodoty item, an unnecessary expense, and when faced with the choice of paying the bills or buying a box of cards, the bills will always win. The hobby has really evolved to rely on the collector who spends their disposable income on cards. We’re talking hundreds of dollars a month, not just a few packs here and there. Those same collectors also drive the secondary market. The “hot” cards in the hobby, generally cost $50 or $100 or more. The demand is there because there’s someone willing to pay that much for a card pulled out of a pack. When those people diminish (as they likely will), values will definitely diminish as well. How much is anyone’s guess.
CS: During bad economic times, is there anything, in your opinion, that the sports card industry as a whole can do to help protect itself from declines in card values?
AM: It will be interesting to see how Topps, Upper Deck, Donruss, etc react to the economic downturn. Certainly they have a challenge at hand to avoid having sales dip. If big companies in the industry end up going down, it will hurt the hobby. More options are always better for the consumer.They spend a ton of money getting signatures and memorabilia to put into cards. That’s the most obvious thing I see getting trimmed back. Less autos and relics. Hopefully they can come up with creative substitutions that will keep collectors happy.
Personally, I think that times like this help drive innovation because it forces you to think outside the box. Maybe the result is less autos and relics like I just speculated. Maybe it’s a reduction in the number of sets released. Maybe it’s something I’m not thinking of. Either way, I think it’ll be an interesting and possibly exciting time for collectors who are open to change.
CS: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements: Card values are like stocks in the stock market. There are fluctuations in values, but over the long term, cards will increase in value.
AM: Not really. I believe that great cards – the 1952 Micky Mantle Topps Rookie, the 1986-87 Jordan Fleer Rookie, etc – will always increase in value. But value is always correlated with demand, and demand has all sorts of unique variables that drives it. Look at Roger Clemens: his image has taken a nose-dive over the past year and so has the demand for his collectibles. I don’t think that value will ever be completely restored in the collecting community, unless something unforseen happens.Then there’s the case of all of those cards I have sitting in my basement from 1988-2000. Most of them saw their peak in the early 90’s and then dropped off dramatically to be worth pennies on the dollar. There are so many people that have saved those cards thinking that they’ll be worth a lot some day. There will always be a far greater supply than there is demand, so I don’t see how these cards will ever have any real value no matter how long you hold on to them.
CS: It may be a bit of a stretch, but do you think there is any kind of correlation between the stock market as a whole and card values?
AM: Yes and no. I think that for the reasons I mentioned earlier there is certainly a correlation between the economy and the amount of money people spend on cards. So in that sense, values will probably always be higher in a good economy and lower in a bad one. But there are also a slew of factors that impact value that have nothing to do with the economy. In the last twenty years we’ve seen the introduction of Upper Deck, grading companies, autograph/relic cards, the internet, and of course eBay into the hobby. In my opinion, those things have had a lot more impact on card values than the economy.
CS: What would you say to the average collector that is worried that their collections are not worth the money that they’ve spent on it?
AM: I’d ask them to really think about why they collect. Almost no collector ever makes a profit from collecting sports cards. It’s a hobby. It’s almost impossible to buy and sell for profit (I say almost because I do think there are a few people out there who do it and do it well). But while most collectors love to sit around and talk about the “value” of their collection, it’s generally something that will never come into fruition. Most likely they’ll never sell. If they do sell, they’ll probably never realize that full value for their collection even in a good economy. So to most collectors I’d say focus on what you enjoy about collecting. Put less of an emphasis on the exact dollar amount of a card and more emphasis on the happiness you get from opening a pack, completing a set, interacting with the collecting community online or at shows, etc.
CS: What are some of the other factors that you feel affect card values?
AM: Most people don’t like it when I say this, but each and every card has it’s own unique value. What is the condition? Is it graded? If it’s autographed, how does the auto look? If it has a jersey in it, what part of the jersey is it? How hot is the player in question? How hot is the set from which the card comes from? Where are you trying to sell the card (hobby shop, eBay, forum, etc)? And of course, what is the overall state of the hobby and the economy? Those variables are constantly changing and usually different for every card that goes on sale. So usually you can figure out about what your card is worth, but you’ll never know for sure until you try to sell it and see what someone is willing to pay for it.
CS: Given some of the things that we’ve talked about, how does SportsLizard.com help collectors value their cards?
AM: First and foremost, I hope it helps with education. We have a
We’ve put a lot of work into getting it to work well, but it’s only one piece of the valuing puzzle. Right below the search box is a tutorial for how to value any collectible. That tutorial links to
CS: What else does SportsLizard.com offer collectors?
AM: In a grand sense, I hope we offer transparency. Collectors I think are frustrated with the Beckett’s and PSA’s of the world because they have their hand in too many conflicting businesses. We’re totally independent and I try to keep the reasons we do everything we do out in the open. More specifically, our afforementioned Pricing Tool is probably the most useful thing we offer collectors. We also just launched the
CS: Again, thank you very much for shedding some light on these issues. It’s really been informative.
AM: Thank you for the interview!
I have some thoughts about this subject and in the interest of not making this post longer than the 119th book of Psalms, I will post them in the following blog entry. I invite you to read it, slam it, praise it, or give any other comments you feel.
Posted by Jeremy on October 23, 2008 under Uncategorized |
Today’s offensive performer is one of the more unsung Peoria Javelinas, Cincinnati Reds OF prospect Sean Henry. Henry went 4-6 with a HR and 5 RBI.
Player of the Day: SEAN HENRY
Underrated Reds Farmhand
Peoria Javelinas 16
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Sean Henry—4-6 HR(1) 5 RBI 2R
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Carlos Triunfel—3-6 2R RBI SB(1)
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Rhyne Hughes—3-6 2 RBI R
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Desmond Jennings—3-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 3R 2B
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Drew Stubbs—3-6 2R 2 2B RBI SB(2)
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Chris Turner—4-6 3R 2B 2 RBI
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Lou Palmisano—1-4 2B R 2 RBI 2 BB
Phoenix Desert Dogs 5
Mesa Solar Sox 11
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Jason Donald—4-6 2B R
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Logan Morrison—5-5 2R RBI
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Scott Cousins—1-4 2R 2B 4 RBI BB SB(2)
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Quentin Berry—3-5 2R RBI SB(3)
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Luis Marte—4 IP 4H ER 8K (W)
Scottsdale Scorpions 3
Peoria Saguaros 8
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Ty Greene—2-4 HR(2) 3 RBI
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Leonard Davis—2-4 2R HR(1) RBI
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Cole Armstrong—2-4 R
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Kyle Blanks—2-4 RBI
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Gordon Beckham—1-4 R 2B
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Mike Baxter—1-2 2R HR(1) 3 RBI 2BB
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Bobby Parnell—4 IP H 5K (W)
Surprise Rafters 1
Tags: Add new tag, Adrian Cardenas, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, autographs, bobby parnell, Bowman Chrome, carlos triunfel, dan cortes, desmond jennings, drew stubbs, drew sutton, eric young jr., gordon beckham, jamie hoffmann, jason donald, justin smoak, kyle blanks, logan morrison, mark wagner, memorabilia, RC's, rhyne hughes, rookie cards, scott cousins, sean henry
Posted by Jeremy on October 17, 2008 under Uncategorized |
Wow, what a comeback by the Red Sox last night! Tonight’s AFL player of the day is a Boston prospect that we all thought would be a part of this pennant run—Clay Buchholz.
Player of the Day: CLAY BUCHHOLZ
Allowed just 1 Hit in 8 IP this fall (.045 BAA)
Scottsdale Scorpions 13
- Shelby Ford—3-5 HR(1) 3 RBI
- Emmannuel Burriss—4-6 3R 2 SB(6)
- Chris Petit—3-4 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R BB
- Chris Johnson—2-5 2B 3 RBI
- Mark Trumbo—2-5 2R 2 RBI
- Kevin Frandsen—2-5 2R
- Clay Buchholz—5 IP H BB 4K (W)
Surprise Rafters 1
- Joe Dickerson 2-3 3B R
- Wes Hodges—1-4
- Rowdy Hardy—2 IP 3H 2K
Peoria Saguaros 9
- Taylor Green—1-4 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R BB
- Juan Miranda—2-4 2B R
- Greg Halman—2-4 2B 3B 2R RBI SB(2)
- Rhyne Hughes—2-4 2 RBI 2B R
- Drew Stubbs—1-5 2R SB(1)
Mesa Solar Sox 8
- Tyler Flowers—2-4 HR(1) 2 RBI 3R BB
- Jason Donald—3-5 3R 2B SB(1)
- Jeremy Slayden—3-5 3 RBI 2B R
- Eric Young Jr.—3-5 RBI
- Van Pope—2-3 RBI BB
- Casper Wells—2-5
Peoria Saguaros
- Shawn Bowman—2-5 R
- Stefan Gartrell—2-4 2R RBI BB SB(1)
- Sean Kazmar—1-3 2R BB SB(1)
- Ian Desmond—2-3 R RBI BB
- Kyle Blanks—1-4 2B 2 RBI BB
- Brett Wallace—1-4 2B R BB
- Mike Eckstrom—2 IP 5K
Phoenix Desert Dogs
- Mike McKenry—2-4 2B 2 RBI
- Adrian Cardenas—1-3 2B
- Evan Frey—1-3 BB SB(1)
- Andrew Bailey—2 IP 4H 4K
Tags: Adrian Cardenas, andrew bailey, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, autographs, boston red sox, Bowman Chrome, brett wallace, chris johnson, Clay Buchholz, drew stubbs, emmannuel burriss, eric young, greg halman, ian desmond, jason donald, jeremy slayden, joe dickerson, juan miranda, kyle blanks, mark trumbo, RC's, rookie cards, shawn bowman, shelby ford, taylor green, topps, tyler flowers, wes hodges
Posted by Jeremy on October 9, 2008 under What I Bought |
Here’s a new segment that I have decided to implement into my blog. From time to time, I get a little bit of seed money to buy cards. While many buy the latest and greatest packs of turbo-loaded memorabilia-rich products, I buy…well…prospects. Here’s a little dose of what I have bought over the last couple of weeks as well as a little commentary about each purchase. Each final price has shipping included in the total.
1.) 2005 Topps Rookie Cup BRANDON SNYDER BCCG 10 Green Auto #62/99
Final Ebay Price---$22.00
- This is Snyder’s only 1st year auto and the Rookie Cup cards were not in circulation long. Snyder is one of my prime breakout candidates for the 2009 season and, while BCCG grading is a joke, it is still a good value for such a limited edition card.
2.) 2008 Bowman Chrome LARS ANDERSON Refractor Auto #280/500
Final Ebay Price---$49.31
- I think I scored on this one as this card typically sells for $70 or so. The seller had perfect but low feedback which tempered some buyers’ enthusiasm. As for me, if a person is Paypal insured, I feel a bit better about dealing with them. Lars is going to be a superstar and this card will easily surpass $100.
3.) 2008 Bowman Chrome JOSE MARTINEZ Refractor Lot (x3)
- Final Ebay Price—$12.30
- This picture also features Dominic Brown, which I just missed out on in a separate auction. 4 bucks a piece for an ultra-talented Juan Gonzalez clone who had some injury issues this season. Each card is numbered to 500 and I like his projectibility if he stays injury free. Still steamed about missing out on the Dominic Brown lot.
4.) 2008 Bowman Chrome BRANDON LAIRD X-Fractor #191/250
Final Ebay Price---$4.86
- Under five bucks for a Yankees power-hitting prospect who has good plate discipline, 25 HR power, major league bloodlines and a solid pro season (.273 23 HR 86 RBI) under his belt? I’ll take it!
Feel free to use the comments section to share your recent purchases, be they prospects, wax, memorabilia or other. It’s always fascinating to see what someone else is buying!
Waikiki Beach Boys 5
West Oahu Cane Fires 1
