A Glimpse of What I’ve Been Collecting

Posted by Jeremy on May 21, 2010 under Market Watch, Online Buying and Selling | Be the First to Comment

Now that we’ve gotten the “good to be back” formalities out of the way, I thought I’d give you a little peek at what I’ve been working on over the past 6 months.  It’s been a while since I have been writing and the following blurbs are my attempt to knock some of the rust off.

This offseason, I decided to get more serious about stocking my eBay store.  After all, paying $15 a month for a vacant storefront is not a sound investment strategy.  Going through my inventory at home, I quickly came to the realization that I was woefully disorganized.  I spent the better part of two days separating my cards by players and alphabetizing them.  I then pulled out the cards that I felt would stand a good chance to move on the market and created storefront auctions.  The great thing about eBay store auctions is that they run for 30 days (opposed to 3, 5, 7, or 10) and are cheaper to do than the customary fixed price auctions.  Also, items can be listed in bulk for no additional charge (a real boon for the prospector).   I built my storefront up to about 300 items and priced my items at about 10-15% lower than the median prices of other storefront items in hopes that they would attract more attention.  I also made the decision to offer free shipping on combined item shipments.

Things started to vanish out of my inventory quickly and I used the revenues to purchase more prospects.  I targeted players that I felt would have a good chance of making early impacts at the major league level.  Jason Heyward, Starlin Castro, Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, Michael Stanton, Jesus Montero, Julio Borbon, Brett Anderson, Desmond Jennings, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Reid Brignac, and others.  I snagged base and chrome bulk lots of each of these players with the intent of having a considerable quantity available if and when these fine young players made their marks at the major league level.

Since this time, players like Heyward, Santana, Castro, and Stanton have long since left my inventory, as their hot starts created a frenzy of market activity.  Others like Borbon, Carter, Taylor, and Jennings battled injuries or poor performances in the early going, and the demand for their RC’s is still a bit below what it should, and very well could, be.  So still they sit in the inventory, and I look for opportunities to add to the quantities every day.

The other buying strategy that I employed was to find good deals on short print, refractor, and serial numbered cards of MLB stars.  Players like Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Joe Mauer, and Evan Longoria are always in high demand and available in bulk quantities.  Being a prospect guy, I was a bit leery of risking too much capital on non-RC’s but soon found myself quite surprised with the rapid, and profitable, turn around on several of these players’ cards.  I’ll be tinkering with this a bit more to further optimize the process.

One area that I didn’t research as much this year was lower level (i.e. Low and High A) prospects.  The main impetus behind this notion is the simple fact that long term prospect holds tend to have a diminuative effect on cash flow.  I’ve covered this theory in past blog posts but, for those of you who are new to this site or to prospecting, I’ll go over it again.

The eBay market for first year cards is highly active upon the initial release of the products within which they reside.  For example, a can’t miss prospect in the latest Bowman Chrome set will command high dollar values as the masses of eager collectors snap them up for their collections.  As a prospector, this is a bad time to buy the particular product.  However, it is an excellent time to research the prospects within the set to gain a better feel for their skills, projectability, future impact potential, and the anticipated speed of their track to the major leagues.

Eventually new products come out and the hoards divert their attention elsewhere leaving you with the opportunity to buy.  If you’ve done your research and have monitored the progress of the prospects, you should have a pretty fair idea of who to buy and approximately how long you will have to wait for that player to don a major league uniform.  As you see from my list above, I hand picked several players that I anticipated would be making initial impacts this season and could be acquired in low-cost bulk quantities.  Once some of the players debuted, I quickly got an an assessment of the way that the market was trending and set my prices within that range.  As the players continued to perform, I gradually raised the prices of their cards until my inventory was completely empty.

Jason Heyward is a great case-in-point example of this method at work. 

Upon the arrival of the 2007 Bowman Draft and Chrome set, Heyward was lauded as one of the high demand prospects to be had within the product.  Chrome cards went regularly for $4-5 each as many collectors were, for good reason, intrigued by his considerable upside.  Heyward performed well at each stop of his two year minor league stint and remained an elite prospect, but his cards lost some of their early steam and dropped into the $2.50-3.00 range.  Base and gold cards from the set were even cheaper at just $1-2 each.

BUY, BUY, BUY!

Fast forward to spring training.  Heyward ripped through Grapefruit League pitching and prospectors took notice.  Soon his chrome cards pushed north of $5.00 on eBay and threatened to push into double digits.  I was tempted to cash in at this point and price my stuff to market.  I held, however, and waited for April to roll around.

Opening day.  A laser beam home run and multiple comparisons to baseball legends by the Baseball Tonight bunch pushed all of his cards into the stratosphere.  His ‘07 BCD cards shot into the $20-25 range almost overnight.  Even the base and gold cards were going for $8-12 each.  Within hours, I had my complete inventory up online, sold and shipped.

Now, a skeptic could read this and say “Duh, It doesn’t take a genius to know that Jason Heyward was going to be a star”.  Precisely.  While his cards were a bit more expensive than a deep sleeper toiling in Low-A ball, there was still enough room for a nice profitable growth and the risk of attrition was far less than casting my lot on a lesser known commodity.  Additionally, the short term investment was much more beneficial on my cash flow situation and allotted me an opportunity to roll my income into another short term investment.

As for those short term investments….we’ll see what happens in the next few months.

Use the comments section below to further the conversation and thanks for checking in!

7/27 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on July 28, 2009 under Minor League Ball today, Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Former Oakland A’s farm hand and current San Diego Padres OF prospect Dan Putnam hit his 14th HR of the season and drove in three runs in a three hit outing.  Putnam has been solid over his last 10 games batting .361 with 3 HR 17 RBI and 7 doubles.  At 26 years old, time is ticking for Putnam to make an impact at the major league level.  He’s proven to be a consistent power hitter over the past few seasons but has never been quite good enough to stand out above his peers.  That shouldn’t change at San Diego.  He’ll likely earn a look in September but the Padres will likely be much more interested in getting a better look at fellow Portland teammate Chad Huffman.

Today’s top player is a former MLB flash in the pan Florida Marlins 2B propect Tony Abreu.  The ex-Dodger had a perfect day at the plate yesterday, going 5-5 with his 6th HR, 3 RBI and 3 doubles.  Abreu has bounced back nicely with the Marlins after missing the entire 2008 season, hitting .348 with 6 HR 29 RBI 11 doubles and 20 runs scored in just 27 games with Albuquerque.  Abreu’s first year cards in various 2007 sets experienced an uptick of popularity after his solid debut with the Dodgers in ‘07 and there could be an opportunity for the cards to be, likely to a lesser degree, relevant again.  The Marlins have already switched former 2B Chris Coghlan to the outfield and it has long been rumored that the future of Dan Uggla as a member of the Marlins is not a long one.  Abreu is still just 24 years old and his switch hitting bat has proven to be a consistent one with decent gap power and the ability to hit for a high average.  The market for Abreu’s 2007 products is deflated, making this the perfect opportunity to add a low serial #’ed rookie card to your portfolio for less than $5.

AAA Player of the Day—TONY ABREU

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Cole Gillespie—1-2 Hr(9) 2 RBI BB SB(11)
• Jon Jay—2-5 R SB(17)
• Tyler Greene—3-5 HR(7) 2 RBI
• Allen Craig—2-3 HR(15) 2 RBI 2R
• Mark Hamilton—4-5 2 HR(10) 4 RBI
• Alejandro De Aza—3-6 3B RBI 2R
• Cameron Maybin—1-3 2B R 3 RBI 3 BB
• John Raynor—1-2 HR(4) RBI 2 BB 3R
• Austin Jackson—2-5 2B RBI
• Cliff Pennington—2-4 2B 2R
• Aaron Cunningham—2-4 2 2B 2R 2 RBI BB
• Brett Wallace—2-4 2 2B R RBI
• Tony Abreu—5-5 3 2B HR(6) 3 RBI
• Alcides Escobar—1-4 2R SB(36)
• Joaquin Arias—3-4 3R HR(5) RBI
• Ian Desmond—2-4 2B 2 RBI
• Brandon Snyder—1-4 2 RBI
• Justin Turner—2-4 2B RBI
• Reid Brignac—1-3 2B R RBI 2 BB SB(5)
• Rhyne Hughes—3-3 2 2B R BB
• Cole Armstrong—2-4 HR(8) 2 RBI 2B
• Chad Huffman—2-5 HR(14) 3 RBI 2R
• Dan Putnam—3-4 2B HR(14) 3 RBI

Pitching:

• Jeff Manship—8 IP 7H ER 3 BB 3K
• Fabio Castro—7 IP 2H 2 BB 10K W (7-5)
• Shairon Martis—7 IP 5H BB 3K W (3-1)

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

Posted by Jeremy on May 2, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

The chronic shoulder soreness of Travis Hafner added with a red hot month of April at AAA Columbus has ushered in the long-awaited Matt LaPorta era.  The Cleveland Indians will call up LaPorta on Saturday and, given Hafner’s health over the past couple of seasons, it is quite conceivable that the Indians’ top prospect  will be playing full time either as a DH or outfielder. 

Here’s what I wrote about the former Florida Gator for Hot-Prospects.net on 11/13/08….

LaPorta got off to a red hot start last season as the centerpiece of AA Huntsville’s star-studded lineup.  LaPorta belted 20 HR in just 84 games while hitting .288.  LaPorta then was traded to the Cleveland Indians in the C.C. Sabathia trade where he struggled in a brief stint before playing in Beijing for the bronze medal winning U.S. Olympic Baseball Team.  LaPorta has light tower power that could translate into 30-40 HR per season at the major league level. He has a keen eye at the plate and works counts well. Numerous coaches and players have given him credit for having an unparalleled work ethic as well.  Defensively and athletically, LaPorta is limited.  His arm strength and foot speed will relegate him to LF or 1B and he will never be a threat on the basepaths.  It is LaPorta’s bat that commands respect, though, and his power is real.

2009 Projection: LaPorta is playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason and has struggled offensively.  Expect him to start the ‘09 season at AAA Buffalo as the Indians are eager to get him into their lineup at some point in 2009.  Watch to see if LaPorta can get his considerable offensive potential back on track early.  If so, his 2007 Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite Extra Autographs could experience a considerable bump in market value.

UPDATE: LaPorta has definitely gotten things back on track at Columbus hitting .333 with 5 HR 14 RBI and 22 runs scored in just 21 games.  He has good plate discipline to compliment his 30+ HR power walking 9 times versus 10 K’s this season.  With no really solid AL Rookie of the Year performances to date, there is still an ample opportunity for the Indians’ top prospect to distinguish himself as the top rookie hitter in the junior circuit.

Current eBay Values for LaPorta’s Cards:

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft—$3.50-5.00
• 2007 Bowman Sterling Auto—$40.00-45.00
• 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto (#/593)—$38.00-42.00
• 2008 Bowman Chrome Auto—$40.00-45.00

As you can see, expectations are high for LaPorta to succeed at the major league level but is there room for growth in his autographed cards?  I would say yes, but with the caveat that spending nearly $50 on an autograph makes it much more risky to generate a nice return on investment than a lower priced card does.  I’ll cover this method of prospecting in a future article (I promise).

To me, the best buys for an elite prospect like Matt LaPorta can be found in the Bowman base and Chrome cards, preferrably from the ‘07 set.  Once LaPorta starts heating up and sending balls into the seats at Jacobs Field, several of the more casual baseball card fans will start hitting the eBay market hard in hopes of adding the young slugger to their collections.  This level of collector tends to seek out the cheaper cards, but tends to pay close to, and in some cases above, full book value for these cards.  Snagging a bulk lot of base cards at $1.00-1.50 apiece could turn into exponential profits within a short period of time.

Here are some current Matt LaPorta auctions on eBay