10/28 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 29, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Read the First Comment

Yesterday’s games saw Atlanta Braves 1B prospect Freddie Freeman continue his hot streak with three more hits.  Oakland A’s prospects Corey Brown and Jemile Weeks had nice outings as Brown rapped three more RBI’s and Weeks doubled twice and drove in two runs.  San Diego Padres prospect Lance Zawadzki put a black mark on Aaron Crow’s professional debut by taking him deep, though Crow looked pretty sharp allowing just two runs on three hits in his four innings. 

In Mesa, Andrew Cashner logged four no-hit innings, walking two and striking out four for his first win of the season.  Boston Red Sox SS/P prospect Casey Kelly had his best day with the bat, doubling, tripling and driving in four runs.

Today’s top prospect is the hands down best player in Arizona this fall, Grant Desme.  The A’s slugger remarkably tallied two more HR’s to raise his league leading total to 10.  Desme is now just four behind Brandon Wood’s AFL record and his .469 BA and 22 RBI leads the league right now.  Desme quietly had a big season for the A’s at Low-A Kane County and High-A Stockton, hitting .288 with 31 HR 89 RBI 40 SB and 98 runs scored.  Desme’s biggest culpability right now is his contact issues as he struck out 148 time in 131 games.  To date, Desme has fanned 14 times in 12 games, but his eight walks and 23 hits in that span makes his aggressive approach at the plate tolerable, if not encouraging.  Desme doesn’t have any first year cards right now, but when they do arrive (‘09 Bowman Draft?) they should command a solid market right out of the gate. 

AFL Player of the Day—GRANT DESME

Other Notable AFL Performances:

  Mesa Solar Sox 12

• Bryan Petersen—2-5 HR(2) 2 RBI 2R
• Starlin Castro—2-5 RBI 2R
• Hank Conger—2-4 2B R RBI BB
• David Cooper—2-4 RBI R
• Casey Kelly—2-4 2B 3B 4 RBI R BB
• Josh Vitters—2-5 RBI R
• Andrew Cashner—4 IP 0H 2 BB 4K  W (1-2)

  Scottsdale Scorpions 5

• Brandon Crawford—2-4 HR(1) RBI
• William Susdorf—1-2 HR(2) 2 RBI 2  BB
• Buster Posey—1-3 2R BB

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 11

• Grant Desme—3-4 2 HR(1) 4 RBI 4R BB
• Brandon Waring—3-5 3B RBI 2R
• Corey Brown—2-5 3 RBI
• Jemile Weeks—3-3 2 2B 2 RBI R

  Peoria Javelinas 6

• Trayvon Robinson—2-5 RBI R
• Casper Wells—1-4 HR(3) 3 RBI
• Justin Sellers—3-4 2B R
• Jordan Danks—1-3 R RBI BB

  Peoria Saguaros 9

• Lance Zawadzki—2-4 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R BB
• Jon Gaston—1-5 3B R 2 RBI
• Yonder Alonso—2-4 2R 2 RBI
• Freddie Freeman—3-4 2B R RBI BB
• Brandon Hicks—2-4 3B RBI BB
• Steven Garrison—3 IP 3H 2 BB K W (1-1)

  Surprise Rafters 0

• Reese Havens—2-4
• Aaron Crow—4 IP 3H 2 ER BB 2K L (0-1)

10/22 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 23, 2009 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Stephen Strasburg’s second outing went much differently than his first as three Peoria Javelinas took him deep and he was touched up for eight runs in his 2.2 innings of work.  Talented as Strasburg is, he is not immune from the steep learning curve that major league baseball imposes on virtually every young hurler.  In other action, Oakland A’s OF prospect Grant Desme continues his power onslaught, hitting his 6th dinger and fellow outfield mate Corey Brown chimed in with his 3rd.  Mike Stanton racked up three more hits, as did Cole Gillespie, Pedro Ciriaco, and Chris Marrero.

Today’s top prospect is Detroit Tigers OF prospect Casper Wells.  Yesterday’s grand slame off of Strasburg proved to be the punctuation point on the #1 overall pick’s outing yesterday.  The former 14th rounder out of Towson University had a fair, but not spectacular year at AA Erie, hitting .260 with 15 HR and 41 RBI.  He’s bunched up with a glut of low to mid upside outfielders within the system and is in dire need of a standout AFL showing to elevate his status within the organization.  So far so good.  Wells currently hitting at a .476 clip with 2 HR 11 RBI.  If he can continue his torrid pace, the organization may be more apt to give more credence to his ‘08 numbers (.269 27 HR 79 RBI 25 SB) as to their expectations of Wells going forward.

AFL Player of the Day—CASPER WELLS

Other Notable AFL Peformances:

  Peoria Javelinas 9

• Casper Wells—2-5 HR(2) 5 RBI BB
• Russ Mitchell—1-4 HR(4) 2 RBI
• C.J. Retherford—2-4 HR(1) RBI 2R
• Jordan Danks—2-4 2R
• Taylor Green—1-2 R 2 BB

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 6

• Chris Marrero—3-5 2B HR(2) 2 RBI 2R
• Grant Desme—1-4 HR(6) 2 RBI
• Corey Brown—3-5 HR(3) RBI 3B

  Surprise Rafters 3

• Mitch Moreland—2-4 HR(2) RBI 2R
• Ike Davis—1-3 2B BB
• Blake Wood—3 IP 4H BB 2K
• Tanner Scheppers—2 IP 2K

  Peoria Saguaros 2

• Matt McBride—1-3 HR(1) 2 RBI BB
• Lance Zawadzki—2-3 2 BB
• Josh Judy—1.2 IP BB 4K

  Scottsdale Scorpions 11

• Cole Gillespie—3-5 2B 2R BB SB(2)
• Brandon Allen—2-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 2B
• Thomas Neal—2-5 2B 2R
• Darin Holcomb—2-4 3R BB
• Pedro Ciriaco—3-6 2B
• Domonic Brown—2-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Hector Gomez—2-5 2 RBI
• Brian Friday—2-5 2B R RBI

  Mesa Solar Sox 1

• Rene Tosoni—2-4 R 3B
• Mike Stanton—3-4
• Andrew Cashner—3.2 IP 3H Er K L (0-2)

10/21 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 22, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

I was looking through some of my past posts and saw that the scoreboard section of each entry is a little mushed together, making it difficult to discern the final scores of each game.  I will try to do better going forward.

As for tonight’s action, the Phoenix Desert Dogs put up 17 runs tonight to provide us with a wealth of offensive performances to choose from.  Grant Desme blasted two more homeruns to up his league leading total to five and Josh Bell increased his league leading batting average to .600 on the strenght of a four hit day that included his first AFL dinger, a double and three RBI.  In other games, Jordan Danks went yard for the second consecutive day, Yonder Alonso and Colin Curtis hit their second HR’s of the fall and Daryl Jones homered, scored twice, walked three times and stole two more bases to increase his total to six on the young season.

We go back to the Desert Dogs for our top performer of the day.  Baltimore Orioles 1B prospect and former 1st round pick Brandon Snyder belted HR’s number 2 and 3 earlier today, driving in seven runs and scoring three times.  Those of you who have followed this blog for some time have heard me on several occasions laud the offensive potential of the 23 year old power hitter.  Snyder’s ‘09 campaign got off to a rousing start as he batted .343 with 10 HR 45 RBI and 19 doubles in just 54 games at AA Bowie.  A promotion to AAA Norfolk saw him struggle to maintain his batting average and power numbers (.248 2 HR 43 RBI 18 doubles in 73 games).   The cool down performance at Norfolk diminished the market for his cards somewhat, making his various autos in 2005 Rookie Cup and various 2006 Bowman products nice bargain basement buys at $5-10 each. 

The Orioles have some decisions to make in the off season as the club has clearly opted to shift to a more youth oriented lineup.  Emerging stars like Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and a plethora of pitching talent make Baltimore an exciting up and coming A.L. East powerhouse that could contend with the other beasts in the east within the next two to three seasons.  Snyder’s torrid start to the ‘09 AFL season (.481 3 HR 12 RBI 10 runs) should increase the Orioles’ confidence in making him the front runner for the position in 2010.  Former Indians prospect Michael Aubrey should factor into the competition as well, but Snyder’s power upside and youth gives him a decided upper hand.  As much as I like Snyder, I do think he will struggle some in his first couple of months in a major league lineup.  He has a history of starting slowly at new levels before taking off and putting up better numbers.  Regardless, he’s a future 20-25 HR hitter who could drive in close to 100 runs in the middle of a young and talented Baltimore Orioles lineup.  Once that happens, the days of $5 Bowman Chrome and Sterling autos will be a thing of the distant past.

AFL Player of the Day—BRANDON SNYDER

Other Notable AFL Performances:

  Mesa Solar Sox 5

• Josh Vitters—3-5 2B R 2 RBI
• Bryan Petersen—2-5 2B R RBI
• Wellington Castillo—3-4 BB
• Greg Burns—1-2 3B R RBI 2 BB
• Tommy Mendoza—4 IP 3H ER 3K W (1-1)

  Scottsdale Scorpions 4

• Buster Posey—2-4 2B 2 RBI R
• Thomas Neal—1-4 R SB(3)

  Surprise Rafters 10

• Colin Curtis—3-5 HR(2) 2 RBI 2R 3B
• Mitch Moreland—1-5 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R
• Ike Davis—3-4 2B 2 RBI BB
• Trey Henley—2-4 2B 2r HR(1) 3 RBI BB
• Bryan Anderson—2-4 3B 2 RbI
• Daryl Jones—1-1 2R HR(1) RBI 3 BB 2 SB(6)
• Carlos Gutierrez—3.2 IP 2H 2 BB K W(2-0)

  Peoria Saguaros 9

• Chris Heisey—4-5 2 2B 3B 2R 2 RBI
• Lance Zawardzki—2-5 3B 2R RBI
• Yonder Alonso—1-4 HR(2) 3 RBI
• Josh Rodriguez—1-3 HR(1) RBI SB(1)
• Jon Gaston—2-4 3B R

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 17

• Brandon Snyder—4-5 2 HR(3) 7 RBI 2B 3R SB(1)
• Grant Desme—2-3 2 HR(5) 3 RBI
• Josh Bell—4-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 2R 2B
• Corey Brown—1-4 HR(1) RBI BB
• Matt Angle—3-5 2R RBI BB
• Jemile Weeks—1-5 3R RBI BB SB(2)

  Peoria Javelinas 4

• Russ Mitchell—3-3 2B 2R RBI
• Jordan Danks—1-4 HR(2) RBI
• C.J. Retherford—2-4 2 RBI

10/20 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 21, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Yesterday’s AFL results are littered with four hit performances from the likes of Bryan Petersen, Starlin Castro, Jon Lucroy, and Carlos Rivero, not to mention HR’s by Grant Desme (#3), Brad Emaus, Chris Parmelee, Matt Dominguez,  and Russ Mitchell (#3).  Today’s top performer is L.A. Dodgers OF prospect Andrew Lambo.  The 21 year old blasted his second HR of the fall as part of a three hit day, driving in four runs and scoring three times.  The former 2007 4th round pick has had a scalding start to his AFL campaign, hitting .478 with 2 HR 9 RBI and 6 runs scored in his six outings.  The Dodgers are by no means extending Ramirez’s contract beyond the 2010 season and will be in hoc for a significant portion of his deferred contract for several seasons beyond ‘10.  Lambo is not quite ready for a starting OF role with the Dodgers yet, but his start to the AFL season looks like it could catapult him into a significant role in the latter months of next season.  Lambo, at his peak, has the same offensive capabilities of current Dodgers RF and first time All-Star Andre Ethier.  The market for Lambo’s 2008 Bowman Chrome autos is pretty undervalued right now as many of them can be fetched for $6-8 each and refractors (#/500) for about $10 a pop.  Given his upside as future 25-30 HR guy, this seems to be an excellent opportunity to snag a few at single digit prices.

AFL Player of the Day—ANDREW LAMBO

Other AFL Performances

Peoria Javelinas 14

• Lorenzo Cain—2-6 2B R 2 RBI
• Jordan Danks—1-4 2B 2R RBI 2 BB
• Scott Sizemore—1-3 2R 3 BB
• Andrew Lambo—3-6 HR(2) 4 RBI 3R
• Russ Mitchell–1-2 HR(3) 2 RBI BB
• Jon Lucroy—4-4 HR(1) RBI 3R BB
• Zach Braddock—2 IP H 3K

Mesa Solar Sox 10

• Bryan Petersen—4-5 2B 3R
• Starlin Castro—4-5 2R RBI
• Ryan Kalish—3-4 2B 3R 2 RBI BB SB(1)
• Chris Parmelee—1-4 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Matt Dominguez—2-5 2B HR(1) RBI

Peoria Saguaros 11

• Chris Heisey—3-4 2b 2R 3 RBI BB
• Brandon Hicks—2-2 2B 2R 2 BB SB(1)
• Cedric Hunter—2-5 2B R RBI
• Carlos Rivero—4-5 2 2B 2 RBI R
• Jose Vallejo—2-45 2R SB(1)

Phoenix Desert Dogs 8

• Matt Angle—3-5 2B R RBI
• David Espinosa—2-5 R RBI
• Chris Marrero—2-5 2B RBI R
• Grant Desme—2-5 HR(3) 3 RBI
• Brad Emaus—1-5 HR(1) 2 RBI

Scottdale Scorpions 7

• Jose Tabata—3-5 2 3B 2 RBI 2R
• Brandon Crawford—1-3 2B R 2 BB
• William Susdorf—2-3 2R RBI SB(1)
• Hector Gomez—2-4 2B R 2 RBI

Surprise Rafters 3

• Ike Davis—2-4 2 2B R
• Jeff Bianchi—1-4 2B 2 RBI

10/19 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 20, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | 2 Comments to Read

Domonic Brown hit his second HR of the season while the potent middle of Phoenix’s lineup (Josh Bell, Brandon Snyder, and Grant Desme) continue to punish the ball with multi hit games.  Brandon Erbe looked good in his AFL debut (2 IP 2K) and Reds OF prospect Chris Heisey hit his second HR.

Today’s top prospect is red hot Detroit Tigers 2B prospect Scott Sizemore.  Already three HR’s into his season, Sizemore logged in with a 3-4 day at the plate with two doubles and four RBI.  Sizemore now has a league leading 9 RBI and is hitting .375 through his first four games.  The 24 year old infielder had a breakout season splitting time between AA Erie and AAA Toledo, hitting .308 with 17 HR 66 RBI 21 SB 88 runs and 39 doubles.  Sizemore’s AFL season should factor greatly in shaping Detroit’s offseason plans when it comes to re-signing free agent Placido Polonco.   Sizemore’s ability to step into the role would allow the Tigers to save $5-6 next season to allocate to other need areas.  Sizemore has only one rookie card, an autograph in the 2007 Bowman Heritage set, to date.  His hot start in the AFL has garnered some attention for the card as it currently sits at $7-9 and is only intermittently listed on eBay at this time.

AFL Player of the Day—SCOTT SIZEMORE

Other AFL Performances:

  Scottsdale Scorpions 7

• Pedro Ciriaco Jr.—2-5 2B R RBI
• Domonic Brown—2-5 HR(2) RBI
• Brandon Allen—2-5 2B 2 RBI
• Thomas Neal—1-2 2B R 2 RBI 2 BB SB(2)
• Joe Martinez—3 IP 3H ER BB 3K W (1-0)

  Surprise Rafters 3

• Ruben Tejada—2-4 2 2B
• MItch Moreland—2-4 2B R
• Jeff Bianchi—2-4 BB

  Peoria Javelinas 8

• Scott Sizemore—3-4 2 2B R 4 RBI
• Dayan Viciedo—1-5 2 RBI
• Jordan Danks—1-1 HR(1) RBI BB
• Lorenzo Cain—0-3 3R 2 BB SB(2)
• Scot Drucker—3 IP 3H K W (1-0)

  Mesa Solar Sox 1

• Chris Parmelee—3-4 2 2B R
• Ryan Kalish—2-4 RBI

  Phoenix Desert Dogs  6

• Josh Bell—4-5 2B 3B 3R RBI
• Grant Desme—3-5 2B R
• Brandon Snyder—2-5 2B R
• Adam Loewen—1-4 HR(1) 3 RBI BB
• Brandon Erbe—2 IP 2K
• Mickey Storey—2 IP H 4K
• Drew Storen—IP H 2K

  Peoria Saguaros  2

• Nick Weglarz—3-4 2B
• Jason Castro—1-3 R BB
• Chris Heisey—1-4 HR(2) RBI

10/17 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 19, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Saturday saw Brandon Snyder, Corey Brown, Mike Moustakas and C.J. Retherford put another multi-hit game under their belts while bright catching prospects Wilin Rosario (Rockies) and Wellington Castillo (Cubs) joined Mike Stanton in hitting their first HR’s of the young season.  Today’s top prospect award was a toss up between Oakland A’s pitching prospect James Simmons (3 IP 2H 2 BB 2K W) and Seattle Mariners OF/1B prospect Joe Dunigan (3-5 HR 2 RBI 2B 2R).  On the strength of my heavy M’s bias, we’ll give the award to Dunigan.

The former Oklahoma Sooner had a monsterous breakout season with the High Desert Mavericks of the California League, hitting .294 with 30 HR 104 RBI 20 SB and 84 runs scored.  At 6-1 and 215 lb., Dunigan is extremely strong and has a good amount of athleticism to boot.  His arm is ideal for right field and his left handed uppercut swing is a good fit at Safeco Field.  The California League, especially the thin air of High Desert, has a well earned reputation of inflating hitters’ numbers only to have them fall flat on their faces at AA.  Dunigan’s plate discipline (43 BB/129 K) makes him a prime candidate to fall culprit to this same attrition.  Keep an eye on his AFL numbers as well as the first couple of months of his AA debut to see if he can prove me wrong.  Dunigan doesn’t have any cards to speak of yet, and once they do appear (2009 Bowman Draft?), they should be “buyer beware” investments until he proves he can handle AA.

AFL Player of the Day—JOE DUNIGAN

Other AFL Performances:

  Phoenix Desert Dogs  11

• Brandon Snyder—2-4 2R 2 RBI BB
• Chris Marrero—2-4 R BB
• Corey Brown—3-5 R 2 RBI
• A.J. Jimenez—1-4 HR(1) 2 RBI BB
• Matt Angle—2-5 2B 2R
• James Simmons—3 IP 2H 2 BB 2K W(1-0)

  Surprise Rafters 2

• Mike Moustakas—2-4 R SB(1)
• Jeff Bianchi—3-4 RBI
• Mitch Moreland—2-4 R

  Peoria Javelinas 9

• Jordan Danks—2-5 2 RBI
• C.J. Retherford—3-5 2 RBI 3B R
• Joe Dunigan—3-5 HR(1) 2 RBI 2B 2R
• Taylor Green—2-3 R BB

  Scottsdale Scorpions 5

• Pedro Ciraco Jr.—3-5 2 RBI 2B 2R BB
• Domonic Brown—2-4 RBI 2 BB
• Wilin Rosario—1-5 HR(1) RBI
• Daniel Moskos—2 IP H 3K

  Mesa Solar Sox  6

• Mike Stanton—2-4 HR(1) RBI
• Steve Singleton—2-5 HR(1) 3 RBI
• Wellington Castillo—1-3 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Casey Kelly—1-2 R 2 BB

  Peoria Saguaros 4

• Chris Heisey—2-3 HR(1) RBI 2B 2R SB(1)
• Matt McBride—2-5 RBI R SB(1)

10/16 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Russell Mitchell homered and drove in four RBI for the second consectutive day and Scott Sizemore hit his third HR of the young season.  Andrew Lambo collected four more hits and Michael Stanton’s three hits and third stolen base continues to give evidence that he’s developing into a more well rounded offensive player.  Orioles 3B prospect Josh Bell rapped three hits and drove in three runs, but it was show stopping teammate Stephen Strasburg who takes home top honors with a solid AFL debut, pitching 3.1 shut out innings, allowing two hits, one walk while striking out two for his first AFL win.

AFL Player of the Day—STEPHEN STRASBURG

Other AFL Performances:

  Peoria Javelinas  13

• Russ Mitchell—2-5 HR(2) 4 RBI 2B 2R
• Scott Sizemore—1-4 HR(3) 2 RBI 2R BB
• Dayan Viciedo—2-5 2B 3R RBI
• Casper Wells—3-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 3R
• Andrew Lambo—4-5 2B 3B RBI
• Jordan Danks—2-5 2B 3R

  Peoria Saguaros 3

• Cedric Hunter—2-2
• Zack Cozart—1-4 2B R
• Jon Gaston—1-3 R RBI BB
• Chris Heisey—2-4 RBI BB
• Chia-Jen Lo—2 IP H 4K

  Surprise Rafters 7

• Brandon Laird—1-5 HR(1) 3 RBI
• Dan Delasco—3-5 R
• Marcus Lemon—1-3 R RBI BB SB(1)
• Ruben Tejeda—1-3 RBI 2 BB SB(2)
• Tanner Scheppers—2 IP H BB 2K

  Mesa Solar Sox  3

• Michael Stanton—3-4 RBI SB(3)
• Starlin Castro—3-4 SB(1)
• Ryan Mount—1-3 RBI BB

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 7

• Brandon Snyder—2-3 3R BB
• Josh Bell—3-4 2B 3 RBI R
• Grant Desme—2-4 HR(2) RBI
• Brad Emaus—2-4 RBI SB(1)
• Stephen Strasburg—3.1 IP 2H BB 2K W (1-0)

  Scottsdale Scorpions 4

• Jose Tabata—2-5 RBI
• Buster Posey—1-3 RBI BB
• Brandon Allen—1-3 RBI BB
• William Susdorf—1-4 HR(1) RBI
• Thomas Neal—1-4 R SB(1)

$100 Growth Project Update–A Large Lot Purchase

Posted by Jeremy on October 14, 2009 under $100 Growth Project | 4 Comments to Read

Remember this undertaking?  For those of you who don’t or are new readers to the blog, I decided to take $100 of my hard earned dollars and invest them in various purchases and sales to see just how much I could net over one year’s time. 

At my last count, I had banked $158.46 and had a 2007 Bowman Chrome Chris Coghlan Blue Refractor Auto RC in my inventory.  The Coghlan auto, on the heels of his NL ROY performance has sold for $50 on a “BUY IT NOW” in my eBay store, netting me $43.42, or $13.42 profit. 

I was spot on with my analysis of Coghlan as a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia.  In fact, the Marlins’ rookie exceeded the ‘08 AL MVP’s numbers despite being in the minor leagues for the first month and a half of the season.  Given this, I think I undersold on the Coghlan card and would not be surprised to see this push past the $100 range following his christening as the 2009 NL ROY.  That said, my initial goal when purchasing this card was to sell at $50 and I did accomplish that.

That brings the total earnings to $201.88, or more than 100% profit over the initial investment.  Not bad considering my passive attention to the project. 

The Purchase…

Immediately following the sale, I won an auction for a mega sized 350 count lot of 2007 Bowman Draft Michael Taylor RC’s.  Shipped, the total cost for the lot was $95.55 or a mere 27 cents per card.  I immediately put the entire lot of them into my eBay store at the price of $1.00 each.  Given Taylor’s potential to earn a spot on the Phillies’ roster next season and long term prospects as a future star, I figure that the ‘07 RC’s will be spectacular low end buys this coming spring.  I received the lot yesterday, and to my pleasant surprise found that the seller had included an additional 15 Taylor RC’s upping the total to 365.

Current Cash On Hand: $106.33

Current Inventory: (365) 2007 Bowman Draft MICHAEL TAYLOR RC’s

Was this a good purchase?  Was it not?  Make your voice heard in the comments section below.  Stay tuned for more purchases and sales in the $100 Growth Project and for more quality prospect analysis!

Arizona Fall League: Mesa Solar Sox Roster and Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | 2 Comments to Read

This is the first of a six part series that will examine the rosters of each Arizona Fall League team.  The Arizona Fall League is annually renown for showcasing the elite talent of each major league organization and often serves as a spring board for talented youngsters to carve out opportunities with their big league clubs in the following MLB season.  For the savvy prospect investor, the AFL offers a prolonged look at the development of key prospects during the baseball offseason and shapes the buying and selling strategies to be employed throughout the ensuing season.

Our first look is at the Mesa Solar Sox which boasts talents from the Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, L.A. Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, and Florida Marlins.  Enjoy!

Top 5 Players to Watch:

1.) Michael Stanton

• It was a tale of two seasons for the king-sized Florida Marlins slugger who split time between High-A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this season.  With Jupiter, Stanton hit .294 with 12 HR 39 RBI and a solid 28 BB/45 K ratio in 50 games.  His promotion to Jacksonville, however, exploited some still raw strike zone judgement (31 BB/99 K in 79 games) that plagued him throught 2008.  As a resut, Stanton mustered a .231 BA against Southern League hurlers, though his 16 HR and 53 RBI were demonstrative indicators of the power to come.  The market for Stanton’s various ‘08 RC autos is still quite active but the costs have diminshed by about 25% since his hot spring numbers.  His cheapest autos can be found in the 2008 Razor series (#/1199) for a shade under $10 each.  His more popular autos in the Bowman Chrome Drat set command $30-35 each.

AFL Outlook:

• Stanton has drawn rave reviews from members within the Marlins organization for his work ethic and cerebral approach to the game.  His struggles with the strike zone are issues stemming strictly from a lack of experience and an expedient ascent through the system.  Like other power hitters, he will always rack up high K totals, but I think that he will find a way to be more selective at the plate which should raise his BB totals as well as his batting average in future years.  If his AFL season is a successful one, Stanton should figure heavily in the Marlins’ plans at some point in 2010.

2.) Josh Vitters

• The top prospect of the Chicago Cubs played like one in his first full professional season, hitting .316 with 15 HR 46 RBI and 42 runs scored in his 70 games at Low-A Peoria.  That performance earned him a promotion to the Cubs’ High-A affiliate Dayton where his numbers dropped considerably (.238 3 HR 22 RBI in 50 games).  Like Stanton, plate discipline was the main culprit of Vitters’ struggles as he earned just 12 walks in 458 AB. 

AFL Outlook:

• Vitters is at least a year to year and a half away from making his major league debut, so this AFL experience is really just an opportunity for Josh to show the Cubs’ brass where he is development-wise.  Current Cubbies 3B Aramis Ramirez is under contract through next season and has a $14.6 million player option that he can utilize for 2011.  This should give Vitters just enough time to develop into a player that can effectively replace Ramirez’s production once he hits the free agent market.  Vitters has autographed cards in various 2007 and 2008 products that all seem to fall in the $10-20 range.  For someone who has promise to be the face of the Cubs franchise within the next two to three seasons, his cards seem like rock solid investments.

3.) Casey Kelly

• Is he a pitcher or an infielder?  Judging by last year’s numbers, his arm seems to be ahead of his bat.  Propelled by a 6-1 record and 1.12 ERA, the 19 year old Sarasota native rocketed his way to High-A Salem and continued to post excellent numbers (3.09 ERA 7 BB/29 K in 35 IP).  Kelly, as per the Red Sox plans, stopped pitching in the second half of the season and played at SS, where his bat (.222 3 HR 16 RBI 16 BB/49 K) failed to muster the same heat has his electric right arm.

AFL Outlook:

• On a roster drunk with top tier shortstops (Starlin Castro, Jose Iglesias), it seems that Kelly’s initial AFL experience will be limited and a primary source of extra offseason work against elite talent.  My gut tells me that Kelly will eventually develop as a pitcher, forgoing the offensive side of his game.  There are several other fine SS (Iglesias, Yamiaco Navarro, Argenis Diaz, Oscar Tejeda) within the system.

4.) Starlin Castro

• The 19 year old Chicago Cubs farmhand had an excellent debut season shooting up to AA Tennessee, hitting .299 with 3 HR 49 RBI and 28 SB over two levels.  The youngest participant in the Arizona Fall League, Castro has shown sound strike zone discipline (29 BB/53 K) and the ability to hit for future power (32 XBH). 

AFL Outlook:

• Castro’s AFL performance could go a long way towards determining just where the Cubs will start him for the 2010 season.  My hunch is that he will go back to AA Tennessee with the intent of earning a promotion to AAA Iowa within the first couple of months.  Current Cubbies SS, Ryan Theriot, had another solid season with both the glove and the bat, which could mean that Castro’s first MLB action may be at 2B instead of SS.  That could happen at the tail end of the 2010 season.  Castro’s first year cards have just been issued in the 2009 Bowman Chrome set.  The base chrome cards are currently trading at $1.25-2.00 each and his refractors can be found for $4-5 per card.  Vitters may be the face of the franchise, but Castro should be playing next to him and hitting in front of him for several future seasons.

5.) Ryan Kalish

• Kalish bounced back after a ho-hum 2008 season to put up big numbers at his High-A and AA stops this year, hitting .279 with 18 HR 77 RBI 21 SB and 84 runs scored.  The increase of his power output did not come at the expense of his plate disciline, which at a rate of 68 BB/107 K in 141 games, is still quite acceptable.

AFL Outlook:

• After being outsted by the L.A. Angels in a three game sweep, the Red Sox have some glaring offseason questions to answer.  Current LF Jason Bay is an unrestricted free agent and J.D. Drew is a prolonged stint on the DL (35 or more days) away from allowing the Red Sox the ability to opt out of the rest of his contract.  Josh Reddick, who received a couple of brief stints with the Sox this year, is at the front of the list of potential replacements, but Kalish may offer a more comprehensive skill set than Reddick has.  Long term, both are quite talented enough to flank Jacoby Ellsbury as a formidable Fenway trifecta for seasons to come.  The current eBay market for Kalish’s various 2008 first year autos between $8-12, which seems like a bargain considering the future potential that Kalish posesses.

Others to watch:

• Luis Exposito–Red Sox top catching prospect highly successful @ AA (.337 3 HR 12 RBI in 23 games)
• Ryan Mount—Disappointing ‘09 season but now top 2B with departure of Sean Rodriguez
• Hank Conger–1st fully healthy season at AA rendered good results (.295 11 HR 68 RBI 55 BB/68 K)
• Andrew Cashner—Cubs ‘08 1st rounder w/ power arm showed he can start (24 starts 2.60 ERA)
• Rene Tosoni—Twins OF w/ solid all around skill set may be playing for a change of scenery
• Chris Parmelee—’06 1st rounder developing plate discipline and light tower power (16 HR 27 2B)
• Jose Iglesias—Cuban FA SS with dynamic glove and emerging offensive potential for Red Sox
• Matt Dominguez–A disappointing 2009 season may be due more to being rushed than overall talent
• David Cooper–Unlike Dominguez, his extremely good ‘08 may be the aberration

8/11 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 12, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Allen Craig really likes to hit in the thin air of Colorado Springs as he belted three HR’s during a double header to raise his tally to 21 on the season.  Craig has been as hot as any hitter in the minor leagues since the All Star break, hitting .446 with 13 HR 30 RBI and 27 runs scored in just 28 games.  Craig continues to play in the outfield which surprises me in the wake of the Brett Wallace trade.  He’s never been a bad fielder at 3B, but the organization seems to find him a better fit in left field.  Regardless of where he’s playing, Craig has been the best hitter in the Cardinals’ organization this season and should earn a big league call up at some point this year.  His only first year cards are in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft set and his singles can still be had in lots for less than a buck apiece.

Gaby Sanchez was a darkhorse N.L. ROY candidate by some baseball pundits on the heels of his fine 2008 season at AA Carolina.  Instead, he like fellow Marlins teammate Cameron Maybin, struggled to earn playing time with the big club and was demoted to New Orleans.  Last night, Sanchez went 3-5 with his 12th and 13th dingers, driving in five runs and scoring four times.  Sanchez has been hot during the month of August, hitting .325 with 4 HR 7 RBI and a killer 10 BB/3K ratio.  Sanchez is in a tough spot.  Logan Morrison has made a successful return from a broken wrist and is driving the ball with authority in AA.  He’s the heir to the first base job in Miami, leaving Sanchez either to switch to a new position or continue to toil at AAA.  At his best, Gaby is a well disciplined hitter with decent power to the gaps and above average defensive skills that could help him carve out a starting job with a big league club someday.

Today’s top prospect is one of Cleveland’s newest additions, RHP Carlos Carrasco.  After back to back rocky starts with Columbus, Carrasco tossed eight innings of four hit, one run ball, striking out 10 hitters for his 9th victory of the season.  Carrasco has the stuff to be a frontline pitcher at the major league level, but his inability to establish consistency and pitch with confidence at times was maddening to the Phillies franchise.  Perhaps the move to Cleveland will be just what Carlos needs to rediscover his potential as an MLB stopper.  Surely this outing does wonders for his chances to crack the Indians’ rotation at some point this season.  Carrasco’s 2008 Bowman Sterling Jsy/Autos are currently trading at $4-6 each on eBay and seem like a solid low risk buy for someone who has slipped off of many collectors’ radars.

AAA Player of the Day—CARLOS CARRASCO

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Matt Tuiasosopo—1-4 2B 2 RBI R
• Mike Carp—1-4 R 2 RBI BB
• Adam Moore—4-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Tony Abreu—1-5 HR(10) RBI
• Gaby Sanchez—3-5 2 HR(13) 5 RBI 4R BB
• John Raynor—2-6 2R RBI SB(16)
• Brett Hayes—2-4 R 3 RBI BB
• Travis Buck—3-4 2B 3 RBI SB(3)
• Allen Craig—2-3 2 HR(20) 3 RBI 2R (Game 1)…..1-3 HR(21) RBI (Game 2)
• Jarret Hoffpauir—2-3 2B 3B RBI R
• Eric Young Jr.—3-5 RBI (Game 1)…..1-2 R BB SB(55) (Game 2)
• Brandon Allen—3-4 2B 2R RBI BB
• Cole Gillespie—2-5 2B 2 RBI
• Chris Johnson—2-3 2B HR(10) RBI
• Juan Miranda—1-5 2B R 2 RBI
• Travis Snider—2-4 RBI
• Drew Stubbs—2-4 RBI
• John Mayberry Jr.—2-3 R SB(6)
• Lou Marson—3-4 R RBI
• Wes Hodges—2-4 2B R
• Justin Maxwell—2-3 R SB(28)
• Brent Clevlen—2-3 HR(15) RBI
• Aaron Bates—2-4 2B R

Pitching:

• Scott Elbert—4 IP 2H 3 BB 3K
• Travis Wood—6 IP 6H ER 3 BB K W (12-4)
• Carlos Carrasco—8 IP 4H ER 10K W (9-9)