7/19 High-A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on July 20, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Atlanta Braves OF prospect Cody Johnson reclaimed the minor league HR lead by blasting his 24th yesterday, driving in two and scoring twice.  He also walked and stole his 9th base of the season.  Power is definitively his calling card, but it is nice to see him drawing more walks as of late and stealing bases.  The more that Johnson can distinguish himself as a multi-dimensional hitter, the more bullish I become about his major league future.  Johnson has already exceeded his walk totals from last season, drawing his 47th yesterday, and his K rate has slowed significantly during the month of July (13 BB/19 K).  On the flip side, Cody has posted his lowest batting average splits this month, hitting just .207 with 4 HR and 15 RBI.  I am not too concerned with this as he may be making mechanical adjustments and altering his aggressive approach.  I look at this as a positive sign for long term success.  The power potential is there for Johnson to be a perennial 30-40 HR hitter at the big league level and his overall potential reminds me of towering slugger and whiff machine Adam Dunn.  His walk rates are behind Dunn’s at this point, but at just 20 years old, there is plenty of time for Johnson to boost his totals.  Johnson’s first year autos have experienced bi-polar fluctuations over the past couple of seasons, rising to $20+ in 2007 and dropping to $8-10 during ‘08.  Currently, they are residing somewhere in the middle at $7-9 for his Bowman Sterling autos and $9-12 for his Bowman Chrome Draft autos.  I think that AA ball is going to be a huge litmus test for the former AFLAC All-American and we’ll likely have to wait until next season to see the effects of that.  As for this season, 30 HR 90 RBI and about 150 K’s seems to be solid locks.

Roger Kieschnick had four knocks yesterday including his 19th HR, four RBI and three runs scored.  Kieschnick’s big day snapped a 2-18 dry spell and raised his average to .296 and his RBI total to 74 on the season.  Similar to Johnson, Roger seems to be altering his approach at the plate to cut back on his K’s as his BB/K ratio for the month of July has been quite balanced (8 BB/10 K) but his batting average (.237) is more than 40 points lower than his previous season low.  I am much more an advocate of a balanced approach at the plate.  Strikeouts are not a major detractor from overall performance if the power numbers and OBP remains high.  Hitters like Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena and others have put up monster seasons despite big K numbers as they are able to also draw 80-100+ walks per season.  Kieschnick’s first year autos are quite affordable right now with prices for his Donruss Elite Extra, Razor Threads, and Playoff Rookie Ticket autos selling for $7-10 each.  I think Kieschnick’s power numbers will carry forward, but I am skeptical of his batting average totals.  The athletic outfielder’s flirtation with the .300 mark has more to do with the fact that he is currently in the California Leauge and amidst a talented lineup.  Perhaps his recent struggles can be attributed in part to the fact that Buster Posey has moved on to AAA. 

Today’s top prospect is another California League offensive benefactor, San Diego Padres 3B prospect James Darnell.  The former South Carolina Gamecock belted HR’s 12 and 13 yesterday, driving in four runs.  Darnell started slowly after his late June promotion, but has caught fire over the last 10 games, hitting .324 with four HR, eight RBI and seven runs scored.  Darnell’s plate discipline is extraordinary as he has a positive 68 BB/61 K ratio.  The Padres have a pleasant dilemma at the hot corner as both Darnell and AA star Logan Forsythe are both having stellar seasons.  Defensively, Forsythe is clearly superior as his excellent range, arm, and hands trump Darnell’s decent skills.  Darnell will likely have to move to the outfield where there is a plethora of talented prospects to compete with.  I think he’s a player that should play at both AA and AAA next year with a shot at earning a 2010 September debut, but it will be interesting to see exactly where he ends up as a pro.  His first year autos from the 2008 Donruss Elite Extra, Playoff Contenders, and Razor sets are all quite affordable right now at $3-8 each and serve as excellent sleeper buys for next season.

High-A Player of the Day—JAMES DARNELL

 

Other Notable Performances:

Hitting:

• Michael Bianucci—2-4 HR(16) RBI 2B 2R
• Roger Kieschnick—4-5 HR(19) 4 RBI 3R
• Conor Gillaspie—3-5 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Thomas Neal—2-6 2 2B 2R
• Darren Ford—2-4 2B R RBI
• C.J. Ziegler—5-5 2B 2R RBI
• Tyson Gillies—2-4 2B
• Joe Dunigan—1-3 HR(22) 2 RBI
• Jake Rife—3-4 2B 2 RBI
• Jay Brossman—1-3 2R 2B 2 RBI BB
• Jemile Weeks—3-5 2 2B R
• Grant Desme—2-4 2B 3R RBI BB
• Jermaine Mitchell—3-4 2 RBI R SB(10)
• Jon Gaston—2-4 HR(23) 2 RBI 2R
• James Shuck—2-5 3R
• Brian Barnes—1-3 3R RBI 2 BB
• Koby Clemens—3-5 2B 3 RBI
• James Darnell—3-5 2 HR(13) 3 RBI 2R
• Matt Clark—2-5 2 HR(15) 2 RBI 2R
• Christan Lara—3-5 HR(5) 2 RBI SB(11)
• Pedro Baez—2-4 2B R SB(5)
• Radamez Nazario—3-4 2B 2R RBI
• Pedro Florimon Jr.—2-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Derrick Robinson—2-5 R RBI SB(46)
• Johnny Giavotella—2-5 RBI 2 SB(16)
• Eric Huber—1-4 2B 4 RBI
• Alex Presley—3-5 2B 2R
• Cody Johnson—1-3 HR(24) 2 RBI 2R BB SB(9)
• Dominic Brown—2-3 2 RBI BB
• Arlon Quiroz—3-4 R SB(15)
• Derrick Mitchell—2-4 2B HR(7) RBI
• Brad McElroy—3-5 2R SB(4)
• John Tolisano—1-3 R RBI 2 BB
• Manny Rodriguez—2-4 HR(5) 4 RBI BB
• Logan Schafer—3-5 2B 2R
• Lee Haydel—1-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Damon Sublett—2-5 2B BB
• Austin Romine—1-4 2B R RBI BB
• Chris Swauger—2-2 HR(9) 3 RBI BB

 

Pitching:

• Nick Additon—6.1 IP 7H 4 ER 2 BB 8K
• Darren Byrd—6 IP 4H ER 3K W (2-3)
• Jeff Mandel—7 IP 5H Er BB 6K W (8-4)

$100 Well Spent #3

Posted by Jeremy on September 9, 2008 under $100 Well Spent | 2 Comments to Read

Last time I focused on upcoming potential September callups, this time I will dedicate my hypothetical C-note to impact RC’s during the pennant stretch.  Every year, certain RC’s pop up out of the wood work to become brief denizens on collector hot lists.  I recall 1986 when an ordinary Mets 3B, Ray Knight, whose greatest previous conquest was being the spouse of LPGA legend Nancy Lopez, became the toast of the Big Apple and a brief hobby sensation with an MVP performance against the Buckner-cursed Boston Red Sox. 

As of today, 11 teams (5 A.L. & 6 N.L.) are in the thick of the playoff race.  I began writing this article with the intent of giving a player to watch from each contending team.  However, that task has proven to be daunting and waters down the quality of depth that each of these teams posesses.  So, I have decided that this post will be focused on the 5 A.L. teams and the next post will highlight the 6 N.L. teams.  Each post will be allocated $100 (not $50 and $50). 

Ok, this will be hard, but I will am up for the task.  As always, your thoughts and prospective lists are welcome.  I will be using average Ebay prices from the past two weeks as my point of reference.  Here we go…

 

Tampa Bay Rays—87-57 1st place A.L. East

Rocco Baldelli 2000 Bowman Chrome DP (x5)—$7.50

• The revival of Rocco has been the one of the great chapters within the success story that is the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.  Baldelli, who was once compared to Joltin’ Joe Dimaggio, had his career seemingly cut short when he fell prey to a chronic fatigue disorder which robbed his body of the necessary energy to participate in strenuous physical activity.  Somehow, Baldelli has found a way to make it back to the Rays’ lineup as a DH and RF.  Baldelli cannot yet handle a full time workload, but his story is as compelling as that of the Rays this season and that is sure to get more national publicity the further the Rays progress in the playoffs.

 

Carlos Pena 1999 Bowman Chrome (x5)—$7.50

• How far the mighty have fallen.  Last season’s breakout player has not delivered the goods this season hitting just .245 with 27 HR and 85 RBI.  While this is a far cry from last year’s 46 HR 121 RBI performance, it bears worth noticing that Pena was suffering from nagging injuries that kept him out of most of June.  Since his return, Pena has averaged a HR every 10 AB’s and is walking quite a bit more.  He has carried this lineup since Evan Longoria’s hand injury and will play a crucial role within this lineup down the home stretch.  Collectors have become disenchanted with his cards, don’t make the same mistake.  the ‘99 Bowman Chrome series 2 set features the nicest of his low end RC’s and are readily available in quantities.

 

Boston Red Sox—85-58 2nd Place A.L East, 1st Place W.C.

 Jon Lester 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft (x10)—$12.50

• It is really hard to find an under-hyped Red Sox prospect or player.  Lester is not underhyped, and this card is not Lester’s first (2002 Prospect Premieres) nor is it his best.  However, it is one that can be bought for cheap and is available in bulk quantities.  Lester has #1 starter stuff and knows how to win.  His no-hitter this season and return from cancer are compelling stories that will get more play, the more the Sox play.  Lester has an opportunity to move into the #2 spot in the rotation between Beckett and Dice-K if the Sox decide to employ a righty, lefty, righty look to their rotation.  That is a distinct possibility that will allow Lester to pitch more post-season innings, increasing the chances for him to do something special in the national spotlight.

 

Jed Lowrie 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft (x2)—$7.50

• Lowrie has all but taken the starting SS job away from Julio Lugo and has proven resilient in his first 200 AB’s.  While Lowrie does not have much power, he is particularly adept at driving in runs, especially in crucial situations.  Ammortized over a 600 AB season, Lowrie would have a Tommy Herr-like 6 HR and 120 RBI.  Clutch hitting during the ‘08 playoffs could vault Lowrie into the hearts of Red Sox Nation alongside other young stars like Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Chicago White Sox— 80-62 1st Place A.L. Central

 

 Gavin Floyd 2002 Bowman Chrome Auto—$12.00

• The White Sox have been a team that has been bouyed primarily on power hitting offense to keep them atop the heap in the A.L. Central.  Now with MLB HR leader Carlos Quentin on the shelf for the remainder of the year, it is the pitching that must step forward to keep them there.  Gavin Floyd has been a long term package of unfulfilled promise since his days as a number one draft pick with the Philadelphia Phillies.  This year, Floyd has gone a long way to making himself into a number one pitcher for a playoff contender.  Floyd has a 15-6 record, including wins in his last 5 decisions.  The White Sox still have enough offense to match up against any pitching rotation, but their own rotation will be the key in determining if and how far the South Side Boys will go in October.

 

Paul Konerko 1994 Topps Traded (X10)—$12.50

• Konerko has had a disasterous ‘08 (he killed my fantasy team).  However, since the acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. and a temporary decrease in AB’s, Paulie has turned things around big time.  He’s batting .367 since the beginning of August with 7 HR (including one in each of the last three games) 15 RBI and 20 BB vs. just 14 K’s.  With Quentin on the shelf, Konerko’s power needs to be present in the middle of the lineup.  So far, he seems up to the task.

Minnesota Twins—78-65 2nd place A.L. Central, 2nd place W.C.

Francisco Liriano 2002 Bowman (X10)—$12.50

• Perhaps the antithesis to the Chicago White Sox, the Minnesota Twins’ formula for success has been its starting pitching.  Headlining that group is the dominant left arm of ace Francisco Liriano.  Liriano has been perfect since his return from minor league exile winning his last 5 decisions and lowering his ERA an even 8 runs per 9 IP during that stretch.  Liriano is unquestionably the ace of this rotation and has the Twins surging since his return.  The Twins took their sweet time in getting Liriano back into their rotation, let’s hope for their sake that it wasn’t too long.

 

Kevin Slowey 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft (X10)—$12.50

• The yin to Liriano’s yang, Slowey offers control and deception from the right hand side of the mound.  Slowey struggled in the early going this year, but has really turned it on going 4-1 in the month of August with 37 K’s and only 2 walks in 37 IP.  Slowey doesn’t have the flash or velocity that most frontline pitchers possess, but he has evolved into a winner who gives quality starts each and every time out.  He will surely be the number two pitcher in the Twins rotation if they play in October.

L.A. Angels—87-56 1st Place A.L. West (Best A.L. record)

 

 Ervin Santana 2004 Bowman’s Best Auto—$12.00

• 2008 marks the coming out party for Santana and the end of years of frustration for the L.A. Angels organization.  Santana has shown glimpses of dominance in the past, but this season he has put it all together to be the ace of the Angels’ staff going 15-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 191 K’s vs. only 44 BB.  Santana’s opponents are only hitting .233 off of him, but he has allowed 19 dingers, which may haunt him come playoff time.  The Angels are going far this year, perhaps all the way to the World Series parade.  Don’t be surprised to see Ervin Santana supplant John Lackey as the Angels most used pitcher come playoff time. 

 

Brandon Wood 2003 UD Prospect Premieres (x2)—$4.50

• Ugh, I wish I had more money to spend! Brandon Wood is not ready yet, but he is not far from ready to be superstar in this league.  Plate discipline has been his bane, but he is showing signs of figuring things out.  I think that he will be included on the Angels’ post season roster as a bench bat that can provide game changing power late in a game.  We shall see.  regardless, he is on the cusp of being the regular 3B that the Angels have been searching for since the days of Dallas McPherson.

 

Wow, that was difficult and should provide fodder for great conversation.  Let’s see how it all plays out!