Carlos Santana MLB Debut Set For Friday

Posted by Jeremy on June 11, 2010 under Hot Prospect Profile, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Cleveland Indians blue chip catching prospect Carlos Santana bid the minor leagues farewell in style last night, going 3-4 with his 13th HR, 3 RBI and 3 runs scored.  This fine performance raised his season totals to .317/.447/.597 with 51 RBI 39 runs scored and an impressive 45 BB/39 K ratio.  The Indians were rumored to keep Santana at AAA Columbus until the end of this month or early July so that he could continue to work on his defense but, with the Indians’ continued struggles and the limited upside of rookie catcher Lou Marson, the reasons to keep Santana down seem to have diminished completely.  His impact in that lineup will be immediate and significant.  Santana has excellent power, above average athleticism, and better plate discipline than anyone on the Indians’ roster. 

The current eBay market for Santana’s cards is not much different than it was when I wrote about him a few days ago.  His autographed cards in the 2008 Bowman Sterling and 2009 Bowman Chrome sets sell for $40-45 right now and his first year non-autographed cards in the 2008 Bowman Chrome set sell for about $2.50-3.00 each.  I maintain that the non-autographed cards could approach the $8-10 range if Santana can hit right out of the gate.   There is no reason to think that he won’t do this, which makes this card a very good short term speculative buy.

Cleveland has a superstar switch-hitting catcher once again and that, at long last, finally gives Indians fans something to cheer about.

Current Carlos Santana eBay Auctions:

Trade Rumor: Cliff Lee Pursued By the Yankees

Posted by Jeremy on June 10, 2010 under MLB Trade Analysis | Be the First to Comment

The Seattle Mariners had great expectations entering the 2010 season.  After additions of Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Brandon League, and Casey Kotchman to their roster, an A.L. West crown seemed to be an inevitability.  Now just ten days into the month of June, the M’s sit at the bottom of the division with a 23-36 record and the hope of climbing back into contention ebbs with each series loss. 

Sensing blood in the water, the New York Yankees are the most recent team to inquire about the services of Cliff Lee.  Fox Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal has reported that the M’s are listening and would require one of the Yankees’ blue chip catching prospects, Jesus Montero or Austin Romine, and AAA shortstop Eduardo Nunez in the package.  Zdurencik is notoriously inclined to opt for players with with defensive prowess over offensive upside, which would make Romine the more appealing backstop.  If so, it would seem that another player would need to be included to make the deal work.  Potentially, that could be an arm, like RHP’s Zach McAllister, Mark Melancon, Hector Noesi, or Andrew Brackman, or it could be a corner infield power bat like Brandon Laird or Juan Miranda.

A trade to the Yankees is not an imminent certainty.  Offseason acquisitions of Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez have depleted this organization of a considerable amount of depth, plus Phil Hughes’ emergence as a future ace, coupled with agelessness of Andy Pettite, may prompt the Yankees to be more inclined to allow another team to purchase Lee as a rental before making a full-fledged pitch for him in the offseason.

One of those other teams, already to have inquired about Lee, could be the L.A. Dodgers.  Adding Lee to the top of a rotation that already features talented youngsters Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley would provide a much needed boost in what is shaping up to be a fiercely competitive N.L. West race.  The Dodgers have prospects, SS Dee Gordon, 1B/OF Andrew Lambo, OF Kyle Russell, and RHP’s Chris Withrow, James McDonald, and Ethan Martin, that could make a nice compensatory package.

The surprising Cincinnati Reds could also be a darkhorse team to enter fray.  Super rookie Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto have combined to go 10-1 so far, while Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have also won five games apiece.  This rotation is without an ace, though, and each starter has been the beneficiary of excellent run support from a highly potent offense.  To date, the Reds hold a one game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals atop the mediocre N.L. Central.  This lead won’t last for long unless the Reds bolster their rotation.  They have the prospects to land Lee, headlined by ‘08 1st round pick Yonder Alonso.  Other appealing position players include 3B Juan Francisco, 1B/3B Todd Frazier, C Devin Mesoraco, while LHP’s Matt Maloney and Travis Wood, or the unfulfilled talent Homer Bailey could also be targeted.

Market View:

Despite his solid pitching performances, there isn’t a great deal of movement in Cliff Lee’s 2002 cards right now as the Mariners are completely off of the MLB radar right now.  A trade to the Yankees would surely change that immediately.  Limited data gathered from some of the 2002 Donruss products show a current market value of $38-42 for his autographed RC’s and $2-3 per card prices for his various ‘02 non-auto RC’s.   Other cards moving on the market right now are his array of autographed cards from ‘03-present.  These can be found at prices below $6 to more than $20, depending on brand and rarity.

The autos seem like a solid value to me at this time.  Even if he doesn’t end up with the Yankees this season, the probability of Lee wearing pinstripes by next year is quite high. The market for all Yankees cards has historically been a strong one, especially for superstar players.  Lee’s intense work ethic, blend of control and stuff, and his ability to elevate his game in clutch situations will endear him to Bronx fans and the market for his stuff will respond with an emphatic boom.  

Other Beneficiaries:

The trade will also have a market effect on the prospects that the Mariners glean from the deal.  The M’s will surely be selecting players that fit into their near future plans, which should expedite their MLB debuts and/or definitive roles.  Additionally, the market for Seattle Mariners cards has been a strong one, even in down seasons, due to a strong fan base both domestically and abroad.  Despite an unforseen letdown this season, Zdurencik has in short order rebuilt a mediocre farm system into a promising pool of future major league talent.  That bodes well for the team’s long term prognosis and for the continued marketability of their players.

Players most likely to benefit from a move to Seattle:

• Homer Bailey–Pitcher-friendly Safeco Field could mitigate flyball tendencies
• Yonder Alonso–Casey Kotchman is no Joey Votto
• Austin Romine–Montero hasn’t hung up the catcher’s gear quite yet
• Zach McAllister–M’s fans like Doug Fister?  McAllister is a younger version
• Andrew Lambo–Lefty power bat has no role in L.A.’s OF log jam

The Lee bidding sesaon is just underway and there is certain to be more activity in the following weeks.   Have a trade scenerio or an opinion on the market effect this move will have?  Leave a comment below.

Cliff Lee To The Phillies Trade & The eBay Market

Posted by Jeremy on August 3, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

This was an article submitted some time ago to the Cardboard Connection, but it didn’t make its way to publication.  As a result, I will post it up on PPR for your viewing pleasure.  Have some opinions on the trade deadline deals and their effects on the sports card market?  Let your opinions be known in the comments section!

As the banter between the Blue Jays and Phillies for coveted RHP Roy Halladay reached an impass, the Phillies utilized their backup plan and shipped highly regarded prospects Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp to the Cleveland Indians for 2008 Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.  Here’s a closer look at the primary pieces involved.

Cliff Lee:  The southpaw should provide the stability in the #2 rotation spot that struggling young ace Cole Hamels needs.  Lee has been one of the few bright spots for the A.L.’s worst team this year going 7-9 with a 3.14 ERA this season.  A move to the defending world champions should help breathe some life into the market for Lee’s various first year cards from 2002 as well as his autographed cards from subsequent seasons and sets.  Philadelphia is a solid collector’s market and Lee’s level of success should dictate the amount of heat that his cards generate on eBay and other sites.

Jason Donald: After a largely successful 2008 season which saw him lead Team USA to a bronze medal in Beijing and hit over .400 in the Arizona Fall League, it seemed that Donald was going to be the logical replacement for either Chase Utley or Pedro Feliz as each recovered from off season surgery.  Instead, it was Donald who struggled with injuries and missed most of June and July recovering from surgery on his torn meniscus.  In 51 games this season, the former Arizona Wildcat is hitting just .235 with one HR and 16 RBI at AAA Lehigh Valley.  Donald is a versatile infielder, able to play SS, 2B and 3B adaquately, though he best profiles at second or third defensively.  His bat should come around once his knee gets to full strength and he gets to full speed.  Donald has chart topping makeup and work ethic skills that makes him a natural leader on and off the field.  Cleveland is a rebuilding team with several holes to fill, but it seems that the one most suitable for next season will be in place of impending free agent Jamey Carroll as the team’s utility man.  Donald has enough offensive upside that he could be a 10-15 HR per season guy with good plate discipline and the ability to hit for a decent average.  From a market perspective, Donald’s card values, most notably his 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft and 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto, apexed during  last year’s AFL campaign and prior to spring training when there was much conjecture that he would be joining the Phillies as a starter.  Things have not worked out that way and the market for his stuff has waned but not disappeared.  His ‘06 Bowman Chrome Draft cards can be had from time to time in lots for 75 cents to $1.25 each and his ‘08 Sterling autos sell for $6-8 apiece.  If all goes well healthwise, it seems to be a sure bet that Donald will earn some playing time with the Indians at some point this summer.  Keep an eye on his bat to see if he can replicate some of his ‘08 magic.  If so, the market for his cards could see a nice short term boost.

Lou Marson: The acquisition of Marson is a prime indicator of a future departure of All-Star catcher Victor Martinez.  Marson has had a solid, but unspectacular season playing primarily at Lehigh Valley hitting .294 with one HR and 24 RBI in 63 games.  Marson is a solid defensive catcher with a strong arm and excellent leadership skills behind the plate.  Offensively, he has demonstrated the ability to hit for a high batting average with spectacular plate discipline, but his power numbers are below average.  Once V-Mart finds a new home, Kelly Shoppach should take over behind the plate with Marson backing him up.  Unfortunately for Marson, #1 Indians prospect Carlos Santana is not far behind and his 19 HR at AA is a prime indicator that his tenure with the club will begin very soon.  Similar to Donald’s cards, Marson’s 2004 first year cards, particularly in the Bowman Chrome Draft and SP Prospects sets, experienced their greatest values toward the end of 2008 when it was speculated by many that he would be the Phillies’ opening day catcher for 2009.  Currently his SP Prospects auto (#/550) sells for $15-18 and his Bowman Chrome Draft cards sell for less than a buck each.  He should be called up from AAA Columbus soon, perhaps immediately after the club trades Victor Martinez.

Carlos Carrasco: Baseball America tabbed the Venezuelan right-hander as the Phillies’ #1 prospect in 2008 but he has pitched like anything but in 2009.  After starting the season at 0-6, Carrasco has had much more fortune lately winning six out of his last nine decisions.  Carrasco, 21, has a tall and strong frame that oozes projectibility.  With a fastball that reaches 94 with good late life and a fading changeup he has the potential to be a solid #2 or 3 pitcher at the major league level.  Moving forward, Carrasco needs to be more consistent.  He has proven to be durable, averaging six innings per start this season, but he’s also had problems putting away hitters with regularity.  His move to the Indians will surely secure a rotation spot for him in the near future.  Carrasco has first year cards in the 2005 Bowman Chrome set that sell for $2-3 each and autographs in the 2008 Bowman Sterling set that can be had at $7-8 each.  While his ceiling remains high, Carrasco will need to prove that he’s ready to be a consistent MLB hurler in order for his cards to surpass their current prices.

Jason Knapp: The 19 year old hurler is perhaps the top prospect in this trade.  Knapp is big and burly (6-5 235 lb.) with a fastball that approaches 100 MPH. and a power slider that should be a devastating strikeout pitch in time.  Knapp’s 2-7 record and 4.01 ERA belies the  true dominance of his stuff as he’s compiled a 39 BB/111 K ratio over his first 85 innings this season and is limiting hitters to a .208 batting average.  Shoulder fatigue shut has shut Jason down for the past couple of weeks, but the Phillies organization have maintained that the move was a precautionary procedure and not injury related.  The challenge for Knapp moving forward will be his ability to sharpen the command of his two plus plus pitches.  He’s shown an aptitude for throwing a changeup and its development could determine whether Knapp is going to develop as a frontline starter or dominant closer.  Knapp has first year autos in several 2008 sets including Donruss Elite, Playoff Contenders, and Bowman Sterling.  They range from $8-12 each and his 2009 Bowman autos fetch $6-8 each. 

This deal was a true blockbuster that saw both the Phillies and Indians reap benefits.  For the Phils, they recevied yet another left handed pitcher for their rotation without having to part with Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor.  The acquisition of Lee levels the playing field between them and the Dodgers and should make for a thrilling NLCS showdown this year and sets them up for another pennant run in 2010.  Ben Francisco gives them an upgrade in their bench and probably spells the end of the line for John Mayberry Jr.  The Indians receive organizational depth that is, with the exception of Knapp, MLB ready.  For a rebuilding team looking to slash payroll, this was a solid, but not spectacular, haul.

Pirates/M’s and Cliff Lee Trade Analyses

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

The Cardboard Connection has posted my article I wrote in the wake of the Matt Holliday deal.  While the trade is now old news, here’s the link to the article for your viewing pleasure.

I also stayed up late last night tapping out similar articles for the Pirates/M’s trade and the Cliff Lee to Philly deal.  I think the Pirates added some significant depth to their system as did the Indians.  The M’s filled a couple of holes in their roster, but not spectacularly so.  The Phillies may have purchased a couple more trips to the World Series while keeping their trifecta of elite prospects (Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, and Michael Taylor). 

I will link to the Pirates/M’s trade article and Cliff Lee to Philly articles once they are posted on the Cardboard Connection.  If you haven’t checked out that site yet, do so today.  It is rapidly becoming one of the best sports card info sites on the web.

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

Posted by Jeremy on May 2, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

The chronic shoulder soreness of Travis Hafner added with a red hot month of April at AAA Columbus has ushered in the long-awaited Matt LaPorta era.  The Cleveland Indians will call up LaPorta on Saturday and, given Hafner’s health over the past couple of seasons, it is quite conceivable that the Indians’ top prospect  will be playing full time either as a DH or outfielder. 

Here’s what I wrote about the former Florida Gator for Hot-Prospects.net on 11/13/08….

LaPorta got off to a red hot start last season as the centerpiece of AA Huntsville’s star-studded lineup.  LaPorta belted 20 HR in just 84 games while hitting .288.  LaPorta then was traded to the Cleveland Indians in the C.C. Sabathia trade where he struggled in a brief stint before playing in Beijing for the bronze medal winning U.S. Olympic Baseball Team.  LaPorta has light tower power that could translate into 30-40 HR per season at the major league level. He has a keen eye at the plate and works counts well. Numerous coaches and players have given him credit for having an unparalleled work ethic as well.  Defensively and athletically, LaPorta is limited.  His arm strength and foot speed will relegate him to LF or 1B and he will never be a threat on the basepaths.  It is LaPorta’s bat that commands respect, though, and his power is real.

2009 Projection: LaPorta is playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason and has struggled offensively.  Expect him to start the ‘09 season at AAA Buffalo as the Indians are eager to get him into their lineup at some point in 2009.  Watch to see if LaPorta can get his considerable offensive potential back on track early.  If so, his 2007 Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite Extra Autographs could experience a considerable bump in market value.

UPDATE: LaPorta has definitely gotten things back on track at Columbus hitting .333 with 5 HR 14 RBI and 22 runs scored in just 21 games.  He has good plate discipline to compliment his 30+ HR power walking 9 times versus 10 K’s this season.  With no really solid AL Rookie of the Year performances to date, there is still an ample opportunity for the Indians’ top prospect to distinguish himself as the top rookie hitter in the junior circuit.

Current eBay Values for LaPorta’s Cards:

• 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft—$3.50-5.00
• 2007 Bowman Sterling Auto—$40.00-45.00
• 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto (#/593)—$38.00-42.00
• 2008 Bowman Chrome Auto—$40.00-45.00

As you can see, expectations are high for LaPorta to succeed at the major league level but is there room for growth in his autographed cards?  I would say yes, but with the caveat that spending nearly $50 on an autograph makes it much more risky to generate a nice return on investment than a lower priced card does.  I’ll cover this method of prospecting in a future article (I promise).

To me, the best buys for an elite prospect like Matt LaPorta can be found in the Bowman base and Chrome cards, preferrably from the ‘07 set.  Once LaPorta starts heating up and sending balls into the seats at Jacobs Field, several of the more casual baseball card fans will start hitting the eBay market hard in hopes of adding the young slugger to their collections.  This level of collector tends to seek out the cheaper cards, but tends to pay close to, and in some cases above, full book value for these cards.  Snagging a bulk lot of base cards at $1.00-1.50 apiece could turn into exponential profits within a short period of time.

Here are some current Matt LaPorta auctions on eBay

Top 20 Outfield Prospects for 2009 (Part 1)

Posted by Jeremy on February 24, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Are you ready for a banger of a list?  I originally made a list of about 50 OF that could potentially find their way onto this list and had a dickens of a time narrowing it down to the top 20.  This link will contain the top 10 and a following link will have 11-20. 

If you are on your best behavior….I will add a gratuitous third list covering ranks 21-30.

I was oscillating between three strong candidates for the top honors on the list.  I chose to go with youthful upside over polish and experience.  Jason Heyward exceeded the lofty expectations heaped upon him by the baseball prospecting world by decimating pitching in his first dose of full season ball.  As good as his season was, he has yet to even chisel through the surface of his mountainous potential. 

 

1.) Jason Heyward—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

ROM	SAL	.323	120	449	88	145	27	6	11	52	217	49	74	15	3	.388	.483	.871
MYR	CAR	.182	7	22	3	4	2	0	0	4	6	2	4	0	0	.240	.273	.513
Minors		.316	127	471	91	149	29	6	11	56	223	51	78	15	3	.381	.473	.854

 

 

Strengths: Where to begin with this youngster?  Heyward has off the charts power potential, plus speed, a cannon for an arm, and has shown an ability to hit for a high average with excellent plate discipline.  Heyward is an intelligent ballplayer who carries his lunchpail to work day in and day out.

Weaknesses: Just experience at this point.  Chances are that he will lose some of his speed as he ages and will become more of a slugger.  He did struggle in his brief time at High-A Myrtle Beach, but there is no reason to believe that this will be a prolonged problem for the 19 year old southpaw.

2009 Outlook: Heyward gets a  taste of the Braves’ big league camp this spring but his early regular season months will be spent back at Myrtle Beach.  There’s a big possibility that he will earn a promotion to AA Mississippi at some point.  Heyward is a fast track player and one of baseball’s most intriguing prospects.

 

2.) Travis Snider—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUN	FSL	.279	17	61	15	17	5	0	4	7	34	5	22	1	0	.333	.557	.891
NHM	EAS	.262	98	362	65	95	21	0	17	67	167	52	116	1	1	.357	.461	.818
SYR	INT	.344	18	64	9	22	5	0	2	17	33	4	16	1	0	.386	.516	.901
Minors		.275	133	487	89	134	31	0	23	91	234	61	154	3	1	.358	.480	.838
MLB		.301	24	73	9	22	6	0	2	13	34	5	23	0	0	.338	.466	.803

 

 

Strengths: Jaw dropping power potential.  Snider has a thick muscular build that generates incredible torque from a left handed swing that produces tape measure moon shots.  He is a gritty player who works hard in all aspects of his game.  He is more athletic than he looks and profiles as an pretty good RF with a rocket arm.

Weaknesses: The price for great power is a prolific number of strikeouts.  Snider’s high K rates lends him to be streaky at times at the plate.  He is just 20 years old, but has already maxed out physically.  He should lose some of his average speed as he ages and could be a risk for injuries.

2009 Outlook: Snider looks to have a starting OF spot locked up before spring starts.  He is a prime candidate for the ‘09 A.L. Rookie of the Year award, but he could be afflicted by a post debut slump just as well.  Long term, there is plenty to be excited about in this youngster.

 

3.) Cameron Maybin—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CAR	SOU	.277	108	390	73	108	15	8	13	49	178	60	124	21	7	.375	.456	.831
Minors		.277	108	390	73	108	15	8	13	49	178	60	124	21	7	.375	.456	.831
MLB		.500	8	32	9	16	2	0	0	2	18	3	8	4	0	.543	.563	1.105

 

 

Strengths: Maybin has a wide assortment of tools emanating from a highly athletic and strong 6-4 205 lb. frame.  Cameron possesses track star speed and sinewy strength that should make him a perennial 20 HR/20 SB player and, possibly, a 30 HR/30 SB threat in future seasons.  He covers a ton of real estate in CF while running good routes on balls and employs excellent arm strength as well.

Weaknesses: His performance has yet to match his tools.  Maybin was rushed through the Tigers farm system and the results were lackluster.  The Marlins have taken a more prudent approach to his development, which seems to have rendered more positive results.  He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough.  This affects his ability to get on base at higher levels and utilize his game changing speed.  He has considerable power potential, but doesn’t seem to know quite how to tap into it.  He hits a high rate of groundballs and struggles at times to generate the necessary swing trajectory to drive pitches.

2009 Outlook: Maybin is ready to become a full time major league hitter.  His development is not quite consummated, but his skill set is too good to keep down on the farm any longer.  Maybin has the potential to be the National League’s best rookie in 2009, but his plate discipline and ability to drive the ball need to improve.  Eventually, his skills should win out and translate to a highly productive major league career.

 

4.) Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CAR	GCL	.556	3	9	1	5	1	0	1	2	9	3	2	0	0	.667	1.000	1.667
PBC	FSL	.000	3	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	.182	.000	.182
MEM	PCL	.251	90	331	56	83	15	0	11	36	131	49	72	15	3	.346	.396	.742
Minors		.252	96	349	58	88	16	0	12	38	140	53	77	15	3	.351	.401	.752

 

 

Strengths: Rasmus has an exciting blend of speed and power potential that could land him at the top of a lineup or in the middle.  He has shown an ability to draw walks and is an impact player on the basepaths.  Defensively, Rasmus is as good as they come.  His spectacular plays and vast range reminds some of a former Gold Glove CF that patrolled Busch Stadium for years, Jim Edmonds.

Weaknesses: Injuries hampered Rasmus last season and for the second season in a row, Colby struggled in the early parts of the season.  Additionally, Colby has yet to display the ability to hit for a high average since his 2006 numbers at short season Quad Cities.

2009 Outlook: The Cardinals seem ready to have Rasmus challenge to take over the everyday CF duties on Opening Day.  Rasmus has the ability to put up Grady Sizemore-like numbers in future seasons, but odds are that he will suffer some growing pains in his first couple of seasons.  Hopefully they will be limited to performance and not health.

 

5.) Matt LaPorta—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
HUN	SOU	.288	84	302	56	87	23	2	20	66	174	45	63	2	1	.402	.576	.978
AKR	EAS	.233	17	60	6	14	1	0	2	8	21	4	12	0	0	.299	.350	.649
Minors		.279	101	362	62	101	24	2	22	74	195	49	75	2	1	.386	.539	.924

 

 

Strengths: LaPorta has 30-40 HR power potential and the ability to hit for a high average as well.  Matt is a polished hitter with good plate discipline and above average hand-eye coordination.  LaPorta has an engaging personality that makes him a positive presence in every clubhouse and a potential team leader.

Weaknesses: Matt struggled after being traded to Cleveland, but those shouldn’t affect his long term development.  He is a fringe average defensive player as both an outfielder and first baseman.  He may end up as a DH in future seasons.  He has below average speed that makes him a coagulant on the bases.

2009 Outlook:  Matt will make his MLB debut at some point this season, probably after May.  Expect him to rebound from last year’s struggles at Akron to hit very well at AAA Columbus.  Once he arrives, his power bat should anchor the middle of the Indians lineup for several seasons to come.

 

6.) Dexter Fowler—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
TUL	TEX	.335	108	421	92	141	31	9	9	64	217	65	89	20	8	.431	.515	.946
Minors		.335	108	421	92	141	31	9	9	64	217	65	89	20	8	.431	.515	.946
MLB		.154	13	26	3	4	0	0	0	0	4	0	5	0	1	.185	.154	.339

 

 

Strengths: Fowler is an exciting athlete with top of the order speed and the ability to hit for average and decent power numbers.  He has exhibited a great deal of patience at the plate which results in a high number of walks.  Defensively, Dexter is exciting to watch.  He tracks down balls well in the gaps making highlight reel plays and his strong arm should play anywhere.  He is an intelligent player who once turned down a basketball scholarship to Harvard.

Weaknesses: Fowler needs to continue to get stronger.  His wiry frame doesn’t quite produce the pop that people anticipate he will eventually develop.  He had a problem with injuries in the past, though his ‘08 season was injury free. 

2009 Outlook: Fowler has a great shot to make the club out of spring training as Ryan Spilborghs is his only competition in CF.  A good showing this spring should relegate Spilborghs to the 4th oufielder spot.  If things don’t go well in spring training, the Rockies may elect to send him to Colorado Springs for some fine tuning.  Fowler is a prime top of the lineup candidate whose best years are ahead of him.

 

7.) Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
IND	INT	.283	135	512	75	145	26	3	9	50	204	68	87	34	19	.372	.398	.770
Minors		.283	135	512	75	145	26	3	9	50	204	68	87	34	19	.372	.398	.770

 

 

Strengths: Top of the lineup skills that includes elite speed that can steal 25-30 bases per MLB season, and an advanced, patient approach at the plate that draws a high amount of walks.  McCutchen has a highly athletic and wiry frame that has intriguing power potential.  He has put on some muscle in the offseason which could well translate into more HR’s.  He plays with an elevated level of confidence and seems to put up better numbers after every promotion.  McCutchen’s also has the potential to be a Gold Glove outfielder with a propensity to make spectacular plays.

Weaknesses: The power hasn’t developed as some have expected, perhaps partly due being rushed through the Pirates’ system.  Also, he needs to be more disciplined on the basepaths as well.  McCutchen was caught stealing 19 times in 53 chances last season.

2009 Outlook: The long awaited MLB debut for Andrew McCutchen will happen this season, but not in April.  The Pirates would like to have him play every day and are still trying to assess the potential productivity of Steven Pearce, Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan.  Once McCutchen makes his debut, he should rise to the challenge and be the rock solid impact player atop Pittsburgh’s lineup for the next several years.

 

8.) Fernando Martinez—New York Mets

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
MTS	GCL	.429	4	14	2	6	1	1	0	0	9	0	2	0	0	.467	.643	1.110
BIN	EAS	.287	86	352	48	101	19	4	8	43	152	27	73	6	2	.340	.432	.772
Minors		.292	90	366	50	107	20	5	8	43	161	27	75	6	2	.345	.440	.785

 

 

Strengths: Martinez has a quick swing that generates good leverage that should be able to produce 25-30 HR per season within the next couple of years.  Those who watch him rave about his advanced hitting approach and feel that he can evolve into a .300 hitter. 

Weaknesses: He’s been bitten by the injury bug over the past couple of seasons which has hampered some of his development.  Aside from his outstanding bat, his other skills are average.  The Mets organization would like to see him demonstrate more patience at the plate as advanced pitchers will find ways to get him out.

2009 Outlook: F-Mart is on the cusp of a big time breakout.  His performance in the Dominican Winter League gave a brief glimpse of power to come.  The Mets will likely start him at AAA Buffalo before bringing him up for his MLB debut in the second half of the season.  The offensive ceiling for this 20 year old is incredibly high and someday his name may be mentioned in the same breath as David Wright and Jose Reyes.

 

9.) Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
GBO	SAL	.293	125	468	89	137	26	3	39	97	286	58	153	4	2	.381	.611	.993
Minors		.293	125	468	89	137	26	3	39	97	286	58	153	4	2	.381	.611	.993

 

 

Strengths: The ball explodes off of this kid’s bat.  To project him as a 40 HR hitter may be underestimating his potential ceiling.  At 6-5 225 lb., Stanton is built like a statue but has the athleticism of an NFL wide receiver.  His plus speed and arm strength makes him a prototypical RF in the mold of Dave Winfield.  He is an intelligent young man with a great work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: 158 punchouts is to high, even for a hitter with Stanton’s immense power.  He is fooled quite easily by breaking pitches and still has a raw feel for the strike zone.  Despite his good speed, Michael Stanton doesn’t steal many bags-a trend that should continue as he matures. 

2009 Outlook: A 39 HR season as a 19 year old puts Stanton on the fast track.  He should start the season at High-A Jupiter and could earn a promotion to AA Jacksonville if all goes well.  The chances for a 2009 slump is a real possibility.  Stanton has propelled himself onto the radar screens of just about every minor league pitcher.  The Florida State League is a pitcher’s haven and the expectations heaped upon Stanton after his ‘08 campaign will be difficult to uphold.  Long term, his place alongside Cameron Maybin and opposite John Raynor will give the Marlins an outfield as talented as any in major league baseball within the next few seasons.

 

10.) Michael Taylor—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAK	SAL	.361	67	249	40	90	12	3	10	50	138	31	43	10	3	.441	.554	.995
CLE	FSL	.329	65	243	36	80	27	1	9	38	136	19	46	5	6	.380	.560	.939
Minors		.346	132	492	76	170	39	4	19	88	274	50	89	15	9	.412	.557	.968

 

 

Strengths: Taylor is a complete hitter with a muscular 6-6 250 lb. frame and left handed swing that can launch balls into the stratosphere.  He is an excellent athlete that runs well, steals bases and plays a very good right field.  His plate discipline is quite advanced and he brings an intelligent approach to all aspects of his game.

Weaknesses: Given his size, it is conceivable that he could lose some of his basestealing abilities as he ages and could become more of a power hitter.  His BB/K ratio regressed after his promotion to High-A, though it didn’t have a noticable effect on his batting average.  He is currently 23 years old and needs to avoid having any setbacks at AA or AAA in order to maintain his status as an elite prospect. 

2009 Outlook: AA will be the next step for Taylor.  This should provide a firm indicator to the true scope of his offensive skills.  If he can continue his torrid hitting, Taylor could vault himself into the top five slots on this list.  Expect him to be in the major leagues at some time in 2010…perhaps in April.

 

Stay tuned for the second half of this list and feel free to comment of the Top 10.  There are plenty of sound investments in this group of future superstars and the market for their cards is starting to sizzle.  If you are looking to make a purchase, please feel free to do so through one of my eBay affiliate links!

Top 20 Third Base Prospects for 2009 (Part 1)

Posted by Jeremy on February 19, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | 2 Comments to Read

For those of you who enjoy these top 20 lists, I apologize for the delay in compiling this one.  I knew that this was going to be a banger of a list, but after writing about 40-50 names of potential candidates, I am absolutely floored at the amount of talent left off of this list.  The top 20 is an intriguing blend of polished college players and high upside youngsters from both the domestic and international markets.   Diverse as they may seem, each player has something in common–they can flat out rake. 

After oscillating between two Scott Boras clients for top spot honors, I have decided to go with the #2 overall pick of the 2007 draft Mike Moustakas. 

 

1.) Mike Moustakas—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

 

 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
BUR	MID	.272	126	496	77	135	25	3	22	71	232	43	86	8	4	.337	.468	.805
Minors		.272	126	496	77	135	25	3	22	71	232	43	86	8	4	.337	.468	.805

 

 

Strengths: Moustakas has a bat that produces prolific power to all fields (he hit 52 HR in his high school career).  He has a strong feel for the strike zone and should be able to hit for a high batting average as well.  His cannon arm is ideal for 3B as he has been clocked at 98 MPH as a prep player.  His athleticism has continually improved over the past three seasons which should open up some opportunities defensively

Weaknesses: He is an average to below average defensive player at this point.  There has been come conjecture of playing him at 3B, RF and even C over the past couple of seasons.

2009 Outlook: Moustakas’ bat sizzled in the second half of the ‘08 season which may allow for him to use High-A Wilmington as a temporary springboard to AA NW Arkansas.  Moustakas is a prime time power prospect in every sense of the word and his role in the middle of a young and already talented Kansas City Royals lineup could begin as soon as Opening Day 2010.

 

2.) Pedro Alvarez—Pittsburgh Pirates

2008 Stats: N/A

Strengths: Pedro has a polished bat that should hit for above average power and should flirt with .300 on an annual basis.  He also has a strong grasp of the strike zone and should be able to put together a good BB/K ratio.

Weaknesses: His range, glove, and arm strength all grade out as fringe average and a shift to 1B may happen at some point in his career.  More disturbing is the revelations from Pirates camp that he has reported to camp overweight and out of shape.  After being a stick in the mud during the hotly contested bonus negotiations, Alvarez will be hard pressed to meet the lofty expectations heaped upon him.

2009 Outlook: Alvarez is on the fast track to Pittsburgh as the clock is ticking on his 6-year MLB contract.  Expect him to start at High-A Lynchburgh before moving to AA Altoona at some point.  The Bucs currently have Neil Walker and Andy LaRoche battling for time at the hot corner, but the swiftly approaching arrival of Alvarez will blow both of them off to other positions or organizations.

 

3.) Brett Wallace—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

 

 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
QC	MID	.327	41	153	28	50	8	1	5	25	75	17	32	0	0	.418	.490	.908
SPR	TEX	.367	13	49	13	18	5	0	3	11	32	2	7	0	0	.456	.653	1.109
Minors		.337	54	202	41	68	13	1	8	36	107	19	39	0	0	.427	.530	.957

 

Strengths: Wallace has proven at multiple levels and locations that his bat is MLB ready and has the potential to be amongst league leaders in several offensive catagories.  Wallace has above average power that racks up XBH in bunches and his plate discipline is nothing short of exceptional.  He has also worked hard to improve his defense at 3B, which seems like a good home for his strong arm.

Weaknesses: At 6-1 245 lb., Wallace has big limitations athletically.  His thick lower body should drastically limit his range and baserunning speed as he ages. 

2009 Outlook: Despite Troy Glaus’ uncertain status following his shoulder surgery, Wallace will not be given much of an opportunity to win a roster spot with the Cardinals this spring.  Expect him to start the season at AAA Memphis.  He will patrol the infield of Bucsh Stadium at some point this season, however, and once he is up, it will probably be for good.

 

4.) Mat Gamel—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
HUN	SOU	.329	127	508	96	167	35	7	19	96	273	55	111	6	7	.395	.537	.933
NAS	PCL	.238	5	21	3	5	0	0	1	3	8	2	10	0	0	.304	.381	.685
Minors		.325	132	529	99	172	35	7	20	99	281	57	121	6	7	.392	.531	.923
MLB		.500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	.500	1.000	1.500

 

 

Strengths: Gamel’s bat strokes line drives all over the diamond with improving power to the alleys.  He is a good athlete who has a fair amount of speed that he uses well on the basepaths and defensively.  His arm is quite strong and a seemingly good fit at 3B or in the outfield.

Weaknesses: Mat’s hot corner defense went from dispicable in ‘07 to just pretty bad in ‘08.  It is still the Achilles Heel in his game and a move to the OF seems imminent.  Also, Gamel’s plate discipline lapsed considerably after the Brewers traded Matt LaPorta away.  Perhaps Gamel was trying to do too much in his absense or just received tougher pitching without the lineup protection that the former Florida Gator provided.

2009 Outlook: The gaggle of mediocre third basemen (Bill Hall, Craig Counsell, Mike Lamb) is not enough to keep Gamel off of the Miller Park infield in 2009.  Gamel will get a ton of opportunities this spring as Bill Hall just recently tore his calf muscle and is expected to be sidelined at least until Opening Day.  That may be enough time for Mat to demonstrate to the Brew Crew that he is ready to take the mantle as Milwaukee’s starting 3B.

 

5.) Matt Dominguez—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
GBO	SAL	.296	88	345	59	102	16	0	18	70	172	28	68	0	1	.354	.499	.853
Minors		.296	88	345	59	102	16	0	18	70	172	28	68	0	1	.354	.499	.853

 

 

Strengths: Dominguez showed surprising power potential as an 18 year old at full season ball.  He has excellent contact rates and should be able to hit for a high average as well.  The defensive abilities, however, is what sets Matt apart from other 3B prospects.  His range, hands, and arm strength make him a perennial Gold Glove candidate.

Weaknesses: He needs to improve on his ability to work deeper into counts and draw more walks.  More advanced pitchers will be able to get him out with off speed pitches out of the zone, lowering his batting average totals.  Though athletic, Dominguez is not a threat on the basepaths (0 career SB).

2009 Outlook: Dominguez will move to High-A Jupiter to start the season.  If he continues to build on his successes from last season, it is conceivable that Florida could bump him to AA.  He is one of the Marlins’ brightest prospects and his track to the big leagues should move quickly.

 

6.) Wilmer Flores—New York Mets

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
KNG	APP	.310	59	245	36	76	12	4	8	41	120	12	28	2	1	.352	.490	.842
SAV	SAL	.400	1	5	1	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	.400	.400	.800
BRO	NYP	.267	8	30	3	8	1	0	0	1	9	1	7	0	0	.290	.300	.590
Minors		.307	68	280	40	86	13	4	8	42	131	13	37	2	1	.347	.468	.815

 

 

Strengths: Limitless projectibility.  Flores has a long, athletic frame that has already demonstrated the ability to hit for power and average in his debut season.  He has excellent bat speed and an advanced feel for the game comparable to a young Miguel Cabrera.

Weaknesses: Many of his skills right now are quite raw.  Flores is only 17 years old and there are some questions as to how his body will develop.  If he bulks up like Cabrera did, it could prove to be slightly detrimental to his athleticism.  He also needs to continue to strengthen his grasp of the strike zone and work deeper into counts.

2009 Outlook: David Wright has the Mets’ 3B job sewn down through at least 2012 (and likely beyond).  That should give the young Flores ample time to develop at a conservative pace.  His next step is full season Low-A Savannah, which should give us a better glimpse at where he is at in his development.

 

7.) Josh Vitters—Chicago Cubs

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
PEO	MID	.214	4	14	1	3	3	0	0	1	6	0	5	0	0	.214	.429	.643
BOI	NOR	.328	61	259	38	85	25	2	5	37	129	13	45	1	3	.365	.498	.863
Minors		.322	65	273	39	88	28	2	5	38	135	13	50	1	3	.357	.495	.852

 

 

Strengths: Vitters has big time power potential and the ability to hit for a high average as well.  His bat speed is top notch and the fluidity of his swing is akin to that of elite left handed hitters.  Those within the Cubs organization praise Vitters’ work ethic and makeup.

Weaknesses: Defense is still a bit of a struggle for Josh.  He has a decent glove and a very strong arm, but his footwork and range issues are still a work in progress.  He has a big frame which should make his speed on the basepaths become below average in time.  Like many young sluggers, Vitters needs to continue to progress with his knowledge of the strike zone.

2009 Outlook: Josh was pushed a bit too aggressively in the early part of last season by being sent to full season Low-A ball.  He’’s ready now.  Expect Vitters to blossom offensively at Low-A Peoria building on his power potential and, hopefully, his defensive prowess.

 

8.) Neftali Soto—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
BIL	PIO	.388	15	67	12	26	10	1	4	11	50	4	10	1	0	.423	.746	1.169
DAY	MID	.326	52	218	26	71	15	1	7	36	109	7	36	1	1	.343	.500	.843
Minors		.340	67	285	38	97	25	2	11	47	159	11	46	2	1	.362	.558	.920

 

 

Strengths: Soto has an awesome bat that has demonstrated advanced power potential and an ability to drive the ball to all parts of the field with authority.  Soto is an XBH machine, racking up 39 in less than 300 AB.  He makes good contact at the plate and should be able to keep his batting average at around .300 as a pro.

Weaknesses: He is a man without a defensive home right now.  The Reds shifted him from SS to 3B and 1B but his defensive acumen is so-so.  He may need to move to the OF down the road as both Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco have more defensive upside than him at the hot corner.

2009 Outlook: Soto should move to High-A Sarasota in April and, at just 20 years old, there is no reason to rush him to AA.  Keep an eye on where Soto plays defensively.  A move to the OF could open things up for him.

 

9.) Todd Frazier—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DAY	MID	.321	30	112	25	36	10	0	7	20	67	15	28	4	2	.402	.598	1.000
SAR	FSL	.281	100	366	62	103	20	3	12	54	165	41	84	8	4	.357	.451	.808
Minors		.291	130	478	87	139	30	3	19	74	232	56	112	12	6	.368	.485	.853

 

 

Strengths: Frazier’s tall, muscular fram allows for him to hit for excellent power that should translate to 22-28 HR per season at the major league level.  He has a makeup that is off the charts and his desire to be the best player on the field is evidenced in his tireless work ethic.

Weaknesses: Frazier can become overly aggressive at the plate at times, racking up strikeouts.  He, like Soto, has yet to find a defensive home, having played at SS and 1B as well as the hot corner. 

2009 Projection: Frazier continues to the Reds’ new AA affiliate Jacksonville.  Keep track of whree he plays defensively.  If he makes the move to 1B, he may find himself packaged up in a deal to another franchise in the near future.  The Reds are quite set at first with both Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso having more upside than Frazier.

 

10.) Wes Hodges—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Hodges has a smooth swing from the right side that has shown good gap power and the ability to drive in runs.  He has a strong sense of the strike zone and is improving on working counts. 

Weaknesses: Hodges’ defense is still way below average.  His range, glove and arm accuracy still need quite a bit of refinement.  Fortunately for him, there aren’t any other decent 3B prospects in the Indians’ farm system that threaten to push him off of the hot corner, but his sub .900 fielding percentage should not earn him any opportunities at Jacobs Field anytime soon.

2009 Outlook: Hodges should get a full dose of AAA this season with an implicit goal of shoring up his defensive shortcomings.  The Indians traded for Mark DeRosa in the offseason, likely as a one year stop gap to allow Hodges to develop.  Expect him to get a late season call up after the roster expansions in September. 

There’s the first 10 third base prospects.  I am currently working on the next 10 with a goal of getting them online by tomorrow morning sometime.  Feel free to comment on any one of these 10 or to submit your own top ten lists.  If you like what you are reading and are looking to buy cards of any kind, I would be honored if you did so through the eBay afflilate links on my site!

 

 

 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
AKR	EAS	.290	133	504	70	146	29	3	18	97	235	52	105	3	1	.354	.466	.821
Minors		.290	133	504	70	146	29	3	18	97	235	52	105	3	1	.354	.466	.821

 

 

 

 

Top 20 Shortstop Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 10, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

After working on this crop of shortstops, I came to the realization that this bunch is extremely difficult to figure out.  With the exception of a few players, many of the top 20 (and those on the outer fringes of the list) are players whose performances have not yet matched the depth of their tools.  Projectibility is a favorite buzz word in a prospector’s vocabulary, as it indicates an elevated ceiling of potential skills.  However, it also serves as a double edged sword.  Several factors can inhibit a player’s potential; injuries, strike zone judgement, and even poorly run organizaitons (my Mariners case in point).  This list is chock full of projectibility and, odds are that there will be a great deal of movement, both positive and negative, within the ranks throughout the season.  Enjoy the list!

 

1.) Gordon Beckham—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
KAN	SAL	.310	14	58	11	18	2	0	3	8	29	5	7	0	1	.365	.500	.865
Minors		.310	14	58	11	18	2	0	3	8	29	5	7	0	1	.365	.500	.865

 

 

Strengths: Beckham is an extremely polished player with both the bat and glove who has the ability to hit for a high batting average, 20-25 HR power all while playing solid defense at the shortstop position.  He has off the charts makeup and a relentless competitive drive.

Weaknesses: At a demure 6-0 175 lb., there is not much projectivity to Beckham’s athleticism.  His ceiling is not nearly as high as the other Beckham on this list.

2009 Outlook: Gordon opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League when he hit .394 with 3 HR 13 RBI and 20 runs scored in just 18 games.  This should easily allow for him to skip High-A ball altogether and head directly to AA Birmingham to start the season.  A promotion to AAA Charlotte in the making at some point followed by a his MLB debut after rosters expand in September.  Alexei Ramirez is currently slated to play SS this season, but he seems more suited to be a 2B or OF once Beckham is ready. 

 

2.) Elvis Andrus—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
FRI	TEX	.295	118	482	82	142	19	2	4	65	177	38	91	54	16	.350	.367	.717
Minors		.295	118	482	82	142	19	2	4	65	177	38	91	54	16	.350	.367	.717

 

 

Strengths: Explosive top of the lineup speed and a bat that sizzles line drives from gap to gap.  His combination of range, glove, and arm strength makes him a future Gold Glove candidate and potential All-Star.  Several within the organization praise his makeup and leadership skills. 

Weaknesses: Andrus has below average power at this point of his career, though there is promise for more.  His plate discipline is still a bit raw which should allow for major league pitchers to exploit his aggressiveness in the early going.

2009 Outlook: Andrus inadvertantly created a good deal of buzz in the offseason as the organization stated that Michael Young will be shifted over to 3B to make room for Andrus.  He may not be ready yet for the challenge, though his work ethic and competitiveness makes it hard for him to fail for long.  As an insurance policy, the Rangers signed 11-time Gold Glover Omar Vizquel, who should serve as a fine mentor for the Rangers’ future leadoff dynamo.

 

3.) Tim Beckham—Tampa Bay Rays

2008 Stats:  

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
PRI	APP	.243	46	177	30	43	12	0	2	14	61	13	43	5	1	.297	.345	.642
HVR	NYP	.333	2	6	5	2	1	0	0	0	3	2	1	1	0	.556	.500	1.056
Minors		.246	48	183	35	45	13	0	2	14	64	15	44	6	1	.309	.350	.659

 

 

Strengths: Tools…and lots of them.  The ball jumps off of his bat due to his quick swing and surprising strength.  He projectibly can be an 18-22 HR hitter in time and his speed should produce 20-30 SB per season as well.  Defensively, he has all of the tools to be a special playmaker at the shortstop position.  Despite his youth, he has shown a great deal of maturity and exhibits a good feel for the game. 

Weaknesses: He is still quite raw.  His swing has technical flaws that need to be ironed out and his strike zone judgement is still in its early stages of development. 

2009 Outlook: Beckham should get to put his abilities on display at full season Low-A Bowling Green this summer.  He has all the abilities to be a bonafide superstar in the future, but that day currently just a speck on the horizon.  The Rays have a wealth of talent sprinkled throughout their farm system which allows for them to bring Beckham along at a prudent pace.  Once the skills catch up with the tools, Tim Beckham could become baseball’s #1 overall prospect.

4.) Carlos Triunfel—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
HDM	CAL	.287	108	436	75	125	20	4	8	49	177	30	52	30	9	.336	.406	.742
Minors		.287	108	436	75	125	20	4	8	49	177	30	52	30	9	.336	.406	.742

 

 

Strengths: Triunfel has a lively bat that has shown intriguing power potential and high rates of contact.  Triunfel is a very confident player who attacks all phases of his game with a consistent desire to better his skills.  Those that have watched Carlos feel that he will develop into more of a power hitter in the future along the same lines as Miguel Tejada. 

 Weaknesses: Triunfel clashed early in the season with team officials at High Desert about undisclosed issues and was suspended for the early part of the season.  While much of this can be chalked up to youthful indescretions, it is still a matter that is worth monitoring this season.  Triunfel’s thick legs should lose some footspeed and range over time, which makes shortstop only a temporary home.  A change to the hot corner would put additional pressure on him to put up better power numbers.

2009 Outlook: Triunfel has worked dilligently since his suspension to make himself into a more complete player.  He toiled at two separate winter league stops and should get a look this spring before heading to AA West Tennessee in April.  The M’s have been aggressive with Carlos’ development and he has handled every challenge thrown at him with consistently positive results. 

 

5.) Alcides Escobar—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
HUN	SOU	.328	131	546	95	179	24	5	8	76	237	31	82	34	8	.363	.434	.797
Minors		.328	131	546	95	179	24	5	8	76	237	31	82	34	8	.363	.434	.797
MLB		.500	9	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	.500	.500	1.000

 

 

Strengths: Emerging top of the lineup offensive potential with promising gap power.  Escobar has excellent speed that he utilizes well on the bases and in the field.  Defensively, Escobar’s range, hands, and arm strength ranks him as one of the top SS in the minor leagues.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have the HR potential as some of the other players on this list.  Escobar also needs to do a better job of working counts and drawing more walks if he wants to be a leadoff hitter.

2009 Outlook: J.J. Hardy and Rickie Weeks are his biggest obstacles keeping Alcides Escobar from Milwaukee right now.  That should give him ample time to play everyday at AAA Nashville to put the finishing touches on his development.  He will get another opportunity to play with the Brewers or, perhaps, another organization at some point this season.

 

6.) Chris Valaika—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SAR	FSL	.363	32	135	20	49	9	0	7	31	79	7	28	2	0	.393	.585	.978
CHA	SOU	.301	97	379	58	114	19	1	11	50	168	28	74	7	4	.352	.443	.795
Minors		.317	129	514	78	163	28	1	18	81	247	35	102	9	4	.363	.481	.843

 

 

Strengths: Valaika is a good offensive player with a high average bat and power to the alleys that could provide 12-18 HR per season for the Reds.  He is a gritty competitor who is a potential clubhouse leader as well.

Weaknesses: Defensively, his below average range may eventually shift him to second base.  He also needs to continue to work on tightening up his plate discipline as he doesn’t draw many walks.  Valaika has good polish, but isn’t as projectible as other prospects on this list.

2009 Outlook: After playing well in the Arizona Fall League (.311 2 HR 16 RBI 18 runs scored) Valaika will get an opportunity to play with the Reds’ big league camp at spring training before heading to AAA Louisville in April.  The Reds have a glut of depth at shortstop, but none of them have the offensive upside of Chris Valaika.  He should get the call to Cincinnati at some point in the second half of the season.

 

7.) Yamaico Navarro—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
GRE	SAL	.280	83	325	46	91	14	4	7	54	134	29	73	3	2	.341	.412	.753
LNC	CAL	.348	42	181	33	63	13	2	4	23	92	12	30	3	2	.393	.508	.901
Minors		.304	125	506	79	154	27	6	11	77	226	41	103	6	4	.359	.447	.806

 

 

Strengths: Navarro’s offensive game made great strides last year as he demonstrated good line drive power that could produce 12-15 HR per season at the major league level.  He is strong for his size and is an adept fielder.  Yamaico plays with a high level of energy and has a penchant for making dazzling plays.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have enough power to be a middle of the order run producer, nor enough speed to be a prototypical leadoff hitter.  Yamiaco needs to keep refining his approach at the plate to significantly cut back on his K totals.  If he doesn’t, he will get eaten alive by more advanced pitchers.

2009 Outlook: AA Portland will privide a monumental challenge for Navarro.  His ’08 season helped to vault him to the top of Boston’s organizational chart at SS, but there are several intriguing prospects (Oscar Tejeda, Argenis Diaz, Casey Kelly) who could potentially knock him down a peg or two.  Navarro will have to prove that his offensive breakthrough is more than a California League-induced aberration.

 

8.) Ivan DeJesus Jr.—Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 Stats:

 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
JAX	SOU	.324	128	463	91	150	21	2	7	58	196	76	81	16	2	.419	.423	.843
Minors		.324	128	463	91	150	21	2	7	58	196	76	81	16	2	.419	.423	.843

 

 

Strengths: DeJesus has remarkable plate discipline for someone of his age and his quick bat produces line drives all over the field.  Ivan Jr. has above average speed that he uses on the bases wisely.  Defensively he has demonstrated good agility and fluidity.  Plus, his arm strength is just a tick above average which helps his chances as a SS.

Weaknesses: DeJesus has more power than his dad did, but he still will be hard pressed to crack double digits in HR’s at the major league level.  Despite his good defensive tools, DeJesus still makes quite a few errors, which may be due to lapses in focus on routine plays. 

2009 Outlook: DeJesus has worked hard at a couple of fall and winter league destinations this offseason.  He should get a long look by the Dodgers before reporting to AAA Albequerqe.  The Dodgers just re-signed Rafael Furcal to a three year contract which makes things more complicated for DeJesus.  Second base may be a better option though, as Blake DeWitt and veteran Mark Loretta offer far less formidable competition.  Expect DeJesus to make his Chavez Ravine debut in the second half of ‘09.

 

9.) Reid Brignac—Tampa Bay Rays

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUR	INT	.250	97	352	43	88	26	2	9	43	145	25	93	5	2	.299	.412	.711
Minors		.250	97	352	43	88	26	2	9	43	145	25	93	5	2	.299	.412	.711
MLB		.000	4	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	.091	.000	.091

 

 

Strengths: Once a defensive liability, Brignac has worked dilligently to become one of the most reliable fielding shortstops in the minor leagues.  His 6-3 180 lb. frame offers promising power potential as it matures.

Weaknesses: As Reid’s defensive skills have improved, his offensive production has regressed.  He struggled last season to control the strike zone and his power output has decreased in each of the past three seasons.  Brignac’s size offers intriguing offensive potential, but as it grows, his range could diminish as well. 

2009 Outlook: Jason Bartlett’s excellent performance in the second half of the ‘08 season gives Brignac a little more time to work things out at AAA Durham.  He needs it.  Expect Reid to earn a call up at some point ’09 with hopefully better results.  Brignac’s long term future with the Rays is tenuous as Tim Beckham is assuredly the shortstop of the future in Tampa.  However, if Reid can distinguish himself over the next season and a half, there is still a chance that he can be a solid player either with the Rays or another organiztion.

 

10.) Oscar Tejeda—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats: 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
GRE	SAL	.261	97	372	44	97	18	1	4	38	129	20	76	11	5	.301	.347	.647
Minors		.261	97	372	44	97	18	1	4	38	129	20	76	11	5	.301	.347	.647

 

 

 

Strengths: Tejeda has a lean and athletic body that oozes tools and projection.  His quick bat makes solid contact that produces line drives with potential power output down the road.  He has also been praised for his good makeup and baseball IQ.

 Weaknesses: He has good defensive tools but has not harnessed footwork and throwing mechanics.  This makes him error prone and may force a position switch at some point.  His power is merely a projection right now, and the ceiling is likely limited to 10-15 HR per year.  He has good speed, but has yet to figure out how to use it as a weapon on the basepaths.

2009 Outlook: Tejeda was surpassed by Yamaico Navarro on organization’s depth chart.  He has the youth and abilty to reclaim the top spot and some success at High-A Salem should help with that process.

 

11.) Pete Kozma—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
QC	MID	.284	99	377	58	107	20	4	5	40	150	45	69	12	5	.363	.398	.760
PBC	FSL	.130	24	77	4	10	4	0	0	10	14	10	27	0	1	.231	.182	.413
Minors		.258	123	454	62	117	24	4	5	50	164	55	96	12	6	.340	.361	.701

 

 

Strengths: Pete has the complete package of skills suitable to becoming an MLB shortstop.  He has solid average to above average defensive tools and advanced instincts for a prospect his age.  His better tools are seen in his offensive game.  Kozma has a fundamentally sound swing that hits more line drives right now, but could develop power with some fine tuning.  He also shows a willingness to work at bats for walks and once he is on base, he uses his above average speed with savvy and discipline.  He is a gamer who works tirelessly to make himself a better baseball player.

Weaknesses: His ceiling is a little difficult to determine.  Some who have seen Kozma play feel that he could be an every day shortstop, others feel that he may develop as a utility-type player.  His blend of skills are good, but nothing stands out as being “spectacular”.  He needs to cut back on his K’s and continue to work on driving the ball with authority.

2008 Outlook: Kozma will begin back at High-A Palm Beach in April.  The Cardinals are quite thin at the shortstop position

 

12.) Cale Iorg—Detroit Tigers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAK	FSL	.251	99	383	61	96	15	7	10	47	155	35	111	22	11	.329	.405	.734
Minors		.251	99	383	61	96	15	7	10	47	155	35	111	22	11	.329	.405	.734

 

 

Strengths: Iorg demonstrated a wide assortment of above average tools in his first full season.  His 6-2 180 lb. frame has good athleticism and budding power potential.  He can probably hit between 15-20 HR per season with regularity and his baserunning skills could produce the same amount of stolen bases.  Defensively, Iorg showed good range and a strong throwing arm that should make him a defensive asset in the six-hole.

Weaknesses: Iorg missed a season doing missionary work in Portugal.  At age 23, he is a little less refined than other prospects his age, though he made up ground quickly in ‘08.  His plate discpline is a major impediment that hampers his ability to hit for a higher batting average.  Also, his numbers waned as the season progressed, perhaps due to the shoulder strain that kept him sidelined for a while.

2009 Outlook: Tigers’ GM Dave Dombroski is quite optimistic that Iorg can be the team’s regular shortstop in a short period of time.  Iorg will get the opportunity to prove him right at AA Erie.  It sounds like Detroit would like to place him on the fast track.  Don’t be surprised to see him earn a promotion to AAA at some point if Iorg progresses as Dombroski hopes.  He is conservatively ranked on this list and, odds are, he will not be this low come next season.

 

 

 

 

13.) Justin Jackson—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAN	MID	.238	121	454	74	108	26	6	7	47	167	62	154	17	8	.340	.368	.708
Minors		.238	121	454	74	108	26	6	7	47	167	62	154	17	8	.340	.368	.708

 

Strengths: There is a ton of projectibility wrapped up in this 6-2 190 lb. package.  Jackson showed an ability to hit for good XBH power that could start clearing more fences as he matures.  He has good speed once he gets moving, which allows for him to run bases well and turn doubles into triples.  He has good defensive tools highlighted by a cannon-like arm that was clocked at 93 MPH as a high school senior.

Weaknesses: Jackson is overly aggressive at the plate which allows for him to rack up strikeouts in copious amounts and leaves him vulnerable to slumps at the plate.  His power is merely a projection at this point and his baserunning speed doesn’t produce high SB totals. 

2009 Outlook: Jackson’s struggles in ‘08 shouldn’t keep him from moving up to High-A Dunedin this spring.  The Blue Jays aggressively drafted young, high-upside offensive talents in the ‘07 draft, signalling an impending youth movement in Toronto over the next couple of seasons.  Expect Jackson to be amongst the masses taking the field in Rogers Centre within the next three seasons.

 

14.) Lonnie Chisenhall—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
MVS	NYP	.290	68	276	38	80	20	3	5	45	121	24	32	7	2	.355	.438	.794
Minors		.290	68	276	38	80	20	3	5	45	121	24	32	7	2	.355	.438	.794

 

 

 

Strengths: His bat is highly advanced for someone of his age, producing above average power with the ability to hit for a high batting average as well.  Chisenhall has a good feel for the strike zone and makes effective use of his marginal speed by intelligently running the bases.

Weaknesses: Off the field incidents ended Chisenhall’s career at the University of South Carolina as he was arrested for burglary and grand larceny.  He has seemingly moved beyond these but they still bear watching.  Additionally, his slow foot speed and thick frame fits better at 3B where his offensive numbers become more marginal.

2009 Outlook: Last season’s fine performance at short season Mahoning Valley should carry forward at full season Low-A ball this year.  Chisenhall will have to make the shift to 3B soon, but his offensive upside should allow for him to play anywhere.

 

15.) Carlos Rivero—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
KIN	CAR	.282	108	411	46	116	27	1	8	64	169	36	84	1	2	.342	.411	.753
Minors		.282	108	411	46	116	27	1	8	64	169	36	84	1	2	.342	.411	.753

 

 

Strengths: At 6-3 210 lb., Rivero is an imposing well built SS in the mold of Cal Ripken Jr. and (ahem) Alex Rodriguez.  Rivero caught fire in August batting .356 with 4 HR and 21 RBI.  His fluid swing and quck hands has the potential to produce excellent power numbers that could surpass 20 HR per season at the major league level.  He has shown soft hands and a strong arm as well.

Weaknesses: Rivero may very well outgrow the SS position.  His substandard footspeed has already affected his range and there is plenty of reason to believe that he is not done growing.  At the plate, Rivero makes good contact but is prone to swinging at pitches out of the zone early in the count, limiting his walk totals.  The promise of power to come is merely projection at this point.

2009 Outlook: Shortstop will probably not be Rivero’s future position, but the Indians are allowing him the opportunity to play himself out of the position.  Right now, the numbers that he puts up defensively are average.  He will progress to AA Akron this season and that should prove to be a monumental challenge for him that he may not be prepared to undertake.  Don’t be surprised to see him back at Kinston if he struggles in the early going.

 

16.) Jonathan Galvez—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats: 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DSL PAD	DSL	.272	54	162	31	44	5	1	3	31	60	47	40	8	1	.449	.370	.819
Minors		.272	54	162	31	44	5	1	3	31	60	47	40	8	1	.449	.370	.819

 

 

 

 

 

Strengths: Galvez has a wide assortment of tools wrapped up in an athletic 6-2 175 lb. frame.  His quick right-handed swing has good leverage that should produce more HR power in future seasons.  More intriguing is his patience at the plate.  He makes good contact with balls in the strike zone and has shown an advanced ability to recognize offspeed pitches.  His foot speed is also an asset that he utilizes on the basepaths and in the field.

Weaknesses: Galvez struggled mightlily in July (.153 0 HR 9 RBI) and reports stated that the young SS put a great deal of pressure on himself, especially with runners in scoring position.  Galvez’s excellent performance happened in the Dominican Summer League and it remains to be seen how that will carry over to Low-A ball.

2009 Outlook: Galvez will only be 18 years old when the 2009 season begins which means that another dose of short season ball (probably with Eugene) looks to be in the cards.  If he continues to sustain his excellent rate of progress, he should be promoted to Fort Wayne and to the upper half of this list as well.

 

17.) Devaris Strange-Gordon—Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 Stats:

 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
OGD	PIO	.331	60	251	45	83	13	3	2	27	108	16	29	18	5	.371	.430	.802
Minors		.331	60	251	45	83	13	3	2	27	108	16	29	18	5	.371	.430	.802

 

 

Strengths: Devaris Gordon may have to borrow his dad’s nickname “Flash” for awhile.  He is fast….really fast.  Gordon time of 6.35 seconds in the 60 yard dash makes him, hands down, the fastest player in the Dodgers organization.  His bat sprays line drives all over the field and his excellent hand-eye coordination makes him a difficult man to strike out.  Defensively, his range is almost limitless and his glove and arm strength seems to be adaquate for the position.

Weaknesses: LIke his dad, Tom, Devaris is slight of build and should never crack double digits in HR totals.  He needs to learn to work counts more effectively for walks in order to fulfill his potential as a leadoff hitter.  His speed could be used as a lethal weapon on the basepaths, but he needs to continue to hone his abilities to read pitchers’ pickoff moves.  Having Juan Pierre in the Dodgers’ system as a potential mentor couldn’t hurt.

2009 Outlook: His impressive numbers at Ogden will be challenged at Low-A Great Lakes this season.  Gordon has the electrifying speed and bat to be an elite top of the order prospect within the next couple of seasons.  His time under the radar won’t last long.

 

 

18.) P.J. Phillips—Los Angeles Angels

 

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
RCQ	CAL	.276	130	485	68	134	22	11	8	55	202	24	125	35	9	.313	.416	.729
Minors		.276	130	485	68	134	22	11	8	55	202	24	125	35	9	.313	.416	.729

 

 

Strengths: There is no shortage of projectible athleticism in Brandon Phillips’ younger brother’s game.  At 6-3 170 lbs., P.J. has top notch speed and sinewy strength that could make him a 20/20 candidate as a major leaguer.  Phillips was red hot over the second half of the season batting .315 with 6 HR 25 RBI 18 SB and 39 runs scored. 

Weaknesses: There is still a great deal of rawness and sloppy technique in Phillips’ game.  His plate discipline is nothing short of abysmal and his glove work in the field (37 errors) is quite sloppy.  P.J. may make a move to the outfield in the future.

2009 Outlook: The challenge for P.J. will be to continue his late season success at his new destination of AA Arkansas.  This year should give a better bearing on where Phillips’ skills truly are.  If he can refine his approach at the plate and shore up his defense at shortstop, he would assuredly improve his stock on this list significantly.  His brother was a late bloomer.  Perhaps, P.J. will be as well.

 

19.) Chris Nelson—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
MOD	CAL	.167	8	30	2	5	1	0	1	5	9	2	8	0	2	.219	.300	.519
TUL	TEX	.237	73	283	38	67	18	2	3	42	98	35	69	6	1	.324	.346	.670
Minors		.230	81	313	40	72	19	2	4	47	107	37	77	6	3	.315	.342	.657

 

 

Strengths: His bat speed and leverage gives Nelson power potential that exceeds the perceived potential of his 5-11 175 lb. frame.  Nelson’s sterling performance in the AFL (.321 6 HR 17 RBI 22 runs scored) not only revived hopes in his abilities as a prospect but showed that he has made strides in improving his plate discipline.  When healthy, Nelson has the speed to steal 15-20 bases per season at the major league level.

Weaknesses: Nelson’s development has been Jekyll and Hyde throughout his career.  Last season’s numbers were mitigated severely by injuries to his hammate bone and hamstring, which makes his overall health in 2009 worth watching.  Defensively, he is below average, and his skills may be better suited for the outfield.  If he is forced to move, his value takes an immediate hit, especially in an organization with the depth of talent that Colorado has.

2009 Outlook: 2008 was a lost season for Nelson, but he showed a lot by coming back and performing so well in Arizona.  He has been included on Colorado’s 40 man roster which means that he should get a good dose of playing time during spring training.  If he continues his success, Nelson should move to AAA Colorado Springs in April.  If he struggles, he may go back to Tulsa to work things out.  Nelson seems like he has been around forever, but he is still just 23 and the potential for him to be an offensive force in a major league lineup makes him a prime sleeper for 2009.

 

 

20.) Jason Christian—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
VAN	NOR	.291	62	213	27	62	16	1	4	24	92	39	65	13	1	.404	.432	.836
KCC	MID	.320	6	25	3	8	1	0	0	1	9	0	8	0	0	.320	.360	.680
Minors		.294	68	238	30	70	17	1	4	25	101	39	73	13	1	.396	.424	.821

 

 

Strengths: Christian is a big shortstop that has plenty of room to fill out in his 6-3 170 lb. frame.   He has shwon an ability to drive in runs and hit balls hard for good gap power.  Given his quick swing and fluidity, it is conceivable that he could develop above average power down the line.  His smoothness and strong, accurate arm reminds some scouts of fellow Athletic Bobby Crosby.  He is an intelligent player who showed a willingness to work at a variety of postions.

Weaknesses: Jason abandoned his solid plate discipline that he exhibited in his three seasons as a Michigan Wolverine.  He drew several walks, but his strikeout totals were quite a bit higher than expected.  Christian’s swing gets long at time, which leaves him prone to being exploited by advanced pitchers, especially on pitches in on the hands.

2009 Outlook: Christian has the looks of a 5th round steal.  His blend of skills and left-handed bat makes him a highly intriguing prospect for the 2009 season.  He should begin the season at either Low-A Kane County again or, perhaps, at High-A Stockton.  Either way, his ranking on this list is probably way too low and, with Oakland’s dearth of viable shortstop talent, his track to the major leagues could move quickly. 

 

 Ok, I can’t count…here’s a bonus addition to the list.

21.)  Brandon Hicks—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats: 

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
MIS	SOU	.241	16	54	9	13	3	1	1	7	21	7	17	0	0	.333	.389	.722
MYR	CAR	.234	93	342	68	80	23	2	19	56	164	45	122	14	3	.335	.480	.815
Minors		.235	109	396	77	93	26	3	20	63	185	52	139	14	3	.335	.467	.802

 

 

 

Strengths: Power and lots of it.  Hicks is well built with a right handed swing that produces fence clearing power from foul pole to foul pole.  His sure hands and strong arm make him an above average defensive player as well.  Despite his thick 6-2 200 lb. frame, Hicks possesses excellent speed that he uses well on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: Strikeouts and lots of them.  Hicks has a high leg kick (see picture above) that occasionally throws off his timing and creates holes in his swing.  Hicks’ all or nothinig approach at the plate does not always serve him well in situations limits most of his production to the left side of the field, mitigating his batting average and run production. 

2009 Outlook: AA will be a big transition for Hicks.  He needs to cut back on his swing or he will be eaten alive and likely booted off of this list.  If he can refine his plate discipline, however, he has the potential to be the top power hitting shortstop in the minor leagues.  What he does with his swing will dictate whether he moves up this list or off of it.

Others to consider: Hector Gomez, Tyler Greene, Juan Silverio, Ehire Adrianza, Niko Vasquez, Andrew Romine, Argenis Diaz, Casey Kelly (his potential future as a pitcher keeps him off of this list). 

OOF!  That list took a long time to complete.  I ran into some formatting nightmares that gobbled up way too much time that I could have dedicated to our next list.  Let me know your thoughts about this list.  The bottom half of it was especially difficult as many of the prospects featured similar skills.  Overall, I think there is a lot of upside to this list that has yet to be fully discovered.  2009 should be a fun season!

Top 20 Second Base Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 5, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

When I started brainstorming this list, I thought that it would be full of stinkers.  Second basemen have historically been nothing more than mediocre infield prospects who couldn’t cut it on the left side of the infield.  However, players like Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, and others have ushered dwellers of the 4-hole to a more respected place amongst the skill positions.  The headliner of this list is Philadelphia Phillies prospect Jason Donald, who has yet to play a professional game at 2B.  However, his expected Opening Day nod in place of the injured Mr. Utley lends credence to his inclusion on this list.

 

1.) Jason Donald—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
REA	EAS	.307	92	362	57	111	19	4	14	54	180	47	86	11	2	.391	.497	.889
Minors		.307	92	362	57	111	19	4	14	54	180	47	86	11	2	.391	.497	.889

 

Strengths: Donald has a well rounded set of polished skills that are major league ready.  His leadership, baseball instincts, and work ethic are highly lauded within the organization.

Weaknesses: None of his tangible skills stand out as being above average.  Defensively, Donald can play several infield positions, but he doesn’t dazzle at any one of them.

2009 Outlook: Utley has stated publicly that he expects to be ready for opening day which, if true, will push Donald either over to 3B in place of the injured Pedro Feliz or to AAA Ottawa for some more seasoning.  Donald’s leadership and all out efforts will be well appreciated in the city of brotherly love and could propel this former Arizona Wildcat to become a sentimental fan favorite…at least until he gets traded…or suffers an 0-20 slump.

 

2.) Chris Coghlan—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CAR	SOU	.298	132	483	83	144	32	5	7	74	207	67	65	34	10	.396	.429	.825
Minors		.298	132	483	83	144	32	5	7	74	207	67	65	34	10	.396	.429	.825

 

Strengths: His tireless competitive drive and sound fundamental skills allow for him to put up good numbers in a variety of categories.  Coghlan has excellent plate discipline and a line drive bat that could hit for a high average at the major league level.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have great range defensively, and his power tends to hit gaps rather than seats. 

2009 Outlook: Coghlan’s future is directly correlated with the destiny of current Marlin 2B Dan Uggla.  There have been rumors swirling in the offseason that Florida is looking to trade Uggla, but nothing substantial has materialized yet.  Coghlan, in the meanwhile, will continue to polish off his development at AAA Albequerqe until room is made for him on the big league roster.

 

3.) Sean Rodriguez—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SLC	PCL	.306	66	248	68	76	19	1	21	52	160	29	45	4	1	.397	.645	1.042
Minors		.306	66	248	68	76	19	1	21	52	160	29	45	4	1	.397	.645	1.042
MLB		.204	59	167	18	34	8	1	3	10	53	14	55	3	1	.276	.317	.593

 

Strengths: Sean-Rod has intriguing power potential that could translate to at least 20-25 HR per season with the Angels.  Defensively, he has a strong arm, a quick first step and soft hands that should make him an above average fielder.

Weaknesses: Rodriguez left his plate discipline in Salt Lake City after his promotion to L.A.  A disciplined hitter at AAA, Sean became over-agressive at L.A.  Also, his bulky build (6-1 215 lb.) is great for power potential, but should have an adverse effect on his range and athleticism as he ages.

2009 Outlook: Rodriguez is currently blocked by Howie Kendrick at 2B, but Kendrick has failed to complete any of his first three seasons without missing substantial time with injuries.  Rodriguez’s powerful bat is close to ready and the Angels may want to consider giving Sean some reps in the OF to increase their options.  Vlad Guerrero is rapidly losing his athleticism and Juan Rivera has a laundry list of injury woes as well.  Rodriguez turns 24 in April and the best from him is yet to come.

 

4.) Eric Young Jr.—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
TUL	TEX	.290	105	403	74	117	24	4	3	33	158	61	77	46	16	.391	.392	.784
Minors		.290	105	403	74	117	24	4	3	33	158	61	77	46	16	.391	.392	.784

 

Strengths: World class speed and excellent lead off skills make the junior version of Eric Young a potentially better player than his father.  Young also turned in an MVP performance in the ‘08 Arizona Fall League adding surprising power to his game, hitting 5 HR in just 100 AB.

Weaknesses: Second base may be a temporary home for Young as his glove and footwork are below average.  His power spike in the AFL, while encouraging, may not carry forward to Colorado.

2009 Outlook: If he is able to stay at 2B, his chances of staying in Colorado are much better.  The Rockies are loaded with good young outfielders and Young’s offensive upside is quite a bit better than current second baseman Clint Barmes.  Watch Young’s performance at AAA Colorado Springs to see if the power carries forward and the defense improves. 

 

5.) Eric Sogard—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAK	CAL	.308	133	536	97	165	42	3	10	87	243	79	62	16	7	.394	.453	.847
Minors		.308	133	536	97	165	42	3	10	87	243	79	62	16	7	.394	.453	.847

 

Strengths: Much like Coghlan, Sogard has a well rounded set of polished skills that, when matched with his work ethic and competitive drive, allows him to put up big numbers across the board.  Sogard has surprising pop for someone his size and has a knack for driving in clutch runs.  His plate disicpline and high contact rates makes him a solid top of the lineup hitter.

Weaknesses: Sogard has average athleticism and speed which could serve as a minor detriment to his defensive range and quickness on the basepaths in future seasons.

2009 Outlook: Sogard will look to demonstrate that his gaudy stats at Lake Elsinore were not a California League aberration.  His skill set, both tangible and intangible, closely resembles that of 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.  By this time next season, Sogard could easily be #1 on this list.

 

6.) Nick Noonan—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
AUG	SAL	.279	119	499	79	139	27	7	9	68	207	23	98	29	4	.315	.415	.730
Minors		.279	119	499	79	139	27	7	9	68	207	23	98	29	4	.315	.415	.730

 

Strengths: His athletic and projectible frame should build more strength as it matures.  Noonan hit a combined 34 doubles and triples to go with his seven HR.  This leads me to believe that he can develop into a 12-18 HR hitter in the future.  Noonan has an advanced mental approach both offensively and defensively and he utilizes his speed well on the basepaths.  He should be a leadoff or #2 hitter at the major league level.

Weaknesses: Noonan needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition.  He tends to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, limiting his batting average totals and on base opportunities.

2009 Projection: High-A San Jose is his April destination and Noonan has the opportunity to put up some big numbers there.  He is part of a highly talented youth movement that includes the likes of Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, and Tim Alderson.  Look out for this Giants franchise in the next 3-5 seasons!

7.) Jose Vallejo—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
BAK	CAL	.287	75	310	48	89	14	2	9	50	134	26	46	27	3	.349	.432	.781
FRI	TEX	.297	64	259	34	77	15	2	2	31	102	15	45	15	1	.341	.394	.734
Minors		.292	139	569	82	166	29	4	11	81	236	41	91	42	4	.345	.415	.760

Strengths: Lethal top of the order speed and high efficiency on the basepaths.  Vallejo was successful on 94% of his stolen bag attempts (89 of 96) over the last two seasons.  His bat produces sizzling line drives from both sides of the plate and he showed a big spike in XBH power at both High-A and AA last season.  Defensively, Vallejo has good range and a strong arm that should make him an above average fielder.

Weaknesses:  Vallejo’s increase in power came at two environments that tend to surrender inflated offensive numbers.  Is the power spike for real?  Also, Jose needs to trim up his BB/K ratio.  Turning 15-20 of those strikeouts into walks could make him a top of the order hitter.

2009 Outlook: Vallejo may be a victim of circumstance.  Ian Kinsler has emerged as a perennial All-Star and his tenure in Texas looks to be a long one.  However, the Rangers are on the cusp of being a bonafide contender in the AL West and Vallejo could find himself being shipped to another organization in a package deal for more pitching depth.  Jose will increase his stock if he can demonstrate that the power increase is real.  He’ll get a chance to do that at AA Frisco this year.

 

8.) Adrian Cardenas—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CLE	FSL	.307	68	261	44	80	11	6	4	23	115	28	42	16	0	.371	.441	.812
STO	CAL	.278	15	72	11	20	1	0	1	10	24	1	14	1	0	.297	.333	.631
MID	TEX	.279	26	86	12	24	4	0	0	7	28	15	10	0	1	.392	.326	.718
Minors		.296	109	419	67	124	16	6	5	40	167	44	66	17	1	.364	.399	.763

 

Strengths: Adrian has a smooth left-handed swing that should develop 15-20 HR power and a high batting average as he matures.  He makes good contact at the plate and has good plate discipline.  Cardenas has average athleticism and speed, but he uses what he has efficiently.

Weaknesses: He has a thick torso and legs that should get slower as he ages.  He may eventually end up at 3B which would make his power potential a touch below average. 

2009 Outlook: Adrian should start the season back at AA Midland.  This should give the 21 year old a chance to develop his power numbers a little more.  Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez are under contract through at least 2010, which should give Cardenas more than enough time to refine his skills.

 

9.) Matt Antonelli—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

2008 Season
Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
POR	PCL	.215	128	451	62	97	19	4	7	39	145	76	86	6	4	.335	.322	.657
Minors		.215	128	451	62	97	19	4	7	39	145	76	86	6	4	.335	.322	.657
MLB		.193	21	57	6	11	2	0	1	3	16	5	11	0	0	.292	.281	.573

 

Strengths: Antonelli plays at full throttle at all times.  He has a strong, athletic body that could produce 20 HR/20 SB seasons.  Matt grinds out AB’s and works deep into counts which helps boost his walk totals and on base percentage.

Weaknesses: What happened in 2008?  Antonelli’s precipitous drop off is a little concerning as the usual culprits (injuries or breakdowns in plate discipline) were not factors.  He has solid athleticism now but, like Cardenas, he has a thick build that could lose speed and athleticism as he gets older.

2009 Outlook: Antonelli may have been a victim of bad luck in 2008.  Expect his numbers to rebound to a level that is in between his stellar ‘07 season and his lack luster ‘08.  The Padres currently list Edgar Gonzalez and Luis Rodriguez ahead of Antonelli on their depth chart, but a big spring could well change all of that.  Otherwise, Matt will start the season at AAA Portland and earn a call up at some point soon after Opening Day.

 

10.) Ryan Mount—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
RCQ	CAL	.290	82	338	68	98	17	5	16	49	173	23	67	10	2	.337	.512	.849
Minors		.290	82	338	68	98	17	5	16	49	173	23	67	10	2	.337	.512	.849

 

Strengths: Big time raw power.  Mount blasted 14 of his 16 HR’s over the final two months of the season.  His frame is continuing to develop and the promise for more power is intriguing.  He makes good contact at the plate and can steal the occasional bag as well.

Weaknesses: Nagging injuries, especially in his legs, has slowed his development and probably will diminish his athleticism as he ages.  Mount already has fringe average range at 2B and his glovework was not awe inspiring.  Mount needs to continue to work on raising his walk totals as advanced pitchers will exploit his aggressiveness.

2009 Outlook: Mount has been preliminarily placed on Salt Lake City’s roster, which seems a tad aggressive given his limited exposure at lower levels.  If Mount can stay healthy, his offensive upside is as good as Sean Rodriguez’s.  His heavy legs may force him to move to 3B down the road.

 

11.) Jemile Weeks-Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
KCC	MID	.297	19	74	11	22	3	1	1	8	30	13	12	6	2	.422	.405	.828
Minors		.297	19	74	11	22	3	1	1	8	30	13	12	6	2	.422	.405	.828

 

 

Strengths: Weeks is a prototypical leadoff hitter with elite speed, excellent plate discipline, and a line drive bat.  Weeks makes good contact with most everything he swings at and has good defensive range.

Weaknesses: His other defensive skills are below average which means that a shift to the OF may happen soon.  Weeks doesn’t have near as much power as his older brother Rickie.

2009 Outlook: Weeks should play at High-A Stockton to start the season.  Given that he has extensive collegiate experience, a performance based promotion to AA Midland is not at all out of the question.  The A’s have been devoid of speedy, top of the order guys in their farm system for years.  Jemile has a good chance to buck that trend within the next 2-3 seasons.

12.) Chih-Hsien Chiang—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

2008 Season
Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LNC	CAL	.303	83	320	47	97	19	2	9	59	147	18	52	2	1	.337	.459	.797
Minors		.303	83	320	47	97	19	2	9	59	147	18	52	2	1	.337	.459	.797

 

Strengths: His bat is the real deal.  Chiang has a long, agile frame that should be able to hit for more power without sacrificing his good batting average.  The Taiwanese prospect makes good contact at the plate and is aggressive with pitches in the strike zone.

Weaknesses: Chiang is not a good defensive player.  He worked out in the Fall Instructional League as an OF, which means that a position change could happen as soon as this spring.  Chiang is not a weapon on the basepaths either. 

2009 Outlook: AA Portland well be a challenge for Chiang.  Watch to see how his power and defense progresses.  With his big frame, he has the potential to be a 15-20 HR hitter within the next season or two.

 

13.) L.J. Hoes—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
ORI	GCL	.308	48	159	36	49	4	3	1	18	62	30	22	10	0	.416	.390	.806
Minors		.308	48	159	36	49	4	3	1	18	62	30	22	10	0	.416	.390	.806

 

Strengths: Hoes has an impressive assortment of tools.  His sinewy 6-1 185 lb. frame should build good power as he matures and his speed is well above average.  Many young hitters struggle with their plate discipline coming out of HS, but Hoes’ 30 BB/22 K ratio is nothing short of awesome.  Hoes also has a hose for an arm, being clocked at 95 MPH in high school.  He is said to be a good teammate with a tremendous work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: Right now, it has to be experience, especially at 2B.  Hoes was an outfielder in high school and has only recently made the transition to the infield.  There is promise that he will develop good power, but it is really too early to tell for sure.

2009 Outlook: There is a lot to like in this youngster and his ranking may be a bit conservative at this time.  He should get a shot at full season ball with Delmarva this spring.  That should give us all a better feel for just how good this Maryland native could someday be.

 

14.) Luis Valbuena—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
WTN	SOU	.304	70	240	43	73	12	2	9	40	116	31	37	8	4	.381	.483	.864
TAC	PCL	.302	58	212	41	64	9	0	2	20	79	28	32	10	4	.383	.373	.756
Minors		.303	128	452	84	137	21	2	11	60	195	59	69	18	8	.382	.431	.813
MLB		.245	18	49	6	12	5	0	0	1	17	4	11	0	0	.315	.347	.662

 

Strengths: Valbuena has a nice left-handed swing that produces decent power to the gaps and line drives to all fields.  His BB/K ratio improved significantly in ‘08 and he has the speed to steal double digit bags at the major league level.  Defensively, Valbuena has good range and consistently makes plays and limits his error totals.

Weaknesses: The offensive skills are good but not great.  Valbuena’s ceiling is limited to being a solid, middle of the road second baseman with better than average defensive skills.  While this is not necessarily bad, it won’t propel him into the upper echelon of this list.

2009 Outlook: Luis’ skill set is major league ready, but he must first find a way to distinguish himself from the other 2nd basemen on Cleveland’s roster.  His best chance to do that will be this spring.  If he can hit for the power that he displayed in the Venezuelan Winter League (.291 5 HR 20 RBI), there is a possibility that he could make the Tribe’s 25 man roster.  Otherwise, he will head to AAA Columbus to play every day and wait for an opportunity.

 

15.) Ryan Adams—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DEL	SAL	.308	119	448	68	138	26	5	11	57	207	36	109	12	5	.367	.462	.829
Minors		.308	119	448	68	138	26	5	11	57	207	36	109	12	5	.367	.462	.829

 

Strengths: Adams has gap power and a strong, athletic frame.  His speed is a tick above average which plays well on the basepaths.  His arm strength is very good which opens his options to play at several positions.

Weaknesses: A change to another position might be a good move.  Adams was awful defensively, making 46 errors at 2B.  He also needs to become a more disciplined hitter.   Last year, Ryan walked just 36 times while punching out 109 times.

2009 Outlook:  There are plenty of things to like in Adam’s bat, but his skills need a great deal of refining.  he will start the ‘09 season at High-A Frederick.  Keep an eye on where he ends up defensively.  It is quite possible that this will be his only appearance on this list.

 

16.) David Adams—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
STA	NYP	.257	67	257	45	66	19	2	4	31	101	32	57	8	2	.350	.393	.743
Minors		.257	67	257	45	66	19	2	4	31	101	32	57	8	2	.350	.393	.743

 

Strengths: This former Virginia Cavalier has a big strong frame but still is nimble enough to be a decent middle infielder a la Jeff Kent.  Adams has the potential to hit for good power numbers and he is deceptively quick.  He is a hard-nosed player with an agressive drive to succeed.

Weaknesses: His size may get in his way as he ages.  He does have a strong enough arm to play 3B, but a move to the hot corner makes his 18-22 HR potential less alluring.

2008 Outlook: Adams will get to start at Low-A Charleston, but any sustained level of success there should earn him a promotion to Tampa.  He should take a good 2-3 seasons to develop, which should give the Yankees ample time to see if he can eventually fill the shoes of All-Star 2B Robinson Cano.

 

17.) Chris Getz—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CHA	INT	.302	111	404	60	122	24	1	11	52	181	41	53	11	4	.366	.448	.814
Minors		.302	111	404	60	122	24	1	11	52	181	41	53	11	4	.366	.448	.814
MLB		.286	10	7	2	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	1	.286	.286	.571

 

Strengths: Getz is a scrappy player with a line drive bat and solid plate discipline.  He has good defensive instincts and gets the most out of his average speed on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: He has a gaggle of fringe average tools.  He gets the most out of his abilities, but there aren’t many things in his game that makes him a standout player.  Getz is one of those role players that will always be looking over his shoulder for the bigger, better prospect waiting to unseat him.

2009 Outlook: Chris is at the top of the White Sox depth chart at second base.  He should get every opportunity to keep that position but, as stated earlier, his margin for error is finite.

 

18.) John Tolisano—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAN	MID	.229	120	432	64	99	20	8	6	47	153	56	110	5	2	.315	.354	.669
Minors		.229	120	432	64	99	20	8	6	47	153	56	110	5	2	.315	.354	.669

 

Strengths: Tolisano has built his strength over the last couple of years providing a quicker and more leveraged swing that should provide 15-20 HR power in time.  He has a very strong arm and decent enough range to stick at 2B. 

Weaknesses: He strikes out way too much.  His aggressiveness leads him to swing at pitches out of the zone and to fail to recognize off speed offerings.  His added bulk has made him a touch slower on the basepaths and could cause him to lose a step in the field.

2009 Outlook: Tolisano had a big time drop off in the second half of last season at Low-A Lansing.  He may find himself back there initially in 2009 to work out some issues at the plate.  The Blue Jays are quite optimistic about his future, but his skills will take a good deal of time and patience to fully develop.

 

19.) Eric Farris—Milwuakee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
WVA	SAL	.293	103	454	73	133	21	4	3	54	171	24	50	32	10	.332	.377	.709
Minors		.293	103	454	73	133	21	4	3	54	171	24	50	32	10	.332	.377	.709

Strengths: Farris has blazing speed and a quick bat that makes consistent contact and slashes line drives for a high average.  Farris’ quickness gives him a great deal of range at 2B and makes him a weapon on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: Eric has virtually no power and despite his speed, he is a mediocre defensive infielder.  He needs to build strength with the bat and consistency with the glove.

2009 Outlook: Farris will be AA Huntsville’s starting 2B this season.  The Brewers’ farm system doesn’t have many good middle infielders—especially 2nd basemen.  Farris has some nice top of the lineup tools, but there are several deficiencies in his game that may force the organization to look elsewhere for projectible talent. 

 

20.) Justin Snyder—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CHA	SAL	.288	132	504	77	145	33	3	7	59	205	68	95	7	1	.371	.407	.777
Minors		.288	132	504	77	145	33	3	7	59	205	68	95	7	1	.371	.407	.777

Strengths: Snyder is polished and patient at the plate.  He has shown the ability to be versitile, serving time at five different positions in ‘08.  He has decent power to the gaps and is a smart and competitive situational hitter.

Weaknesses: Similar to Chris Getz, Snyder is a low ceiling player who will be bumped around by more talented prospects.  He doesn’t have great power and his speed is average at best. 

2009 Outlook: Justin will move to High-A Tampa to continue in his development.  If he could bump up his HR totals, his value as a prospect would be considerably better. 

 

Others to consider: Daniel Mayora, Emmanuel Burriss, Shelby Ford, Yung-Chi Chen, Emilio Bonafacio, Justin Turner, Ryan Dent, Tony Thomas, Johnny Giavotella

Ok, it is late and I am sleepy….I hope you enjoy the list of 2B and, as always, I can’t wait to hear your comments and/or your own lists.

Top 20 First Base Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 2, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | 2 Comments to Read

Hello everyone!  Sorry for the delay in getting this list out.  I have been away from the keyboard the past couple of days only to find that a vast influx of readers have stopped by to check things out.  To those of you who are new to Porter’s Prospect Report, please feel free to drop a line and say howdy.  Thank you to all for reading and I hope you enjoy this installment of the Top 20 prospects as we make our way down the 1st base line. 

As expected, this list was even more difficult to rank than the catchers, thanks in large part to a handful of 2008 draftees who all have bright futures ahead of them but not a whole lot of professional data to mull over.  Without further ado, here’s the list…

#1.) Justin Smoak—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
CLI	MID	.304	14	56	9	17	3	0	3	6	29	5	10	0	0	.355	.518	.873
Minors		.304	14	56	9	17	3	0	3	6	29	5	10	0	0	.355	.518	.873

 

Strengths: Massive power from both sides of the plate a la Mark Teixeira.  He also has excellent plate discipline and is an above average defensive 1B.  The biggest question about Smoak is:  Why did he slip all the way to the 10th spot in the draft?

Weaknesses: He will not set any land speed records on the bases and his defensive acumen does not extend beyond 1B.

2009 Outlook: Smoak played in the Arizona Fall League briefly which indicates to me that he will start his season with High-A Bakersfield in the California League.  Given that tasty tidbit of info, it is quite likely that he will put up some gaudy numbers and a trip to AA Frisco on the Texas Ranger fast track is, by no means, out of the question.

2.) Lars Anderson—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LNC	CAL	.317	77	306	58	97	19	1	13	50	157	46	64	0	0	.408	.513	.921
POR	EAS	.316	41	133	27	42	13	0	5	30	70	29	43	1	0	.436	.526	.962
Minors		.317	118	439	85	139	32	1	18	80	227	75	107	1	0	.417	.517	.934

 

Strengths: Lars is a polished hitter with a tall, powerful frame that will develop more power as he matures.  He drives just about everything that he swings at and utilizes top notch plate discipline to boot.  Defensively, Anderson is a whiz with the potential to earn Gold Gloves in future seasons.

Weaknesses: Much like Smoak, Anderson is not a particularly quick baserunner and his defensive abilities are limited to first base.

2009 Outlook: The Red Sox are pretty well set with Youkilis manning the controls for the next couple of seasons and Mike Lowell and David Ortiz signed through 2010.  That should keep Anderson at AAA for the entire season with, perhaps a September cameo possible this season.  Lars is too good to keep down for long and the Red Sox may decide to get creative this off season to prepare room for their #1 overall prospect.

3.) Logan Morrison—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
JUP	FSL	.332	130	488	71	162	38	1	13	74	241	57	80	9	3	.402	.494	.896
Minors		.332	130	488	71	162	38	1	13	74	241	57	80	9	3	.402	.494	.896

 

Strengths: Like Smoak and Anderson, Morrison employs a lethal combination of power, batting average and plate discipline to make him one of the league’s up an coming sluggers.  His numbers in the Arizona Fall League (.404 5 HR 29 RBI) shows that his ‘08 dip in power may be an aberration.

Weaknesses: He is an average fielder at 1B, and his boost in batting average in ‘08 came at the expense of some of his power.  While he has the potential to hit for both, there is an ever so slight uncertainty that it will happen.

2009 Overview: AA should provide a good bearing on Logan’s projectible future.  If his AFL contributions are any indicator, Gaby Sanchez’s reign as the Marlins’ starting 1B will be a very short one.

4.) Yonder Alonso—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
WAI	HWB	.308	29	104	17	32	9	0	4	21	53	20	23	1	0	.419	.510	.929

Strengths: A solid high average bat that should produce at least 20-25 HR power in the major leagues.  His plate discipline and patience may be the best from any prospect in the ‘08 draft class as well.

Weaknesses: He is a fringe average defensive 1B who has virtually no shot at playing any other positions.  He has a pudgy frame that could add unwanted, performance detracting weight in future seasons.

2009 Overview: Alonso’s polish and sterling performance in the Hawaiian Winter League should allow him to jump directly to AA Carolina for the beginning of the ‘09 season.  The Reds are well set with Joey Votto performing the every day duties at 1B, but Alonso’s bat will not wait long in the Reds’ farm system.  Votto has the ability to play LF, though, and it seems reasonable that he could move there to make room for Yonder by 2010.

5.) Freddie Freeman—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
ROM	SAL	.316	130	491	70	155	33	7	18	95	256	46	84	5	5	.378	.521	.899
Minors		.316	130	491	70	155	33	7	18	95	256	46	84	5	5	.378	.521	.899

Strengths: Freeman has just scratched the surface of what his towering and powerful frame can produce.  He shows an incredible aptitude for driving in runs and driving the ball to all fields and scouts say that the ball sounds different coming off of his bat.  Defensively, Freeman has good instincts around the bag and a strong arm as well.

Weaknesses: His 6-5 220 lb. frame has the potential to build quite a bit more bulk, which should cut into his athleticism even further.  He will also have to increase his walk totals as he progresses.

2009 Outlook: The Braves should send Freeman to High-A Myrtle Beach to team with OF prospects Jason Heyward.  Freeman will be just 19 this season and his potential to be an elite power hitter could boost him to the top of this list in the next season or two.

 

6.) Kyle Blanks—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SAN	TEX	.325	132	492	75	160	23	5	20	107	253	51	90	5	4	.404	.514	.918
Minors		.325	132	492	75	160	23	5	20	107	253	51	90	5	4	.404	.514	.918

 

Strengths: Blanks is a hitting machine, lacing line drives to the gaps and piling up RBI’s in bunches.  He has solid plate discipline and his nimble feet around 1B belies his behemoth-like frame.

Weaknesses: His 6-6 270 lb. frame has some softness and could be an injury culpability over time.  Despite his size, Blanks doesn’t drive balls for power to the opposite field much.  This could just be an approach thing that could be rectified with more work.  Also, his defensive skill set doesn’t extend beyond the first base bag, which siginificantly limits his opportunities with San Diego.

2009 Outlook: The Padres already have a pretty good 1B in Adrian Gonzalez which means that Blanks should get a heavy dose of AAA pitching this season.  Gonzo’s contract extends through 2011 and the price tag is quite low.  This makes Blanks a prime candidate for a change of scenery as a high-value trading chip within the next season or two.

7.) Eric Hosmer—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
IDF	PIO	.364	3	11	2	4	2	0	0	2	6	3	2	0	0	.533	.545	1.079
Minors		.364	3	11	2	4	2	0	0	2	6	3	2	0	0	.533	.545	1.079

 

Strengths: Prime time power potential and the ability to hit for a high average.  Hosmer was the most polished prep hitter of the ‘08 draft.  His defense has also drawn rave reviews as his range, arm strength, and soft hands are all well above average.

Weaknesses: Not enough data at the major league level.  His plate disicpline at a pro level and power output will be monitored closely.  Like many big hitters, Hosmer’s long arms can make him more culpable to being jammed by pitches up and in.

2009 Outlook: The Royals are flush with 1B prospects througout their system, but Hosmer is far and away the best of the bunch.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hosmer get a shot at full season Low-A Burlington come April.

8.) David Cooper—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
AUB	NYP	.341	21	85	10	29	10	1	2	21	47	10	16	0	1	.411	.553	.963
LAN	MID	.354	24	96	15	34	10	0	2	17	50	10	14	0	0	.415	.521	.936
DUN	FSL	.304	24	92	10	28	9	0	1	13	40	10	16	0	0	.373	.435	.807
Minors		.333	69	273	35	91	29	1	5	51	137	30	46	0	1	.399	.502	.901

 

Strengths: Has the potential to be a future batting champion.  Cooper hits frozen ropes from foul line to foul line with the potential to hit 25-30 HR per season. 

Weaknesses: He is not an exceptional defensive player and has below average speed.

2009 Outlook: After playing at three levels last season, it is quite apparent that Cooper is on a fast track to Toronto.  The Blue Jays have current 1B Lyle Overbay signed through the 2010 season, which should provide Cooper with ample time to put the finishing touches on his development.  He should spend most of the season at AA New Hampshire but a promotion to AAA Syracuse and, perhaps, a September audition in Rogers Centre could also be in the cards.

 

9.) Kila Ka’aihue—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

NWA	TEX	.314	91	287	64	90	11	0	26	79	179	80	41	3	2	.463	.624	1.086
OMA	PCL	.316	33	114	27	36	4	0	11	21	73	24	26	0	0	.439	.640	1.079
Minors		.314	124	401	91	126	15	0	37	100	252	104	67	3	2	.456	.628	1.085
MLB		.286	12