Top 20 RHP’s for 2009 **Part 1**

Posted by Jeremy on March 17, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

Amidst all of my spring training reports, content writing for Hot-Prospects.net, and life outside the blogging world, I had put the Top 20 prospect reports on the back burner.  Well, we are back on track and this segment will feature the better half of the top 20 right handed pitching prospects for 2009.  These RHP’s are ones that are projected to be starters at this stage of their careers as we will handle the relievers in a separate post.  I hope you enjoy this immensely talented list!

1.) Tommy Hanson—Atlanta Braves

2009 Stats:

Strengths: Hanson’s fastball velocity jumped from 92-94 MPH to 96-98 MPH.  He locates it well and goes right after hitters.  His curveball is devastating with a hard 12 to 6 break that misses bats.  At 6-6, Hanson uses his height to throw downhill on hitters

Weaknesses: Very few.  Being a flyball pitcher, Hanson has the tendency to leave his heat up in the zone which, while permissable against minor league bats, could lead to trouble against the better hitters in the National League.

2009 Outlook: Hanson has pitched well enough this past fall and during the spring to earn a rotation spot in Atlanta.  He is a prime candidate for the 2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year award and he should anchor a young and talented Braves rotation for years to come.

2.) Neftali Feliz—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A fastball that can register 100 MPH on the radar gun.  Feliz is able to keep his heater down in the strike zone and has shown a marked improvement in controling his breaking ball.  Feliz rarely gets hit hard and is capable of inducing groundball outs when needed.

Weaknesses: Pitching in Texas is tough for any pitcher, especially young ones.  Feliz had a big breakout season in ‘08, but he is still extremely young and inexperienced.  While his changeup has made progress, Neftali still struggles to gain a good feel for it sometimes.

2009 Projection: The temptation of the Rangers to rush Feliz into MLB duty gets greater with every solid outing.  He has proven this spring to be the hands down best pitching prospect that Texas has and it is an inevitability that he will make his debut at some point in 2009, likely before the All-Star break.

3.) Rick Porcello—-Detroit Tigers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Porcello has the stuff and polish of an All-Star veteran pitcher.  His fastball sits between 93-96 MPH and hitters have a difficult time squaring up and driving it because of the late sinking movement.  His slider is a mid 80’s hammer as is his big breaking curveball, but his changeup is far and away the gem of the offspeed pitches with excellent late fade and velocity that can dip down to 70 MPH.  All of these are potential plus to plus-plus offerings and Porcello commands them all with excellence.  His arm action is top notch and his mechanics are flawless.

Weaknesses: 72 K’s in 125 IP is very uncustomary for someone with Porcello’s pure stuff.  Sometimes his slider tends to get slurvy and lacks the bite that his curveball possesses.

2009 Outlook: Porcello should start in AA, but his ultimate destination this next season is in Detroit’s rotation.  At just 20 years old, Porcello has the potential to be baseball’s best rookie pitcher and an all-star caliber ace for years to come.

4.) Trevor Cahill—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His low-90’s fastball has heavy sink that induces groundballs by the bunches.  He controls it well and uses it to set up hitters for his knee-buckling 70 MPH curveball.  Cahill has a good idea on how to set up hitters and locate pitches to all quadrants of the strike zone.

Weaknesses: His changeup is a little behind the other two pitches and his confidence in it wanes from time to time.  While his 6-3 frame is athletic and projectible, Cahill will likely not develop the same velocity on his fastball that pitchers like Hanson, Porcello, Feliz and others feature. 

2009 Projection: Cahill is on a fast track and the organizaiton has not ruled out the possibility that he could find his way into the A’s rotation on opening day.  More likely, Cahill will be shipped to AAA Sacramento and await the phone call that will surely come at some point summoning him to the big club.

5.) Jordan Zimmerman—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His 90-94 MPH fastball has good downward movement and saws off RH batters.  The curveball is a plus pitch with 12-6 break and swing and miss potential.  Zimmerman is a bulldog on the mound and is an agile athlete.

Weaknesses: The third pitch is a changeup and it is a little behind the fastball and curve.  He struggles sometimes with his command and has struggled in the past with heaping too many expectations on himself when he is on the mound.

2009 Outlook: Zimmerman is one of the Nationals’ workhorses in the rotation.  He should fit nicely in the #4 or 5 spot this season with the likelihood of moving into the #2 or 3 slot by 2010.

6.)  Chris Tillman—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His fastball gained a little bit of velocity, sitting comfortably at 92-95 MPH.  He uses his 6-5 frame to leverage it well and attack hitters.  His 11-5 tilt on his curveball is wicked and serves as his strikeout pitch. 

Weaknesses: His control improved last season, but he still walked nearly 4 hitter per 9 innings.  He is a flyball pitcher that sometimes has trouble with locating his fastball down in the zone on a consistent basis.

2009 Outlook: Tillman should make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09, but a trip to AAA Bowie is surely in the making.  The Orioles are amassing a weatlh of intriguing pitching talent in their farm system that could blossom quite soon.  When it does, the AL East will have another beast to contend with and Tillman may be leading the charge atop Baltimore’s young rotation.

7.) Tim Alderson—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: The things that stands out most is Alderson’s pinpoint control.  He is remarkably poised on the mound and has an uncannily high baseball IQ.  Oh, his stuff is pretty good too.  His fastball lives in the low 90’s, topping out at 95.  At 6-7, Alderson throws it downhill at hitters and should be able to generate groundball outs at a decent rate.  His curveball is even better.  It has a hard break and low 80’s velocity, but he has also shown an aptitude for manipulating the velocity and movement of it.

Weaknesses: Some scouts were concerned with the unnatural mechanics of his delivery, thinking that it would affect his durability in the future, but there has been no signs of wear yet.  He needs to gain some bulk on his lean frame and should continue to add depth to his changeup.

2009 Outlook: Alderson should rocket through the Giants system at a similar pace to superstar lefty Madison Bumgarner (more on him later).  Alderson should be ready to make his MLB debut in the second half of the 2010 season and, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain already in San Francisco’s rotation, Alderson along with Bumgarner should form the most formidable young rotation ever seen in the Bay Area.  Giants fans rejoice!

8.) Jarrod Parker—Arizona Diamondbacks

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Big time heat that can touch 97 MPH with ease.  His curveball is tops in the Diamondbacks system with late diving action and his slider is another effective pitch.  Parker has a high IQ on the mound and is a tireless worker.  His mechanics are clean and he has a good idea on how to get hitters out

Weaknesses: Parker has a smallish frame that has been durable thusfar, but runs the risk of wearing down as he ages.  His changeup is a “show me” pitch at this point and his fastball tends to get up in the zone (especially late in games) lowering the number of groundball outs and increasing the risk of surrendering XBH.

2009 Outlook: Parker did well in his first professional assignment and he should continue to prove his greatness at High-A and perhaps AA this season.  Parker has the ability to dominate hiters and should continue to rack up big strikeout numbers in ‘09 with a shot of making the D’Backs rotation in mid-late 2010.

9.) Michael Bowden—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Bowden has a bulldog mentality and breathes baseball.  He has excellent control of three pitches including a 90-92 MPH heater, a 12-6 breaking curveball and a changeup that he throws with deceptive arm speed. 

Weaknesses: Bowden is not overpowering like other pitchers on this list.  He doesn’t induce groundball outs well, which could kill him at Fenway.  His deceptive delivery needs to be cleaned up from the herky jerky movements that could lead to injuries down the road. 

2009 Outlook: In another organization, Bowden would be starting in the middle or end of the rotation.  In Boston, he is a AAA farmhand.  Expect him to start at Pawtucket until an injury or trade allows him an opportunity.  With Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson ahead of him, the latter may be his best bet.  Ultimately his ceiling is as a durable and effective #3 starter.  Given his high amount of success and polish, there is a good chance he will fulfill that promise.

10.) Jhoulys Chacin—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Weaknesses: Chacin’s stuff is not overpowering and, if it is not on, he can be hit hard.  Colorado finesse pitchers have a history of struggling in the light air of Coors Field as their stuff seemingly does not experience the same movement.  A pitch with lateral break (i.e. a slider) would be a welcome addition as Jhoulys’ pitches all have downward movement.  He is not that big and his slender build may struggle to sustain a workload suitable for a top of the rotation starter.

2009 Outlook: ‘09 will be a show me season at AA Tulsa.  It will be interesting to see how his stuff carries over to this challenging level.  Brandon Hynick, a similar finesse pitcher, struggled mightily last season after having an immensely successful season at High-A.  Chacin’s stuff is better, but a repeat performance from 2008’s breakout campaign will be a monumental challenge.

There’s the top 10….your thoughts are welcome.  I will get to work on the 11-20th ranked RHP’s and should have them completed within the next couple of days.  Remember that Friday March 20th is the final day for the PPR Contest.  Thusfar we have 8 excellent submissions and I am always looking for more!

Have a great day!

Top 20 Outfield Prospects for 2009 (Part 1)

Posted by Jeremy on February 24, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Are you ready for a banger of a list?  I originally made a list of about 50 OF that could potentially find their way onto this list and had a dickens of a time narrowing it down to the top 20.  This link will contain the top 10 and a following link will have 11-20. 

If you are on your best behavior….I will add a gratuitous third list covering ranks 21-30.

I was oscillating between three strong candidates for the top honors on the list.  I chose to go with youthful upside over polish and experience.  Jason Heyward exceeded the lofty expectations heaped upon him by the baseball prospecting world by decimating pitching in his first dose of full season ball.  As good as his season was, he has yet to even chisel through the surface of his mountainous potential. 

1.) Jason Heyward—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Where to begin with this youngster?  Heyward has off the charts power potential, plus speed, a cannon for an arm, and has shown an ability to hit for a high average with excellent plate discipline.  Heyward is an intelligent ballplayer who carries his lunchpail to work day in and day out.

Weaknesses: Just experience at this point.  Chances are that he will lose some of his speed as he ages and will become more of a slugger.  He did struggle in his brief time at High-A Myrtle Beach, but there is no reason to believe that this will be a prolonged problem for the 19 year old southpaw.

2009 Outlook: Heyward gets a  taste of the Braves’ big league camp this spring but his early regular season months will be spent back at Myrtle Beach.  There’s a big possibility that he will earn a promotion to AA Mississippi at some point.  Heyward is a fast track player and one of baseball’s most intriguing prospects.

2.) Travis Snider—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Jaw dropping power potential.  Snider has a thick muscular build that generates incredible torque from a left handed swing that produces tape measure moon shots.  He is a gritty player who works hard in all aspects of his game.  He is more athletic than he looks and profiles as an pretty good RF with a rocket arm.

Weaknesses: The price for great power is a prolific number of strikeouts.  Snider’s high K rates lends him to be streaky at times at the plate.  He is just 20 years old, but has already maxed out physically.  He should lose some of his average speed as he ages and could be a risk for injuries.

2009 Outlook: Snider looks to have a starting OF spot locked up before spring starts.  He is a prime candidate for the ‘09 A.L. Rookie of the Year award, but he could be afflicted by a post debut slump just as well.  Long term, there is plenty to be excited about in this youngster.

3.) Cameron Maybin—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Maybin has a wide assortment of tools emanating from a highly athletic and strong 6-4 205 lb. frame.  Cameron possesses track star speed and sinewy strength that should make him a perennial 20 HR/20 SB player and, possibly, a 30 HR/30 SB threat in future seasons.  He covers a ton of real estate in CF while running good routes on balls and employs excellent arm strength as well.

Weaknesses: His performance has yet to match his tools.  Maybin was rushed through the Tigers farm system and the results were lackluster.  The Marlins have taken a more prudent approach to his development, which seems to have rendered more positive results.  He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough.  This affects his ability to get on base at higher levels and utilize his game changing speed.  He has considerable power potential, but doesn’t seem to know quite how to tap into it.  He hits a high rate of groundballs and struggles at times to generate the necessary swing trajectory to drive pitches.

2009 Outlook: Maybin is ready to become a full time major league hitter.  His development is not quite consummated, but his skill set is too good to keep down on the farm any longer.  Maybin has the potential to be the National League’s best rookie in 2009, but his plate discipline and ability to drive the ball need to improve.  Eventually, his skills should win out and translate to a highly productive major league career.

4.) Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Rasmus has an exciting blend of speed and power potential that could land him at the top of a lineup or in the middle.  He has shown an ability to draw walks and is an impact player on the basepaths.  Defensively, Rasmus is as good as they come.  His spectacular plays and vast range reminds some of a former Gold Glove CF that patrolled Busch Stadium for years, Jim Edmonds.

Weaknesses: Injuries hampered Rasmus last season and for the second season in a row, Colby struggled in the early parts of the season.  Additionally, Colby has yet to display the ability to hit for a high average since his 2006 numbers at short season Quad Cities.

2009 Outlook: The Cardinals seem ready to have Rasmus challenge to take over the everyday CF duties on Opening Day.  Rasmus has the ability to put up Grady Sizemore-like numbers in future seasons, but odds are that he will suffer some growing pains in his first couple of seasons.  Hopefully they will be limited to performance and not health.

5.) Matt LaPorta—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: LaPorta has 30-40 HR power potential and the ability to hit for a high average as well.  Matt is a polished hitter with good plate discipline and above average hand-eye coordination.  LaPorta has an engaging personality that makes him a positive presence in every clubhouse and a potential team leader.

Weaknesses: Matt struggled after being traded to Cleveland, but those shouldn’t affect his long term development.  He is a fringe average defensive player as both an outfielder and first baseman.  He may end up as a DH in future seasons.  He has below average speed that makes him a coagulant on the bases.

2009 Outlook:  Matt will make his MLB debut at some point this season, probably after May.  Expect him to rebound from last year’s struggles at Akron to hit very well at AAA Columbus.  Once he arrives, his power bat should anchor the middle of the Indians lineup for several seasons to come.

6.) Dexter Fowler—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Fowler is an exciting athlete with top of the order speed and the ability to hit for average and decent power numbers.  He has exhibited a great deal of patience at the plate which results in a high number of walks.  Defensively, Dexter is exciting to watch.  He tracks down balls well in the gaps making highlight reel plays and his strong arm should play anywhere.  He is an intelligent player who once turned down a basketball scholarship to Harvard.

Weaknesses: Fowler needs to continue to get stronger.  His wiry frame doesn’t quite produce the pop that people anticipate he will eventually develop.  He had a problem with injuries in the past, though his ‘08 season was injury free. 

2009 Outlook: Fowler has a great shot to make the club out of spring training as Ryan Spilborghs is his only competition in CF.  A good showing this spring should relegate Spilborghs to the 4th oufielder spot.  If things don’t go well in spring training, the Rockies may elect to send him to Colorado Springs for some fine tuning.  Fowler is a prime top of the lineup candidate whose best years are ahead of him.

7.) Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Top of the lineup skills that includes elite speed that can steal 25-30 bases per MLB season, and an advanced, patient approach at the plate that draws a high amount of walks.  McCutchen has a highly athletic and wiry frame that has intriguing power potential.  He has put on some muscle in the offseason which could well translate into more HR’s.  He plays with an elevated level of confidence and seems to put up better numbers after every promotion.  McCutchen’s also has the potential to be a Gold Glove outfielder with a propensity to make spectacular plays.

Weaknesses: The power hasn’t developed as some have expected, perhaps partly due being rushed through the Pirates’ system.  Also, he needs to be more disciplined on the basepaths as well.  McCutchen was caught stealing 19 times in 53 chances last season.

2009 Outlook: The long awaited MLB debut for Andrew McCutchen will happen this season, but not in April.  The Pirates would like to have him play every day and are still trying to assess the potential productivity of Steven Pearce, Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan.  Once McCutchen makes his debut, he should rise to the challenge and be the rock solid impact player atop Pittsburgh’s lineup for the next several years.

8.) Fernando Martinez—New York Mets

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Martinez has a quick swing that generates good leverage that should be able to produce 25-30 HR per season within the next couple of years.  Those who watch him rave about his advanced hitting approach and feel that he can evolve into a .300 hitter. 

Weaknesses: He’s been bitten by the injury bug over the past couple of seasons which has hampered some of his development.  Aside from his outstanding bat, his other skills are average.  The Mets organization would like to see him demonstrate more patience at the plate as advanced pitchers will find ways to get him out.

2009 Outlook: F-Mart is on the cusp of a big time breakout.  His performance in the Dominican Winter League gave a brief glimpse of power to come.  The Mets will likely start him at AAA Buffalo before bringing him up for his MLB debut in the second half of the season.  The offensive ceiling for this 20 year old is incredibly high and someday his name may be mentioned in the same breath as David Wright and Jose Reyes.

9.) Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: The ball explodes off of this kid’s bat.  To project him as a 40 HR hitter may be underestimating his potential ceiling.  At 6-5 225 lb., Stanton is built like a statue but has the athleticism of an NFL wide receiver.  His plus speed and arm strength makes him a prototypical RF in the mold of Dave Winfield.  He is an intelligent young man with a great work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: 158 punchouts is to high, even for a hitter with Stanton’s immense power.  He is fooled quite easily by breaking pitches and still has a raw feel for the strike zone.  Despite his good speed, Michael Stanton doesn’t steal many bags-a trend that should continue as he matures. 

2009 Outlook: A 39 HR season as a 19 year old puts Stanton on the fast track.  He should start the season at High-A Jupiter and could earn a promotion to AA Jacksonville if all goes well.  The chances for a 2009 slump is a real possibility.  Stanton has propelled himself onto the radar screens of just about every minor league pitcher.  The Florida State League is a pitcher’s haven and the expectations heaped upon Stanton after his ‘08 campaign will be difficult to uphold.  Long term, his place alongside Cameron Maybin and opposite John Raynor will give the Marlins an outfield as talented as any in major league baseball within the next few seasons.

10.) Michael Taylor—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Taylor is a complete hitter with a muscular 6-6 250 lb. frame and left handed swing that can launch balls into the stratosphere.  He is an excellent athlete that runs well, steals bases and plays a very good right field.  His plate discipline is quite advanced and he brings an intelligent approach to all aspects of his game.

Weaknesses: Given his size, it is conceivable that he could lose some of his basestealing abilities as he ages and could become more of a power hitter.  His BB/K ratio regressed after his promotion to High-A, though it didn’t have a noticable effect on his batting average.  He is currently 23 years old and needs to avoid having any setbacks at AA or AAA in order to maintain his status as an elite prospect. 

2009 Outlook: AA will be the next step for Taylor.  This should provide a firm indicator to the true scope of his offensive skills.  If he can continue his torrid hitting, Taylor could vault himself into the top five slots on this list.  Expect him to be in the major leagues at some time in 2010…perhaps in April.

Stay tuned for the second half of this list and feel free to comment of the Top 10.  There are plenty of sound investments in this group of future superstars and the market for their cards is starting to sizzle.  If you are looking to make a purchase, please feel free to do so through one of my eBay affiliate links!

Top 20 Shortstop Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 10, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

After working on this crop of shortstops, I came to the realization that this bunch is extremely difficult to figure out.  With the exception of a few players, many of the top 20 (and those on the outer fringes of the list) are players whose performances have not yet matched the depth of their tools.  Projectibility is a favorite buzz word in a prospector’s vocabulary, as it indicates an elevated ceiling of potential skills.  However, it also serves as a double edged sword.  Several factors can inhibit a player’s potential; injuries, strike zone judgement, and even poorly run organizaitons (my Mariners case in point).  This list is chock full of projectibility and, odds are that there will be a great deal of movement, both positive and negative, within the ranks throughout the season.  Enjoy the list!

1.) Gordon Beckham—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Beckham is an extremely polished player with both the bat and glove who has the ability to hit for a high batting average, 20-25 HR power all while playing solid defense at the shortstop position.  He has off the charts makeup and a relentless competitive drive.

Weaknesses: At a demure 6-0 175 lb., there is not much projectivity to Beckham’s athleticism.  His ceiling is not nearly as high as the other Beckham on this list.

2009 Outlook: Gordon opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League when he hit .394 with 3 HR 13 RBI and 20 runs scored in just 18 games.  This should easily allow for him to skip High-A ball altogether and head directly to AA Birmingham to start the season.  A promotion to AAA Charlotte in the making at some point followed by a his MLB debut after rosters expand in September.  Alexei Ramirez is currently slated to play SS this season, but he seems more suited to be a 2B or OF once Beckham is ready. 

2.) Elvis Andrus—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Explosive top of the lineup speed and a bat that sizzles line drives from gap to gap.  His combination of range, glove, and arm strength makes him a future Gold Glove candidate and potential All-Star.  Several within the organization praise his makeup and leadership skills. 

Weaknesses: Andrus has below average power at this point of his career, though there is promise for more.  His plate discipline is still a bit raw which should allow for major league pitchers to exploit his aggressiveness in the early going.

2009 Outlook: Andrus inadvertantly created a good deal of buzz in the offseason as the organization stated that Michael Young will be shifted over to 3B to make room for Andrus.  He may not be ready yet for the challenge, though his work ethic and competitiveness makes it hard for him to fail for long.  As an insurance policy, the Rangers signed 11-time Gold Glover Omar Vizquel, who should serve as a fine mentor for the Rangers’ future leadoff dynamo.

3.) Tim Beckham—Tampa Bay Rays

2008 Stats:  

Strengths: Tools…and lots of them.  The ball jumps off of his bat due to his quick swing and surprising strength.  He projectibly can be an 18-22 HR hitter in time and his speed should produce 20-30 SB per season as well.  Defensively, he has all of the tools to be a special playmaker at the shortstop position.  Despite his youth, he has shown a great deal of maturity and exhibits a good feel for the game. 

Weaknesses: He is still quite raw.  His swing has technical flaws that need to be ironed out and his strike zone judgement is still in its early stages of development. 

2009 Outlook: Beckham should get to put his abilities on display at full season Low-A Bowling Green this summer.  He has all the abilities to be a bonafide superstar in the future, but that day currently just a speck on the horizon.  The Rays have a wealth of talent sprinkled throughout their farm system which allows for them to bring Beckham along at a prudent pace.  Once the skills catch up with the tools, Tim Beckham could become baseball’s #1 overall prospect.

4.) Carlos Triunfel—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Triunfel has a lively bat that has shown intriguing power potential and high rates of contact.  Triunfel is a very confident player who attacks all phases of his game with a consistent desire to better his skills.  Those that have watched Carlos feel that he will develop into more of a power hitter in the future along the same lines as Miguel Tejada. 

 Weaknesses: Triunfel clashed early in the season with team officials at High Desert about undisclosed issues and was suspended for the early part of the season.  While much of this can be chalked up to youthful indescretions, it is still a matter that is worth monitoring this season.  Triunfel’s thick legs should lose some footspeed and range over time, which makes shortstop only a temporary home.  A change to the hot corner would put additional pressure on him to put up better power numbers.

2009 Outlook: Triunfel has worked dilligently since his suspension to make himself into a more complete player.  He toiled at two separate winter league stops and should get a look this spring before heading to AA West Tennessee in April.  The M’s have been aggressive with Carlos’ development and he has handled every challenge thrown at him with consistently positive results. 

5.) Alcides Escobar—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Emerging top of the lineup offensive potential with promising gap power.  Escobar has excellent speed that he utilizes well on the bases and in the field.  Defensively, Escobar’s range, hands, and arm strength ranks him as one of the top SS in the minor leagues.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have the HR potential as some of the other players on this list.  Escobar also needs to do a better job of working counts and drawing more walks if he wants to be a leadoff hitter.

2009 Outlook: J.J. Hardy and Rickie Weeks are his biggest obstacles keeping Alcides Escobar from Milwaukee right now.  That should give him ample time to play everyday at AAA Nashville to put the finishing touches on his development.  He will get another opportunity to play with the Brewers or, perhaps, another organization at some point this season.

6.) Chris Valaika—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Valaika is a good offensive player with a high average bat and power to the alleys that could provide 12-18 HR per season for the Reds.  He is a gritty competitor who is a potential clubhouse leader as well.

Weaknesses: Defensively, his below average range may eventually shift him to second base.  He also needs to continue to work on tightening up his plate discipline as he doesn’t draw many walks.  Valaika has good polish, but isn’t as projectible as other prospects on this list.

2009 Outlook: After playing well in the Arizona Fall League (.311 2 HR 16 RBI 18 runs scored) Valaika will get an opportunity to play with the Reds’ big league camp at spring training before heading to AAA Louisville in April.  The Reds have a glut of depth at shortstop, but none of them have the offensive upside of Chris Valaika.  He should get the call to Cincinnati at some point in the second half of the season.

7.) Yamaico Navarro—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Navarro’s offensive game made great strides last year as he demonstrated good line drive power that could produce 12-15 HR per season at the major league level.  He is strong for his size and is an adept fielder.  Yamaico plays with a high level of energy and has a penchant for making dazzling plays.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have enough power to be a middle of the order run producer, nor enough speed to be a prototypical leadoff hitter.  Yamiaco needs to keep refining his approach at the plate to significantly cut back on his K totals.  If he doesn’t, he will get eaten alive by more advanced pitchers.

2009 Outlook: AA Portland will privide a monumental challenge for Navarro.  His ’08 season helped to vault him to the top of Boston’s organizational chart at SS, but there are several intriguing prospects (Oscar Tejeda, Argenis Diaz, Casey Kelly) who could potentially knock him down a peg or two.  Navarro will have to prove that his offensive breakthrough is more than a California League-induced aberration.

8.) Ivan DeJesus Jr.—Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: DeJesus has remarkable plate discipline for someone of his age and his quick bat produces line drives all over the field.  Ivan Jr. has above average speed that he uses on the bases wisely.  Defensively he has demonstrated good agility and fluidity.  Plus, his arm strength is just a tick above average which helps his chances as a SS.

Weaknesses: DeJesus has more power than his dad did, but he still will be hard pressed to crack double digits in HR’s at the major league level.  Despite his good defensive tools, DeJesus still makes quite a few errors, which may be due to lapses in focus on routine plays. 

2009 Outlook: DeJesus has worked hard at a couple of fall and winter league destinations this offseason.  He should get a long look by the Dodgers before reporting to AAA Albequerqe.  The Dodgers just re-signed Rafael Furcal to a three year contract which makes things more complicated for DeJesus.  Second base may be a better option though, as Blake DeWitt and veteran Mark Loretta offer far less formidable competition.  Expect DeJesus to make his Chavez Ravine debut in the second half of ‘09.

9.) Reid Brignac—Tampa Bay Rays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Once a defensive liability, Brignac has worked dilligently to become one of the most reliable fielding shortstops in the minor leagues.  His 6-3 180 lb. frame offers promising power potential as it matures.

Weaknesses: As Reid’s defensive skills have improved, his offensive production has regressed.  He struggled last season to control the strike zone and his power output has decreased in each of the past three seasons.  Brignac’s size offers intriguing offensive potential, but as it grows, his range could diminish as well. 

2009 Outlook: Jason Bartlett’s excellent performance in the second half of the ‘08 season gives Brignac a little more time to work things out at AAA Durham.  He needs it.  Expect Reid to earn a call up at some point ’09 with hopefully better results.  Brignac’s long term future with the Rays is tenuous as Tim Beckham is assuredly the shortstop of the future in Tampa.  However, if Reid can distinguish himself over the next season and a half, there is still a chance that he can be a solid player either with the Rays or another organiztion.

10.) Oscar Tejeda—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats: 

Strengths: Tejeda has a lean and athletic body that oozes tools and projection.  His quick bat makes solid contact that produces line drives with potential power output down the road.  He has also been praised for his good makeup and baseball IQ.

 Weaknesses: He has good defensive tools but has not harnessed footwork and throwing mechanics.  This makes him error prone and may force a position switch at some point.  His power is merely a projection right now, and the ceiling is likely limited to 10-15 HR per year.  He has good speed, but has yet to figure out how to use it as a weapon on the basepaths.

2009 Outlook: Tejeda was surpassed by Yamaico Navarro on organization’s depth chart.  He has the youth and abilty to reclaim the top spot and some success at High-A Salem should help with that process.

11.) Pete Kozma—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
QC	MID	.284	99	377	58	107	20	4	5	40	150	45	69	12	5	.363	.398	.760
PBC	FSL	.130	24	77	4	10	4	0	0	10	14	10	27	0	1	.231	.182	.413
Minors		.258	123	454	62	117	24	4	5	50	164	55	96	12	6	.340	.361	.701

Strengths: Pete has the complete package of skills suitable to becoming an MLB shortstop.  He has solid average to above average defensive tools and advanced instincts for a prospect his age.  His better tools are seen in his offensive game.  Kozma has a fundamentally sound swing that hits more line drives right now, but could develop power with some fine tuning.  He also shows a willingness to work at bats for walks and once he is on base, he uses his above average speed with savvy and discipline.  He is a gamer who works tirelessly to make himself a better baseball player.

Weaknesses: His ceiling is a little difficult to determine.  Some who have seen Kozma play feel that he could be an every day shortstop, others feel that he may develop as a utility-type player.  His blend of skills are good, but nothing stands out as being “spectacular”.  He needs to cut back on his K’s and continue to work on driving the ball with authority.

2008 Outlook: Kozma will begin back at High-A Palm Beach in April.  The Cardinals are quite thin at the shortstop position

12.) Cale Iorg—Detroit Tigers

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAK	FSL	.251	99	383	61	96	15	7	10	47	155	35	111	22	11	.329	.405	.734
Minors		.251	99	383	61	96	15	7	10	47	155	35	111	22	11	.329	.405	.734

Strengths: Iorg demonstrated a wide assortment of above average tools in his first full season.  His 6-2 180 lb. frame has good athleticism and budding power potential.  He can probably hit between 15-20 HR per season with regularity and his baserunning skills could produce the same amount of stolen bases.  Defensively, Iorg showed good range and a strong throwing arm that should make him a defensive asset in the six-hole.

Weaknesses: Iorg missed a season doing missionary work in Portugal.  At age 23, he is a little less refined than other prospects his age, though he made up ground quickly in ‘08.  His plate discpline is a major impediment that hampers his ability to hit for a higher batting average.  Also, his numbers waned as the season progressed, perhaps due to the shoulder strain that kept him sidelined for a while.

2009 Outlook: Tigers’ GM Dave Dombroski is quite optimistic that Iorg can be the team’s regular shortstop in a short period of time.  Iorg will get the opportunity to prove him right at AA Erie.  It sounds like Detroit would like to place him on the fast track.  Don’t be surprised to see him earn a promotion to AAA at some point if Iorg progresses as Dombroski hopes.  He is conservatively ranked on this list and, odds are, he will not be this low come next season.

13.) Justin Jackson—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: There is a ton of projectibility wrapped up in this 6-2 190 lb. package.  Jackson showed an ability to hit for good XBH power that could start clearing more fences as he matures.  He has good speed once he gets moving, which allows for him to run bases well and turn doubles into triples.  He has good defensive tools highlighted by a cannon-like arm that was clocked at 93 MPH as a high school senior.

Weaknesses: Jackson is overly aggressive at the plate which allows for him to rack up strikeouts in copious amounts and leaves him vulnerable to slumps at the plate.  His power is merely a projection at this point and his baserunning speed doesn’t produce high SB totals. 

2009 Outlook: Jackson’s struggles in ‘08 shouldn’t keep him from moving up to High-A Dunedin this spring.  The Blue Jays aggressively drafted young, high-upside offensive talents in the ‘07 draft, signalling an impending youth movement in Toronto over the next couple of seasons.  Expect Jackson to be amongst the masses taking the field in Rogers Centre within the next three seasons.

14.) Lonnie Chisenhall—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
MVS	NYP	.290	68	276	38	80	20	3	5	45	121	24	32	7	2	.355	.438	.794
Minors		.290	68	276	38	80	20	3	5	45	121	24	32	7	2	.355	.438	.794

Strengths: His bat is highly advanced for someone of his age, producing above average power with the ability to hit for a high batting average as well.  Chisenhall has a good feel for the strike zone and makes effective use of his marginal speed by intelligently running the bases.

Weaknesses: Off the field incidents ended Chisenhall’s career at the University of South Carolina as he was arrested for burglary and grand larceny.  He has seemingly moved beyond these but they still bear watching.  Additionally, his slow foot speed and thick frame fits better at 3B where his offensive numbers become more marginal.

2009 Outlook: Last season’s fine performance at short season Mahoning Valley should carry forward at full season Low-A ball this year.  Chisenhall will have to make the shift to 3B soon, but his offensive upside should allow for him to play anywhere.

15.) Carlos Rivero—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: At 6-3 210 lb., Rivero is an imposing well built SS in the mold of Cal Ripken Jr. and (ahem) Alex Rodriguez.  Rivero caught fire in August batting .356 with 4 HR and 21 RBI.  His fluid swing and quck hands has the potential to produce excellent power numbers that could surpass 20 HR per season at the major league level.  He has shown soft hands and a strong arm as well.

Weaknesses: Rivero may very well outgrow the SS position.  His substandard footspeed has already affected his range and there is plenty of reason to believe that he is not done growing.  At the plate, Rivero makes good contact but is prone to swinging at pitches out of the zone early in the count, limiting his walk totals.  The promise of power to come is merely projection at this point.

2009 Outlook: Shortstop will probably not be Rivero’s future position, but the Indians are allowing him the opportunity to play himself out of the position.  Right now, the numbers that he puts up defensively are average.  He will progress to AA Akron this season and that should prove to be a monumental challenge for him that he may not be prepared to undertake.  Don’t be surprised to see him back at Kinston if he struggles in the early going.

16.) Jonathan Galvez—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats: 

Strengths: Galvez has a wide assortment of tools wrapped up in an athletic 6-2 175 lb. frame.  His quick right-handed swing has good leverage that should produce more HR power in future seasons.  More intriguing is his patience at the plate.  He makes good contact with balls in the strike zone and has shown an advanced ability to recognize offspeed pitches.  His foot speed is also an asset that he utilizes on the basepaths and in the field.

Weaknesses: Galvez struggled mightlily in July (.153 0 HR 9 RBI) and reports stated that the young SS put a great deal of pressure on himself, especially with runners in scoring position.  Galvez’s excellent performance happened in the Dominican Summer League and it remains to be seen how that will carry over to Low-A ball.

2009 Outlook: Galvez will only be 18 years old when the 2009 season begins which means that another dose of short season ball (probably with Eugene) looks to be in the cards.  If he continues to sustain his excellent rate of progress, he should be promoted to Fort Wayne and to the upper half of this list as well.

17.) Devaris Strange-Gordon—Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Devaris Gordon may have to borrow his dad’s nickname “Flash” for awhile.  He is fast….really fast.  Gordon time of 6.35 seconds in the 60 yard dash makes him, hands down, the fastest player in the Dodgers organization.  His bat sprays line drives all over the field and his excellent hand-eye coordination makes him a difficult man to strike out.  Defensively, his range is almost limitless and his glove and arm strength seems to be adaquate for the position.

Weaknesses: LIke his dad, Tom, Devaris is slight of build and should never crack double digits in HR totals.  He needs to learn to work counts more effectively for walks in order to fulfill his potential as a leadoff hitter.  His speed could be used as a lethal weapon on the basepaths, but he needs to continue to hone his abilities to read pitchers’ pickoff moves.  Having Juan Pierre in the Dodgers’ system as a potential mentor couldn’t hurt.

2009 Outlook: His impressive numbers at Ogden will be challenged at Low-A Great Lakes this season.  Gordon has the electrifying speed and bat to be an elite top of the order prospect within the next couple of seasons.  His time under the radar won’t last long.

18.) P.J. Phillips—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: There is no shortage of projectible athleticism in Brandon Phillips’ younger brother’s game.  At 6-3 170 lbs., P.J. has top notch speed and sinewy strength that could make him a 20/20 candidate as a major leaguer.  Phillips was red hot over the second half of the season batting .315 with 6 HR 25 RBI 18 SB and 39 runs scored. 

Weaknesses: There is still a great deal of rawness and sloppy technique in Phillips’ game.  His plate discipline is nothing short of abysmal and his glove work in the field (37 errors) is quite sloppy.  P.J. may make a move to the outfield in the future.

2009 Outlook: The challenge for P.J. will be to continue his late season success at his new destination of AA Arkansas.  This year should give a better bearing on where Phillips’ skills truly are.  If he can refine his approach at the plate and shore up his defense at shortstop, he would assuredly improve his stock on this list significantly.  His brother was a late bloomer.  Perhaps, P.J. will be as well.

19.) Chris Nelson—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His bat speed and leverage gives Nelson power potential that exceeds the perceived potential of his 5-11 175 lb. frame.  Nelson’s sterling performance in the AFL (.321 6 HR 17 RBI 22 runs scored) not only revived hopes in his abilities as a prospect but showed that he has made strides in improving his plate discipline.  When healthy, Nelson has the speed to steal 15-20 bases per season at the major league level.

Weaknesses: Nelson’s development has been Jekyll and Hyde throughout his career.  Last season’s numbers were mitigated severely by injuries to his hammate bone and hamstring, which makes his overall health in 2009 worth watching.  Defensively, he is below average, and his skills may be better suited for the outfield.  If he is forced to move, his value takes an immediate hit, especially in an organization with the depth of talent that Colorado has.

2009 Outlook: 2008 was a lost season for Nelson, but he showed a lot by coming back and performing so well in Arizona.  He has been included on Colorado’s 40 man roster which means that he should get a good dose of playing time during spring training.  If he continues his success, Nelson should move to AAA Colorado Springs in April.  If he struggles, he may go back to Tulsa to work things out.  Nelson seems like he has been around forever, but he is still just 23 and the potential for him to be an offensive force in a major league lineup makes him a prime sleeper for 2009.

20.) Jason Christian—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Christian is a big shortstop that has plenty of room to fill out in his 6-3 170 lb. frame.   He has shwon an ability to drive in runs and hit balls hard for good gap power.  Given his quick swing and fluidity, it is conceivable that he could develop above average power down the line.  His smoothness and strong, accurate arm reminds some scouts of fellow Athletic Bobby Crosby.  He is an intelligent player who showed a willingness to work at a variety of postions.

Weaknesses: Jason abandoned his solid plate discipline that he exhibited in his three seasons as a Michigan Wolverine.  He drew several walks, but his strikeout totals were quite a bit higher than expected.  Christian’s swing gets long at time, which leaves him prone to being exploited by advanced pitchers, especially on pitches in on the hands.

2009 Outlook: Christian has the looks of a 5th round steal.  His blend of skills and left-handed bat makes him a highly intriguing prospect for the 2009 season.  He should begin the season at either Low-A Kane County again or, perhaps, at High-A Stockton.  Either way, his ranking on this list is probably way too low and, with Oakland’s dearth of viable shortstop talent, his track to the major leagues could move quickly. 

 Ok, I can’t count…here’s a bonus addition to the list.

21.)  Brandon Hicks—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats: 

Strengths: Power and lots of it.  Hicks is well built with a right handed swing that produces fence clearing power from foul pole to foul pole.  His sure hands and strong arm make him an above average defensive player as well.  Despite his thick 6-2 200 lb. frame, Hicks possesses excellent speed that he uses well on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: Strikeouts and lots of them.  Hicks has a high leg kick (see picture above) that occasionally throws off his timing and creates holes in his swing.  Hicks’ all or nothinig approach at the plate does not always serve him well in situations limits most of his production to the left side of the field, mitigating his batting average and run production. 

2009 Outlook: AA will be a big transition for Hicks.  He needs to cut back on his swing or he will be eaten alive and likely booted off of this list.  If he can refine his plate discipline, however, he has the potential to be the top power hitting shortstop in the minor leagues.  What he does with his swing will dictate whether he moves up this list or off of it.

Others to consider: Hector Gomez, Tyler Greene, Juan Silverio, Ehire Adrianza, Niko Vasquez, Andrew Romine, Argenis Diaz, Casey Kelly (his potential future as a pitcher keeps him off of this list). 

OOF!  That list took a long time to complete.  I ran into some formatting nightmares that gobbled up way too much time that I could have dedicated to our next list.  Let me know your thoughts about this list.  The bottom half of it was especially difficult as many of the prospects featured similar skills.  Overall, I think there is a lot of upside to this list that has yet to be fully discovered.  2009 should be a fun season!

Oakland A’s Send Matt Murton to the Rockies

Posted by Jeremy on February 5, 2009 under MLB Trade Analysis | Be the First to Comment

Yesterday, the Oakland Athleteics dealt 27 year old OF Matt Murton to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for speedy 2B prospect Corey Wimberly.    On the surface, this deal seems quite minor, yet it could show us just a little bit more about each club’s plans in 2009.  From a prospecting perspective, here is my take on the deal and how it affects each piece (directly or indirectly) involved.

Matt Murton: Murton’s move to Colorado and the National League is like fertilizer to his withering Oakland-choked statistics.  However, he will still be a reserve outfielder and, at age 27, he has officially made the transition from prospect to journeyman–a kiss of death to rookie card values. 

Corey Wimberly: A super utility guy in the mold of Angels spark plug Chone Figgins, Wimberley can play 2B, 3B, SS, and all three OF positions.  He has blazing speed and a power-free line drive bat.  From a collecting perspective, he is not ever going to be a hobby hot list favorite, but there are several opportunities for Wimberly to work his way into Oakland’s lineup as Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez are sure bets to spend time on the DL at some point in ‘09.  He is a good candidate to be a top of the lineup speed demon that Oakland has lacked for several years.  His 1st year cards are in the various 2006 Bowman sets.  If you can find a refractor or serial numbered card for cheap (under 5 bucks), it could see a short term value bump at some point in 2009. 

Eric Young Jr.: Wimberly’s departure shows that the Rockies are quite confident that the terror of the Arizona Fall League is quite ready to be their future second baseman.  Young’s power spike and 20 SB this past fall demonstrates that he is a.) has the strength to drive the ball with more authority and b.) has fully recovered from his hamstring injury.  Young has the speed and base running wisdom (thanks to daddy) to be a league leader some day.  Stolen bases, while not as sexy as power numbers, do generate hobby buzz and demand.  Many base thieves tend to be “Punch and Judy” hitters, but Young’s stellar fall numbers gives me optimism that he can be a force to be reckoned with atop Colorado’s young lineup…perhaps as early as April.  Young’s 1st year cards can be found in various Bowman Products as well.  He’s close to being a member of the Rockies’ everyday lineup and, once he makes it, his cards should start to take off.

Top 20 Catching Prospects in ‘09

Posted by Jeremy on January 29, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Here’s the first of a nine part series that will detail the top 20 prospects from each of the various positions on the diamond. Each profile offers only a brief overview.  For more detailed analysis, check out my other site Hot-Prospects.  The prototypical catcher has changed over the past decade or so. Gone are the days of the unathletic and offensively inept backstop. Today’s catching prospects have middle of the lineup bats, rocket arms and good athletic skills. This batch offers no exception and its headliner may just be the best overall prospect in baseball this season.

#1) Matt Wieters—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Um….everything.  You name it, his bat, plate discipline, glove, arm, power, leadership, and work ethic are all at elite levels and ready for major league action. 

Weaknesses: He won’t steal many bags, but then again, which catchers do?  Also, and this is nitpicking, his size evokes comparisons to Joe Mauer which leads me to have fleeting concerns about future injury struggles.  Wieters has never had to miss action in the past, however, and shows no signs of slowing down yet.

2009 Outlook: The O’s signed Greg Zaun in the offseason as insurance for Wieters.  There’s no doubt that he is ready to start in the big leagues, but Baltimore may opt to keep him at AAA Norfolk just long enough hold back the hands of the arbitration clock.  A strong spring could and should make that a moot point.  Once he emerges, he is a top candidate for A.L. Rookie of the Year honors and for many future All-Star seasons.

2.) Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Posey’s bat is electric, slashing deep drives to the gaps and down the lines.  He batted .469 with 23 HR and 93 RBI with the Florida State Seminoles this past season.  He has stellar plate discpline and hand eye coordination.  A converted SS, Posey may be the most athletic catching prospect in baseball with plus defensive skills and agility.

Weaknesses: It is unclear how much power Buster will hit for as a pro.  He had one big power season with an aluminium bat but has been more of a line drive guy since.  He has high upside behind the plate, but is still learning the subtle nuances of the position.

2009 Outlook: The Giants are excited to pair him up with top pitching prospects Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson at High-A San Jose.  Those three will serve as integral pieces in shaping the future success of the Giants organization and the outlook for that happening is quite good.

3.) Jesus Montero—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His bat is golden.  In his first full season, Montero demonstrated that he can hit for a high average and that his power, while good now, has a chance to be great.  Unlike many young hitters, Montero doesn’t strike out too much and he seems to be quite willing to grind out walks 

Weaknesses: His glove is not golden.  Montero’s size affects his agility behind the dish and his quickness in throwing out baserunners (26 of 105).  His 6-4 225 lb. body is not done growing either which should mean that a switch to 1B or DH will soon follow.

2009 Outlook: It’s on to High-A Tampa for Montero to see if he can continue his torrid hitting.  Expect some of those 34 doubles from last season to become HR’s this season and, with the success of Austin Romine (more on him later) behind the dish, expect to see Jesus with a 1B or DH behind his name more often.

4.) Carlos Santana—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His thunderous bat broke through big time in ‘08.  He produces surprising power with a compact swing and fast hands.  His plate discipline is top notch and he has a knack for driving in runs in clutch situations. 

Weaknesses: While he has good receiving skills, his arm is inaccurate (34 of 127 CS) and his release time is below average.  These things shouldn’t deter him from sticking as a catcher, though.  Santana had a great season, but the ability for him to repeat it is yet to be known.

2009 Outlook: Santana will move on to AA Akron where he had a cameo last season.  Heisted from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade, Santana is fully capable of becoming an exceptional option to fill the void behind the plate in Cleveland that Victor Martinez leaves behind. 

5.) Tyler Flowers—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: If the Arizona Fall League performance from Mr. Flowers (.387 12 HR 23 RBI 25 runs in 20 games) is any indication, Tyler may have more power than any other catching prospect in baseball.  With his 6-4 245 lb. frame Flowers can hit just about any pitch out of the ballpark.  Flowers is a highly selective hitter as well walking 98 times in ‘08.

Weaknesses: Like Jesus Montero, Flowers will be hard pressed to stay behind the plate.  His enormous size and below average athleticism makes him a more ideal candidate for one of the infield corner positons.

2009 Outlook: Now as a memeber of the White Sox, Flowers should move on to AA Birmingham or AAA Charlotte for the start to the 2009 season.  Expect Flowers to dramatically exceed his Myrtle Beach HR totals (17) this season.

#6.) J.P. Arencibia—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A powerful bat that can hit 20-25 HR per season at the MLB level and improving defensive tools to go with his top notch leadership skills.

Weaknesses: His plate discipline is awful (18 BB/101 K) and he is a prototypical base-clogging catcher.

2009 Outlook: Arencibia’s power is intriguing, but he is not ready to make his MLB debut.  He should play the entire season at AAA Syracuse before earning a few Rogers Centre AB’s in September.

7.) Lou Marson—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Marson has a line drive bat that produces occasional power to the gaps and should hit for a high batting average in Philly.  His plate discipline is also very good and his receiving skills makes him one of the better defensive backstops in the minor leagues.

Weaknesses: In a position that is becoming increasingly populated with power hitters, Marson has yet to demonstrate much.  If it does come around, he may find himself bumped up a notch or two on this list.

2009 Outlook: Marson got a look last season and performed quite well, but the post season heroics of Carlos Ruiz should mean that the 22 year old Marson will head to AAA Lehigh Valley to start the season.  He’ll be back up at some point—hopefully with a little added thunder in his bat.

8.) Taylor Teagarden—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Teagarden has elite defensive skills.  Baserunners simply do not run on him like they do other minor league catchers.  He has the potential to be a 20 HR hitter in the major leagues and his brief stint in Texas was nothing short of impressive.

Weaknesses: Injuries have cost Teagarden costly development time early in his career.  His subpar performances in two hitter-friendly environments (Frisco and Oklahoma City) raises the question “Who is thre REAL Taylor Teagarden?”

2009 Outlook: The Rangers are flush with young catchers.  There have been some trade rumors swirling around one of them (more likely Saltalamacchia or Ramirez) heading to Boston.  Teagarden’s defensive advantages supercedes both Salty and Max Ram’s offensive upsides.  Expect Teagarden to get the majority of AB’s in Texas this season.

#9) Jonathan Lucroy—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lucroy has surprising power from his average sized frame and he blends it with above average plate discipline.  His defensive skills are underrated as he gunned down 49 % of would be base stealers and earned a .989 fielding %.

Weaknesses: Lucroy’s athleticism has probably peaked already and there is a chance that his numbers may slip a little as he progresses against more advanced competition. 

2009 Outlook: He’ll start at AA Huntsville and may get a look at AAA Nashville at some point this season.  Angel Salome’s sterling ‘08 season has placed him in Milwaukee’s immediate plans, but Lucroy’s blend of skills is considerably better and it is only a matter of time until he surpasses Salome.

10.) Angel Salome—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Salome makes good contact at the plate and peppers line drives all over the field.  He is compact and powerfully built and his athleticism and arm strength are both above average.

Weaknesses: Salome’s receiving skills and arm accuracy are rudimentary at this point.  Also, while he has good power to the gaps, he will likely be a 10-15 HR hitter in the major leagues.  Salome’s mechanics at the plate have been characterized as “unconventional” and “ugly but effective”.  This could lead to problems against pitchers paid to exploit those flaws.

2009 Outlook: Salome is a better option than any of the three other receivers on Milwaukee’s roster.  He will be given a shot at earning a spot in the Brewers’ opening day lineup.  If he doesn’t succeed, he will head back to AAA Nashville and wait for his opportunity.

11.) Hank Conger—L.A. Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Conger can flat out hit.  He has power from both sides of the plate and has a knack for driving in runs in bunches.  He has a good approach at the plate and is aggressive with pitches in the strike zone.    His arm strength is also quite strong.

Weaknesses: Conger is a walking M.A.S.H. unit.  He has missed time in each of his first three seasons suffering from various maladies.  Behind the plate, Conger’s skills are below average and a move to 1B or DH seems to be in the making.

2009 Outlook: Hopefully it is a healthy one.  He’ll start at AA Arkansas with a promotion to Salt Lake City being a possibility.  The Angels would love to get his bat into their lineup in some capacity or another by mid-2010.

12.) Kyle Skipworth—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Power, power, power.  Skipworth has it from foul pole to foul pole and the fact that it comes from the left hand side of the plate makes him even more valuable.  He has a cannon for an arm and he is not afraid to use it to nab unaware baserunners.

Weaknesses: His other skills behind the plate are quite sloppy.  He has hard hands and his large size makes affects his coordination and quickness at blocking balls in the dirt and rising from a crouch.  His debut with the GCL league also showed that he needs some work on his plate discipline as well.

2009 Outlook: The Marlins should give Skipworth a shot a full season Low-A ball this year at Greensboro.  If he struggles early on, he may go back down to short season Jamestown.  The future is very bright for this youngster, he just needs time.

13.) Brett Lawrie—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats: Not Available

Strengths: Lawrie had one of the most intriguing prep bats in the 2008 draft.  He has plus-plus power potential and exceptional bat speed.  Additionally, his athleticism could eventually make him a solid defensive player behind the plate.

Weaknesses: Rawness and inexperience.  There are quite a few unknowns about how Lawrie will develop defensively and he may need to shift to another position if catching doesn’t take.

2009 Outlook: With both Salome and Lucroy already experiencing success in the system.  The Brewers will opt to take their time with Lawrie.  He should get some work at extended spring training before joining the Brewers’ short season affiliate Helena.

14.) Max Ramirez—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Max Ram has an explosive bat that hits for a high average and good power to all fields.  He is an aggressive hitter who makes good contact and drives in runs by the bunches.

Weaknesses: He is a terrible defensive catcher.  The Rangers have tried to find a different position for him to play (1B, LF, DH) and the odds are pretty good that his future resides with one of them.

2009 Outlook: Ramirez’s Venezuelan Winter League stint (.298 15 HR 53 RBI) has the Rangers abuzz about his potential in their lineup, but there are log jams at every stop.  I think his future in Texas will not be long lived.  The Rangers need pitching and he is one of the best young bats that they have available for trade.

#15.) Derek Norris—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Norris drew 63 walks in 70 games at short season baseball.  He has an athletic and powerful catcher’s build that profiles to hit for power and average as well.  He has good speed for a catcher and will steal the occasional base.  Defensively, Norris has solid all around skills and a strong arm that gunned out 47 % of potential base stealers last season.

Weaknesses: Norris needs to prove he can continue this success at full season ball.  He could cut his K rate back a little bit as well.

2009 Projection: Full season Low-A Harrisburg seems to be the likely destination for Norris.  There is quite a bit of upside in this young receiver’s game and he could find himself much higher on this list next season.

16.) Wilin Rosario—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Rosario’s bat has the potential to be a middle of the lineup run producer that hits 20-25 HR per season with a high batting average.  He is an aggressive hitter who have excellent bat speed and wiry strength.  His arm is a force to be reckoned with as he vanquished 46% of potential base stealers in ‘08.

Weaknesses: His high energy approach tends to make him overly aggressive at the plate at times.  He will be challenged to continue his stellar numbers at the next level.  It will be important for him to work counts more effectively to avoid a drop off.

2009 Outlook: Low-A Asheville awaits Rosario.  This should be an environment where his bat will continue to flourish.  Like Derek Norris, another fine season from Wilin Rosario will bump him considerably higher on next season’s list.

17.) Adam Moore—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Moore is big and strong (6-3 220 lb.) and his bat shows it.  He is not just a masher, though.  Moore hits the ball well to all fields and has a sound approach at the plate in all situations.  He is a solid game caller and should be a vocal leader in the clubhouse.

Weaknesses:He has made good strides in his defensive game, due in large part to extensive work with M’s catching instructor Roger Hanson.  However, his large frame has a negative effect on his mobility, as testified by his 44 passed balls over the past two seasons.

2009 Outlook: The M’s have Kenji Johjima and Matt Clement blocking Moore’s opportunities in Seattle, but he won’t be far away.  He’ll play the majority of the season at AAA Tacoma and will continue to work on his agility behind the dish.  Expect a call up in September.

18.) Austin Romine—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Romine’s first season offensive numbers were icing on the cake to many analysts who are more enamored with his athleticism and elite arm strength.  Romine showed that he could be an offensive force as well who hits for a good average and solid power numbers.

Weaknesses:Romine didn’t put his defensive abilities to good use in ‘08, throwing out just 20 of 98 base runners and allowing 18 passed balls. 

2009 Outlook: Romine continues alongside fellow catching prospect Jesus Montero to High-A Tampa for more development.  It will be interesting to see how the Yankees organization addresses this developing situation.  The best bet is that Montero will be the one who shifts to 1B.

19.) Bryan Anderson—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Anderson has a line drive bat and highly developed plate discipline.  He is an intelligent player who has a great feel for calling pitches and commanding a pitching staff.  He should hit for a high average at the major league and play solid defense.

Weaknesses: The power has not developed yet, as Anderson’s career high for HR’s in a season is 6.  He is an average athlete who has a low ceiling for development.

2009 Outlook: Anderson’s path to St. Louis is obscured by Yadier Molina who is entering the prime of his career and is under contract through at least 2011.  Likely, Bryan will be playing everyday at AAA Springfield again in hopes that he can develop a little more pop in his bat to draw attention of the Cardinals’ brass.

20.) Wilson Ramos—Minnesota Twins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Ramos is very strong with good bat speed that produces power to all fields.  He is a good athlete as well with above average quickness for a catcher and a strong, accurate arm (43% CS rate in ‘08).

Weaknesses: His aggressiveness can get him in trouble at times at the plate.  He strikes out too much and walks too little (37 BB/103 K).

2009 Outlook:  AA New Britain will provide a good challenge for Ramos this season and give us all abetter look at his potential going forward.  If he can hone his plate discipline, he should move up this list.  If not, he could find himself off of it.

Others to consider:

Luis Exposito, Jason Castro, Josh Donaldson, Mike McKenry, Francisco Pena, Jacob Jefferies, Petey Paramore, Adrian Nieto,

Stay tuned for the next installment as we travel 90 ft. up the 1st base line to examine the formidable Top 20 1st Basemen.  If you enjoyed this series, feel free to check out some of the eBay links to some great auctions going on right now.  Use the comments list below to propose your top 20 catchers or comment on mine!

Your Daily Value #39

Posted by Jeremy on January 26, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects DEXTER FOWLER

Current eBay Value—$1.25-2.00

The time has come for the consensus #1 rated prospect in the Colorado Rockies organization to roam the spacious CF confines of Coors Field.  Fowler’s 2008 season was spent, in large part, at AA Tulsa where he put up his finest numbers to date hitting .335 with 9 HR 64 RBI 20 SB and 92 runs despite missing a month playing for Team USA in the Beijing Olympics. 

Fowler’s skill set places him in the elite class of prospects as there is no aspect of his game that deters his potential to be an MLB superstar.  He hits the ball well and has superb plate discipline, his plus-plus speed is well used on the basepaths as well as in CF where his range, instincts, and arm could make him a perennial Gold Glover.  The biggest question mark in his game right now is in determining his future power output.  He has never hit for double-digit HR’s in any season, but his 6-5 190 lb. frame has sinewy, fast twitch muscle strength that could easily facilitate future power growth without negatively affecting his speed or athleticism.  Fowler will be just 23 years old on opening day and is still a bit raw in some aspects of his game (he was a highly recruited basketball player in HS). 

Fowler’s debut cards were autographs #/603 in the 2004 Donruss Elite Extra set.  Today, those cards are still affordable at $28-32 each—roughly the same price as Brewers new ace Yovani Gallardo’s autos from the same set.  The 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects cards are much lower priced offerings and, though they are not 1st year cards, they are officially tabbed as his rookie cards.  Other fine 2006 cards of his can be found in Bowman Sterling ($2.50-4.00 each) and Bowman Originals ($0.75-1.25 each). 

The Rockies may opt to send Fowler to AAA for some more spring seasoning, but his ultimate ‘09 destination is surely Colorado.  Once he gets there, he should stay for a long and prosperous time.

Your Daily Value #28

Posted by Jeremy on January 11, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2004 Donruss Elite Extra SETH SMITH Auto #/1065

Current eBay Price—$3.00-4.50

• The window for Seth Smith’s success in Coors Field is small.  With the acquisition of Carlos Gonzalez and the progress of top prospect Dexter Fowler, the Rockies have all but cemented the future of their outfield for years to come.  That being said, it is no guarantee that either Gonzalez or Fowler will be ready by opening day and the departure of Matt Holliday has left a void in LF that should be filled by Smith.  Last season, Smith accumulated 108 AB’s with the Rockies hitting .259 with 4 HR and 15 RBI.  While this is quite below his minor league totals, he was able to maintain solid plate discipline and much of his struggles may be due to the fact that he was mainly used as a pinch hitter or late inning defensive replacement.  Given the opportunity to start, even in a platoon situation, Smith could, and should, hit .300 with 12-18 HR and 65-75 RBI.  Given the bargain basement prices of his first year autos and the fact that, at 26, Smith could be entering the prime of his career, this could be a card that approaches double digits in value by the end of spring.

Oakland A’s / Colorado Rockies Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 12, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

The much anticipated trade of Colorado Rockies slugger Matt Holliday has ben consumated and the Oakland Athletics are the beneficiaries.  In return the Rockies will receive A’s closer Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith, and top prospect Carlos Gonzalez.  Here’s a closer look at the effects this trade will have on all parties involved.

Matt Holliday—OF

• Holliday stands to lose the most from this deal as he moves from the comfy confines of Coors Field to the cavernous McAfee Stadium.  Holliday, unlike many Colorado hitters was fairly consistent both at home and on the road and his .321 BA with 25 HR 88 RBI and 28 SB should fit nicely in the middle of Oakland’s lineup.  That said, the transition to the American League has historically been very difficult for National League hitters and it is reasonable to expect a slight drop in Holliday’s numbers, especially in batting average.  Holliday, however, may not even finish the season in Oakland as his contract expires next season and you can be sure that the A’s will parlay him into prospects or compensatory draft picks at some point.

Huston Street—RHP

• Street is widely expected to be dealt again this off season as the Rockies seem determined to go with Manny Corpas as their closer in ‘09.  Street’s stock has slipped due to injury issues and inconsistency.  Also, the fact that many other closers (K-Rod, Trevor Hoffman, Brian Fuentes, etc..)seem to be on the market should dampen the demand on Street somewhat.  However when healthy, Street is a shut down closer with great stuff and greater control.  The problem is that Street’s “when” has increasingly become an “if”.

Greg Smith—LHP

• Smith was very effective early in the season for the A’s, but as teams got to see him multiple times, his stuff became quite mediocre and he was hit hard.  Smith is not overpowering and his off speed control has to be good in order for him to be effective.  Going to a hitter’s ballpark does not bode well for his future numbers and I think that Smith’s best numbers are behind him.

Carlos Gonzalez—OF

• Somewhere, Carlos has to be doing backflips after hearing of this deal.  Gonzalez struggled after his call up with Oakland hitting just .243 in a very mediocre linuep.  Now he gets to go to Colorado and nestle in with the likes of Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Garrett Atkins, Ian Stewart, and Brad Hawpe.  Gonzalez should flourish there and is likely to take a giant step forward in his development.  If you don’t have his cards now, get them before they shoot up in value.

Other parties affected:

Josh Outman—LHP

• Smith’s departure should open up more opportunities for another Oakland southpaw to get some innings as a back of the rotation starter.  Outman’s stuff is much more lively than Smith’s though his mastery of it needs refinement.  This trade is evidence that Oakland GM Billy Beane is confident that both Outman and Gio Gonzalez should take big steps forward this season.

In the long run, this trade will work out well for both parties.  The A’s have gotten themselves a rental player who will give them much needed punch to the middle of their lineup.  Then, they will be able to parlay Holliday into new prospects and/or players that will add to the richness of their already talented farm system.  The Rockies have received a future star, some pitching depth, and a decent trade chip for a player that they knew that they would not be able to re-sign.  Was this the best possible deal that they could make?  Likely not, but it shouldn’t hurt them in the end.

Recent MLB Call-Up #5—Dexter Fowler

Posted by Jeremy on September 9, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Gen Y's Eric Davis?

Dexter Fowler

I’ve written a few tidbits about the Colorado Rockies phenom and now his time as a major league player has come.  Last season, injuries marred Fowler’s productivity, limiting him to just 65 games in which he hit 2 HR and 23 RBI.  This season, Fowler has been healthy and produced in congruence to his top prospect status.  Though he missed a month playing for the Bronze Medal winning US national team, Fowler hit .335 with 9 HR 64 RBI 92 runs and 20 SB for AA Tulsa.  Additionally, his 65 BB/89 K’s shows that he has an advanced grasp of the strike zone.

Colorado is on the outer fringes of the pennant chase, trailing the L.A. Dodgers by 6 games as of today.  That has limited Fowler’s playing time to just one AB and one awful pinch running experience (he was picked off by Benji Molina). As September rolls on, the Rockies will fall out of the playoff hunt and Fowler will accrue more AB’s.  Additionally, he is slated to participate in the Arizona Fall League.

He reminds me so much of Alexis Rios in body type and athleticism.  His power is not at the level of Rios’ yet, but I am optimistic that this will develop.  Fowler hit 30 doubles and 9 triples this year which shows that he has more power to come.  Additionally, his 6-5 195 lb. frame can easily accept 15-20 more pounds of muscle without drastically impacting his speed.  He is much more refined at the plate, on the basepaths, and defensively than Rios which makes his ceiling precipitously greater.  Dexter has 1st year cards in only one set, 2004 Donruss Elite Extra.  His autographs (#’ed to 643) sell for $35-40 each and his first chrome cards in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects set sell for $1.50-2.00 each. 

Fowler is an All-Star in the making and all of his cards, both spendy and cheap, are great value buys at their current prices.

Koshansky Re-Cycles

Posted by Jeremy on August 13, 2008 under Market Watch | 2 Comments to Read

MLB regular or AAAA denizen?

For the second time this season, Colorado Rockies 1B prospect Joe Koshansky has hit for the cycle for AAA Colorado Springs in last night’s 21-5 pasting of Tuscon.  Koshansky scored 5 times and drove in 3 runs, joining Cleveland Indians prospect Carlos Santana as the first players to surpass the 100 RBI this season. 

Koshansky struggled in his call up with the Rockies earlier this season going 4-22 with 2 HR and 10 K’s in 8 games.  Koshansky, though, has proven to be a prolific power hitter at each minor league stop over the last 4 seasons tallying over 100 RBI’s at each stop.  Koshansky has been bit by the strikeout bug each season though, which hampers him from being a top-flight prospect. 

With Todd Helton, fat contract and all, firmly entrenched at 1B for the Rockies for the next couple of seasons, Koshansky is a man desperate for a change in scenery.  The Rockies should promote him, especially with Helton sidelined until at least September and Jeff Baker struggling in August, to showcase his powerful bat.

Market Advice: Koshansky’s had a couple of swings at major league pitching already and has missed badly.  If you have his stuff, as I do, HOLD it and see if the third time is the charm for him.  I have a hunch that he will wear a different uniform come April ‘09.