Hot Prospect Profile—DESMOND JENNINGS

Posted by Jeremy on May 6, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

He’s Baaaaack! 

Last year’s injury riddled season deflated some helium out of the hype balloon that the young Rays OF prospect created with a stellar 2007 season that saw him hit .315 with 9 HR 37 RBI 45 SB and 75 runs scored in just 99 games at Low-A Columbus.  Jennings missed the first two months of the ‘08 season recovering from a back injury and played just 24 games at High-A Vero Beach before he had season ending shoulder surgery.  Jennings recovered in time to make a brief appearance in the Arizona Fall League where he batted .231 with a HR, 7 RBI and 3 SB in 12 games. 

What I wrote on 11/24/08 for Hot-Prospects.net:

2008 was a lost season for the Rays’ top OF prospect.  Jennings was limited to just 24 games during the regular season as he suffered a lower back injury and had season ending shoulder surgery.  Jennings returned to play in the second half of the Arizona Fall League hitting .231 with a HR 7 RBI and 3 SB in 39 AB.  When healthy, Jennings is a bright 5-tool athlete who turned down a scholarship to play WR at Alabama to pursue his baseball career.  Jennings has blazing speed and a line drive bat that drives the ball well to the gaps.  His long lean frame projects that he could add more power to be a 15-20 HR hitter down the road.  Jennings makes good contact at the plate and his advanced strike zone knowledge helps him to draw walks as well.  Defensively, Jennings utilizes his eye-popping speed to cover vast swathes of space in CF and his arm strength is solid.  The biggest variable to Jennings’ game is his inability to stay healthy.  Jennings has had knee surgery, shoulder surgery, and back problems within the past two years, hampering his development as a pro.  If he can stay healthy for a sustained amount of time, Desmond is a top-tier future lead-off hitter with All-Star written all over him.

2009 Projection: Jennings’ involvement in the AFL gives the notion that the Rays would like to challenge him with a promotion to AA Montgomery to start the season.  Keep an eye on the injury reports and cross your fingers that he doesn’t find his way on the DL next season.  If he can reproduce the success that he enjoyed in 2007 at Low-A Columbus, Jennings should move quickly through the Rays’ system with an ETA of mid-summer 2010 being a good possibility.  The Rays could use a good lead off hitter with base stealing speed to set the table for Upton-Longoria-Pena.  Jennings could be just the right fit.

UPDATE: Jennings has been red hot since being promoted to AA Montgomery, batting .391 with 3 HR 21 RBI 9 SB and 20 runs scored in just 27 games.  Additionally, he has combined to hit 7 doubles and 5 triples during that same time frame.  The increase in power output has had a slightly detrimental effect on plate discipline as his 6 BB/19 K ratio is less than the stellar numbers he put up in 2007 (45 BB/53 K). 

MARKET REPORT:  Prospectors are elated with the early success that the 22 year old Tampa Bay Ray has displayed and the market has responded in kind.  Per card prices of his 2008 Donruss Threads Autograph (#’ed/749) has increased by more than 400% (I bought one at $4.65) since last November, currently commanding prices of $20-22.50 each.  His first year Bowman Chrome base cards are starting to get some more market attention as well as bulk lots have been selling at per card prices of $1.50-2.00 each.

MY TAKE: Jennings is assuredly one of the most athletic and toolsy OF prospects in minor league baseball.  His total package of skills easily places him with the elite at that position and there is more room for projection.  At 6-2 190 lb., there is reason to believe that Jennings can develop more HR power while not significantly affecting his already elite speed.  The main rub with Desmond, however, is the propensity for injuries.  His two maladies from last season were not the first as an injury to his lateral miniscus in late 2007 marks three significant injuries sustained in less than two seasons.  Players that sustain injuries at young ages have time and again recovered from them to put together long and successful careers.  Conversely, injuries have also derailed many a promising career before the player’s full potential is ever realized.

I don’t know where Jennings lies on this list.  He appears to be fully healthy and his numbers to this point are eye popping.  But the spectre always looms and is some cause for concern.  I like the prices of his first year base cards (non-chromes are even cheaper) in bulk and would avocate buying them, but as for his auto….I’ll be happy with my 400% profit and will be selling it now.

Key Desmond Jennings Cards on Current eBay Auctions: