Hot Prospect Profile—DESMOND JENNINGS

Posted by Jeremy on May 6, 2009 under Hot Prospect Profile | Be the First to Comment

Now Healthy and Using His Tools Well

He’s Baaaaack! 

Last year’s injury riddled season deflated some helium out of the hype balloon that the young Rays OF prospect created with a stellar 2007 season that saw him hit .315 with 9 HR 37 RBI 45 SB and 75 runs scored in just 99 games at Low-A Columbus.  Jennings missed the first two months of the ‘08 season recovering from a back injury and played just 24 games at High-A Vero Beach before he had season ending shoulder surgery.  Jennings recovered in time to make a brief appearance in the Arizona Fall League where he batted .231 with a HR, 7 RBI and 3 SB in 12 games. 

What I wrote on 11/24/08 for Hot-Prospects.net:

2008 was a lost season for the Rays’ top OF prospect.  Jennings was limited to just 24 games during the regular season as he suffered a lower back injury and had season ending shoulder surgery.  Jennings returned to play in the second half of the Arizona Fall League hitting .231 with a HR 7 RBI and 3 SB in 39 AB.  When healthy, Jennings is a bright 5-tool athlete who turned down a scholarship to play WR at Alabama to pursue his baseball career.  Jennings has blazing speed and a line drive bat that drives the ball well to the gaps.  His long lean frame projects that he could add more power to be a 15-20 HR hitter down the road.  Jennings makes good contact at the plate and his advanced strike zone knowledge helps him to draw walks as well.  Defensively, Jennings utilizes his eye-popping speed to cover vast swathes of space in CF and his arm strength is solid.  The biggest variable to Jennings’ game is his inability to stay healthy.  Jennings has had knee surgery, shoulder surgery, and back problems within the past two years, hampering his development as a pro.  If he can stay healthy for a sustained amount of time, Desmond is a top-tier future lead-off hitter with All-Star written all over him.

2009 Projection: Jennings’ involvement in the AFL gives the notion that the Rays would like to challenge him with a promotion to AA Montgomery to start the season.  Keep an eye on the injury reports and cross your fingers that he doesn’t find his way on the DL next season.  If he can reproduce the success that he enjoyed in 2007 at Low-A Columbus, Jennings should move quickly through the Rays’ system with an ETA of mid-summer 2010 being a good possibility.  The Rays could use a good lead off hitter with base stealing speed to set the table for Upton-Longoria-Pena.  Jennings could be just the right fit.

UPDATE: Jennings has been red hot since being promoted to AA Montgomery, batting .391 with 3 HR 21 RBI 9 SB and 20 runs scored in just 27 games.  Additionally, he has combined to hit 7 doubles and 5 triples during that same time frame.  The increase in power output has had a slightly detrimental effect on plate discipline as his 6 BB/19 K ratio is less than the stellar numbers he put up in 2007 (45 BB/53 K). 

MARKET REPORT:  Prospectors are elated with the early success that the 22 year old Tampa Bay Ray has displayed and the market has responded in kind.  Per card prices of his 2008 Donruss Threads Autograph (#’ed/749) has increased by more than 400% (I bought one at $4.65) since last November, currently commanding prices of $20-22.50 each.  His first year Bowman Chrome base cards are starting to get some more market attention as well as bulk lots have been selling at per card prices of $1.50-2.00 each.

MY TAKE: Jennings is assuredly one of the most athletic and toolsy OF prospects in minor league baseball.  His total package of skills easily places him with the elite at that position and there is more room for projection.  At 6-2 190 lb., there is reason to believe that Jennings can develop more HR power while not significantly affecting his already elite speed.  The main rub with Desmond, however, is the propensity for injuries.  His two maladies from last season were not the first as an injury to his lateral miniscus in late 2007 marks three significant injuries sustained in less than two seasons.  Players that sustain injuries at young ages have time and again recovered from them to put together long and successful careers.  Conversely, injuries have also derailed many a promising career before the player’s full potential is ever realized.

I don’t know where Jennings lies on this list.  He appears to be fully healthy and his numbers to this point are eye popping.  But the spectre always looms and is some cause for concern.  I like the prices of his first year base cards (non-chromes are even cheaper) in bulk and would avocate buying them, but as for his auto….I’ll be happy with my 400% profit and will be selling it now.

Key Desmond Jennings Cards on Current eBay Auctions:

Your Daily Value #41

Posted by Jeremy on January 28, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2008 Donruss Threads GERARDO PARRA Auto #/999

Current eBay Price—$4.00-6.00

While flame throwing youngster Jarrod Parker sits atop the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hierarchy of elite prospects, this young Venezuelan OF quietly fills the #2 spot in just about every analyst’s list.  Parra handled the challenges of both High-A and AA ball last season admirably, hitting .286 with 6 HR 52 RBI and 28 SB.  Parra has the ability to play any OF position with superb range and a very strong arm and his solid plate discipline would be a welcome change of pace from the currently whiff-prone D’Backs lineup.

The question mark with Parra is his power numbers.  His bat speed is exceptional, but his swing trajectory is more condusive to producing line drives with moderate gap power.  However, Parra’s statistics from the Venezuelan Winter League offers substantial hope.  Gerrardo hit .329 with 7 HR 44 RBI and a league leading 20 doubles in 246 AB’s.  Given those numbers, it is conceivable that he could develop into a 10-15 HR hitter this next season.

Arizona’s roster is presently set with Justin Upton and Chris Young manning RF and CF respectively.  Eric Byrnes will get another shot at the starting job in LF after injuries ravaged his productivity last season and the fact that his contract pays him a guaranteed $21 million through 2010, it seems highly unlikely that he will be going anywhere.  This should put Parra at AAA Tuscon to start the season, but a solid spring and/or another Byrnes injury should allow for him to make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09.

2008 offers several 1st year autos of Gerardo Parra.  The Donruss Threads (#/999) and Bowman’s Signs of the Future are the least expensive at just $3-5 each.  There is a little more demand for his Donruss Elite Extra Auto ($6-8 each) due to the fact that it is numbered to just 421 copies.  I don’t think that Parra has the same potential to be a superstar like his future OF counterparts Upton and Young, but his comprehensive skill set should fit very well in the leadoff or #2 spot of this Arizona lineup.

Neftali Feliz Sizzling the Gun at 102 MPH

Posted by Jeremy on January 24, 2009 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

10-6 2.69 ERA 151 K's in '08

Once again I was parusing through the MLB news and notes and happened upon an article chronicling the progress of top Texas Ranger hurlers Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz.  Reports have it that both pitchers are looking great in spring workouts and that the rumor that Feliz can hit 102 MPH are indeed true.  Feliz should begin the ‘09 season pitching at AAA Oklahoma City which should be a good challenge for him as it is a very hitting condusive environment and will hopefully give us a precursor for what we can expect from him once he makes it to Arlington.  That should happen at some during the regular season, especially now that Eric Hurley will be sidelined for the entire season.

The market for Feliz’s ‘08 autos is quite active right now with his various Donruss-made autos selling in the $25-35 range.  Ugh, I really like Feliz’s upside, but spending that much on a pitcher goes against just about every prospecting bone in my body.  The best bet may be to wait and see what he does in spring training as well as the early part of the season.  Early struggles may lead to a down market period that could be more advantageous to adding a card or two to your inventory.

If you just can’t wait and need to get a piece of this future star right now, believe me…I understand!  Here are some fine auctions available right now for the Rangers flame throwing phenom.

Your Daily Value #34

Posted by Jeremy on January 22, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2008 Donruss Threads JUAN SILVERIO Auto #/999

Current eBay Price—$3.50-5.00

On the surface, it would appear that the 17 year old Dominican shortstop had a disappointing ‘08 season, hitting just .228 with 2 HR 35 RBI and 31 runs scored in 59 games at short season Bristol.  His 8 BB/56 K’s revealed an extreme amount of rawness in his approach at the plate.  Nevertheless, there is quite a bit of untapped talent yet to be discovered in this young man.  His 6-1 175 lb. frame has wiry strength right now, but should build more muscle down the road.  His quick bat and surprising strength reminds several scouts of Miguel Tejada.  He’s got good range and a strong arm at SS, but his 24 errors last season indicates that a change to 3B may be in order, especially if he develops Tejada-like bulk in the future. 

He’s far from a sure bet, but his offensive upside is much higher than the paltry prices of his 2008 Donruss Threads auto.  This is his only card to date and, if he develops as the White Sox hope he will, this card will be a big time bargain!

Top Caribbean Winter League Performer #3

Posted by Jeremy on January 19, 2009 under Prospects in Products | Be the First to Comment

3.) JUAN FRANCISCO—Cincinnati Reds 3B

It’s been quite a homecoming for the big lefty-hitting denizen of the hot corner.  The average, HR’s RBIs and runs scored are all immensely impressive, but the fact that he has cut back his strikeouts and is working counts more effectively is a positive sign for Francisco.  Just this past season, Juan’s 19 BB/123 K’s put a big black smudge on his otherwise snappy FSL season.  The Reds have depth at 3B with Todd Frazier and Neftali Soto also in the mix.  Francisco has more power potential than either one of these guys but the plate discipline absolutely must improve if he is to sustain his level of success.  AA should offer a substantial challenge for the 21 year old and how he handles it will serve as a primary indicator of the success, or lack thereof, that we can expect from him in the future.

Your Daily Value #30

Posted by Jeremy on January 13, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

2007 Bowman Chrome Draft SEAN DOOLITTLE

Current eBay Price—$.40-.60 each

This former Virginia Cavalier was a supplimental 1st round pick by the A’s in the ‘07 draft.  Doolittle was a fine two way player in college, though his upside as a hitter and gold glove caliber 1B prospect trumped his potential as a southpaw moundsman.  Those who scouted Doolittle felt that he was a very polished hitter with fringe average power and an outstanding glove much in the veins of a Mark Grace-type player. 

Something happened, however, and Doolittle’s 2008 power numbers (.286 22 HR 91 RBI 40 doubles 89 runs scored) between High-A Stockton and AA Midland) have come as a pleasant surprise.  Additionally, Doolittle has proven to be a pretty darn good athlete who not only is a good defensive 1B, but also an above average RF with a strong arm.  While he walked at a good rate in ‘08 (62 BB) his 153 K’s in 139 games needs to be cut back significantly.  Doolittle has never had a history of high K totals.  In fact, at Virginia he walked about twice as much as he struck out.  The elvevated K rate may be due to adjusting his swing to faciliate more power production, but it still bears watching over this next season.

What can we expect for 2009?  Doolittle played extremely well in the Arizona Fall League (.294 8 HR 26 RBI 25 runs scored in 32 games) which should probably guarantee him an extended look in spring training.  I think that he will head to AAA Sacramento and put up some good power numbers in the PCL.  The A’s made some good additions to their lineup with the off season trade for Matt Holliday and the free agent signing of Jason Giambi.  This, of course, adds to the depth of the A’s roster at both the OF and 1B positions…not good news for Mr. Doolittle in ‘09.  However, the Giambi contract is a one year deal and the A’s are assuredly going to either trade Holliday or collect two 1st round picks once he signs with another team following the ‘09 season.  This should give Doolittle ample time to work out some of K-related kinks at AAA with a late season call up to Oakland being a distinct possibility. 

From a market prospective, Doolittle’s only true 1st year cards are in the ‘07 Bowman Draft and Chrome set.  These can still be had in copious amounts on eBay from time to time and, at less than 50 cents each, are solid lot-sized acquisitions.  The refractors and X-fractors can be had for $3-6 each as well and the blue refractors have been selling for $12-15. 

Additionally, I think there will be some value in his two main autographed cards. The 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Collegiate Patch Auto and 2008 Donruss Threads Gold Signature (#/249) currently sell for $10-15 each.  Personally, I am a big fan of the patch autos, but some collectors are not too hot on them.  The fact that that those are his only true non-minor league autos at this point means that they could see some increased market demand if and when Doolittle gets called up to the big club.  

Given that Doolittle defensively plays two positions very well and fits into Oakland’s Moneyball-type hitting philosophy, it is reasonable to believe that he will be a good long term fixture in the middle part of this A’s lineup for years to come.  Doolittle should be a .270-.285 hitter with 20-25 HR and 70-85 RBI as a major league hitter.  While not All-Star numbers, they should at least bump his Bowman Chrome Draft cards into the $1.50-2.00 range by some time later this season. 

As always, your thoughts and contributions are welcome additions to this blog. 

If you found this or any other info on my blog helpful, check out the eBay auction links and consider making your prospecting acquisitions through the eBay links on this site.  Every successful winning bid from you gives me a little jingle in the pockets and allows me to continue to bring you more prospecting info on a daily basis!

Your Daily Value #26

Posted by Jeremy on January 4, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Read the First Comment

Today I offer for you a double dose of Elvis…Andrus that is!  Typically, I am a staunch advocate for the supremacy of 1st year cards, but it seems that the industry is increasingly trending towards establishing autographed cards of all prospects rather than a select few.  Andrus is an interesting case, however, as his first autographed cards (from major manufacturers) occur two years after the debut of his first year card.  That fact alone may curry just enough market interest in his first year offering to help it avoid the obsolescence that many other base cards from top prospects inevitably suffer.  With out further ado, here are two cards that you can’t help falling in love with.

2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects ELVIS ANDRUS

Current eBay Price—$2.00-3.00

2008 Donruss Threads ELVIS ANDRUS Auto #/749

Current eBay Price—$6.00-8.00

• This kid reminds me so much of Rafael Furcal.  Game changing speed, a missle loaded arm, and developing power potential, Andrus as a teenager never ceased to impress the Rangers organization as a teen at AA.  For the ‘08 season, Andrus hit .295 with 4 HR 65 RBI 54 SB and 82 runs scored.  Unlike Furcal, Andrus also possesses leadership and makeup intangibles that are off the charts.  The one thing that still seems to be holding Elvis back is his so-so plate discipline (38 BB/91 K), though he has performed much better in the Venezuelan Winter League (25 BB/36 K).  Given the fact that Andrus was 2-4 years younger than the bulk of the competition at AA, it is reasonable to expect that he not only will shore up some of his selectivity issues, but will also hit with more power.  I really feel like the Texas Rangers are on the brink of being a special team very soon.  With the likes of Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, and Chris Davis in that lineup, it is reasonable to expect that a player like Andrus could have monsterous numbers at the top of that lineup. 

Your Daily Value #21

Posted by Jeremy on December 25, 2008 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

Merry Christmas to everyone!  I have a little break in the action to bring you a new daily value buy.  I hope that all of you have a wonderful Christmas day with family and friends as we commemorate the birth of our savior, Jesus Christ. 

2008 Donruss Threads DOMINIC BROWN Auto #/999

Current eBay Price—$5.00-8.00

• In a system that is stuffed with 5-tool, high-upside OF’s, Dominic Brown may be the best of all of them.  Tall, fast, and sinewy strong, Brown has an extremely polished bat despite his young age.  Brown paced the pitcher-friendly Hawaiian Winter League with a .389 BA and earned 15 BB/14 K in his stint.  There isn’t any part of Brown’s game that doesn’t project to be above average and, once his power develops, Brown should develop into an elite prospect.  At these current prices, Brown’s 1st year autos are something to accrue in bunches.  Want to spend a couple extra bucks?  His Donruss Elite Extra autos are nice buys in the $8.00-10.00 range.

Your Daily Value #20

Posted by Jeremy on December 24, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

2008 Donruss Elite Extra CALEB GINDL Auto #/245

Current eBay Price—$4.50-7.00

• Gindl built on his successful ’07 debut season with another fine statline at Low-A West Virginia hitting .307 with 13 HR 81 RBI 14 SB and 86 runs scored.  He followed up in the Hawaiian Winter League by hitting .281 with 3 HR and 18 RBI.  This kid reminds me a lot of Brian Giles as he has a strong stocky build and he plays the game with grit and fire.  He still needs to work quite a bit on his strike zone judgement (63 BB/144 K) but, at just 19 years old, there is plenty of time for that.  He is close to being maxed out physically, but I think that he will develop 20-25 HR power as evidenced by his 38 doubles hit last season.  The Milwaukee Brewers, under the guidance of Doug Melvin and Jack Zdurencik have been keen evaluators of projectible talent.  Gindl is one of the offensive gems in their system.  Want another fine Gindl auto?  His ‘08 Donruss Threads autos sell for $3.00-5.00 each.

Top 2008 Arizona Fall League Offensive Performances

Posted by Jeremy on November 22, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

The AFL wrapped up its regular season Thursday night with the Mesa Solar Sox and Phoenix Desert Dogs winning their respective divisions.  Mesa and Phoenix will square up for a championship game putting the finishing touches on a spectacular AFL season.  Much like I did with the Hawaiian Winter League wrap up, I have chosen 10 offensive performers who stood above the rest this season.

Top Offensive Performances

10.) Wes Hodges—Cleveland Indians 3B

.349/.368/.549  6 HR 26 RBI

• Hodges’ offense has been outstanding since the Indians selected him in the 2nd round of the ‘06 draft out of Georgia Tech.  Hodges has above average power and a smooth right handed swing that should hit for a good average at the MLB level.  Defensively, Hodges struggled at 3B all season making 28 errors and his struggles continued in the AFL.  Hodges will likely need to move to 1B where his 18-22 HR power becomes marginalized quite a bit.  Offensively, his game is quite similar to that of current Indians 1B/DH Ryan Garko.  Hodges has autographed 1st year cards in the 2007 Bowman Chrome that sell for $7-10 each.

9.) Scott Cousins—Florida Marlins OF

.297/.385/.624  6 HR 33 RBI 28 R

• Cousins started the AFL season slow, but really heated up in the second half of the season.  Cousins has considerable tools and athleticism.  Some who have watched him compares his left handed swing with that of Braves future HOF’er Chipper Jones.  Cousins main detractor has been his ability to stay healthy as he was limited to just 78 games this season at High-A Jupiter and AA Carolina.  Cousins is one of many talented OF in the Marlins’ organization which makes his future somewhat uncertain.  Cousins is a relatively unknown commodity right now, though, which makes his 2006 Bowman Chrome refractors ($2-3) and 2008 Bowman Chrome autographs ($3.50-5.00) low cost purchases right now.

8.) Jeff Larish—Detroit Tigers 1B

.331/.410/.548  6 HR 29 RBI 34 R (18 BB/25 K)

• Larish spent time between AAA Toledo and Detroit this season belting 23 HR and 80 RBI.  The Tigers used him at both 1B and 3B as well as DH as a left-hand hitting platoon player.  Jeff has above average power and he has shown the ability in the past to work counts and draw walks.  Larish will never hit for a high average at the big league level which will likely relegate him to the role of part time player.  At 26 years old, there is not much hope for Larish to develop into much more.

7.) Drew Sutton—Houston Astros 2B/SS/3B

.315/.426/.611  7 HR  24 RBI 32 R (24 BB/31 K)

• Sutton enjoyed his greatest season as a pro hitting .317 with 20 HR 69 RBI 20 SB and102 runs scored at AA Corpus Christi.  Additionally, Sutton has impeccable plate discipline, grinding out 100 BB between AA and the AFL this season.  Sutton can play any infield position, though he profiles best as a 2B.  Kaz Matsui is signed through the 2010 season, though Sutton should get his fair share of playing time as a super utility guy.  Sutton is the best middle infield prospect prospect in the truly horrible Houston farm system.  His bat is ready and it is high time that a major manufacturer produces his 1st year cards.

6.) Rhyne Hughes—Tampa Bay Rays 1B

.394/.432/.652  5 HR 27 RBI 12 doubles

• Hughes is an older prospect who has below average power as a 1B and subpar plate discipline.  That said, he had a fine AFL campaign and should play next season at AAA Durham.  His 2008 Bowman Chrome cards are readily available for 10-25 cent each, though his long term values should not rise much, if at all, above those totals.

5.) Mike McKenry—Colorado Rockies C

.369/.430/.652   9 HR 25 RBI

• McKenry finished second in the AFL in HR’s and his 18 HR at High-A Modesto shows that he profiles to be a power hitting catcher at the major league level.  McKenry is built like a brick at 5-9 210 lb. and he has solid plate discipline, though he strikes out often.  His average took a dip during the regular season in the hitter-friendly California League though his fine AFL showing gives me the notion that this may have been an aberration.  Defensively, McKenry needs improvement blocking balls, though his strong arm and solid athleticism gives reason to believe that he will improve.  McKenry is a couple seasons away but he is worth keeping an eye on.

4.) Jason Donald—Philadelphia Phillies SS/2B

.407/.476/.747  5 HR 17 RBI 23 R 12 doubles

• Donald’s track record of success seems to increase with each new challenge.  Donald had a successful AA season at Reading hitting .307 with 14 HR 57 RBI before heading to Beijing to lead Team USA to the Bronze Medal in the ‘08 Olympics.  Donald’s opportunity to play with the Phillies was thought to be limited as he had all-stars Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley ahead of him.  How things have changed.  Chase Utley is scheduled to have hip surgery which should keep him out until at least mid-June.  Donald will compete with veteran utility man Eric Bruntlett for a majority of the playing time.  Donald reminds me of Red Sox SS Jed Lowrie and his impact could be quite similar come April.

3.) Logan Morrison—Florida Marlins 1B

.404/.444/.667  5 HR  29 RBI  23 R

• Morrison has drawn rave reviews from anyone who has seen him play in person.  Morrison has a sweet left-handed swing that generates easy power to all fields.  There has been some conjecture that Morrison may get an opportunity to earn a roster spot with the Marlins now since the trade of Mike Jacobs.  He’ll get a long look in spring training, but should start the ‘09 season at AA Jacksonville.  Make no mistake, Morrison is Florida’s 1B of the future.  Currently, Morrison has 1st year autos in the 2008 Donruss Threads set and is preliminarily slated to have an auto in the upcoming Bowman Chrome Draft set.  If this comes to fruition, it will be one of the most highly demanded cards in the set.

2.) Tyler Flowers—Atlanta Braves C/1B

.387/.460/.973  12 HR  23 RBI  25 R

• That’s right, that .973 number up there is his SLG% and not his OPS%.  Flowers’ stock has increases significantly this fall.  Flowers is a massive 6-4 245 lb. power hitter with top notch plate discipline and decent athleticism.  The Braves moved Flowers behind the plate full time this season and he has worked hard to refine his receiving skills.  Flowers has a strong arm and decent athleticism that could play well at a corner infield position should he continue to struggle behind the plate.  Watch to see what the Braves organization decides to do with him at AA Mississippi this next season.  I would like to see him get some time at 3B as Chipper Jones’ eventual replacement.  The thought of having a corner infield of Flowers and Freddie Freeman within the next couple of years is enough to make any Braves fan salivate.  Flowers’ bat makes him a potential All-Star no matter where he plays and his big league debut should happen in early 2010.  Flowers has 1st year autographs in the 2008 Bowman Threads set and they are red hot right now selling for $30-35 on eBay.

1.) Eric Young Jr.—Colorado Rockies OF

.430/.504/.640  5 HR  20 RBI  20 SB  37 R  (12 BB/14 K)

• Young has vaulted himself to the top tier of Colorado’s prospect chart with his game changing speed and surprising boost in power.  Young overcame some early season injuries to bat .290 with 3 HR 36 RBI and 46 SB.  Young’s defense at 2B improved drastically from seasons past, though many believe that he will eventually be a good OF with plus-plus range.  Watch to see how the Rockies decide to use him in spring training as that should give bearing to where his future destination will be.  Young has more value as a 2B with top of the order speed and plate discipline.  Young’s cards in the various 2007 Bowman sets can all be had for under $1 each and seem like solid values.

Man, that was a difficult list to compile!  There were so many super efforts from intriguing prospects that were left off of the list.  Feel free to add your contributions and stay tuned for my Top 5 pitching performers from the AFL which should be posted by tomorrow morning.