8/22 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 23, 2008 under Market Watch, Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

I hope you all enjoyed my post about the ‘08 Bowman Chrome case break.  I apologize for slacking off with the minor league reports.  I am going to do my best to get 4 posts in today covering AAA-Full Season Low A.  Starting from the top…

Max Ramirez

• 2-4 2R 3 RBI 2B—Nice 1st game at Oklahoma

 

Kila Ka’aihue

• 2-4 HR(35) 2 RBI—Look for him to be wearing Royal blue in the next couple of weeks!

 

Chris Lubanski

• 2-3 HR(14) 3 RBI 3B—.233 14 HR 49 RBI (days as a top prospect are over)

 

Rob Johnson

• 2-5 2R 2 RBI—4th straight multi-hit game

 

Brandon Morrow

• 4.2 IP 2H 2ER BB 10K!—Quest for M’s rotation spot nearly complete

 

Micah Hoffpauir

• 4-6 2B 4 RBI R SB(2)—.371 23 HR 92 RBI 33 2B 58 R in 64 games

 

Delwyn Young

• 3-5 3R 2B—1st hits of the his injury-marred season

 

Blake Dewitt

• 2-6 2B 3B 2 RBI 2R—Departure of Andy LaRoche bodes well for Dewitt’s Dodger future

 

Xavier Paul

• 2-4 RBI R—Oft overlooked athletic OF (.424 2 HR 7 RBI last 10 games)

 

Chin-lung Hu

• 3-4 2B 2 RBI—.299 0 HR 12 RBI in 34 AAA games

 

Ben Copeland

• 3-4 2B 2R RBI BB—.367 22 H 12 R in 15 games with Fresno

 

Jordan Brown

• 2-4 3B 2 RBI R SB(3)—.282 5 HR 45 RBI

 

Phil Hughes

• 3.1 IP 10H 8ER BB 6K (L)—Back to back nausea-inducing outings with Scranton

 

Drew Stubbs

• 2-2 2R BB SB(32)—.316 2 HR 7 RbI 7R in 9 games with Louisville

 

Phil Humber

• 9 IP 5 ER 8K (W)—5-1 2.56 ERA 50K/53 IP last 10 games

 

Daniel McCutchen

• 7 IP 4H 2 ER 7K (W)—10-11 3.48 ERA 137K/160IP

 

Brent Lillibridge

• 3-4 3 RBI 2B R BB—Disappointing season (.215 4 HR 32 RBI 21 SB)

 

BUY/SELL Analysis

100 MPH heater will warm up Safeco soon

For once I will not be talking out of an orifice other than my mouth when evaluating a prospect, as I have  been privy to many first hand evaluations of former Seattle Mariners set up man Brandon Morrow.  Morrow was recently sent to AAA Tacoma to stretch out and become a starter.  This maneuver was initially supposed to be implemented after the conclusion of last season, allowing Morrow to compete for a rotation spot in spring training of this year.  A preseason trade for Erik Bedard caused the M’s to lose then set-up guy (now All-Star closer) George Sherrill, relegating Morrow back to the bullpen.

Morrow’s stuff is electric.  He regularly pumps in fastballs at 96-98 MPH and throws a tight 84-87 MPH slider that leaves many hitters swinging at air.  He compiled 10 saves as temporary closer while striking out 47 in just 37 innings.  His 1.72 ERA and 0.90 WHIP were vast improvements over last season as well.  Mariners fans lauded Morrow’s transition to the rotation, however, I think that it is a mistake of Joba-like proportions.  Morrow’s fastball will likely lose 3-4 MPH in velocity and, suffice it to say, his ball does not have much movement on it.  His slider is a fine complimentary pitch, but he mainly throws it early in the count and does not have much command of it to throw it late in counts (especially if he is behind a hitter).  Finally, he does not have a MLB calibur 3rd pitch, which is essential for starting pitchers to have.  Combine those factors with the fact that he has a history of being fragile (the M’s were often forced to limit his workload) and is a diabetic and you are left with a player that is a huge risk to become the latest briliant flash in the pan.  Morrow has 1st year cards peppered throughout several 2007 products with varying prices.  His best autographs can be found in the 2007 Fleer Ultra set selling on Ebay for $20-25, but many other products feature his autos at $7-10 each. 

Market Advice: After reading my post above, you surely must think that I am a Morrow-hater.  Quite contrarily, I am a big fan of Morrow…as a late inning reliever or even closer.  I would not advocate buying his cards with the intent of holding them for the long haul, but a short term BUY  of some of his lower priced autos may render some positive results in the short run as his card values will increase as he has success as a starter.  Plan to SELL in September as I think that is where Morrow’s card values will apex.  I am intrigued to see how Morrow’s upcoming 1st inning debut goes, but over the long term, I believe the M’s are making a huge mistake, but not as huge as passing over UW alum Tim Lincecum in the ‘06 Draft.

 

 

 

8/6 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 7, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Josh Whitesell

• 2-4 HR(22) 4 RBI—.543 3 HR 15 RBI 10 BB 10 R 19 H last 10 games

 

Brandon Wood

• 2-4 HR(27) 3 RBI 2B—.308 6 HR 14 RBI 12 R last 10 games

 

Brandon Morrow

• 1.2 IP H K—1st start for Morrow who is shifting to the M’s rotation in Sept.

 

Matt Tuiasosopo

• 2-4 2 HR(9) 3 RBI 3R BB—.375 3 HR 10 RBI 14 R last 10 games

 

J.R. Towles

• 2-4 HR(7) 2 RBI—.304 7 HR 22 RBI .951 OPS in 102 AB’s at AAA

 

Matt Antonelli

• 2-3 R—3 multi-hit games in last 4 outings has brought BA above .200

 

Brett Cecil

• 5 IP 6H 2ER 3BB 7K (W)—much better in his 2nd outing at Syracuse ( played 3 levels in ‘08 )

 

John Jaso

• 1-4 HR(9) 2 RBI—Hitting .345 2 HR 12 RBI in 14 games at Durham

 

Josh Anderson

• 3-4 HR(3) 2 RBI 2 2B 2R—back to back HR games for slap hitter (.422 7 SB last 10 games)

 

George Kottaras

• 3-6 2B R RBI—.237 20 HR 59 RBI 54 BB

 

Daniel McCutchen

• 7 IP 4H 2ER BB 5K (W)—9-11 3.29 ERA 121K/143IP

James McDonald

• 6 IP 2H ER 2BB 10K (W)—Superb 1st outing at AAA (6-3 3.10 ERA 123K/124IP)

BUY/SELL Analysis

What a difference a year makes for the Padres 2006 1st round pick Matt Antonelli.  Last season, Antonelli cruised through A and AA hitting .307 with 21 HR 78 RBI and 27 SB, garnering him the honor of being the San Diego’s #2 rated prospect.  This season Antonelli was expected to continue his success at AAA Portland with an outside shot of a late season MLB debut.  Conversely, he has hit an anemic .202 with just 4 HR 29 RBI and 5 SB.  What has contributed to the difference?  Antonelli’s 66BB/72K ratio is excellent and he has remained relatively injury free.  The only thing I can see is that Antonelli is a grinder and competitor who may be prone to putting too much pressure on himself, especially during struggles.  Antonelli has first year autographs in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft set which sells for $12-14 each and Bowman Sterling that sells for $9-12 each.

Market Advice: Which Antonelli is the real one?  Conventional wisdom would say that he is not as good as his ‘07 stats and not as bad as his ‘08 stats.  Given that notion, Antonelli is probably a .260-.275 hitter with 10-15 HR power and 10-15 SB speed.  Antonelli is a decent medium-risk medium-ceiling BUY if you can get his chrome auto at $10.  If you have some of his cards, HOLD and watch to see how he plays in the Arizona Fall League (I am assuming the Padres will send him there).

 

 

6/30 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on July 1, 2008 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

After taking a few days off from doing the reports, I think it would be appropriate to check in with our budding stars.  Here’s a look at a few AAA prospects.

 

Sean Rodriguez

• 2-5 HR(9) RBI 2R—Hitting better since his demotion (.276 9 HR 22 RBI .986 OPS)

 

Brandon Wood

• 1-4 HR(13) RBI—Streakiness and poor plate discipline tarnishes his shining potential

 

Freddy Sandoval

• 2-5 HR(9) 5 RBI—.306 9 HR 51 RBI (Undervalued switch-hitting 3B)

 

Wes Bankston

• 2-4 HR(14) 2 RBI 2B—.333 6 HR 15 RBI last 10 games

 

Mike Costanzo

• 2-4 2R—Played catcher last night (Hasn’t replicated last year’s numbers 27 HR 86 RBI)

 

Clay Buchholz

• 5 IP 4H BB 3K—1 ER in last 23 Innings (4-0 record)

 

Francisco Liriano

• 7 IP 4H BB 9K—Twins fans rejoice Lirano’s best outing of the season

 

Nelson Cruz

• 1-4 HR(25) RBI—.351 25 HR 70 RBI 18 SB (minor league player of the year???)

 

J.R. Towles

• 2-4 HR(5) RBI 2R—HR in 3 consecutive games

 

Jamie D’Antona

• 2-5 2RBI—.383 10 HR 49 RBI

 

BUY/SELL Analysis

Sean Rodriguez was ushered quickly to the L.A. Angels after a solid April at Salt Lake City where he hit 4 HR in 60 AB.  Predictibly, Rodriguez struggled, striking out 23 times in just 63 AB.  Since moving back to AAA, Rodriguez has hit .309 with 5 HR in 52 AB.  Rodriguez is a powerfully built 2B prospect who has the potential to hit 20 HR per season at the major league level.  Strikeouts have been a big problem for Rodriguez over his career (132 K’s at AA last year), but has cut this down significantly at AAA (20BB/20K in 32 games).  Rodriguez has 1st year cards in the 2003 Bowman and Chrome DP set and a jersey card in the Prospect Premieres set.  Currently, his chrome cards sell for about $1.00 each, which is only 20% of his Beckett value.  His Prospect Premieres jersey cards sell for $3-4 each but are difficult to find in online auctions.

 

Market Advice: Rodriguez’s chromes are a solid BUY at $1.00 each.  I would definitely like to see him continue his strong BB/K rate and perhaps a repeat trip to the Arizona Fall League with better results could provide the finishing touches on his development into a major league calibur player.  Find a bulk lot of his RC’s and snag them at a buck a piece.