PPR Mailbag—Michael Stanton vs. Angel Villalona

Posted by Jeremy on May 12, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

I got two great emails today from two of PPR’s more inquisitive viewers.  I love to get mail from you all with your thoughts and theories to this whole enigmatic and ever-changing process of baseball card prospecting.  This question comes from Justin who wrote in response to my most recent praise of Florida Marlins OF prospect Michael Stanton.  He writes:

Since you wrote up about Michael Stanton, it got me thinking. Who would you rather have and who do you think is the better buy, Michael Stanton or Angel Villalona. Although Villalona is in the hitter-friendly Cal League and Stanton is in the pitcher-friendly Florida St league, Villalona has a much better average (despite less power) and is slightly cheaper as well. Sure Stanton is the better overall player in my eyes, but Villalona is younger and could develop nicely.

I did a little bit of market research and found that this is an even better question than I originally thought because of the similarities that both of these players share.  Both Stanton and Villalona had an auto in one of the 2008 Bowman Chrome sets (Villalona in the regular chrome and Stanton in the draft picks).  Each player is currently playing High-A ball and profiles as the best power hitting prospect in their respective organizations.  Despite their similarities, there are some distinct differences to note as well.  Let’s examine each player more closely:

Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins OF

H/W:  6-5  225 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  11/8/89

2009 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
JUP	FSL	.281	30	114	14	32	6	2	7	23	63	14	29	2	1	.364	.553	.917
Minors		.281	30	114	14	32	6	2	7	23	63	14	29	2	1	.364	.553	.917

 

Strengths:

• Stanton has light tower power, as testified by his 39 HR barrage in what was his first full season last year.  Team officials lauded his work ethic this spring and his intense desire to be a student of the game. Beyond his strength, Stanton is said to be an excellent athlete with good speed and fluidity that he employs well in the outfield.  His arm strength should make him an ideal right fielder at the major league level. He has shown the ability to take walks and is showing some better selectivity at the plate.

Weaknesses:

• The high K rate is a major concern with all young prospects. Last year Stanton struck out 153 times in just 125 games. Additionally, he plays in a tough media market, Miami, that has historically has had a mitigable effect on the market exposure of many a talented player. Fan support in Florida has been tepid, though a new stadium in 2012 could help to change things.

 

Angel Villalona—San Francisco Giants 1B

H/W:  6-3  200 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  8/13/90

2009 Stats:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SJ	CAL	.330	29	115	20	38	5	0	4	18	55	5	22	0	1	.361	.478	.839
Minors		.330	29	115	20	38	5	0	4	18	55	5	22	0	1	.361	.478	.839

• Powerful frame and quick bat that projects to hit 35-40 HR per season.  He’s been reported to have a strong work ethic, despite being a bit shy and reserved.  In San Francisco, he plays for an organization that I believe has an extremely bright future and is on the cusp of being a perennial powerhouse in the NL West.  Contending teams draw more media and market attention, which is only beneficial to the bottom lines of the players that help contribute to that cause.

Weaknesses:

• His big body is soft and he looks much heavier than his listed weight.  He has less athleticism than Stanton and will be a liability on the basepaths as he ages.  Even more concerning his his truly terrible BB/K ratio.  This is not uncommon for international players his age as the game in places like the Dominican Republic focuses less on patience at the plate and more on aggressiveness.  Some young players are able to change their approaches, but even more continue to struggle with this.  Last year, Villalona’s first full season, he was able to garner a lowly 18 BB/118 K ratio and this year’s pace is not too much different.

 

 

In a Nutshell….

• Both players are extremely talented and should rocket thorugh their respective systems.  Each one has an obstacle-free path to the major leagues and are talented enough to force their ways into a major league lineup.  Stanton, to me, is the safer pick at this point despite Villalona’s better ‘09 offensive numbers.  His power is simply jaw dropping, evoking the venerable Peter Gammons to write an article lauding his brilliant potential.  The thing to watch with both Stanton and Villalona is, as it is with any player, is how each one addresses their weaknesses during their developmental road. 

Thank you Justin for your question and, as always, feel free to email me with all of your prospecting quips and queries!