Philadelphia Phillies/Texas Rangers Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 21, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis | Be the First to Comment

   

 

Last night’s transaction between the World Series-winning Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers marked an unusual occurrance in baseball trade market as each team exchanged one minor league player for another.  Former 2004 1st round pick OF Greg Golson heads to the Texas Rangers in exchange for 2005 1st rounder John Mayberry Jr.  Here’s a closer look at the parties involved in the deal.

Greg Golson:

• Golson had a solid season at AA Reading batting .282 with 13 HR 60 RBI and 23 SB.  Golson has top of the order speed and enough pop to be an solid top of the lineup offensive catalyst.  However, Golson racks up strikeouts at an alarming rate racking up 623 K’s in 511 career games.  The Rangers made the deal for Golson due to his Gold Glove caliber defense in CF.  This move will allow Josh Hamilton to move to his more natural position of RF, shifting David Murphy to LF.  Golson will not need to be a power hitter with the Rangers as their lineup possesses enough to light up all of the state of Texas.  Perhaps this will allow for him to focus more on working counts and improving his OB% which was just .333 last season.  Golson’s Rangers future is likely as a part-time defensive and baserunning specialist as the starting OF is chocked full of more intriguing hitters like Josh Hamilton, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz.  This doesn’t bode well for his 2004 rookie cards.

 

John Mayberry Jr.:

• The son of former New York Yankees OF John Mayberry has not fully lived up to the potential that his athletic 6-6 230 lb. frame projects.  Mayberry split time between AA Frisco and AAA Oklahoma City batting .264 with 20 HR 74 RBI and 10 SB.  On the surface, these numbers are decent, though in hitter friendly environments like Frisco and OKC and given Mayberry’s age and talent, they are quite mediocre.  Perhaps the move to the world champs will jump start Mayberry’s career similar to how it did for Jayson Werth.  Werth is an ideal comp for Mayberry as a long, strong, and athletic OF who has taken a while to refine his considerable skill set into consistent production.  Given Pat Burrell’s inevitable departure via free-agency, Mayberry may get that chance as early as April.  Watch to see how Mayberry produces in the Grapefruit League this spring.  If he is successful, he may break camp with the Phillies as a 4th outfielder.  The Phillies are rumored to be making a push to sign Seattle Mariners free-agent OF Raul Ibanez.  If they sign him, this will cut into Mayberry’s opportunities with the big club.  At 25 years old, Mayberry needs to take a major step forward this season to show that he can be ready for more regular AB’s in a big league uniform.  With much more projectible players like Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor ascending quickly, Mayberry’s greatest value to the Phillies may be as a mid-season trading chip.

 

This trade was interesting as each side trimmed some of their surplusses in exchange for other needs.  Both Golson and Mayberry should play in some capacity with their new teams this season, though it it likely that neither will earn a starting spot this season.  If you have any of their rookie cards, wait for a string of good performances (especially in spring training when hope and speculation abounds) and SELL accordingly.

 

Your thoughts and opinions are always welcome!

New York Yankees/Chicago White Sox Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 15, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

  

 

The Yankees made the first of what should be several high profile moves by trading three players for Chicago White Sox OF Nick Swisher.  In return, the Sox will receive RHP Jeff Marquez, 3B Wilson Betemit, and RHP Jhonny Nunez.  Here’s a bigger breakdown of the deal.

 

Nick Swisher:

A move to the Yankees can only help Swisher’s card values which have taken a plunge over the last couple of seasons as he has struggled to be a consistent offensive player.  That said, Swisher will provide power and good defense to the Yankees at 1B and the corner OF spots.  Swisher is the type of player that the Yankees love.  He is a grinder, a good clubhouse guy, an max effort defender, and he works counts well.  His average last season was a dismal .219, though the pinstriped uniform has a way of bringing out the best or worst in a player.  With Swisher’s makeup, one can expect that he will elevate his game significantly, and at the ripe age of 27, he is entering his prime.  Swisher has 1st year cards in the 2002 Bowman Chrome Draft set.  Prior to the trade, there was little to no action on his cards, now the market is flooding with them.  He has plenty of autographs on the market right now that are gaining increased interest.  Long term, Swisher’s numbers should increase and he should fit nicely in the #6 or #7 hole in the Yankees lineup.

Kanekoa Texeira:

 This Hawaiian-born reliever may be the most overlooked piece to this trade, but his numbers are nothing to scoff at.  The 22 year old Texeira pitched very well at two levels this year as a closer combining to go 6-3 with a 1.33 ERA and 21 saves at HIgh-A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham.  He has a nasty slider to compliment his lively mid-90’s fastball.  Hitters batted just .205 off of Texeira and he was able to induce more than two groundouts/flyout.  Texeira will likely be a late inning reliever as he progresses and he may be able to help the Yankees by the end of the ‘09 season.  Keep an eye on this young guy as someone has to eventually inherit the 9th inning throne from Mariano Rivera.

 

Wilson Betemit:

Betemit’s numbers with the Yankees were less than remarkable, and his market value after the trade will go from peanuts to peanut shells.  Betemit is a once bright prospect who gained weight and lost the athleticism that made him a one time top prospect in the Braves farm system.  Betemit will likely be a platoon guy at the corner infield spots and his market value will never be the same as it was when he was in the Yankees lineup.

 

 

 

 

 

 Jeff Marquez:

The ‘08 season was a struggle for Marquez, especially after such a promising 2007 which vaulted him to #7 on the Yankees prospect list.  Marquez has four pitches that grade out as average offerings and he effectively uses them with good control.  He had a good GO/FO ratio of 1.78 but he pitches to contact and often gets hit hard.  Marquez profiles to be an end of rotation starter or inning eating middle reliever at the MLB level.  He will likely pitch in Chicago this season in some capacity.  Marquez has several first year cards in 2004 sets, though they will not garner nearly the market attention that they would have had he been able to stay one of New York’s better prospects.  If you haven’t sold by now….you’re too late.

Jhonny Nunez:

Nunez is either very popular or very unpopular as this is the third time that he has been traded in less than one year.  Nunez has some good stuff that is still quite raw.  His fastball sits at 92-95 MPH and his slider has good movement to it.  Nunez began the ‘08 season at HIgh-A Potomac as a starting pitcher and he struggled going 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA.  Regardless, he was promoted to AA Harrisburg as a reliever and his numbers turned around significantly.  He continued the trend after his trade to the Yankees garnering a 1.65 ERA in 13 outings.  Nunez should provide value as a 7th or 8th inning guy, which does nothing for his card values, but the White Sox should be happy with his production.

Other Parties:

Jason Giambi: This move pretty much cements Giambi’s departure from the Yankees.  Will he shave the moustache?  Will the mullet come back?  Time will tell.  He is a valuable left-handed bat for anyone who wants to overpay for a DH.  The only thing that will keep his market value where it is now is if he goes to Boston, but the Red Sox have an overpaid DH of their own already.

Mark Tiexiera: Cross off the Yankees as a possible destination for this Boras client.  Tex’s cards would have skyrocketed if he signed with New York.  There are still many other organizations in the mix for the switch-hitting 1B, and it will be no surprise if L.A. offers him a huge deal to stay put.