Cliff Lee To The Phillies Trade & The eBay Market

Posted by Jeremy on August 3, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

This was an article submitted some time ago to the Cardboard Connection, but it didn’t make its way to publication.  As a result, I will post it up on PPR for your viewing pleasure.  Have some opinions on the trade deadline deals and their effects on the sports card market?  Let your opinions be known in the comments section!

As the banter between the Blue Jays and Phillies for coveted RHP Roy Halladay reached an impass, the Phillies utilized their backup plan and shipped highly regarded prospects Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp to the Cleveland Indians for 2008 Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.  Here’s a closer look at the primary pieces involved.

Cliff Lee:  The southpaw should provide the stability in the #2 rotation spot that struggling young ace Cole Hamels needs.  Lee has been one of the few bright spots for the A.L.’s worst team this year going 7-9 with a 3.14 ERA this season.  A move to the defending world champions should help breathe some life into the market for Lee’s various first year cards from 2002 as well as his autographed cards from subsequent seasons and sets.  Philadelphia is a solid collector’s market and Lee’s level of success should dictate the amount of heat that his cards generate on eBay and other sites.

Jason Donald: After a largely successful 2008 season which saw him lead Team USA to a bronze medal in Beijing and hit over .400 in the Arizona Fall League, it seemed that Donald was going to be the logical replacement for either Chase Utley or Pedro Feliz as each recovered from off season surgery.  Instead, it was Donald who struggled with injuries and missed most of June and July recovering from surgery on his torn meniscus.  In 51 games this season, the former Arizona Wildcat is hitting just .235 with one HR and 16 RBI at AAA Lehigh Valley.  Donald is a versatile infielder, able to play SS, 2B and 3B adaquately, though he best profiles at second or third defensively.  His bat should come around once his knee gets to full strength and he gets to full speed.  Donald has chart topping makeup and work ethic skills that makes him a natural leader on and off the field.  Cleveland is a rebuilding team with several holes to fill, but it seems that the one most suitable for next season will be in place of impending free agent Jamey Carroll as the team’s utility man.  Donald has enough offensive upside that he could be a 10-15 HR per season guy with good plate discipline and the ability to hit for a decent average.  From a market perspective, Donald’s card values, most notably his 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft and 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto, apexed during  last year’s AFL campaign and prior to spring training when there was much conjecture that he would be joining the Phillies as a starter.  Things have not worked out that way and the market for his stuff has waned but not disappeared.  His ‘06 Bowman Chrome Draft cards can be had from time to time in lots for 75 cents to $1.25 each and his ‘08 Sterling autos sell for $6-8 apiece.  If all goes well healthwise, it seems to be a sure bet that Donald will earn some playing time with the Indians at some point this summer.  Keep an eye on his bat to see if he can replicate some of his ‘08 magic.  If so, the market for his cards could see a nice short term boost.

Lou Marson: The acquisition of Marson is a prime indicator of a future departure of All-Star catcher Victor Martinez.  Marson has had a solid, but unspectacular season playing primarily at Lehigh Valley hitting .294 with one HR and 24 RBI in 63 games.  Marson is a solid defensive catcher with a strong arm and excellent leadership skills behind the plate.  Offensively, he has demonstrated the ability to hit for a high batting average with spectacular plate discipline, but his power numbers are below average.  Once V-Mart finds a new home, Kelly Shoppach should take over behind the plate with Marson backing him up.  Unfortunately for Marson, #1 Indians prospect Carlos Santana is not far behind and his 19 HR at AA is a prime indicator that his tenure with the club will begin very soon.  Similar to Donald’s cards, Marson’s 2004 first year cards, particularly in the Bowman Chrome Draft and SP Prospects sets, experienced their greatest values toward the end of 2008 when it was speculated by many that he would be the Phillies’ opening day catcher for 2009.  Currently his SP Prospects auto (#/550) sells for $15-18 and his Bowman Chrome Draft cards sell for less than a buck each.  He should be called up from AAA Columbus soon, perhaps immediately after the club trades Victor Martinez.

Carlos Carrasco: Baseball America tabbed the Venezuelan right-hander as the Phillies’ #1 prospect in 2008 but he has pitched like anything but in 2009.  After starting the season at 0-6, Carrasco has had much more fortune lately winning six out of his last nine decisions.  Carrasco, 21, has a tall and strong frame that oozes projectibility.  With a fastball that reaches 94 with good late life and a fading changeup he has the potential to be a solid #2 or 3 pitcher at the major league level.  Moving forward, Carrasco needs to be more consistent.  He has proven to be durable, averaging six innings per start this season, but he’s also had problems putting away hitters with regularity.  His move to the Indians will surely secure a rotation spot for him in the near future.  Carrasco has first year cards in the 2005 Bowman Chrome set that sell for $2-3 each and autographs in the 2008 Bowman Sterling set that can be had at $7-8 each.  While his ceiling remains high, Carrasco will need to prove that he’s ready to be a consistent MLB hurler in order for his cards to surpass their current prices.

Jason Knapp: The 19 year old hurler is perhaps the top prospect in this trade.  Knapp is big and burly (6-5 235 lb.) with a fastball that approaches 100 MPH. and a power slider that should be a devastating strikeout pitch in time.  Knapp’s 2-7 record and 4.01 ERA belies the  true dominance of his stuff as he’s compiled a 39 BB/111 K ratio over his first 85 innings this season and is limiting hitters to a .208 batting average.  Shoulder fatigue shut has shut Jason down for the past couple of weeks, but the Phillies organization have maintained that the move was a precautionary procedure and not injury related.  The challenge for Knapp moving forward will be his ability to sharpen the command of his two plus plus pitches.  He’s shown an aptitude for throwing a changeup and its development could determine whether Knapp is going to develop as a frontline starter or dominant closer.  Knapp has first year autos in several 2008 sets including Donruss Elite, Playoff Contenders, and Bowman Sterling.  They range from $8-12 each and his 2009 Bowman autos fetch $6-8 each. 

This deal was a true blockbuster that saw both the Phillies and Indians reap benefits.  For the Phils, they recevied yet another left handed pitcher for their rotation without having to part with Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor.  The acquisition of Lee levels the playing field between them and the Dodgers and should make for a thrilling NLCS showdown this year and sets them up for another pennant run in 2010.  Ben Francisco gives them an upgrade in their bench and probably spells the end of the line for John Mayberry Jr.  The Indians receive organizational depth that is, with the exception of Knapp, MLB ready.  For a rebuilding team looking to slash payroll, this was a solid, but not spectacular, haul.

Philadelphia Phillies/Texas Rangers Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 21, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis | Be the First to Comment

Last night’s transaction between the World Series-winning Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers marked an unusual occurrance in baseball trade market as each team exchanged one minor league player for another.  Former 2004 1st round pick OF Greg Golson heads to the Texas Rangers in exchange for 2005 1st rounder John Mayberry Jr.  Here’s a closer look at the parties involved in the deal.

Greg Golson:

• Golson had a solid season at AA Reading batting .282 with 13 HR 60 RBI and 23 SB.  Golson has top of the order speed and enough pop to be an solid top of the lineup offensive catalyst.  However, Golson racks up strikeouts at an alarming rate racking up 623 K’s in 511 career games.  The Rangers made the deal for Golson due to his Gold Glove caliber defense in CF.  This move will allow Josh Hamilton to move to his more natural position of RF, shifting David Murphy to LF.  Golson will not need to be a power hitter with the Rangers as their lineup possesses enough to light up all of the state of Texas.  Perhaps this will allow for him to focus more on working counts and improving his OB% which was just .333 last season.  Golson’s Rangers future is likely as a part-time defensive and baserunning specialist as the starting OF is chocked full of more intriguing hitters like Josh Hamilton, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz.  This doesn’t bode well for his 2004 rookie cards.

John Mayberry Jr.:

• The son of former New York Yankees OF John Mayberry has not fully lived up to the potential that his athletic 6-6 230 lb. frame projects.  Mayberry split time between AA Frisco and AAA Oklahoma City batting .264 with 20 HR 74 RBI and 10 SB.  On the surface, these numbers are decent, though in hitter friendly environments like Frisco and OKC and given Mayberry’s age and talent, they are quite mediocre.  Perhaps the move to the world champs will jump start Mayberry’s career similar to how it did for Jayson Werth.  Werth is an ideal comp for Mayberry as a long, strong, and athletic OF who has taken a while to refine his considerable skill set into consistent production.  Given Pat Burrell’s inevitable departure via free-agency, Mayberry may get that chance as early as April.  Watch to see how Mayberry produces in the Grapefruit League this spring.  If he is successful, he may break camp with the Phillies as a 4th outfielder.  The Phillies are rumored to be making a push to sign Seattle Mariners free-agent OF Raul Ibanez.  If they sign him, this will cut into Mayberry’s opportunities with the big club.  At 25 years old, Mayberry needs to take a major step forward this season to show that he can be ready for more regular AB’s in a big league uniform.  With much more projectible players like Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor ascending quickly, Mayberry’s greatest value to the Phillies may be as a mid-season trading chip.

This trade was interesting as each side trimmed some of their surplusses in exchange for other needs.  Both Golson and Mayberry should play in some capacity with their new teams this season, though it it likely that neither will earn a starting spot this season.  If you have any of their rookie cards, wait for a string of good performances (especially in spring training when hope and speculation abounds) and SELL accordingly.

Your thoughts and opinions are always welcome!

New York Yankees/Chicago White Sox Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 15, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

The Yankees made the first of what should be several high profile moves by trading three players for Chicago White Sox OF Nick Swisher.  In return, the Sox will receive RHP Jeff Marquez, 3B Wilson Betemit, and RHP Jhonny Nunez.  Here’s a bigger breakdown of the deal.

Nick Swisher:

A move to the Yankees can only help Swisher’s card values which have taken a plunge over the last couple of seasons as he has struggled to be a consistent offensive player.  That said, Swisher will provide power and good defense to the Yankees at 1B and the corner OF spots.  Swisher is the type of player that the Yankees love.  He is a grinder, a good clubhouse guy, an max effort defender, and he works counts well.  His average last season was a dismal .219, though the pinstriped uniform has a way of bringing out the best or worst in a player.  With Swisher’s makeup, one can expect that he will elevate his game significantly, and at the ripe age of 27, he is entering his prime.  Swisher has 1st year cards in the 2002 Bowman Chrome Draft set.  Prior to the trade, there was little to no action on his cards, now the market is flooding with them.  He has plenty of autographs on the market right now that are gaining increased interest.  Long term, Swisher’s numbers should increase and he should fit nicely in the #6 or #7 hole in the Yankees lineup.

Kanekoa Texeira:

 This Hawaiian-born reliever may be the most overlooked piece to this trade, but his numbers are nothing to scoff at.  The 22 year old Texeira pitched very well at two levels this year as a closer combining to go 6-3 with a 1.33 ERA and 21 saves at HIgh-A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham.  He has a nasty slider to compliment his lively mid-90’s fastball.  Hitters batted just .205 off of Texeira and he was able to induce more than two groundouts/flyout.  Texeira will likely be a late inning reliever as he progresses and he may be able to help the Yankees by the end of the ‘09 season.  Keep an eye on this young guy as someone has to eventually inherit the 9th inning throne from Mariano Rivera.

Wilson Betemit:

Betemit’s numbers with the Yankees were less than remarkable, and his market value after the trade will go from peanuts to peanut shells.  Betemit is a once bright prospect who gained weight and lost the athleticism that made him a one time top prospect in the Braves farm system.  Betemit will likely be a platoon guy at the corner infield spots and his market value will never be the same as it was when he was in the Yankees lineup.

 Jeff Marquez:

The ‘08 season was a struggle for Marquez, especially after such a promising 2007 which vaulted him to #7 on the Yankees prospect list.  Marquez has four pitches that grade out as average offerings and he effectively uses them with good control.  He had a good GO/FO ratio of 1.78 but he pitches to contact and often gets hit hard.  Marquez profiles to be an end of rotation starter or inning eating middle reliever at the MLB level.  He will likely pitch in Chicago this season in some capacity.  Marquez has several first year cards in 2004 sets, though they will not garner nearly the market attention that they would have had he been able to stay one of New York’s better prospects.  If you haven’t sold by now….you’re too late.

Jhonny Nunez:

Nunez is either very popular or very unpopular as this is the third time that he has been traded in less than one year.  Nunez has some good stuff that is still quite raw.  His fastball sits at 92-95 MPH and his slider has good movement to it.  Nunez began the ‘08 season at HIgh-A Potomac as a starting pitcher and he struggled going 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA.  Regardless, he was promoted to AA Harrisburg as a reliever and his numbers turned around significantly.  He continued the trend after his trade to the Yankees garnering a 1.65 ERA in 13 outings.  Nunez should provide value as a 7th or 8th inning guy, which does nothing for his card values, but the White Sox should be happy with his production.

Other Parties:

Jason Giambi: This move pretty much cements Giambi’s departure from the Yankees.  Will he shave the moustache?  Will the mullet come back?  Time will tell.  He is a valuable left-handed bat for anyone who wants to overpay for a DH.  The only thing that will keep his market value where it is now is if he goes to Boston, but the Red Sox have an overpaid DH of their own already.

Mark Tiexiera: Cross off the Yankees as a possible destination for this Boras client.  Tex’s cards would have skyrocketed if he signed with New York.  There are still many other organizations in the mix for the switch-hitting 1B, and it will be no surprise if L.A. offers him a huge deal to stay put.

Oakland A’s / Colorado Rockies Trade Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on November 12, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

The much anticipated trade of Colorado Rockies slugger Matt Holliday has ben consumated and the Oakland Athletics are the beneficiaries.  In return the Rockies will receive A’s closer Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith, and top prospect Carlos Gonzalez.  Here’s a closer look at the effects this trade will have on all parties involved.

Matt Holliday—OF

• Holliday stands to lose the most from this deal as he moves from the comfy confines of Coors Field to the cavernous McAfee Stadium.  Holliday, unlike many Colorado hitters was fairly consistent both at home and on the road and his .321 BA with 25 HR 88 RBI and 28 SB should fit nicely in the middle of Oakland’s lineup.  That said, the transition to the American League has historically been very difficult for National League hitters and it is reasonable to expect a slight drop in Holliday’s numbers, especially in batting average.  Holliday, however, may not even finish the season in Oakland as his contract expires next season and you can be sure that the A’s will parlay him into prospects or compensatory draft picks at some point.

Huston Street—RHP

• Street is widely expected to be dealt again this off season as the Rockies seem determined to go with Manny Corpas as their closer in ‘09.  Street’s stock has slipped due to injury issues and inconsistency.  Also, the fact that many other closers (K-Rod, Trevor Hoffman, Brian Fuentes, etc..)seem to be on the market should dampen the demand on Street somewhat.  However when healthy, Street is a shut down closer with great stuff and greater control.  The problem is that Street’s “when” has increasingly become an “if”.

Greg Smith—LHP

• Smith was very effective early in the season for the A’s, but as teams got to see him multiple times, his stuff became quite mediocre and he was hit hard.  Smith is not overpowering and his off speed control has to be good in order for him to be effective.  Going to a hitter’s ballpark does not bode well for his future numbers and I think that Smith’s best numbers are behind him.

Carlos Gonzalez—OF

• Somewhere, Carlos has to be doing backflips after hearing of this deal.  Gonzalez struggled after his call up with Oakland hitting just .243 in a very mediocre linuep.  Now he gets to go to Colorado and nestle in with the likes of Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Garrett Atkins, Ian Stewart, and Brad Hawpe.  Gonzalez should flourish there and is likely to take a giant step forward in his development.  If you don’t have his cards now, get them before they shoot up in value.

Other parties affected:

Josh Outman—LHP

• Smith’s departure should open up more opportunities for another Oakland southpaw to get some innings as a back of the rotation starter.  Outman’s stuff is much more lively than Smith’s though his mastery of it needs refinement.  This trade is evidence that Oakland GM Billy Beane is confident that both Outman and Gio Gonzalez should take big steps forward this season.

In the long run, this trade will work out well for both parties.  The A’s have gotten themselves a rental player who will give them much needed punch to the middle of their lineup.  Then, they will be able to parlay Holliday into new prospects and/or players that will add to the richness of their already talented farm system.  The Rockies have received a future star, some pitching depth, and a decent trade chip for a player that they knew that they would not be able to re-sign.  Was this the best possible deal that they could make?  Likely not, but it shouldn’t hurt them in the end.

C.C. Sabathia Trade Finally Completed

Posted by Jeremy on October 7, 2008 under MLB Trade Analysis, Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Batting lead-off for Cleveland in '09?

Three months after the trade that sent C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers, the Cleveland Indians received the final compensatory piece to the deal in AA outfielder Michael Brantley.  This details to this acquisition are nothing short of fascinating…at least to a geek like me.

As per the details of the contract, the Cleveland Indians were given the option of choosing between Brantley and High-A 3B Taylor Green.  The Indians were granted the deciding option because Milwaukee made it to the playoffs.  If Milwaukee would not have made the playoffs, the choice would have been theirs as to who would be sent to Cleveland.

I am wondering who Milwaukee would have opted to send.  Green is a very promising young 3B who hit .289 with 15 HR and 73 RBI in 419 AB.  His 61 BB/59 K ratio demonstrated highly advanced plate discipline from a 21 year old prospect.  Green’s season ended on August 12th when he was drilled on the hand by a pitch, but he is slated to play for the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League.

As for Brantley, he has great bloodlines as his dad Mickey was a former MLB OF (most notably with my Seattle Mariners) and has been an MLB hitting coach.  Brantley hasn’t produced the power potential that his dad has, though his 6-2 180 lb. frame could provide more strength and power as it matures.  Brantley, like Green, is extremely disciplined at the plate with a remarkable 50 BB/27 K ratio.  Brantley has great speed on the basepaths stealing 28 bags in 36 attempts.  His defensive prowess will probably limit him to LF, but with Grady Sizemore patrolling CF, this is acceptible. 

My thought is that the Indians want Brantley to be the leadoff hitter that will allow for Grady Sizemore to bounce down to the #3 spot in the order.  With Travis Hafner’s offensive demise and questions about Victor Martinez’s health, it will be imperative for Sizemore to shore up the middle part of Cleveland’s lineup.  This could mean that the Tribe will try to advance Brantley quickly, perhaps as soon as April.  The bat is ready, though it would be nice to see him provide more pop.