Thoughts on JIT Inventory

Posted by Jeremy on May 24, 2010 under Online Buying and Selling | 2 Comments to Read

JIT, or “just in time” inventory is a commonly practiced merchandising tactic employed by several businesses in the purchase, production, and selling of their products. For those of you who haven’t taken or, in my case, slept through Economics 101, here’s a brief refresher. In an effort to reduce the amount of physical inventory or supplies on hand, several companies will streamline the purchases of that inventory to coincide with the production and/or delivery of the items that they are selling. Done correctly, the process is a highly efficient and profitable way to conduct business.

The same approach can be used in this industry as well. Several large sports card vendors will pre-sell boxes of product before the manufacturer has even shipped them. Then when the product is received, they allocate the product to their customers without the product ever even touching their shelves. Often, the vendor will make a note in the auction stating when the product is anticipated to be released by the manufacturer as well as an approximate shipment date.

That’s all good and well for wax boxes, but what about the much more volatile singles market? Year in and year out the eBay market is flush with rapid rises and falls of card values as buyers are whipped into a frenzy over the latest and greatest young superstar. Often, we as prospectors do a good job of prognosticating who these players will be and, by keeping a finger on the pulse of the market, the buy and sell times can effectively monitored and profitably utilized.

Every once and a while, though, an unforeseen opportunity presents itself and it is at this time that one may consider a JIT game plan. This season has presented two of these to me so far and the results have been…well….mixed.

Case #1: The Brennan Boesch Buffet

Detroit Tigers OF phenom Brennan Boesch has gone from a market oversight to industry sensation almost overnight. Batting .345 with 4 HR and 19 RBI in his first 150 AB, the 6-4 230 lb. slugger has evoked comparisons to Al Kaline by bullish Tigers fans. Quickly his first year cards in the 2007 Bowman Chrome prospects and Bowman Heritage sets jumped from less than a quarter a piece into the $8-10 range. Autographs in the 2008 Bowman Chrome set also experienced exponential jumps from $4-6 to upwards of $30 in just a week’s time. Perusing a couple of other sports card vending sites, I was able to track down a total of 20 chromes , 6 base cards and 12 Heritage cards from an assortment of vendors for 25-50 cents each. I didn’t know just how long the Brennan Boesch love fest would last, so I placed the items in my store immediately after purchasing them from the other site. I didn’t want these to sit in my store too long so I set them at a 25% discount from the median price.

They didn’t last long.

Within hours, I had sold ten chromes, six base cards, and twelve Heritage without having one in my inventory. I received the cards three days later and shipped them directly to the buyers.

“Just In Time”. It’s a beautiful thing…..or is it?

Case #2: The Dallas Braden Affair

Major League Baseball has 19 perfect games in its history, making each occurrence a noteworthy and celebrated event. As Oakland A’s southpaw Dallas Braden etched his name into the record books, the eBay market sizzled with activity over his cards. Much like Boesch, Braden’s cards were seldom targeted as “must have” merchandise. 27 batters later and eBay was infested with a cornucopia of his 2007 first year products. Past experience has showed me that no-hitters, like magnesium strips, sparkle white-hot but flicker and fade quickly. With that in mind, I decided that I didn’t want to purchase a large quantity of his low cost product. Rather, I targeted items with a little more juice. I hit my favorite buy spots and found that I wasn’t the only person with this idea in mind. Braden products were being vacuumed up off of sites at mouse clicking speeds and, when it was all said and done, I was only able to accrue five 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft refractors at a rate of $1.50-2.00 each. Brief market research showed these cards to be selling in the $10-12.50 range. With thoughts of immediate liquidation in mind, I set my price at $8.00 per card.

Again, they were gone within hours. One buyer purchased the lot of five and paid immediately. Okay, so far so good. Two days later, I received an email stating that the two that I bought from this particular vendor were sold already on another site. A day after that, another seller stated that his copy had been sold in his shop. By this time, the prices of his refractors had fallen back down to the $3-4 range. I found one on eBay and won it at a price of $4.25 shipped. It still hasn’t arrived. I am in the process of issuing a refund to the buyer who has been extremely patient to this point. Given the inconvenience of this matter, I am inclined to ship him two of them and offer him a refund for four (instead of three). Hopefully, this will do enough to reconcile the situation without taking too big a hit on my sterling reputation.

Could this situation have been avoided? Not completely. What can be gleaned from this is that the quicker a turnaround you desire, the more risk you must assume in the deal. Opting for a JIT approach to selling reaps optimal profits, but be prepared to pay, literally, the consequences if and when things go awry.

JIT questions or experiences? Share them in the comments section below.

Tags: baseball cards, Bowman Chrome, bowman draft, brennan boesch, dallas braden, detroit tigers, ebay, JIT inventory, just in time inventory, minor league prospects, mlb, oakland a's, prospecting, rookie cards, sports cards

Top Arizona Fall League Pitching Performers

Posted by Jeremy on November 24, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

The AFL has historically been a very hitter-friendly league. This year proved to be no exception as four hitters batted over .400 and nearly half the league hit at least .300. That said, there were a few standout performers on the mound.

5.) Kevin Pucetas—San Francisco Giants RHP

4-1 4.33 ERA 1.13 WHIP 9 BB/28 K 35.1 IP

All Pucetas has done in his professional career is compile a 32-7 record with a 2.47 ERA and 69 BB/267 K’s over three levels. Pucetas is not overpowering, but he locates his pitches well and doesn’t walk many hitters. His thick 6-4 225 lb. frame should amply handle a heavy workload as an end of the rotation pitcher. Pucetas will pitch at AA Connecticuit next season as a 24 year old.

4.) Andrew Bailey—Oakland A’s RHP

1-0 1.29 ERA 1 SV 1 BB/16 K 14 IP

Bailey has taken well to his new role as a power reliever. After suffering through a difficult season at AA Midland, the A’s decided to let Bailey work in relief in Arizona where he showed good control and was able to overpower hitters with his 95 MPH fastball. His heater has good movement and late-sinking life. Bailey compliments the pitch with a powerful curveball that dives down in the zone with an effective two plane break. The A’s organization is overloaded with starting pitchers and the move to the bullpen should allow Bailey to bump up his fastball a couple of notches. Keep an eye on him at AAA this season as a possible late-inning call up as a compliment to closer Brad Ziegler.

3.) Max Scherzer—Arizona Diamondbacks RHP

1-0 3.38 ERA 0.88 WHIP 5 BB/24 K 24 IP

Scherzer’s four starts were enough for the Diamondbacks to see that he is ready to inherit a rotation spot in Arizona’s talented rotation. Scherzer can be downright overpowering at times with a mid-90’s fastball and promising slider. Scherzer exhibited much better contol from September to now and it will be key for him to maintain that trend to be successful in 2009. Scherzer will likely be a #4 or #5 guy initially with the potential to win 12-14 games next season.

2.) Phil Hughes—New York Yankees RHP

2-0 3.00 ERA 1.13 WHIP 13 BB/38 K 30 IP

The biggest positive to Hughes’ AFL campaign was that completed the season fully healthy. Hughes was ravaged with injuries this season and had trouble controlling the strike zone. Hughes has all the potential in the world to be a top tier starting pitcher at the major league level. The Yankees have been very protective of Hughes despite the barrage of requests from other teams of his services. Hughes should win a rotation spot unless the Yankees decide to purchase the entire free agent market of pitchers. He is the top SP prospect in the Yankees system and, given his spry age of 22, his future is still quite bright.

1.) Tommy Hanson— Atlanta Braves RHP

5-0 0.63 ERA 0.59 WHIP 7 BB/49 28.2 IP

How dominant was Hanson’s AFL season? So dominant that he allowed just a .105 BA against him. So dominant that, though he never pitched more than 5 innings in a game, he struck out 9 or more in four of seven starts. Hanson’s arsenal of pitches have transcended from being promising to being elite. His fastball has bumped up a few ticks to sit regularly at 93-95 MPH with great location and his curve has become a knee-buckling 12-6 breaking counter punch. Hanson has a distinct shot of earning a rotation spot out of spring training, though it will be likely that he spends a little bit of time at AAA Gwinnett to start the season. Regardless, Hanson, at just age 22, has become one of baseball’s top 5 pitching prospects.

Tags: afl 2008, andrew bailey, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, atlanta braves, baseball cards, Bowman Chrome, donruss, kevin pucetas, major league baseball, max scherzer, mlb, mlb prospects, new york yankees, oakland a's, phil hughes, pitching prospects, prospects, rookie autos, rookie cards, san francisco giants, tommy hanson, upper deck

11/17 AFL Report

Posted by Jeremy on November 18, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

I had a tough time picking a winner for today’s Player of the Day award. Tyler Flowers belted his league leading 12th HR and Juan Miranda hit 2 HR and 5 RBI in a losing effort against the powerhouse Mesa Solar Sox. Today’s player of the day, in my mind, has to go to Tommy Hanson who continues to be the most dominant player in this incredibly talented league. Hanson pitched 5 innings surrendering just 1 hit and two BB while punching out 10.

Player of the Day: TOMMY HANSON

What AFL hitters see just before striking out

Peoria Saguaros 4

Bill Rhinehart—2-4 2 RBI
Brett Wallace—1-3 2B R RBI BB
Leonard Davis—1-3 R 2B BB
Robert Parnell—4 IP H BB 3K

Phoenix Desert Dogs 3

Eric Young Jr.—2-4 HR(3) RBI 2R BB SB(19)
Sean Doolittle—1-3 R 2 BB
Mike McKenry—2-4 2B
Chris Nelson—1-2 2 BB

Mesa Solar Sox 13

Tommy Hanson—5 IP H 2 BB 10 K (W) (5-0 0.63 ERA)
Van Pope—3-3 HR(3) 4 RBI 2 BB
Tyler Flowers—3-4 HR(12) 3 RBI 3R BB
Scott Cousins—2-5 3B 4 RBI R
Logan Morrison—1-2 2R HR(1) 2 RBI
Nate Spears—2-4 2R HR(1) 2 RBI
Casper Wells—2-5 2B R SB(4)

Peoria Javelinas 6

Juan Miranda—2-4 2 HR(5) 5 RBI 2R
Drew Stubbs—1-4 HR(1) RBI
Lorenzo Cain—1-4 2B R BB

Surprise Rafters 4

Matt Wieters—2-5 2 RBI
Brandon Snyder—2-3 RBI
Joe Dickerson—2-4 2B RBI
Andrew Lambo—2-4 R
Nolan Reimold—1-4 2B R BB
James Tomlin—4 IP 3H ER 4K

Scottsdale Scorpions 3

Mark Trumbo—3-4 R
Drew Sutton—1-3 2B RBI BB
Kevin Frandsen—2-4 R
Ryne Lawson—4 IP 3H ER BB K

Tags: andrew lambo, Arizona Fall League Daily Report, autographed memorabilia, Bowman Chrome, bowman chrome draft, brandon snyder, brett wallace, chris nelson, drew stubbs, drew sutton matt wieters, ebay, eric young jr. sean doolittle, joe dickerson, juan miranda, leonard davis, logan morrison, lorenzo cain, mark trumbo, mike mckenry, Minor League Baseball, minor league prospects, mlb, nolan reimold, rookie cards, scott cousins, scouting reports, sportscards, tommy hanson, tyler flowers

10/14 & 10/15 HWL Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 16, 2008 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

The beautiful state of Hawaii has had some weather maladies over the last couple of days that have postponed a couple of games. I am combining results from the past two days into one post. I’ll start with the results from Tuesday’s game between the North Shore Honu and Waikiki Beach Boys.

North Shore Honu 14