$100 Growth Project Update–A Large Lot Purchase

Posted by Jeremy on October 14, 2009 under $100 Growth Project | 4 Comments to Read

Remember this undertaking?  For those of you who don’t or are new readers to the blog, I decided to take $100 of my hard earned dollars and invest them in various purchases and sales to see just how much I could net over one year’s time. 

At my last count, I had banked $158.46 and had a 2007 Bowman Chrome Chris Coghlan Blue Refractor Auto RC in my inventory.  The Coghlan auto, on the heels of his NL ROY performance has sold for $50 on a “BUY IT NOW” in my eBay store, netting me $43.42, or $13.42 profit. 

I was spot on with my analysis of Coghlan as a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia.  In fact, the Marlins’ rookie exceeded the ‘08 AL MVP’s numbers despite being in the minor leagues for the first month and a half of the season.  Given this, I think I undersold on the Coghlan card and would not be surprised to see this push past the $100 range following his christening as the 2009 NL ROY.  That said, my initial goal when purchasing this card was to sell at $50 and I did accomplish that.

That brings the total earnings to $201.88, or more than 100% profit over the initial investment.  Not bad considering my passive attention to the project. 

The Purchase…

Immediately following the sale, I won an auction for a mega sized 350 count lot of 2007 Bowman Draft Michael Taylor RC’s.  Shipped, the total cost for the lot was $95.55 or a mere 27 cents per card.  I immediately put the entire lot of them into my eBay store at the price of $1.00 each.  Given Taylor’s potential to earn a spot on the Phillies’ roster next season and long term prospects as a future star, I figure that the ‘07 RC’s will be spectacular low end buys this coming spring.  I received the lot yesterday, and to my pleasant surprise found that the seller had included an additional 15 Taylor RC’s upping the total to 365.

Current Cash On Hand: $106.33

Current Inventory: (365) 2007 Bowman Draft MICHAEL TAYLOR RC’s

Was this a good purchase?  Was it not?  Make your voice heard in the comments section below.  Stay tuned for more purchases and sales in the $100 Growth Project and for more quality prospect analysis!

Cliff Lee To The Phillies Trade & The eBay Market

Posted by Jeremy on August 3, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

This was an article submitted some time ago to the Cardboard Connection, but it didn’t make its way to publication.  As a result, I will post it up on PPR for your viewing pleasure.  Have some opinions on the trade deadline deals and their effects on the sports card market?  Let your opinions be known in the comments section!

As the banter between the Blue Jays and Phillies for coveted RHP Roy Halladay reached an impass, the Phillies utilized their backup plan and shipped highly regarded prospects Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp to the Cleveland Indians for 2008 Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.  Here’s a closer look at the primary pieces involved.

Cliff Lee:  The southpaw should provide the stability in the #2 rotation spot that struggling young ace Cole Hamels needs.  Lee has been one of the few bright spots for the A.L.’s worst team this year going 7-9 with a 3.14 ERA this season.  A move to the defending world champions should help breathe some life into the market for Lee’s various first year cards from 2002 as well as his autographed cards from subsequent seasons and sets.  Philadelphia is a solid collector’s market and Lee’s level of success should dictate the amount of heat that his cards generate on eBay and other sites.

Jason Donald: After a largely successful 2008 season which saw him lead Team USA to a bronze medal in Beijing and hit over .400 in the Arizona Fall League, it seemed that Donald was going to be the logical replacement for either Chase Utley or Pedro Feliz as each recovered from off season surgery.  Instead, it was Donald who struggled with injuries and missed most of June and July recovering from surgery on his torn meniscus.  In 51 games this season, the former Arizona Wildcat is hitting just .235 with one HR and 16 RBI at AAA Lehigh Valley.  Donald is a versatile infielder, able to play SS, 2B and 3B adaquately, though he best profiles at second or third defensively.  His bat should come around once his knee gets to full strength and he gets to full speed.  Donald has chart topping makeup and work ethic skills that makes him a natural leader on and off the field.  Cleveland is a rebuilding team with several holes to fill, but it seems that the one most suitable for next season will be in place of impending free agent Jamey Carroll as the team’s utility man.  Donald has enough offensive upside that he could be a 10-15 HR per season guy with good plate discipline and the ability to hit for a decent average.  From a market perspective, Donald’s card values, most notably his 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft and 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto, apexed during  last year’s AFL campaign and prior to spring training when there was much conjecture that he would be joining the Phillies as a starter.  Things have not worked out that way and the market for his stuff has waned but not disappeared.  His ‘06 Bowman Chrome Draft cards can be had from time to time in lots for 75 cents to $1.25 each and his ‘08 Sterling autos sell for $6-8 apiece.  If all goes well healthwise, it seems to be a sure bet that Donald will earn some playing time with the Indians at some point this summer.  Keep an eye on his bat to see if he can replicate some of his ‘08 magic.  If so, the market for his cards could see a nice short term boost.

Lou Marson: The acquisition of Marson is a prime indicator of a future departure of All-Star catcher Victor Martinez.  Marson has had a solid, but unspectacular season playing primarily at Lehigh Valley hitting .294 with one HR and 24 RBI in 63 games.  Marson is a solid defensive catcher with a strong arm and excellent leadership skills behind the plate.  Offensively, he has demonstrated the ability to hit for a high batting average with spectacular plate discipline, but his power numbers are below average.  Once V-Mart finds a new home, Kelly Shoppach should take over behind the plate with Marson backing him up.  Unfortunately for Marson, #1 Indians prospect Carlos Santana is not far behind and his 19 HR at AA is a prime indicator that his tenure with the club will begin very soon.  Similar to Donald’s cards, Marson’s 2004 first year cards, particularly in the Bowman Chrome Draft and SP Prospects sets, experienced their greatest values toward the end of 2008 when it was speculated by many that he would be the Phillies’ opening day catcher for 2009.  Currently his SP Prospects auto (#/550) sells for $15-18 and his Bowman Chrome Draft cards sell for less than a buck each.  He should be called up from AAA Columbus soon, perhaps immediately after the club trades Victor Martinez.

Carlos Carrasco: Baseball America tabbed the Venezuelan right-hander as the Phillies’ #1 prospect in 2008 but he has pitched like anything but in 2009.  After starting the season at 0-6, Carrasco has had much more fortune lately winning six out of his last nine decisions.  Carrasco, 21, has a tall and strong frame that oozes projectibility.  With a fastball that reaches 94 with good late life and a fading changeup he has the potential to be a solid #2 or 3 pitcher at the major league level.  Moving forward, Carrasco needs to be more consistent.  He has proven to be durable, averaging six innings per start this season, but he’s also had problems putting away hitters with regularity.  His move to the Indians will surely secure a rotation spot for him in the near future.  Carrasco has first year cards in the 2005 Bowman Chrome set that sell for $2-3 each and autographs in the 2008 Bowman Sterling set that can be had at $7-8 each.  While his ceiling remains high, Carrasco will need to prove that he’s ready to be a consistent MLB hurler in order for his cards to surpass their current prices.

Jason Knapp: The 19 year old hurler is perhaps the top prospect in this trade.  Knapp is big and burly (6-5 235 lb.) with a fastball that approaches 100 MPH. and a power slider that should be a devastating strikeout pitch in time.  Knapp’s 2-7 record and 4.01 ERA belies the  true dominance of his stuff as he’s compiled a 39 BB/111 K ratio over his first 85 innings this season and is limiting hitters to a .208 batting average.  Shoulder fatigue shut has shut Jason down for the past couple of weeks, but the Phillies organization have maintained that the move was a precautionary procedure and not injury related.  The challenge for Knapp moving forward will be his ability to sharpen the command of his two plus plus pitches.  He’s shown an aptitude for throwing a changeup and its development could determine whether Knapp is going to develop as a frontline starter or dominant closer.  Knapp has first year autos in several 2008 sets including Donruss Elite, Playoff Contenders, and Bowman Sterling.  They range from $8-12 each and his 2009 Bowman autos fetch $6-8 each. 

This deal was a true blockbuster that saw both the Phillies and Indians reap benefits.  For the Phils, they recevied yet another left handed pitcher for their rotation without having to part with Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor.  The acquisition of Lee levels the playing field between them and the Dodgers and should make for a thrilling NLCS showdown this year and sets them up for another pennant run in 2010.  Ben Francisco gives them an upgrade in their bench and probably spells the end of the line for John Mayberry Jr.  The Indians receive organizational depth that is, with the exception of Knapp, MLB ready.  For a rebuilding team looking to slash payroll, this was a solid, but not spectacular, haul.

Pirates/M’s and Cliff Lee Trade Analyses

Posted by Jeremy on under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

The Cardboard Connection has posted my article I wrote in the wake of the Matt Holliday deal.  While the trade is now old news, here’s the link to the article for your viewing pleasure.

I also stayed up late last night tapping out similar articles for the Pirates/M’s trade and the Cliff Lee to Philly deal.  I think the Pirates added some significant depth to their system as did the Indians.  The M’s filled a couple of holes in their roster, but not spectacularly so.  The Phillies may have purchased a couple more trips to the World Series while keeping their trifecta of elite prospects (Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, and Michael Taylor). 

I will link to the Pirates/M’s trade article and Cliff Lee to Philly articles once they are posted on the Cardboard Connection.  If you haven’t checked out that site yet, do so today.  It is rapidly becoming one of the best sports card info sites on the web.

6/28 AA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on June 29, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Oakland A’s 1B of the future Chris Carter continues to pound the baseball, going 2-3 yesterday with his 13th HR six runs batted in and two runs scored.  I predicted at the beginning of June that Carter was due to go off on a power rampage and, suffice to say it, he has.  Over his last 100 AB, Carter is hitting .313 with 7 HR 19 RBI and a 19 BB/24 K ratio.  His improvements in his approach at the plate has resulted in a 40 point rise in batting average.  Also, Sean Doolittle’s injuries and potential move to the OF has opened the door wide for Carter to be the premier 1B prospect in Oakland’s farm system.  Jason Giambi is a one season hold over and Daric Barton offers a paper-thin resistance to Carter’s comprehensive skill set.  The A’s are desperate for offensive fire power and the 6-4 225 lb. Carter offers it in abundance.  He should make a move to AAA Sacramento at some point this summer and if Oakland continues to play last place baseball in the AL West, he should get a look at some point in September.  I expect that Chris Carter will get to continue his development at the Arizona Fall League this winter before getting a long look by the A’s this following spring. 

Today’s player de jour is the always impressive Michael Taylor of the Philadelphia Phillies organization.  The Stanford alum collected three more hits yesterday, including his 14th HR, four RBI and two runs scored.  Taylor’s banner day raised his season batting average to .342 .  He’s bound to earn a promotion soon either to AAA or, perhaps, to Philly.  The eBay market for Taylor’s cards has been red hot as of late with his ‘07 Bowman Chrome Draft cards selling at $2.00-2.50 each and his ‘08 Donruss Elite autos (#/720) ranging between $20-25 each.  There is quite a bit of room for all of Taylor’s cards to grow.  His blend of power, speed, plate discipline and batting average and his athletic 6-6 250 lb. frame spells S-U-C-C-E-S-S at the major league level.

AA Player of the Day—MICHAEL TAYLOR

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Chris Carter—2-3 HR(13) 6 RBI 2B 2R BB
• Adrian Cardenas—3-4 3R 2 BB SB(6)
• Matt Sulentic—3-6 2R 3 SB(16)
• Josh Donaldson—1-2 R 3 BB
• Matt Spencer—2-5 HR(13) 2 RBI
• Eric Sogard—2-5 2R
• Logan Forsythe—2-4 3B RBI R BB
• Tim Smith—3-4 2B 2 RBI BB R
• Mitch Moreland—2-5 2B RBI R
• Michael Taylor—3-4 HR(14) 4 RBI 2B 2R
• Jesus Montero—2-4 HR(9) RBI
• Jose Tabata—1-3 2B 2R RBI BB SB(5)
• Jim Negrych—2-4 2 RBI R SB(4)
• John Shelby Jr.—2-3 2B 3B 2 RBI 2 BB R SB(10)
• Dayan Viciedo—2-3 2 2B 2R BB
• Todd Frazier—1-4 HR(7) 2 RBI
• Sean Henry—2-4 HR(9) 2 RBI
• Andrew Lambo—3-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Eric Campbell—2-3 3B 2 RBI
• Desmond Jennings—2-4 2R RBI BB SB(28)
• Bryan Petersen—3-5 HR(2) 2 RBI
• Darin Holcomb—2-3 2B R BB
• Tyler Henry—3-4 HR(6) RBI 2R
• Hank Conger—2-5 HR(5) 2 RBI
• Mark Trumbo—2-4 2B RBI
• Danny Worth—2-4 2B 2R BB
• Casper Wells—2-5 2B 3B
• Michael Daniel—2-5 R (Game 1)…..3-5 R (Game 2)
• Leonard Davis—2-5 HR(11) 3 RBI BB
• Rene Tosoni—3-4 2B R BB

Pitching:

• Michael Stutes—7 IP 5H 2 ER BB 3K W (5-4)
• Charles Shirek—7 IP 8H ER BB 2K W (10-2)
• Kyle Parker—7 IP 4H Er 2 BB 4K
• Ryne Reynoso—7.2 IP 6H Er 2 BB 6K W (5-4)
• Travis Wood—7 IP 5H 2 ER BB 4K
• Kasey Kiker—6 IP 4H 6K

Top 20 Outfield Prospects 2009 (Part 2)

Posted by Jeremy on March 11, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

I apologize for the long delay in getting to part two of the Top 20 OF Prospects list.  If you need a reveiw of the Top 10 on the list you can read it on this, click this link.  Picking up at #11 is a prospect that, prior to the beginning of last season, would have been easily in the top 5.  Jordan Schafer’s  50 game suspension for using HGH and a slow rebound bumps him down the list a little bit, but the 5-tool talent is still there and the opportunity to be a significant contributor to the Braves 2009 ballclub is a distinct reality.

11.) Jordan Schafer—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Schafer is a true 5-tool prospect.  He has a fluid LH swing that eventually should generate 20-25 HR at the major league level.  His above average speed is used well on the bases and in the OF where his glove and arm make him a viable Gold Glove candidate.  He makes good contact and has shown the ability to draw walks

Weaknesses: The suspension was a big black mark on his development.  He failed to post the same numbers in his return that he demonstrated in 2007, leading to further skepticism regarding the authenticity of his breakout season. 

2009 Outlook: Schafer has handled things well since his return and should get a long look by the Braves this spring.  He is an integral part to the future of the organization and still possesses a skill set quite similar to that of St. Louis Cardinals prospect Colby Rasmus and Cleveland Indians All-Star OF Grady Sizemore.  Expect Schafer to get more seasoning in AAA at the start of the ‘09 season before earning a call up in the early summer months.

12.) Dominic Brown—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Off the charts athletic ability and tools galore.  Brown has a build similar to Darryl Strawberry but exudes plate discipline and an ability to hit for a high batting average that is rarely seen in young hitters.  Brown has speed that fits well at the top of a lineup and he uses it well on the basepaths.  His long frame should build more strength, and with it, increased HR power. Though he has the ability to play CF, he will likely shift to RF as a pro due to his size and cannon arm.

Weaknesses: Not many.  Right now, the power is merely projectible at this point.  He often elects to employ a more conservative approach at the plate, driving the occasional pitch.  His game is quite similar at this point to Rockies prospect Dexter Fowler, making his future HR totals difficult to project.  If he does focus more on power, it is conceivable that he will run less and hopes of 20+ SB seasons could diminish.

2009 Outlook: Brown will continue to progress at High-A Clearwater, but now he is assuredly on the Phillies’ fast track.  Don’t be surprised to see him move to AA at some point this season to play alongside the statuesque Michael Taylor.  Brown’s future within the organization is extremely bright and he could find himself in the Top 5 of this list by the start of next season.

13.) Greg Halman—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: At 6-4 195 lb., Halman is a freakishly good athlete.  He possesses wiry strength and top-flight speed that should translate into being a 30 HR 30 SB threat at the major league level.  He has proven to be resiliant, battling against profound struggles in the early part of his professional career to have success at higher levels.  Defensively, Halman has the range to play CF, but the size, arm, and power potential to be a bonafide star in RF.

Weaknesses: Plate discipline is still a long way from being MLB-ready.  Halman struggles with working counts and recognizing off speed pitches.  This leads him to be slump prone at times and exploitable by more advanced pitchers.

2009 Outlook: Halman handled the challenges of two promotions last year with excellent results and has earned a starting nod as the Tacoma Rainiers’ opening day RF.  Expect him to stay for most the season at this level before earning a late summer call up (possibly post-Sept 1).  The Seattle Mariners are an organization undergoing a major transformation and Halman figures prominently in their future plans.

14.) Julio Borbon—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Superb top of the order bat that hits for a high average and good plate discipline.  Borbon uses his speed as a lethal weapon on the basepaths where he stole 53 bags last year.  Borbon has demonstrated a pleasing uptick in his XBH power last season and has the strength to hit 10-15 HR per year in the major leagues.  Defensively, the fleet footed Borbon is the best OF in Texas’ rich farm system.

Weaknesses: Borbon will never be a middle of the lineup producer.  He also needs to work on increasing his walk totals in order to optimize his potential as a leadoff hitter. 

2009 Outlook: He’ll start at AAA Oklahoma City with a chance of earning a late season callup by the Rangers.  Texas is flush with some solid OF’s right now including Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Marlon Byrd and Brandon Boggs.  Borbon offers something that none of them have–elite speed.  He is the leadoff hitter of the future for the Rangers and that future should begin in 2010.

15.) Aaron Hicks—Minnesota Twins

 2008 Stats:

Strengths: Tools across the board.  Hicks demonstrated excellent power, speed, plate discipline, and defense in his professional debut.  His athleticism is extremely advanced and projects to improve as he matures.  He has been clocked in the mid-90’s off of the mound, which speaks very well of his arm strength.

Weaknesses: At this time, the only downside is his limited professional exposure.  Hicks will need to prove that he can duplicate his performances in more advanced settings.

2009 Outlook: Hicks has assuredly earned a promotion to full season baseball and he should continue to perform quite well there.  With Ben Revere in the fold in CF, Hicks’ arm strength would be an asset in RF.  He will need to continue to develop his power numbers in order to keep up with the influx of 20+ HR hitters that man that position.  He projects to do so, but at this point, it’s merely a projection.  If he does boost his power numbers, Hicks could grace the top of this list in the near future.

16.) Austin Jackson—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Above average athleticism and emerging raw power.  Jackson has quick hands and is slowly improving his feel for the strike zone.  Defensively, Jackson has enough range and more than enough arm strength to be a solid CF. 

Weaknesses: He is still overly aggressive at the plate, striking out way too much and working himself into pitching-adventageous counts.  He has a body frame that could build some bulk and lose speed as he ages making him more of a slugger than a runner.

2009 Outlook: A-Jack should start at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre and will make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09.  Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera should occupy a majority of the time in CF, but neither is a sure bet to hold the position for a long period of time.  Any lapse by either one of them could expediently usher in the beginning of the Austin Jackson era in the Bronx.

17.) Ben Revere—Minnesota Twins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Revere makes excellent contact with just about anything he hits, evoking comparisons to other batting champions Ichiro Suzuki and Tony Gwynn.  LIke those two, Revere has more power than he demonstrates and he should build upon his 2008 totals of 28 XBH make 5-10 clear the fences every year.  He is a smart player with excellent speed and plate discipline that should make him an elite top of the order hitter.  Defensively, Revere covers vast territory in CF and has good instincts.

Weaknesses: The lack of pop places him down on this list.  Though he doesn’t strike out much, Revere also doesn’t walk as much as a leadoff hitter should.  His arm strength has been a concern as well and may force him to move to LF in the future.

2009 Outlook: Flirting with .400 in his first full season of baseball should place Revere on the organization’s fast track.  He will start at High-A Fort Myers with a real shot of earning a promotion to AA New Britain at some point.  The Twins have a ton of speedy young talent sprinkled throughout their farm system, but Revere should earn a full time spot in the Metrodome within the next 2-3 seasons.

18.) Andrew Lambo—L.A. Dodgers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lambo has 25-30 HR per year power potential and his sweet left-handed swing has evoked comparisons to fellow Dodgers 1B James Loney.  Lambo hits well with runners on base, racking up big RBI totals and XBH numbers.  He has a very strong arm and enough athleticism to play a corner OF spot or 1B at the major league level. 

Weaknesses: He is a below average runner and tends to get overly aggressive at times at the plate, elevating his strikeout totals.  He has also had a history of off the field issues, but seems to have put some of those indiscretions behind him.

2009 Outlook: Lambo will begin at AA Chattanooga and should play there most of the year.  If he has a great deal of success, he may earn a call up in September for a few late season AB’s.  Expect his role with L.A. to increase significantly in 2010.

19.) Jose Tabata—Pittsburgh Pirates 

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Tabata has quick hands that create excellent bat speed and contact.  He has put on some considerable bulk over the past season (up to 215 lbs. now) which may indicate that he should become more of a slugger than a speedster.  His arm is strong enough to play RF and he has adaquate range for that position.

Weaknesses: Tabata is still working on his strike zone judgement.  He makes good contact, but doesn’t work counts enough for walk totals.  As he builds his power numbers, it will be more important for him to recognize when pitchers are throwing around him.  He has had some injury woes over the past couple of seasons, and given his weight gain, this can become an increasing nuisance.  Also, attitude issues plagued him as a Yankee prospect, but he has seemingly had an awakening since his trade to Pittsburgh and has thrived on the field.

2009 Outlook: The Pirates are trying to figure out what they have aside from Nate McLouth in the OF.  Andrew McCutchen is sure to take over the CF duties in the near future, but things may open up for Tabata if he can replicate his post-Yankees performance in ‘09.  At just 20 years old, there is plenty of time for the young OF to develop into an excellent offensive player.

20.) Daryl Jones—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Jones’ rich assortment of tools matured into tangible skills last season.  He has excellent speed that he uses effectively on the basepaths and in the outfield.  His power numbers increased significantly, leading some to believe that he can be a 20 HR/20 SB player at the major league level.  He makes good contact at the plate and made some progress with his discipline at the plate.

Weaknesses: Jones still strikes out a little more than the Cardinals would like to see.  His jump from dismal ‘07 numbers to All-Star worthy ‘08 numbers, though done at two advanced levels, will need to be replicated again to confirm his status as a rapidly rising prospect.  With Colby Rasmus likley manning the CF position, Jones will need to demonstrate more power in order to hold down a corner OF spot.

2009 Outlook: He could find himslef in AAA Memphis for the beginning of the season as Rasmus’ replacement.  Watch the power numbers and the OBP numbers.  If he can continue his progress from last season, he may find himself wearing a Cardinals jersey in September.

At long last, there are the top 20 outfield prospects for 2009.  There are so many other good ones left to list and, of course, this list should look entirely different next year.  For your viewing pleasure, I will give you the next 10 OF prospects as I see them at this stage of the game.  Mind you, this was a difficult list to compile and I would love to see how your list would shake out…

21.) Michael Burgess—Big time power potential, but the K’s need to be cut back

22.) Nolan Reimold—Polished hitter and ready for the show.  At 25 however, he needs to make an impact soon

23.) Engel Beltre—Plate discipline is the only thing that keeps him away from the top 10

24.) Jaff Decker—Incredible debut and even more incredible bat…keep an eye on this one

25.) Gerardo Parra—Excellent top of the lineup skills and emerging power

26.) Desmond Jennings—Injuries keep this mega talent from cracking the top 20

27.) John Raynor—Super speedy and enough power to be a dangerous leadoff hitter.  Needs to cut the K’s.

28.) Josh Reddick—Power and a big time RF arm.  Needs to succeed at AA this season.

29.) Lorenzo Cain—AFL performance has opened some eyes.  Superb athlete that could rise quickly.

30.) Wendell Fairley—Showed plate discipline and power potential in debut.  Seems to have put attitude issues behind him.

That is indeed quite the list!  Next on the docket is the top 20 RHP prospects….stay tuned for this list, it will be a doozy!

Top 20 Outfield Prospects for 2009 (Part 1)

Posted by Jeremy on February 24, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Are you ready for a banger of a list?  I originally made a list of about 50 OF that could potentially find their way onto this list and had a dickens of a time narrowing it down to the top 20.  This link will contain the top 10 and a following link will have 11-20. 

If you are on your best behavior….I will add a gratuitous third list covering ranks 21-30.

I was oscillating between three strong candidates for the top honors on the list.  I chose to go with youthful upside over polish and experience.  Jason Heyward exceeded the lofty expectations heaped upon him by the baseball prospecting world by decimating pitching in his first dose of full season ball.  As good as his season was, he has yet to even chisel through the surface of his mountainous potential. 

1.) Jason Heyward—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Where to begin with this youngster?  Heyward has off the charts power potential, plus speed, a cannon for an arm, and has shown an ability to hit for a high average with excellent plate discipline.  Heyward is an intelligent ballplayer who carries his lunchpail to work day in and day out.

Weaknesses: Just experience at this point.  Chances are that he will lose some of his speed as he ages and will become more of a slugger.  He did struggle in his brief time at High-A Myrtle Beach, but there is no reason to believe that this will be a prolonged problem for the 19 year old southpaw.

2009 Outlook: Heyward gets a  taste of the Braves’ big league camp this spring but his early regular season months will be spent back at Myrtle Beach.  There’s a big possibility that he will earn a promotion to AA Mississippi at some point.  Heyward is a fast track player and one of baseball’s most intriguing prospects.

2.) Travis Snider—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Jaw dropping power potential.  Snider has a thick muscular build that generates incredible torque from a left handed swing that produces tape measure moon shots.  He is a gritty player who works hard in all aspects of his game.  He is more athletic than he looks and profiles as an pretty good RF with a rocket arm.

Weaknesses: The price for great power is a prolific number of strikeouts.  Snider’s high K rates lends him to be streaky at times at the plate.  He is just 20 years old, but has already maxed out physically.  He should lose some of his average speed as he ages and could be a risk for injuries.

2009 Outlook: Snider looks to have a starting OF spot locked up before spring starts.  He is a prime candidate for the ‘09 A.L. Rookie of the Year award, but he could be afflicted by a post debut slump just as well.  Long term, there is plenty to be excited about in this youngster.

3.) Cameron Maybin—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Maybin has a wide assortment of tools emanating from a highly athletic and strong 6-4 205 lb. frame.  Cameron possesses track star speed and sinewy strength that should make him a perennial 20 HR/20 SB player and, possibly, a 30 HR/30 SB threat in future seasons.  He covers a ton of real estate in CF while running good routes on balls and employs excellent arm strength as well.

Weaknesses: His performance has yet to match his tools.  Maybin was rushed through the Tigers farm system and the results were lackluster.  The Marlins have taken a more prudent approach to his development, which seems to have rendered more positive results.  He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough.  This affects his ability to get on base at higher levels and utilize his game changing speed.  He has considerable power potential, but doesn’t seem to know quite how to tap into it.  He hits a high rate of groundballs and struggles at times to generate the necessary swing trajectory to drive pitches.

2009 Outlook: Maybin is ready to become a full time major league hitter.  His development is not quite consummated, but his skill set is too good to keep down on the farm any longer.  Maybin has the potential to be the National League’s best rookie in 2009, but his plate discipline and ability to drive the ball need to improve.  Eventually, his skills should win out and translate to a highly productive major league career.

4.) Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Rasmus has an exciting blend of speed and power potential that could land him at the top of a lineup or in the middle.  He has shown an ability to draw walks and is an impact player on the basepaths.  Defensively, Rasmus is as good as they come.  His spectacular plays and vast range reminds some of a former Gold Glove CF that patrolled Busch Stadium for years, Jim Edmonds.

Weaknesses: Injuries hampered Rasmus last season and for the second season in a row, Colby struggled in the early parts of the season.  Additionally, Colby has yet to display the ability to hit for a high average since his 2006 numbers at short season Quad Cities.

2009 Outlook: The Cardinals seem ready to have Rasmus challenge to take over the everyday CF duties on Opening Day.  Rasmus has the ability to put up Grady Sizemore-like numbers in future seasons, but odds are that he will suffer some growing pains in his first couple of seasons.  Hopefully they will be limited to performance and not health.

5.) Matt LaPorta—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: LaPorta has 30-40 HR power potential and the ability to hit for a high average as well.  Matt is a polished hitter with good plate discipline and above average hand-eye coordination.  LaPorta has an engaging personality that makes him a positive presence in every clubhouse and a potential team leader.

Weaknesses: Matt struggled after being traded to Cleveland, but those shouldn’t affect his long term development.  He is a fringe average defensive player as both an outfielder and first baseman.  He may end up as a DH in future seasons.  He has below average speed that makes him a coagulant on the bases.

2009 Outlook:  Matt will make his MLB debut at some point this season, probably after May.  Expect him to rebound from last year’s struggles at Akron to hit very well at AAA Columbus.  Once he arrives, his power bat should anchor the middle of the Indians lineup for several seasons to come.

6.) Dexter Fowler—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Fowler is an exciting athlete with top of the order speed and the ability to hit for average and decent power numbers.  He has exhibited a great deal of patience at the plate which results in a high number of walks.  Defensively, Dexter is exciting to watch.  He tracks down balls well in the gaps making highlight reel plays and his strong arm should play anywhere.  He is an intelligent player who once turned down a basketball scholarship to Harvard.

Weaknesses: Fowler needs to continue to get stronger.  His wiry frame doesn’t quite produce the pop that people anticipate he will eventually develop.  He had a problem with injuries in the past, though his ‘08 season was injury free. 

2009 Outlook: Fowler has a great shot to make the club out of spring training as Ryan Spilborghs is his only competition in CF.  A good showing this spring should relegate Spilborghs to the 4th oufielder spot.  If things don’t go well in spring training, the Rockies may elect to send him to Colorado Springs for some fine tuning.  Fowler is a prime top of the lineup candidate whose best years are ahead of him.

7.) Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Top of the lineup skills that includes elite speed that can steal 25-30 bases per MLB season, and an advanced, patient approach at the plate that draws a high amount of walks.  McCutchen has a highly athletic and wiry frame that has intriguing power potential.  He has put on some muscle in the offseason which could well translate into more HR’s.  He plays with an elevated level of confidence and seems to put up better numbers after every promotion.  McCutchen’s also has the potential to be a Gold Glove outfielder with a propensity to make spectacular plays.

Weaknesses: The power hasn’t developed as some have expected, perhaps partly due being rushed through the Pirates’ system.  Also, he needs to be more disciplined on the basepaths as well.  McCutchen was caught stealing 19 times in 53 chances last season.

2009 Outlook: The long awaited MLB debut for Andrew McCutchen will happen this season, but not in April.  The Pirates would like to have him play every day and are still trying to assess the potential productivity of Steven Pearce, Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan.  Once McCutchen makes his debut, he should rise to the challenge and be the rock solid impact player atop Pittsburgh’s lineup for the next several years.

8.) Fernando Martinez—New York Mets

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Martinez has a quick swing that generates good leverage that should be able to produce 25-30 HR per season within the next couple of years.  Those who watch him rave about his advanced hitting approach and feel that he can evolve into a .300 hitter. 

Weaknesses: He’s been bitten by the injury bug over the past couple of seasons which has hampered some of his development.  Aside from his outstanding bat, his other skills are average.  The Mets organization would like to see him demonstrate more patience at the plate as advanced pitchers will find ways to get him out.

2009 Outlook: F-Mart is on the cusp of a big time breakout.  His performance in the Dominican Winter League gave a brief glimpse of power to come.  The Mets will likely start him at AAA Buffalo before bringing him up for his MLB debut in the second half of the season.  The offensive ceiling for this 20 year old is incredibly high and someday his name may be mentioned in the same breath as David Wright and Jose Reyes.

9.) Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: The ball explodes off of this kid’s bat.  To project him as a 40 HR hitter may be underestimating his potential ceiling.  At 6-5 225 lb., Stanton is built like a statue but has the athleticism of an NFL wide receiver.  His plus speed and arm strength makes him a prototypical RF in the mold of Dave Winfield.  He is an intelligent young man with a great work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: 158 punchouts is to high, even for a hitter with Stanton’s immense power.  He is fooled quite easily by breaking pitches and still has a raw feel for the strike zone.  Despite his good speed, Michael Stanton doesn’t steal many bags-a trend that should continue as he matures. 

2009 Outlook: A 39 HR season as a 19 year old puts Stanton on the fast track.  He should start the season at High-A Jupiter and could earn a promotion to AA Jacksonville if all goes well.  The chances for a 2009 slump is a real possibility.  Stanton has propelled himself onto the radar screens of just about every minor league pitcher.  The Florida State League is a pitcher’s haven and the expectations heaped upon Stanton after his ‘08 campaign will be difficult to uphold.  Long term, his place alongside Cameron Maybin and opposite John Raynor will give the Marlins an outfield as talented as any in major league baseball within the next few seasons.

10.) Michael Taylor—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Taylor is a complete hitter with a muscular 6-6 250 lb. frame and left handed swing that can launch balls into the stratosphere.  He is an excellent athlete that runs well, steals bases and plays a very good right field.  His plate discipline is quite advanced and he brings an intelligent approach to all aspects of his game.

Weaknesses: Given his size, it is conceivable that he could lose some of his basestealing abilities as he ages and could become more of a power hitter.  His BB/K ratio regressed after his promotion to High-A, though it didn’t have a noticable effect on his batting average.  He is currently 23 years old and needs to avoid having any setbacks at AA or AAA in order to maintain his status as an elite prospect. 

2009 Outlook: AA will be the next step for Taylor.  This should provide a firm indicator to the true scope of his offensive skills.  If he can continue his torrid hitting, Taylor could vault himself into the top five slots on this list.  Expect him to be in the major leagues at some time in 2010…perhaps in April.

Stay tuned for the second half of this list and feel free to comment of the Top 10.  There are plenty of sound investments in this group of future superstars and the market for their cards is starting to sizzle.  If you are looking to make a purchase, please feel free to do so through one of my eBay affiliate links!

Top 20 Second Base Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 5, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

When I started brainstorming this list, I thought that it would be full of stinkers.  Second basemen have historically been nothing more than mediocre infield prospects who couldn’t cut it on the left side of the infield.  However, players like Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, and others have ushered dwellers of the 4-hole to a more respected place amongst the skill positions.  The headliner of this list is Philadelphia Phillies prospect Jason Donald, who has yet to play a professional game at 2B.  However, his expected Opening Day nod in place of the injured Mr. Utley lends credence to his inclusion on this list.

1.) Jason Donald—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Donald has a well rounded set of polished skills that are major league ready.  His leadership, baseball instincts, and work ethic are highly lauded within the organization.

Weaknesses: None of his tangible skills stand out as being above average.  Defensively, Donald can play several infield positions, but he doesn’t dazzle at any one of them.

2009 Outlook: Utley has stated publicly that he expects to be ready for opening day which, if true, will push Donald either over to 3B in place of the injured Pedro Feliz or to AAA Ottawa for some more seasoning.  Donald’s leadership and all out efforts will be well appreciated in the city of brotherly love and could propel this former Arizona Wildcat to become a sentimental fan favorite…at least until he gets traded…or suffers an 0-20 slump.

 

2.) Chris Coghlan—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His tireless competitive drive and sound fundamental skills allow for him to put up good numbers in a variety of categories.  Coghlan has excellent plate discipline and a line drive bat that could hit for a high average at the major league level.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have great range defensively, and his power tends to hit gaps rather than seats. 

2009 Outlook: Coghlan’s future is directly correlated with the destiny of current Marlin 2B Dan Uggla.  There have been rumors swirling in the offseason that Florida is looking to trade Uggla, but nothing substantial has materialized yet.  Coghlan, in the meanwhile, will continue to polish off his development at AAA Albequerqe until room is made for him on the big league roster.

3.) Sean Rodriguez—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Sean-Rod has intriguing power potential that could translate to at least 20-25 HR per season with the Angels.  Defensively, he has a strong arm, a quick first step and soft hands that should make him an above average fielder.

Weaknesses: Rodriguez left his plate discipline in Salt Lake City after his promotion to L.A.  A disciplined hitter at AAA, Sean became over-agressive at L.A.  Also, his bulky build (6-1 215 lb.) is great for power potential, but should have an adverse effect on his range and athleticism as he ages.

2009 Outlook: Rodriguez is currently blocked by Howie Kendrick at 2B, but Kendrick has failed to complete any of his first three seasons without missing substantial time with injuries.  Rodriguez’s powerful bat is close to ready and the Angels may want to consider giving Sean some reps in the OF to increase their options.  Vlad Guerrero is rapidly losing his athleticism and Juan Rivera has a laundry list of injury woes as well.  Rodriguez turns 24 in April and the best from him is yet to come.

4.) Eric Young Jr.—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: World class speed and excellent lead off skills make the junior version of Eric Young a potentially better player than his father.  Young also turned in an MVP performance in the ‘08 Arizona Fall League adding surprising power to his game, hitting 5 HR in just 100 AB.

Weaknesses: Second base may be a temporary home for Young as his glove and footwork are below average.  His power spike in the AFL, while encouraging, may not carry forward to Colorado.

2009 Outlook: If he is able to stay at 2B, his chances of staying in Colorado are much better.  The Rockies are loaded with good young outfielders and Young’s offensive upside is quite a bit better than current second baseman Clint Barmes.  Watch Young’s performance at AAA Colorado Springs to see if the power carries forward and the defense improves. 

5.) Eric Sogard—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Much like Coghlan, Sogard has a well rounded set of polished skills that, when matched with his work ethic and competitive drive, allows him to put up big numbers across the board.  Sogard has surprising pop for someone his size and has a knack for driving in clutch runs.  His plate disicpline and high contact rates makes him a solid top of the lineup hitter.

Weaknesses: Sogard has average athleticism and speed which could serve as a minor detriment to his defensive range and quickness on the basepaths in future seasons.

2009 Outlook: Sogard will look to demonstrate that his gaudy stats at Lake Elsinore were not a California League aberration.  His skill set, both tangible and intangible, closely resembles that of 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.  By this time next season, Sogard could easily be #1 on this list.

6.) Nick Noonan—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His athletic and projectible frame should build more strength as it matures.  Noonan hit a combined 34 doubles and triples to go with his seven HR.  This leads me to believe that he can develop into a 12-18 HR hitter in the future.  Noonan has an advanced mental approach both offensively and defensively and he utilizes his speed well on the basepaths.  He should be a leadoff or #2 hitter at the major league level.

Weaknesses: Noonan needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition.  He tends to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, limiting his batting average totals and on base opportunities.

2009 Projection: High-A San Jose is his April destination and Noonan has the opportunity to put up some big numbers there.  He is part of a highly talented youth movement that includes the likes of Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, and Tim Alderson.  Look out for this Giants franchise in the next 3-5 seasons!

7.) Jose Vallejo—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lethal top of the order speed and high efficiency on the basepaths.  Vallejo was successful on 94% of his stolen bag attempts (89 of 96) over the last two seasons.  His bat produces sizzling line drives from both sides of the plate and he showed a big spike in XBH power at both High-A and AA last season.  Defensively, Vallejo has good range and a strong arm that should make him an above average fielder.

Weaknesses:  Vallejo’s increase in power came at two environments that tend to surrender inflated offensive numbers.  Is the power spike for real?  Also, Jose needs to trim up his BB/K ratio.  Turning 15-20 of those strikeouts into walks could make him a top of the order hitter.

2009 Outlook: Vallejo may be a victim of circumstance.  Ian Kinsler has emerged as a perennial All-Star and his tenure in Texas looks to be a long one.  However, the Rangers are on the cusp of being a bonafide contender in the AL West and Vallejo could find himself being shipped to another organization in a package deal for more pitching depth.  Jose will increase his stock if he can demonstrate that the power increase is real.  He’ll get a chance to do that at AA Frisco this year.

8.) Adrian Cardenas—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Adrian has a smooth left-handed swing that should develop 15-20 HR power and a high batting average as he matures.  He makes good contact at the plate and has good plate discipline.  Cardenas has average athleticism and speed, but he uses what he has efficiently.

Weaknesses: He has a thick torso and legs that should get slower as he ages.  He may eventually end up at 3B which would make his power potential a touch below average. 

2009 Outlook: Adrian should start the season back at AA Midland.  This should give the 21 year old a chance to develop his power numbers a little more.  Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez are under contract through at least 2010, which should give Cardenas more than enough time to refine his skills.

9.) Matt Antonelli—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Antonelli plays at full throttle at all times.  He has a strong, athletic body that could produce 20 HR/20 SB seasons.  Matt grinds out AB’s and works deep into counts which helps boost his walk totals and on base percentage.

Weaknesses: What happened in 2008?  Antonelli’s precipitous drop off is a little concerning as the usual culprits (injuries or breakdowns in plate discipline) were not factors.  He has solid athleticism now but, like Cardenas, he has a thick build that could lose speed and athleticism as he gets older.

2009 Outlook: Antonelli may have been a victim of bad luck in 2008.  Expect his numbers to rebound to a level that is in between his stellar ‘07 season and his lack luster ‘08.  The Padres currently list Edgar Gonzalez and Luis Rodriguez ahead of Antonelli on their depth chart, but a big spring could well change all of that.  Otherwise, Matt will start the season at AAA Portland and earn a call up at some point soon after Opening Day.

10.) Ryan Mount—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Big time raw power.  Mount blasted 14 of his 16 HR’s over the final two months of the season.  His frame is continuing to develop and the promise for more power is intriguing.  He makes good contact at the plate and can steal the occasional bag as well.

Weaknesses: Nagging injuries, especially in his legs, has slowed his development and probably will diminish his athleticism as he ages.  Mount already has fringe average range at 2B and his glovework was not awe inspiring.  Mount needs to continue to work on raising his walk totals as advanced pitchers will exploit his aggressiveness.

2009 Outlook: Mount has been preliminarily placed on Salt Lake City’s roster, which seems a tad aggressive given his limited exposure at lower levels.  If Mount can stay healthy, his offensive upside is as good as Sean Rodriguez’s.  His heavy legs may force him to move to 3B down the road.

11.) Jemile Weeks-Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Weeks is a prototypical leadoff hitter with elite speed, excellent plate discipline, and a line drive bat.  Weeks makes good contact with most everything he swings at and has good defensive range.

Weaknesses: His other defensive skills are below average which means that a shift to the OF may happen soon.  Weeks doesn’t have near as much power as his older brother Rickie.

2009 Outlook: Weeks should play at High-A Stockton to start the season.  Given that he has extensive collegiate experience, a performance based promotion to AA Midland is not at all out of the question.  The A’s have been devoid of speedy, top of the order guys in their farm system for years.  Jemile has a good chance to buck that trend within the next 2-3 seasons.

12.) Chih-Hsien Chiang—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His bat is the real deal.  Chiang has a long, agile frame that should be able to hit for more power without sacrificing his good batting average.  The Taiwanese prospect makes good contact at the plate and is aggressive with pitches in the strike zone.

Weaknesses: Chiang is not a good defensive player.  He worked out in the Fall Instructional League as an OF, which means that a position change could happen as soon as this spring.  Chiang is not a weapon on the basepaths either. 

2009 Outlook: AA Portland well be a challenge for Chiang.  Watch to see how his power and defense progresses.  With his big frame, he has the potential to be a 15-20 HR hitter within the next season or two.

13.) L.J. Hoes—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Hoes has an impressive assortment of tools.  His sinewy 6-1 185 lb. frame should build good power as he matures and his speed is well above average.  Many young hitters struggle with their plate discipline coming out of HS, but Hoes’ 30 BB/22 K ratio is nothing short of awesome.  Hoes also has a hose for an arm, being clocked at 95 MPH in high school.  He is said to be a good teammate with a tremendous work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: Right now, it has to be experience, especially at 2B.  Hoes was an outfielder in high school and has only recently made the transition to the infield.  There is promise that he will develop good power, but it is really too early to tell for sure.

2009 Outlook: There is a lot to like in this youngster and his ranking may be a bit conservative at this time.  He should get a shot at full season ball with Delmarva this spring.  That should give us all a better feel for just how good this Maryland native could someday be.

14.) Luis Valbuena—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Valbuena has a nice left-handed swing that produces decent power to the gaps and line drives to all fields.  His BB/K ratio improved significantly in ‘08 and he has the speed to steal double digit bags at the major league level.  Defensively, Valbuena has good range and consistently makes plays and limits his error totals.

Weaknesses: The offensive skills are good but not great.  Valbuena’s ceiling is limited to being a solid, middle of the road second baseman with better than average defensive skills.  While this is not necessarily bad, it won’t propel him into the upper echelon of this list.

2009 Outlook: Luis’ skill set is major league ready, but he must first find a way to distinguish himself from the other 2nd basemen on Cleveland’s roster.  His best chance to do that will be this spring.  If he can hit for the power that he displayed in the Venezuelan Winter League (.291 5 HR 20 RBI), there is a possibility that he could make the Tribe’s 25 man roster.  Otherwise, he will head to AAA Columbus to play every day and wait for an opportunity.

15.) Ryan Adams—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Adams has gap power and a strong, athletic frame.  His speed is a tick above average which plays well on the basepaths.  His arm strength is very good which opens his options to play at several positions.

Weaknesses: A change to another position might be a good move.  Adams was awful defensively, making 46 errors at 2B.  He also needs to become a more disciplined hitter.   Last year, Ryan walked just 36 times while punching out 109 times.

2009 Outlook:  There are plenty of things to like in Adam’s bat, but his skills need a great deal of refining.  he will start the ‘09 season at High-A Frederick.  Keep an eye on where he ends up defensively.  It is quite possible that this will be his only appearance on this list.

16.) David Adams—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: This former Virginia Cavalier has a big strong frame but still is nimble enough to be a decent middle infielder a la Jeff Kent.  Adams has the potential to hit for good power numbers and he is deceptively quick.  He is a hard-nosed player with an agressive drive to succeed.

Weaknesses: His size may get in his way as he ages.  He does have a strong enough arm to play 3B, but a move to the hot corner makes his 18-22 HR potential less alluring.

2008 Outlook: Adams will get to start at Low-A Charleston, but any sustained level of success there should earn him a promotion to Tampa.  He should take a good 2-3 seasons to develop, which should give the Yankees ample time to see if he can eventually fill the shoes of All-Star 2B Robinson Cano.

17.) Chris Getz—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Getz is a scrappy player with a line drive bat and solid plate discipline.  He has good defensive instincts and gets the most out of his average speed on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: He has a gaggle of fringe average tools.  He gets the most out of his abilities, but there aren’t many things in his game that makes him a standout player.  Getz is one of those role players that will always be looking over his shoulder for the bigger, better prospect waiting to unseat him.

2009 Outlook: Chris is at the top of the White Sox depth chart at second base.  He should get every opportunity to keep that position but, as stated earlier, his margin for error is finite.

18.) John Tolisano—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Tolisano has built his strength over the last couple of years providing a quicker and more leveraged swing that should provide 15-20 HR power in time.  He has a very strong arm and decent enough range to stick at 2B. 

Weaknesses: He strikes out way too much.  His aggressiveness leads him to swing at pitches out of the zone and to fail to recognize off speed offerings.  His added bulk has made him a touch slower on the basepaths and could cause him to lose a step in the field.

2009 Outlook: Tolisano had a big time drop off in the second half of last season at Low-A Lansing.  He may find himself back there initially in 2009 to work out some issues at the plate.  The Blue Jays are quite optimistic about his future, but his skills will take a good deal of time and patience to fully develop.

19.) Eric Farris—Milwuakee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Farris has blazing speed and a quick bat that makes consistent contact and slashes line drives for a high average.  Farris’ quickness gives him a great deal of range at 2B and makes him a weapon on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: Eric has virtually no power and despite his speed, he is a mediocre defensive infielder.  He needs to build strength with the bat and consistency with the glove.

2009 Outlook: Farris will be AA Huntsville’s starting 2B this season.  The Brewers’ farm system doesn’t have many good middle infielders—especially 2nd basemen.  Farris has some nice top of the lineup tools, but there are several deficiencies in his game that may force the organization to look elsewhere for projectible talent. 

20.) Justin Snyder—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Snyder is polished and patient at the plate.  He has shown the ability to be versitile, serving time at five different positions in ‘08.  He has decent power to the gaps and is a smart and competitive situational hitter.

Weaknesses: Similar to Chris Getz, Snyder is a low ceiling player who will be bumped around by more talented prospects.  He doesn’t have great power and his speed is average at best. 

2009 Outlook: Justin will move to High-A Tampa to continue in his development.  If he could bump up his HR totals, his value as a prospect would be considerably better. 

Others to consider: Daniel Mayora, Emmanuel Burriss, Shelby Ford, Yung-Chi Chen, Emilio Bonafacio, Justin Turner, Ryan Dent, Tony Thomas, Johnny Giavotella

Ok, it is late and I am sleepy….I hope you enjoy the list of 2B and, as always, I can’t wait to hear your comments and/or your own lists.

Top 20 Catching Prospects in ‘09

Posted by Jeremy on January 29, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Here’s the first of a nine part series that will detail the top 20 prospects from each of the various positions on the diamond. Each profile offers only a brief overview.  For more detailed analysis, check out my other site Hot-Prospects.  The prototypical catcher has changed over the past decade or so. Gone are the days of the unathletic and offensively inept backstop. Today’s catching prospects have middle of the lineup bats, rocket arms and good athletic skills. This batch offers no exception and its headliner may just be the best overall prospect in baseball this season.

#1) Matt Wieters—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Um….everything.  You name it, his bat, plate discipline, glove, arm, power, leadership, and work ethic are all at elite levels and ready for major league action. 

Weaknesses: He won’t steal many bags, but then again, which catchers do?  Also, and this is nitpicking, his size evokes comparisons to Joe Mauer which leads me to have fleeting concerns about future injury struggles.  Wieters has never had to miss action in the past, however, and shows no signs of slowing down yet.

2009 Outlook: The O’s signed Greg Zaun in the offseason as insurance for Wieters.  There’s no doubt that he is ready to start in the big leagues, but Baltimore may opt to keep him at AAA Norfolk just long enough hold back the hands of the arbitration clock.  A strong spring could and should make that a moot point.  Once he emerges, he is a top candidate for A.L. Rookie of the Year honors and for many future All-Star seasons.

2.) Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Posey’s bat is electric, slashing deep drives to the gaps and down the lines.  He batted .469 with 23 HR and 93 RBI with the Florida State Seminoles this past season.  He has stellar plate discpline and hand eye coordination.  A converted SS, Posey may be the most athletic catching prospect in baseball with plus defensive skills and agility.

Weaknesses: It is unclear how much power Buster will hit for as a pro.  He had one big power season with an aluminium bat but has been more of a line drive guy since.  He has high upside behind the plate, but is still learning the subtle nuances of the position.

2009 Outlook: The Giants are excited to pair him up with top pitching prospects Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson at High-A San Jose.  Those three will serve as integral pieces in shaping the future success of the Giants organization and the outlook for that happening is quite good.

3.) Jesus Montero—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His bat is golden.  In his first full season, Montero demonstrated that he can hit for a high average and that his power, while good now, has a chance to be great.  Unlike many young hitters, Montero doesn’t strike out too much and he seems to be quite willing to grind out walks 

Weaknesses: His glove is not golden.  Montero’s size affects his agility behind the dish and his quickness in throwing out baserunners (26 of 105).  His 6-4 225 lb. body is not done growing either which should mean that a switch to 1B or DH will soon follow.

2009 Outlook: It’s on to High-A Tampa for Montero to see if he can continue his torrid hitting.  Expect some of those 34 doubles from last season to become HR’s this season and, with the success of Austin Romine (more on him later) behind the dish, expect to see Jesus with a 1B or DH behind his name more often.

4.) Carlos Santana—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His thunderous bat broke through big time in ‘08.  He produces surprising power with a compact swing and fast hands.  His plate discipline is top notch and he has a knack for driving in runs in clutch situations. 

Weaknesses: While he has good receiving skills, his arm is inaccurate (34 of 127 CS) and his release time is below average.  These things shouldn’t deter him from sticking as a catcher, though.  Santana had a great season, but the ability for him to repeat it is yet to be known.

2009 Outlook: Santana will move on to AA Akron where he had a cameo last season.  Heisted from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade, Santana is fully capable of becoming an exceptional option to fill the void behind the plate in Cleveland that Victor Martinez leaves behind. 

5.) Tyler Flowers—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: If the Arizona Fall League performance from Mr. Flowers (.387 12 HR 23 RBI 25 runs in 20 games) is any indication, Tyler may have more power than any other catching prospect in baseball.  With his 6-4 245 lb. frame Flowers can hit just about any pitch out of the ballpark.  Flowers is a highly selective hitter as well walking 98 times in ‘08.

Weaknesses: Like Jesus Montero, Flowers will be hard pressed to stay behind the plate.  His enormous size and below average athleticism makes him a more ideal candidate for one of the infield corner positons.

2009 Outlook: Now as a memeber of the White Sox, Flowers should move on to AA Birmingham or AAA Charlotte for the start to the 2009 season.  Expect Flowers to dramatically exceed his Myrtle Beach HR totals (17) this season.

#6.) J.P. Arencibia—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A powerful bat that can hit 20-25 HR per season at the MLB level and improving defensive tools to go with his top notch leadership skills.

Weaknesses: His plate discipline is awful (18 BB/101 K) and he is a prototypical base-clogging catcher.

2009 Outlook: Arencibia’s power is intriguing, but he is not ready to make his MLB debut.  He should play the entire season at AAA Syracuse before earning a few Rogers Centre AB’s in September.

7.) Lou Marson—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Marson has a line drive bat that produces occasional power to the gaps and should hit for a high batting average in Philly.  His plate discipline is also very good and his receiving skills makes him one of the better defensive backstops in the minor leagues.

Weaknesses: In a position that is becoming increasingly populated with power hitters, Marson has yet to demonstrate much.  If it does come around, he may find himself bumped up a notch or two on this list.

2009 Outlook: Marson got a look last season and performed quite well, but the post season heroics of Carlos Ruiz should mean that the 22 year old Marson will head to AAA Lehigh Valley to start the season.  He’ll be back up at some point—hopefully with a little added thunder in his bat.

8.) Taylor Teagarden—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Teagarden has elite defensive skills.  Baserunners simply do not run on him like they do other minor league catchers.  He has the potential to be a 20 HR hitter in the major leagues and his brief stint in Texas was nothing short of impressive.

Weaknesses: Injuries have cost Teagarden costly development time early in his career.  His subpar performances in two hitter-friendly environments (Frisco and Oklahoma City) raises the question “Who is thre REAL Taylor Teagarden?”

2009 Outlook: The Rangers are flush with young catchers.  There have been some trade rumors swirling around one of them (more likely Saltalamacchia or Ramirez) heading to Boston.  Teagarden’s defensive advantages supercedes both Salty and Max Ram’s offensive upsides.  Expect Teagarden to get the majority of AB’s in Texas this season.

#9) Jonathan Lucroy—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lucroy has surprising power from his average sized frame and he blends it with above average plate discipline.  His defensive skills are underrated as he gunned down 49 % of would be base stealers and earned a .989 fielding %.

Weaknesses: Lucroy’s athleticism has probably peaked already and there is a chance that his numbers may slip a little as he progresses against more advanced competition. 

2009 Outlook: He’ll start at AA Huntsville and may get a look at AAA Nashville at some point this season.  Angel Salome’s sterling ‘08 season has placed him in Milwaukee’s immediate plans, but Lucroy’s blend of skills is considerably better and it is only a matter of time until he surpasses Salome.

10.) Angel Salome—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Salome makes good contact at the plate and peppers line drives all over the field.  He is compact and powerfully built and his athleticism and arm strength are both above average.

Weaknesses: Salome’s receiving skills and arm accuracy are rudimentary at this point.  Also, while he has good power to the gaps, he will likely be a 10-15 HR hitter in the major leagues.  Salome’s mechanics at the plate have been characterized as “unconventional” and “ugly but effective”.  This could lead to problems against pitchers paid to exploit those flaws.

2009 Outlook: Salome is a better option than any of the three other receivers on Milwaukee’s roster.  He will be given a shot at earning a spot in the Brewers’ opening day lineup.  If he doesn’t succeed, he will head back to AAA Nashville and wait for his opportunity.

11.) Hank Conger—L.A. Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Conger can flat out hit.  He has power from both sides of the plate and has a knack for driving in runs in bunches.  He has a good approach at the plate and is aggressive with pitches in the strike zone.    His arm strength is also quite strong.

Weaknesses: Conger is a walking M.A.S.H. unit.  He has missed time in each of his first three seasons suffering from various maladies.  Behind the plate, Conger’s skills are below average and a move to 1B or DH seems to be in the making.

2009 Outlook: Hopefully it is a healthy one.  He’ll start at AA Arkansas with a promotion to Salt Lake City being a possibility.  The Angels would love to get his bat into their lineup in some capacity or another by mid-2010.

12.) Kyle Skipworth—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Power, power, power.  Skipworth has it from foul pole to foul pole and the fact that it comes from the left hand side of the plate makes him even more valuable.  He has a cannon for an arm and he is not afraid to use it to nab unaware baserunners.

Weaknesses: His other skills behind the plate are quite sloppy.  He has hard hands and his large size makes affects his coordination and quickness at blocking balls in the dirt and rising from a crouch.  His debut with the GCL league also showed that he needs some work on his plate discipline as well.

2009 Outlook: The Marlins should give Skipworth a shot a full season Low-A ball this year at Greensboro.  If he struggles early on, he may go back down to short season Jamestown.  The future is very bright for this youngster, he just needs time.

13.) Brett Lawrie—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats: Not Available

Strengths: Lawrie had one of the most intriguing prep bats in the 2008 draft.  He has plus-plus power potential and exceptional bat speed.  Additionally, his athleticism could eventually make him a solid defensive player behind the plate.

Weaknesses: Rawness and inexperience.  There are quite a few unknowns about how Lawrie will develop defensively and he may need to shift to another position if catching doesn’t take.

2009 Outlook: With both Salome and Lucroy already experiencing success in the system.  The Brewers will opt to take their time with Lawrie.  He should get some work at extended spring training before joining the Brewers’ short season affiliate Helena.

14.) Max Ramirez—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Max Ram has an explosive bat that hits for a high average and good power to all fields.  He is an aggressive hitter who makes good contact and drives in runs by the bunches.

Weaknesses: He is a terrible defensive catcher.  The Rangers have tried to find a different position for him to play (1B, LF, DH) and the odds are pretty good that his future resides with one of them.

2009 Outlook: Ramirez’s Venezuelan Winter League stint (.298 15 HR 53 RBI) has the Rangers abuzz about his potential in their lineup, but there are log jams at every stop.  I think his future in Texas will not be long lived.  The Rangers need pitching and he is one of the best young bats that they have available for trade.

#15.) Derek Norris—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Norris drew 63 walks in 70 games at short season baseball.  He has an athletic and powerful catcher’s build that profiles to hit for power and average as well.  He has good speed for a catcher and will steal the occasional base.  Defensively, Norris has solid all around skills and a strong arm that gunned out 47 % of potential base stealers last season.

Weaknesses: Norris needs to prove he can continue this success at full season ball.  He could cut his K rate back a little bit as well.

2009 Projection: Full season Low-A Harrisburg seems to be the likely destination for Norris.  There is quite a bit of upside in this young receiver’s game and he could find himself much higher on this list next season.

16.) Wilin Rosario—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Rosario’s bat has the potential to be a middle of the lineup run producer that hits 20-25 HR per season with a high batting average.  He is an aggressive hitter who have excellent bat speed and wiry strength.  His arm is a force to be reckoned with as he vanquished 46% of potential base stealers in ‘08.

Weaknesses: His high energy approach tends to make him overly aggressive at the plate at times.  He will be challenged to continue his stellar numbers at the next level.  It will be important for him to work counts more effectively to avoid a drop off.

2009 Outlook: Low-A Asheville awaits Rosario.  This should be an environment where his bat will continue to flourish.  Like Derek Norris, another fine season from Wilin Rosario will bump him considerably higher on next season’s list.

17.) Adam Moore—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Moore is big and strong (6-3 220 lb.) and his bat shows it.  He is not just a masher, though.  Moore hits the ball well to all fields and has a sound approach at the plate in all situations.  He is a solid game caller and should be a vocal leader in the clubhouse.

Weaknesses:He has made good strides in his defensive game, due in large part to extensive work with M’s catching instructor Roger Hanson.  However, his large frame has a negative effect on his mobility, as testified by his 44 passed balls over the past two seasons.

2009 Outlook: The M’s have Kenji Johjima and Matt Clement blocking Moore’s opportunities in Seattle, but he won’t be far away.  He’ll play the majority of the season at AAA Tacoma and will continue to work on his agility behind the dish.  Expect a call up in September.

18.) Austin Romine—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Romine’s first season offensive numbers were icing on the cake to many analysts who are more enamored with his athleticism and elite arm strength.  Romine showed that he could be an offensive force as well who hits for a good average and solid power numbers.

Weaknesses:Romine didn’t put his defensive abilities to good use in ‘08, throwing out just 20 of 98 base runners and allowing 18 passed balls. 

2009 Outlook: Romine continues alongside fellow catching prospect Jesus Montero to High-A Tampa for more development.  It will be interesting to see how the Yankees organization addresses this developing situation.  The best bet is that Montero will be the one who shifts to 1B.

19.) Bryan Anderson—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Anderson has a line drive bat and highly developed plate discipline.  He is an intelligent player who has a great feel for calling pitches and commanding a pitching staff.  He should hit for a high average at the major league and play solid defense.

Weaknesses: The power has not developed yet, as Anderson’s career high for HR’s in a season is 6.  He is an average athlete who has a low ceiling for development.

2009 Outlook: Anderson’s path to St. Louis is obscured by Yadier Molina who is entering the prime of his career and is under contract through at least 2011.  Likely, Bryan will be playing everyday at AAA Springfield again in hopes that he can develop a little more pop in his bat to draw attention of the Cardinals’ brass.

20.) Wilson Ramos—Minnesota Twins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Ramos is very strong with good bat speed that produces power to all fields.  He is a good athlete as well with above average quickness for a catcher and a strong, accurate arm (43% CS rate in ‘08).

Weaknesses: His aggressiveness can get him in trouble at times at the plate.  He strikes out too much and walks too little (37 BB/103 K).

2009 Outlook:  AA New Britain will provide a good challenge for Ramos this season and give us all abetter look at his potential going forward.  If he can hone his plate discipline, he should move up this list.  If not, he could find himself off of it.

Others to consider:

Luis Exposito, Jason Castro, Josh Donaldson, Mike McKenry, Francisco Pena, Jacob Jefferies, Petey Paramore, Adrian Nieto,

Stay tuned for the next installment as we travel 90 ft. up the 1st base line to examine the formidable Top 20 1st Basemen.  If you enjoyed this series, feel free to check out some of the eBay links to some great auctions going on right now.  Use the comments list below to propose your top 20 catchers or comment on mine!

Your Daily Value #38

Posted by Jeremy on January 26, 2009 under Your Daily Value | Be the First to Comment

1997 Bowman Chrome JASON WERTH RC

Current eBay Price—$2.00-3.00

This late bloomer’s stock began to rise during the second half of last season in which he hit .279 with 13 HR 35 RBI and 12 SB, and his stellar performance in the World Series (8-18 HR 3 RBI 4 SB) could mean that Werth’s cards could experience a significant bump in market value in 2009.

Jayson began his career as a catcher in the Orioles organization before injuries and mediocre minor league performances bounced him to the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and finally, the Phillies.  Prior to 2008, Werth was strictly a platoon player whose right handed bat absolutely decimated LHP’s.  Last year was no exception, as Werth batted .303/.368/.652 with 16 HR in just 155 AB’s against southpaws.  Manager Charlie Manuel decided to give Werth more at bats against righthanders and, while his splits are less impressive, (.255/.360/. BA), there has been considerable improvement which may lead him to feel more confident in taking a more power condusive approach against RHP’s.  In addition to his power numbers, Werth has demonstrated that he is a highly aggressive and intelligent baserunner (20 of 21 SB attempts) and an athletically gifted defensive OF as well.

I think that we can expect even more from Werth this season IF he can stay healthy.  This has been a problem in the past and he has yet to prove that he can handle the rigors or a 162 game schedule.  If he does, it seems quite possible that Werth could bump his numbers up into the 30 HR/30 SB range while scoring 100+ runs at the top part of Philly’s high-octane offense. 

Werth’s best 1st year card is the 1997 Bowman Chrome card and, while it is not a rare card, it is one that is difficult to find in bulk quantities.  Autographed cards for Werth are not that plentiful either.  He has a 2005 SPX auto #/350 that seems like a good bargain at $6-8 and his 2007 UD Elements Autos can be had in the $7.50-10.00 range.

Top Caribbean Winter League Performer #7

Posted by Jeremy on January 19, 2009 under Prospects in Products | Be the First to Comment

7.) CARLOS CARRASCO—Phliadelphia Phillies RHP

Carrasco has carried the momentum that he had from AAA Lehigh Valley down to the hitter-friendly Venezuelan Winter League.  Carrasco has been the top pitching prospect in the Phillies’ farm system for the past couple of seasons with very good pitches, a 91-94 MPH fastball with good movement, a slurve and a changeup that has been lauded as being the best in Philadelphia’s farm system.  The World Champs have several options to fill the #5 spot in their rotation including southpaw Kyle Kendrick and mediocre veteran righties Adam Eaton and Chan Ho Park.  Carrasco’s upside is surpassed only by postseason hero Cole Hamels.  He has tossed nearly 200 innings this past year which could affect the amount of work that Philly decides to give him in spring training.  He will likely go back to Lehigh Valley to start the season, but in the event of an injury or struggle from the #5 starter, Carrasco’s name will be the first one called as a replacement.  He will get his shot at some point in 2009!