8/11 AA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 12, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Yesterday’s scoreboard was limited almost exclusively to the Eastern League so today’s breakdown may be a little thin.  Carlos Santana came a homerun away from hitting for the cycle, driving in his 83rd and 84th runs of the season.  Santana has hit full stride this season after a July that saw him hit .311 with 8 HR and 29 RBI.  For the season, the Indians’ young receiver is hitting .288 with 20 HR 84 RBI 25 doubles and 74 runs scored.  Like last year, the plate discipline continues to be one of Santana’s strong suits as his 71 BB/68 K has helped to push his OBP to .410 this year.  Santana is a guy who can hit at the major league level right now and probably will do so very soon.  The trade of Victor Martinez has opened the door wide open for Carlos and there is not much that either Kelly Shoppach or Lou Marson can do to hold him back.  Currently, Santana’s 2008 Bowman Sterling autos sell for $22-25 each and his Razor Metal autos command about $9-12 each.  Santana ranks amongst Matt Wieters and Buster Posey as one of baseball’s elite young catchers.  If he can secure a spot in Cleveland’s opening day lineup next year, he should be one of the early AL ROY favorites.

Today’s top prospect is Florida Marlins top prospect Michael Stanton.  Yesterday, Stanton hit his 24th HR on the season as part of a three hit, three RBI day.  The 19 year old has struggled during the month of August hitting just .227 during his first 11 games.  This isn’t too big of a surprise.  The Marlins are moving him quickly through their system and the plate discipline has had trouble catching up.  After posting promising BB/K numbers (28/45) at High-A, Stanton has not been able to replicate that success at the AA level as he has walked 21 times and has 72 strikeouts in 56 games.  The power has carried forward though and I think the plate discipline will emerge as Stanton gathers more experience.  The eBay market for Stanton’s various 2008 autos has remained solid throughout this season with his heavily traded Bowman Chrome autos selling at $32-35 each, but his Razor autos (#/1199) have slipped to single digits in value.  I think that Stanton should stay in AA for the remainder of the season and will benefit greatly from playing in an offseason league.  He’ll be just 20 years old on opening day next year and should start the season in AAA before earning a much heralded callup at some point next season.  Watch to see if the market cools during the offseason and pounce on some of his autos.

AA Player of the Day—MICHAEL STANTON 

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Carlos Santana—3-5 2B 3B 2 RBI R
• Carlos Rivero—2-3 R RBI BB
• Brandon Crawford—2-4 2 2B RBI
• Mike Mooney—2-4 2B 3B 2R
• Brennan Boesch—1-4 HR(25) RBI
• Casper Wells—2-4 2B R
• Erik Lis—2-4 2B HR(15) 2 RBI
• Brad Emaus—1-4 HR(9) RBI 2R BB
• Josh Bell—3-6 2B R
• Luis Exposito—3-4 RBI
• Gorkys Hernandez—3-6 3R RBI
• Shelby Ford—2-5 2R 2 RBI
• Pedro Alvarez—3-4 2B R 2 RBI BB
• Steve Lerud—3-5 2B R
• Austin Krum—2-4 2B 2R BB SB(9)
• Edaurdo Nunez—3-5 R RBI 2 SB(16)
• Michael Stanton—3-5 HR(24) 3 RBI 2R
• Logan Morrison—3-4 2B 2 RBI R BB
• Bryan Peterson—2-4 3R BB

Pitching:

• Michael Crotta—5.2 IP 6H 2 UER BB 4K W (6-6)
• Eric Niesen—6 IP 5H 2 ER 2 BB 8K
• Michael Stutes—6 IP 7H ER 2 BB 6K

8/11 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Allen Craig really likes to hit in the thin air of Colorado Springs as he belted three HR’s during a double header to raise his tally to 21 on the season.  Craig has been as hot as any hitter in the minor leagues since the All Star break, hitting .446 with 13 HR 30 RBI and 27 runs scored in just 28 games.  Craig continues to play in the outfield which surprises me in the wake of the Brett Wallace trade.  He’s never been a bad fielder at 3B, but the organization seems to find him a better fit in left field.  Regardless of where he’s playing, Craig has been the best hitter in the Cardinals’ organization this season and should earn a big league call up at some point this year.  His only first year cards are in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft set and his singles can still be had in lots for less than a buck apiece.

Gaby Sanchez was a darkhorse N.L. ROY candidate by some baseball pundits on the heels of his fine 2008 season at AA Carolina.  Instead, he like fellow Marlins teammate Cameron Maybin, struggled to earn playing time with the big club and was demoted to New Orleans.  Last night, Sanchez went 3-5 with his 12th and 13th dingers, driving in five runs and scoring four times.  Sanchez has been hot during the month of August, hitting .325 with 4 HR 7 RBI and a killer 10 BB/3K ratio.  Sanchez is in a tough spot.  Logan Morrison has made a successful return from a broken wrist and is driving the ball with authority in AA.  He’s the heir to the first base job in Miami, leaving Sanchez either to switch to a new position or continue to toil at AAA.  At his best, Gaby is a well disciplined hitter with decent power to the gaps and above average defensive skills that could help him carve out a starting job with a big league club someday.

Today’s top prospect is one of Cleveland’s newest additions, RHP Carlos Carrasco.  After back to back rocky starts with Columbus, Carrasco tossed eight innings of four hit, one run ball, striking out 10 hitters for his 9th victory of the season.  Carrasco has the stuff to be a frontline pitcher at the major league level, but his inability to establish consistency and pitch with confidence at times was maddening to the Phillies franchise.  Perhaps the move to Cleveland will be just what Carlos needs to rediscover his potential as an MLB stopper.  Surely this outing does wonders for his chances to crack the Indians’ rotation at some point this season.  Carrasco’s 2008 Bowman Sterling Jsy/Autos are currently trading at $4-6 each on eBay and seem like a solid low risk buy for someone who has slipped off of many collectors’ radars.

AAA Player of the Day—CARLOS CARRASCO

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Matt Tuiasosopo—1-4 2B 2 RBI R
• Mike Carp—1-4 R 2 RBI BB
• Adam Moore—4-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Tony Abreu—1-5 HR(10) RBI
• Gaby Sanchez—3-5 2 HR(13) 5 RBI 4R BB
• John Raynor—2-6 2R RBI SB(16)
• Brett Hayes—2-4 R 3 RBI BB
• Travis Buck—3-4 2B 3 RBI SB(3)
• Allen Craig—2-3 2 HR(20) 3 RBI 2R (Game 1)…..1-3 HR(21) RBI (Game 2)
• Jarret Hoffpauir—2-3 2B 3B RBI R
• Eric Young Jr.—3-5 RBI (Game 1)…..1-2 R BB SB(55) (Game 2)
• Brandon Allen—3-4 2B 2R RBI BB
• Cole Gillespie—2-5 2B 2 RBI
• Chris Johnson—2-3 2B HR(10) RBI
• Juan Miranda—1-5 2B R 2 RBI
• Travis Snider—2-4 RBI
• Drew Stubbs—2-4 RBI
• John Mayberry Jr.—2-3 R SB(6)
• Lou Marson—3-4 R RBI
• Wes Hodges—2-4 2B R
• Justin Maxwell—2-3 R SB(28)
• Brent Clevlen—2-3 HR(15) RBI
• Aaron Bates—2-4 2B R

Pitching:

• Scott Elbert—4 IP 2H 3 BB 3K
• Travis Wood—6 IP 6H ER 3 BB K W (12-4)
• Carlos Carrasco—8 IP 4H ER 10K W (9-9)

8/6 AAA Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on August 8, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Brandon Wood hit two more homeruns last night to raise his season’s total at AAA Salt Lake City to 19.  Wood continues to demonstrate, like his teammate Sean Rodriguez, that he can be a devastating power hitter at the AAA level while struggling mightily in a major league lineup.  Personally, I think that both of these guys would benefit greatly from a change of scenery.  The Angels’ success over the years has limited the margin of patience that they can exercise towards giving players opportunities to play through their growing pains.  A move to a rebuilding franchise would give each of these young and highly talented players that opportunity.  That won’t happen this year, though, and is a minute possibility in the offseason.  Both Wood and Rodriguez are still just 24 and I remain optimistic that they will get a chance within the next season to earn playing time either in an Angels jersey or for another franchise.  Wood’s 2003 Bowman Chrome Draft auto is still a prevalent commodity on the eBay market, but the price has settled down into the $15-18 range.  While this remains a moderately high risk investment, the 2003 Bowman Chrome Draft cards, both autos and non-autos have proven to be high demand items in the past.

Today’s top prospect is St. Louis Cardinals OF Shane Robinson.  The 24 year old centerfielder went 2-3 yesterday with his 4th HR, five RBI, two runs scored and his 16th SB.  Robinson is the prototypical fourth outfielder type who plays solid defense and hits for good contact.  However, there is not much punch to speak of in his bat and Memphis teammate Jon Jay has a higher ceiling than him going forward. 

AAA Player of the Day—SHANE ROBINSON

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Justin Smoak—1-4 2B 2 RBI BB
• Mike Baxter—3-4 2 2B SB(5)
• Chad Huffman—2-4 HR(15) 4 RBI 2B BB
• Chin Lung Hu—3-5 3B 3R 2 RBI
• Alcides Escobar—1-4 HR(4) RBI BB 2 SB(40)
• Blake DeWitt—3-5 3B 2 RBI R
• Angel Salome—4-5 RBI
• Mat Gamel—2-4 2B R RBI BB
• Eric Young Jr.—3-5 2R 3B BB
• Shane Robinson—2-3 HR(4) 5 RBI 2R BB SB(16)
• Matt Tuiasosopo—2-5 RBI
• Brandon Wood—2-4 2 HR(19) 3 RBI BB 2R
• John Hester—2-4 2B R RBI
• Aaron Mathews—4-6 R
• Tyler Flowers—2-4 2B RBI
• Jose Tabata—-2-4 R
• Jeff Clement—2-4 HR(18) 2 RBI 2R
• Brandon Jones—1-4 HR(4) 2 RBI
• Wilkin Ramirez—2-4 2B 3 RBI
• Jeff Frazier—3-5 3 2B R RBI
• Brent Clevlen—2-4 HR(13) 3 RBI
• Nick Evans—1-4 HR(6) 2 RBI
• Matt LaPorta—3-4 4 RBI BB
• Jason Donald—1-3 HR(2) RBI 4R
• Michael Brantley—2-4 3R RBI BB SB(38)
• Juan Miranda—2-4 RBI R 2B
• Desmond Jennings—2-3 2R BB SB(40) BB

Pitching:

• Fabio Castro—8 IP 4H 3 BB 4K
• Matt Maloney—6.2 IP 5H 2 ER 3 BB 9K W (8-8)

5/7 Low-A Minor League Report

Posted by Jeremy on May 8, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Yesterday was a nice day for young moundsmen in the Low-A levels.  Atlanta’s young southpaw Brett DeVall thew five shutout innings, striking out six and outdueling Houston’s young righty Jordan Lyles.  Lyles, himself, was no slouch though as he gave up one run over seven innings while striking out eight.  Red Sox prospect Bryan Price gave up one unearned run on two hits over six innings, racking up eight strikeouts, and Matt Latos looked sharp in his second outing giving up just two hits and two walks in 5.2 innings.  Offensively, catcher Tim Federowicz hit his fifth dinger and Angels offensive wrecking ball Roberto Lopez hit his first HR of the season, as did Cutter Dykstra.

Today’s top prospect is Royals former ‘06 draft and follow Nick Van Stratten.  The 23 year old outfielder was 4-6 with his first HR and seven RBI.  Van Stratten had a solid debut season with Burlington last season hitting .345 with a HR 18 RBI and 5 SB in 40 games.  Van Stratten doesn’t profile to be a major contributor at the major league level and it is puzzling as to why the Royals held him back despite his high level of success last season.

Low-A Player of the Day—NICK VAN STRATTEN

Other Notable Performances

Hitting:

• Gerardo Rodriguez—2-4 HR(6) RBI
• Jacob Kaase—1-3 HR(2) 3 RbI BB
• Chris Nash—2-3 2 2B 2R 5 RBI 2 BB
• Donnie Webb—2-4 3R 2 SB(11)
• Abner Abreu—3-5 2 2B R 4 RBI
• Tim Federowicz—2-6 HR(5) RBI 2R
• Michael Almanzar—3-6 R
• Sean Ratliff—2-6 2B 2R RBI
• David Adams—2-3 R 2 BB
• Xavier Avery—3-4 2 3B 2R SB(7)
• Joe Mahoney—2-4 2B RBI SB(8)
• Roberto Lopez—3-4 HR(1) RBI 2 2B 3R
• Reynaldo Navarro—2-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Victor Estevez—1-3 HR(1) 4 RBI 2R
• Kyle russell—1-3 HR(6) RBI BB 2R
• Jaff Decker—1-2 HR(2) RBI BB
• Nick Van Stratten—4-6 2B HR(1) 7 RBI SB(2)
• Cutter Dykstra—1-4 HR(1) 2 RBI

Pitching:

• Henderson Alvarez—9 IP 4H Er BB K W (3-3)
• Mat Latos—5.2 IP 2H 2 BB 6K W (2-0)
• Matt Fairel—6 IP 4H 3 ER 10K
• Casey Crosby—5 IP H 3 BB 7K
• Jon Michael Redding—6 IP 4H 2 BB 5K W (4-1)
• Matt Moore—4.2 IP 3H Er 3 BB 9K
• Hector Noesi—4.2 IP 2H 7K (0 runs in 20.1 IP)
• Bryan Price—6 IP 2H UER 8K
• Brett DeVall—5 IP 2H BB 6K W (1-1)
• Jordan Lyles—7 IP 7H ER 8K L (1-3)
• Tyler Cloud—8IP 6H 8K W (2-2)
• Gregory Infante—6 IP 4H ErR4 BB 7K L (2-1)

3/21 Spring Training Report

Posted by Jeremy on March 22, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

For those of you who entered the PPR Contest, never fear!  I will have the results posted later on this evening or first thing tomorrow morning.  Winners can expect an email from me soon requesting your shipping address.

As for the baseball action, yesterday offered a full slate of action and several outstanding performances.  Jay Bruce belted his 2nd HR of the spring as did Buster Posey and Kendry Morales.  Trevor Cahill continues to look like he his ready for a major league rotation spot throwing 5 innings of one run ball.  Jake Fox pounded his 4th HR of the spring and added 5 RBI as did Billy Butler, but it was Colby Rasmus’ 5 hit day that takes home today’s youngster of the day honors.

Youngster of the Day—COLBY RASMUS

Other Notable Performances:

• Michael Bowden—3 IP 3H ER BB 2K
• Junichi Tazawa—2 IP 2H 2K
• Anibal Sanchez—5.2 IP 5H 2 ER BB 2K
• Luke Hughes—2-4 RBI
• Brian Duensing—2 IP H 2K
• John Mayberry Jr.—2-4 2B SB(3)
• Jordan Schafer—1-4 R BB
• Josh Anderson—1-1 HR(2) 3 RBI
• Brandon Jones—2-4 2 RBI 2R BB
• Freddie Freeman—1-3 2B R RBI
• Jay Bruce—3-4 HR(2) 3 RBI R
• Homer Bailey—4.2 IP 4H 3 ER 2 BB 4K (L)
• Colby Rasmus—5-6 2 2B 2R 3 RBI
• David Freese—2-4 2B R
• Jason Motte—IP K SV(4)
• Jeff Larish—2-5 HR(3) 2R RBI
• Joba Chamberlain—3 IP 4H ER 5K
• Juan Miranda—1-1 HR(2) 2 RBI
• Jesus Guzman—2-4 2 RBI R
• Roger Kieschnick—1-2 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Pablo Sandoval—2-4 2B R RBI
• Emmannuel Burriss—3-5 3R RBI
• Buster Posey—1-3 HR(2) RBI
• Eugenio Velez—1-3 R SB(5)
• Trevor Cahill—5 IP 4H ER 2K
• Aaron Cunningham—2-4 2B R RBI
• Matt Tuiasosopo—2-2 2R 2 RBI
• Chris Carter (A’s)—1-1 2B R
• Kendry Morales—1-3 HR(2) RBI
• Nick Adenhart—5 IP 4H ER BB 6K
• Brad Nelson—2-4 2 2B 2 RBI
• Xavier Paul—1-1 3B R
• Matt LaPorta—3-4 2 2B 2 RBI R
• Jason McDonald—3 IP BB K
• Mitch Maier—3-6 2 2B 3R
• Billy Butler—2-6 HR(3) 2B 5 RBI 3R
• Chad Tracy (Rangers)—1-1 GS HR(1) 4 RBI
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia—2-2 R BB 2 2B
• Joe Koshansky—1-3 HR(2) RBI
• Jake Fox—3-5 HR(4) 2B 5 RBI R
• Chris Getz—2-4 RBI
• Joshua Fields—2-4 HR(2) RBI

3/4 Spring Training League Report

Posted by Jeremy on March 5, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Today marks the official beginning of the World Baseball Classic. Yesterday’s spring training games offered up some decent performances from our beloved prospects, but none that really dropped my jaw. Koji Uehara continues to impress, throwing three two-hit innings en route to a win, John Mayberry Jr. belted another HR, as did Dayan Viciedo and Justin Smoak. The youngster of the day, however, is Pablo Sandoval whose 3-3 afternoon included his second HR of the spring. Sandoval is proving that his bat is the real deal and not a one year wonder.

Youngster of the Day—PABLO SANDOVAL

Other Notable Performances:

• Andy LaRoche—1-2 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Wilson Ramos—1-2 2B RBI
• Evan Meek—IP 2K SV(3)
• Luke Montz—1-2 R BB
• Jordan Zimmerman—3 IP 0H 3K
• Jeremy Slayden—1-1 HR(2) 3 RBI
• John Mayberry Jr.—2-3 HR(2) 2 RBI
• Koji Uehara—3 IP 2H 2K (W)
• Matt Albers—2 IP 4H K
• Mike Costanzo—1-4 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Logan Morrison—2-2 2B RBI BB
• Francisco Cervelli—2-2 R SB(1)
• Scott Campbell—1-1 R RBI BB
• Travis Snider—3-3 R
• Matt Brown—3-4 2 RBI 2R
• Peter Bourjos—2-4 2R SB(2)
• Sean Rodriguez—1-2 2 RBI
• Chris Pettit—1-2 HR(2) 2 RBI
• Jay Bruce—2-3 HR(2) RBI
• Justin Upton—2-2 RBI
• Luke Hughes—2-3 2 2B 3R
• Garrett Olson—2 IP 2H 4K
• Jeff Clement—1-2 2R BB
• Richie Robnett—1-1 2R BB 2 SB(2)
• Aaron Poreda—3 IP 3H ER
• Pablo Sandoval—3-3 HR(2) RBI
• Buster Posey—2-2 R RBI
• Emmannuel Burriss—2-5 RBI R SB(1)
• Jesus Guzman—1-2 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Xavier Paul—1-2 2 RBI
• Chin-Lung Hu—2-4 R BB
• Delwyn Young—2-2 2B R RBI
• Justin Smoak—1-1 HR(1) 3 RBI
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia—1-2 2B RBI
• Derek Holland—2 IP 2H ER K
• Luke Hochevar—3 IP 2H 2K
• Beau Mills—2-4 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Michael Brantley—1-2 RBI SB(1)
• Brad Snyder—1-3 2 RBI
• Nate Spears—2-2 2R
• Dayan Viciedo—1-3 HR(2) 2 RBI
• Jordan Danks—2-4
• Yung-Chi Chen—1-1 2 RBI 3B
• Aaron Cunningham—1-3 R BB
• James Simmons—2 IP 2H 3K

PPR Mailbag

Posted by Jeremy on February 17, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | 2 Comments to Read

Hello all! I received a question from a viewer in my inbox today that I thought would be a perfect question for discussion fodder. It is italicized in bold font below:

First off I love your blog/site…keep up the great work. But a question I have for you, when you select a prospect auto card to invest in do you have a minimum amount of cards bought that you like to achieve? (i.e. 5, 10, 20)

Great question! 

Purchasing wholesale quantities of autographed prospects is a more expensive endeavor than stockpiling quantities of non-autographed base cards, as the per unit cost is considerably higher; especially if the prospect is prominantly known in the collecting circles. 

Rather than focus on numbers per say, I tend to look at a card’s value to price potential and what I like to call “proximate liquidity”.  I guess a card’s value to price potential is similar to a stock’s PE ratio.  Companies that generate a good amount of revenue compared to the price of their stock tend to be solid, more stable values.  The same can be said with a baseball card.  The value is a little more difficult to determine, however, because the market for a player’s potential is largely determined on his ability to meet the market’s expectations.  That is where effective player analysis and a good feel for the player’s developmental timeline really comes in handy.

Proximate liquidity is really a fancy way of saying “How soon can I generate my expected cash flow for this card?”  Prospects in the lower levels in the minor leagues are going to take longer to get to the big leagues than someone in AA or AAA.  While younger players often can be had for cheaper prices, the need for patience and the risk of attrition (especially in pitchers) is much greater. 

As players make their major league debuts and experience short term successes (remember Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz?), the market for their cards experiences a brief inflationary period as expectations of future prosperity abound.  Players that were once AA stat lines are now showcasing their skills on Baseball Tonight, Sportscenter or various local media outlets.  This, of course, creates a larger, less cost-savvy market that allows you to reach your projected profits more quickly.

 I do tend to buy in quantities when I have a strong hunch on a short term investment.  In 2006, I made a handsome sum off of Ryan Braun’s autos that I had been stockpiling since the late summer of ‘05.  When I purchased his stuff, I didn’t so much have a quota that I was looking to reach as much as a price that I thought would be a solid value and, just as importantly, a projected price at which I would sell the cards.

Honoring and consumating a sale at a pre-projected market price is a real discipline.  We as prospectors get into the habit of deal hunting and building our inventory with good value buys, but we often neglect the selling side of the transaction.  I made a killing on Ryan Braun RC’s in ‘06, but there have also been several times that I have held on to something beyond its value ceiling, waiting for an increase in the market price that inevitably never comes.

Hopefully this gives you a little more insight into the methods of my madness.  As I stated in a previous blog post, I will be undertaking a $100 Growth Project to put my “expertise” on the line.  I invite you all to check out that process as the year progresses.  I think we will all learn a thing or two along the way.

Do you have some buying/selling tips to share?  Perhaps a tidbit of prospecting prose to pontificate?  Share your thoughts in the comments section!

Cards From My Youth #2

Posted by Jeremy on February 13, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

1988 Donruss Gregg Jefferies

Some of you readers who are under the age of 30 years old may look at this card and go “WHO?”.  For me, however, this card (along with the other 1988 brands of Jefferies” RC’s) was a coveted centerpiece of my collection.  Jefferies burst onto the prospect scene with a remarkable 1987 season at AA Jackson by hitting .363 with 20 HR 101 RBI 26 SB and 48 doubles.  He walked more than he struck out and was the shining example of what a 5 tool prospect should be. 

I remember opening pack after pack of ‘88 products hoping to see Jefferies’ smiling mug looking back at me.  Local card shops prominantly displayed them in their showcases with prices ranging between $7-10 (roughly the amount of money I received mowing my front and back yard).  Beckett was no help.  They made him the cover boy in April of 1989 and accompanied each of his cards with the infamous black “double up” arrows. 

During my eighth grade year, I took weekly trombone lessons from a local instructor who shared my enthusiasm for baseball cards.  Prior to one of my lessons, the instructor shared with me that she had decided to purchase an entire case of 1988 Donruss Cello Pack Boxes.  There were 12 boxes in total in the case and immediately I offered my pack ripping services.  She politely refused and stated that, at just $300, she deemed it to be an investment that would help fund her retirement someday.

OUCH!

The most recent eBay auction for a case of 1988 Donruss Cello Boxes sold for a mere $62.71

What happened to Mr. Jefferies?  I remember reading in one of my Baseball Digests that he trained in the off season by swinging a weighted bat in a swimming pool to accelerate his bat speed.  I can still see the look on the local YMCA lifeguard’s face when I brought my black TPS into the pool area for some cuts.

Needless to say…the bat never got wet.

Jefferies carved out a decent career as a player hitting .289 with 126 HR 663 RBI nearly 200 SB and over 1,500 hits.  He was an All-Star in back to back seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals but the promise that he showed as a New York Met prospect never came to full fruition.

Ahh, but gazing upon the techno-savvy blue border of his ‘88 Donruss card reminds me of youthful exuberance and a trombone teacher’s painful investment.

Top 20 First Base Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 2, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | 2 Comments to Read

Hello everyone!  Sorry for the delay in getting this list out.  I have been away from the keyboard the past couple of days only to find that a vast influx of readers have stopped by to check things out.  To those of you who are new to Porter’s Prospect Report, please feel free to drop a line and say howdy.  Thank you to all for reading and I hope you enjoy this installment of the Top 20 prospects as we make our way down the 1st base line. 

As expected, this list was even more difficult to rank than the catchers, thanks in large part to a handful of 2008 draftees who all have bright futures ahead of them but not a whole lot of professional data to mull over.  Without further ado, here’s the list…

#1.) Justin Smoak—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Massive power from both sides of the plate a la Mark Teixeira.  He also has excellent plate discipline and is an above average defensive 1B.  The biggest question about Smoak is:  Why did he slip all the way to the 10th spot in the draft?

Weaknesses: He will not set any land speed records on the bases and his defensive acumen does not extend beyond 1B.

2009 Outlook: Smoak played in the Arizona Fall League briefly which indicates to me that he will start his season with High-A Bakersfield in the California League.  Given that tasty tidbit of info, it is quite likely that he will put up some gaudy numbers and a trip to AA Frisco on the Texas Ranger fast track is, by no means, out of the question.

2.) Lars Anderson—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lars is a polished hitter with a tall, powerful frame that will develop more power as he matures.  He drives just about everything that he swings at and utilizes top notch plate discipline to boot.  Defensively, Anderson is a whiz with the potential to earn Gold Gloves in future seasons.

Weaknesses: Much like Smoak, Anderson is not a particularly quick baserunner and his defensive abilities are limited to first base.

2009 Outlook: The Red Sox are pretty well set with Youkilis manning the controls for the next couple of seasons and Mike Lowell and David Ortiz signed through 2010.  That should keep Anderson at AAA for the entire season with, perhaps a September cameo possible this season.  Lars is too good to keep down for long and the Red Sox may decide to get creative this off season to prepare room for their #1 overall prospect.

3.) Logan Morrison—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Like Smoak and Anderson, Morrison employs a lethal combination of power, batting average and plate discipline to make him one of the league’s up an coming sluggers.  His numbers in the Arizona Fall League (.404 5 HR 29 RBI) shows that his ‘08 dip in power may be an aberration.

Weaknesses: He is an average fielder at 1B, and his boost in batting average in ‘08 came at the expense of some of his power.  While he has the potential to hit for both, there is an ever so slight uncertainty that it will happen.

2009 Overview: AA should provide a good bearing on Logan’s projectible future.  If his AFL contributions are any indicator, Gaby Sanchez’s reign as the Marlins’ starting 1B will be a very short one.

4.) Yonder Alonso—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A solid high average bat that should produce at least 20-25 HR power in the major leagues.  His plate discipline and patience may be the best from any prospect in the ‘08 draft class as well.

Weaknesses: He is a fringe average defensive 1B who has virtually no shot at playing any other positions.  He has a pudgy frame that could add unwanted, performance detracting weight in future seasons.

2009 Overview: Alonso’s polish and sterling performance in the Hawaiian Winter League should allow him to jump directly to AA Carolina for the beginning of the ‘09 season.  The Reds are well set with Joey Votto performing the every day duties at 1B, but Alonso’s bat will not wait long in the Reds’ farm system.  Votto has the ability to play LF, though, and it seems reasonable that he could move there to make room for Yonder by 2010.

5.) Freddie Freeman—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Freeman has just scratched the surface of what his towering and powerful frame can produce.  He shows an incredible aptitude for driving in runs and driving the ball to all fields and scouts say that the ball sounds different coming off of his bat.  Defensively, Freeman has good instincts around the bag and a strong arm as well.

Weaknesses: His 6-5 220 lb. frame has the potential to build quite a bit more bulk, which should cut into his athleticism even further.  He will also have to increase his walk totals as he progresses.

2009 Outlook: The Braves should send Freeman to High-A Myrtle Beach to team with OF prospects Jason Heyward.  Freeman will be just 19 this season and his potential to be an elite power hitter could boost him to the top of this list in the next season or two.

6.) Kyle Blanks—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Blanks is a hitting machine, lacing line drives to the gaps and piling up RBI’s in bunches.  He has solid plate discipline and his nimble feet around 1B belies his behemoth-like frame.

Weaknesses: His 6-6 270 lb. frame has some softness and could be an injury culpability over time.  Despite his size, Blanks doesn’t drive balls for power to the opposite field much.  This could just be an approach thing that could be rectified with more work.  Also, his defensive skill set doesn’t extend beyond the first base bag, which siginificantly limits his opportunities with San Diego.

2009 Outlook: The Padres already have a pretty good 1B in Adrian Gonzalez which means that Blanks should get a heavy dose of AAA pitching this season.  Gonzo’s contract extends through 2011 and the price tag is quite low.  This makes Blanks a prime candidate for a change of scenery as a high-value trading chip within the next season or two.

7.) Eric Hosmer—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Prime time power potential and the ability to hit for a high average.  Hosmer was the most polished prep hitter of the ‘08 draft.  His defense has also drawn rave reviews as his range, arm strength, and soft hands are all well above average.

Weaknesses: Not enough data at the major league level.  His plate disicpline at a pro level and power output will be monitored closely.  Like many big hitters, Hosmer’s long arms can make him more culpable to being jammed by pitches up and in.

2009 Outlook: The Royals are flush with 1B prospects througout their system, but Hosmer is far and away the best of the bunch.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hosmer get a shot at full season Low-A Burlington come April.

8.) David Cooper—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Has the potential to be a future batting champion.  Cooper hits frozen ropes from foul line to foul line with the potential to hit 25-30 HR per season. 

Weaknesses: He is not an exceptional defensive player and has below average speed.

2009 Outlook: After playing at three levels last season, it is quite apparent that Cooper is on a fast track to Toronto.  The Blue Jays have current 1B Lyle Overbay signed through the 2010 season, which should provide Cooper with ample time to put the finishing touches on his development.  He should spend most of the season at AA New Hampshire but a promotion to AAA Syracuse and, perhaps, a September audition in Rogers Centre could also be in the cards.

9.) Kila Ka’aihue—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Ka’aihue’s ‘08 season was remarkable in every way.  Eye popping power production, a .300+ batting average and more than 100 walks made him a pitcher’s nightmare at multiple levels. 

Weaknesses: His incredible ‘08 season represents a huge spike over the production from the previous four years worth of statistics.  Has he taken a step forward in development or is this a one year aberration?  His defense at 1B is only so-so and he may profile better as a DH.

2009 Outlook: No one was more disappointed with the Royals’ trade for Mike Jacobs than Kila Ka’aihue.  This development ensures that the Hawaiian slugger will either be mired in a part time 1B/DH gig with K.C. or, more likely, will head to AAA Omaha to demonstrate that he can re-enact his numbers from last season.

10.) Chris Carter—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Chris Carter may just be the king of the HR hitters on this power-packed list.  Even more scary is the fact that his 39 HR from ‘08 may be peanuts compared to what he could produce once his 6-4 210 lb. frame fills out a bit more.  Carter has shown a willingness to draw walks and his 32 doubles hit shows a willingness to be a more complete hitter.

Weaknesses: Carter strikes out…a lot. His mediocre batting average in the California League infers that his all or nothing approach could be exploited at higher levels.  The A’s have also struggled to find a defensive home for Carter, as he has spent time at 1B, 3B, and in the OF with ho-hum results. 

2009 Outlook: Carter will take his big bat to AA Midland to prove that the friendly skies of Stockton did not influence his HR totals.  While his power is prestigious, Carter has several wrinkles in his game that still need to be ironed out over the next couple of seasons.

11.) Angel Villalona—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Off the charts power projectibility.  Villalona has the ideal frame and swing to be a league-leading HR hitter.  He is agile for his size and should be a solid fielder akin to the former All-Star 1B Andres Galarraga.  Villalona is described by many within the Giants’ organization as being a humble, likeable person with a good work ethic.

Weaknesses: 18 BB vs. 118 K’s.  Villalona is an overly aggressive hitter who has rudimentry pitch recognition.  His strapping body has some baby fat on it which, if not trimmed down, could have detrimental effects on his athletic abilities.

2009 Outlook: Villalona improved as the season progressed which should earn him a promotion to High-A San Jose.  If he struggles though, he may head back to Augusta for more refining.  At just 18 years old, the sky is the limit for Angel.

12.) Sean Doolittle—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Doolittle is a polished hitter with promising gap power with an athletic and projectible 6-3 190 lb. frame.  He his has the ability to play 1B at a Gold Glove level, but his range and arm strength also makes him a viable outfielder as well.

Weaknesses: Sean’s strikeout totals (154 in 135 games) were uncharacteristically high, perhaps due to the fact that he made a more concerted effort to increase his power numbers. 

2009 Outlook: Doolittle’s solid showing in the Arizona Fall League (.293 8 HR 26 RBI) may earn him a promotion to AAA Sacramento for the start of the ‘09 season.  It is quite difficult to figure out where the former Virginia Cavalier will play in Oakland as the roster is already overflowing with OF’s and 1B.  Things should really open up for Doolittle in 2010 as Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi will be gone and the Daric Barton era at 1B will likely come to an end.

13.) Beau Mills—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths:  Mills offers a comprehensive package of average and power potential.  His 6-3 220 lb. frame is strong and durable.  Beau has good MLB bloodlines as his dad Brad Mills is a former MLB player and the Boston Red Sox bench coach.  His makeup and leadership skills have been lauded by the Indians’ organization.

Weaknesses: Like many 1B prospects, Mills is limited athletically and has slow footspeed.  He was a poor fielding 3B in college and his defensive potential as a 1B has yet to be determined. 

2009 Outlook: Mills showed good offensive numbers in a pitching friendly environment last season.  He moves to AA Akron to hopefully build on his promising power numbers.  The Indians will have some interesting decisions to make within the next couple of seasons as several promising power hitters like Matt LaPorta, Wes Hodges, and Nick Weglarz are all players whose defensive deficiencies in other areas may relegate them to becoming inadvertent competitors with MIlls at 1B.

14.) Brandon Allen—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths:  Built like an NFL linebacker, Allen may be the most complete athlete on this list.  His power-packed bat has the potential to hit 30+ HR per season and he should also be able to produce 10-15 SB per year as well.  Allen nearly doubled his walk totals and his increased power did not have a negative effect on his K rate.

Weaknesses: Allen is still trying to figure things out defensively.  He has oscillated between the outfield and first base, but has yet to truly master either position.  His strikeout totals are still a bit too high and he will never contend for a batting average title.

2009 Outlook: Allen handled the challenges of AA ball exceedingly well, but there is no real need for the White Sox to rush him along yet.  Paul Konerko is signed through 2010, though it seems probable that Chicago will try to move him before then.  Allen needs to tune up his hands and footwork , and AA seems to be the best place to do it.  If he continues to mash, a promotion to AAA should happen at some point in ‘09.  Allen is just 23 years old and his future in the launching pad known as “The Cell” is quite promising.

15.) Brandon Snyder—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Snyder’s second half performance and his stint in the Arizona Fall League makes him a prime time breakout candidate for 2009.  Brandon has the potential to be a .300+ hitter with good power to the alleys.  His defense at 1B should be much better than it was as a catcher or third baseman too.

Weaknesses: Plate discipline still needs refining.  Snyder has a tendency to be overly aggressive and streaky at times.  He also has a stocky build that could add athletically inhibitive pounds as he ages.

2009 Outlook: AA Bowie will be a good test for Snyder.  The Eastern League, especially early in the season, can be tough on young hitters and their power numbers.  If he continues his torrid pace, Brandon’s stock could rise significantly.  The Orioles were hot bidders in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, which indicates their desire to add a big time bat to their infield.  Snyder has an opportunity this season to make the O’s believe that he can fill that void.

16.) Chris Marrero—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Limitless power projectibility and a sweet right-handed swing that can potentially hit for a high batting average.  Unlike many young power hitters, Marrero has a good feel for the strike zone and doesn’t rack up big strikeout totals.

Weaknesses: Injuries cut his 2008 season to just 70 games.  His 6-3 210 lb. frame is not overly athletic and it has been difficult for him to find a defensive home. 

2009 Outlook: Marrero has reportedly worked hard this offseason to get himself into tip-top shape for the ‘09 season.  Expect him to start at High-A Potomac again to shake the rust off.  If all goes well, he could find himself back on Washington’s fast track and his status on this list could rise significantly.

17.) Gaby Sanchez—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Sanchez is a line drive hitter with average power and very good plate discipline.  He has put a great deal of effort into sculpting his body and increasing his athleticism.  Unlike most 1B prospects, Sanchez is not a liability on the basepaths.  In fact he has the potential to accrue double-digit SB numbers at the major league level. 

Weaknesses:  Gaby is an older prospect who has maxed out physically and likely will not develop above average power numbers.  Additionally, Sanchez appears to be a victim of circumstance as the highly touted Logan Morrison is knocking on the door to his major league career.

2009 Outlook: Sanchez has a good shot at winning the opening day nod for the Marlins in ‘09.  While he doesn’t hit for as much power as recently departed Mike Jacobs, his blend of batting average and plate discipline should be welcome additions to this power-packed lineup.

18.) Allan Dykstra—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: At 6-5 220 lb., Dykstra is the prototypical statuesque power hitting lefty with a decent glove and advanced plate discipline.

Weaknesses: In the same vein of protypical 1B, Dykstra is athletically limited and a liability on the basepaths.  On a list of top-tier corner infielders, Dykstra is a solid but unspectacular talent.

2009 Overview: Dykstra is a few levels behind top prospect Kyle Blanks, which allows the Padres time to bring him along at a leisurely pace and to further decide what to do about their depth at 1B.  The Wake Forest alum is a few years away from his major league debut and, by that time, we will have a much better bearing on what can be expected from him in his major league career.

19.) Mark Trumbo—L.A. Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Trumbo has a classic power hitter’s swing that generates a high percentage of long flyballs.  He has put in great efforts to increase his strength and agility and the dividends are apparently paying off.

Weaknesses: The bulk of Trumbo’s numbers were accrued at Rancho Cucamonga, which has a history of inflating offensive performances (remember Brandon Wood’s 2005 season?).  Mark will be hard pressed to replicate those numbers at higher levels as his athleticism could limit him.  Additionally, his 33 BB/96 K ratio is less than desirable for someone of his power potential.

2009 Outlook: Kendry Morales is finally getting his shot at the starting gig in L.A.  His performance will dictate the pace at which Trumbo is promoted this coming season.  It is quite possible that Mark will start the ‘09 season back at Arkansas in hopes that he regains the power stroke that betrayed him in the AFL (1 HR in 154 AB).  Conventional wisdom should show that he is not quite as good as his Rancho Cucamonga numbers indicated.

20.) Mike Carp—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Superb plate discipline and a line drive bat that hits line drives to all fields.  Carp has a good work ethic and showed resilience by bouncing back from a bad 2007 season.

Weaknesses: Carp’s power potential is significantly less than the other prospects on this list.  He is not a particularly good defensive player and he still struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  Put that all together and you have a platooning DH. 

2009 Outlook: The Mariners are, to say the least, a team in transition.  The assortment of 1B currently on the M’s roster is far from formidable.  Carp will start the season at AAA Tacoma, but there is a realistic shot that he will earn a call up at some point.  At just 22 years old, Carp could still develop into a Lyle Overbay-type player.

Others to consider: Brandon Laird, Anthony Rizzo, Ike Davis, Juan Miranda, Kala Ka’aihue, Joe Koshansky, Chris Parmelee, Michael Durant

Next up are the 2nd basemen, I should have them up within the next 48 HRs.  Enjoy!

New Prospecting Website *Hot-Prospects.net*

Posted by Jeremy on December 18, 2008 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Thank you to all of you who have been checking out my blog on a regular basis.  Some of you I have met via email or phone and in every circumstance, it has been a delight.  For those of you that have yet to drop me a line and say hello….what are you waiting for? 

Some of you may have noticed that the amount of posts have decreased somewhat recently.  I assure you that this is not reflective of a decline in dedication to this blog or a lack of new material.  Rather, I have been working dilligently with a good friend of mine, Mike Smeth of the Cardboard Connection, in creating a new prospecting site called Hot-Prospects.net.

The main goal of this site is to create a comprehensive database of MLB prospects that have 1st year cards available on the market.  Each prospect profile features a brief scouting report, projection for 2009, and a list of some of their more significant cards.  In just over a month, we have created about 125 profiles and are adding 3-5 more on a daily basis.  During the season, Hot-Prospects will be providing regular updates and statistical data from the top performers. 

Check it out and let me know what you think.  As always, your suggestions and comments are valued and appreciated!