10/28 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 29, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Read the First Comment

Yesterday’s games saw Atlanta Braves 1B prospect Freddie Freeman continue his hot streak with three more hits.  Oakland A’s prospects Corey Brown and Jemile Weeks had nice outings as Brown rapped three more RBI’s and Weeks doubled twice and drove in two runs.  San Diego Padres prospect Lance Zawadzki put a black mark on Aaron Crow’s professional debut by taking him deep, though Crow looked pretty sharp allowing just two runs on three hits in his four innings. 

In Mesa, Andrew Cashner logged four no-hit innings, walking two and striking out four for his first win of the season.  Boston Red Sox SS/P prospect Casey Kelly had his best day with the bat, doubling, tripling and driving in four runs.

Today’s top prospect is the hands down best player in Arizona this fall, Grant Desme.  The A’s slugger remarkably tallied two more HR’s to raise his league leading total to 10.  Desme is now just four behind Brandon Wood’s AFL record and his .469 BA and 22 RBI leads the league right now.  Desme quietly had a big season for the A’s at Low-A Kane County and High-A Stockton, hitting .288 with 31 HR 89 RBI 40 SB and 98 runs scored.  Desme’s biggest culpability right now is his contact issues as he struck out 148 time in 131 games.  To date, Desme has fanned 14 times in 12 games, but his eight walks and 23 hits in that span makes his aggressive approach at the plate tolerable, if not encouraging.  Desme doesn’t have any first year cards right now, but when they do arrive (‘09 Bowman Draft?) they should command a solid market right out of the gate. 

AFL Player of the Day—GRANT DESME

Other Notable AFL Performances:

  Mesa Solar Sox 12

• Bryan Petersen—2-5 HR(2) 2 RBI 2R
• Starlin Castro—2-5 RBI 2R
• Hank Conger—2-4 2B R RBI BB
• David Cooper—2-4 RBI R
• Casey Kelly—2-4 2B 3B 4 RBI R BB
• Josh Vitters—2-5 RBI R
• Andrew Cashner—4 IP 0H 2 BB 4K  W (1-2)

  Scottsdale Scorpions 5

• Brandon Crawford—2-4 HR(1) RBI
• William Susdorf—1-2 HR(2) 2 RBI 2  BB
• Buster Posey—1-3 2R BB

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 11

• Grant Desme—3-4 2 HR(1) 4 RBI 4R BB
• Brandon Waring—3-5 3B RBI 2R
• Corey Brown—2-5 3 RBI
• Jemile Weeks—3-3 2 2B 2 RBI R

  Peoria Javelinas 6

• Trayvon Robinson—2-5 RBI R
• Casper Wells—1-4 HR(3) 3 RBI
• Justin Sellers—3-4 2B R
• Jordan Danks—1-3 R RBI BB

  Peoria Saguaros 9

• Lance Zawadzki—2-4 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R BB
• Jon Gaston—1-5 3B R 2 RBI
• Yonder Alonso—2-4 2R 2 RBI
• Freddie Freeman—3-4 2B R RBI BB
• Brandon Hicks—2-4 3B RBI BB
• Steven Garrison—3 IP 3H 2 BB K W (1-1)

  Surprise Rafters 0

• Reese Havens—2-4
• Aaron Crow—4 IP 3H 2 ER BB 2K L (0-1)

10/27 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

Back to the keyboard to provide some more AFL updates.  Tuesday’s games saw Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Jose Tabata have his best game as at the plate, going 3-6 with his first HR and six RBI.  Tigers SS prospect Cale Iorg logged his first dinger as well, driving in three and scoring three times.  Freddie Freeman went yard and looks to be emerging from an early season slump. 

In Phoenix, the Oakland A’s OF tandem of Corey Brown and Grant Desme are providing ample evidence that the A’s’ present offensive woes may become a thing of the past.  Desme is currently leading the league with eight dingers and, though he didn’t add to that total Tuesday, he did drive in two runs and score three times.  Brown, an Oklahoma State alum, also had three RBI on the strength of his fourth HR of the season.  Both Brown and Desme are highly athletic players who have the ability to hit 30 HR per season at the major league level.

Tuesday’s top star, however, is household name Stephen Strasburg.   The Nationals’ franchise player bounced back big time from his lousy outing last week by tossing 4.1 innings of one-hit, one run ball walking one and striking out five for his second win of the season.  Despite the poor outing last week, Strasburg’s various 2008 and 2009 cards remain white hot commodities on the eBay trading floor.  A couple more outings like this will only amply that market.

AFL Player of the Day—STEPHEN STRASBURG

Other Notable AFL Performances:

  Peoria Saguaros 6

• Freddie Freeman—2-4 HR(1) RBI 2R
• Matt McBride—1-4 HR(2) 3 RBI
• Cedric Hunter—2-3 3 RBI
• Zack Cozart—2-4 2B 2R SB(2)

  Mesa Solar Sox 5

• Chris Parmelee—2-5 2 2B 2 RBI
• Luis Exposito—2-3 2B RBI BB
• Greg Burns—2-4 R
• Rene Tosoni—1-4 2R RBI BB

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 7

• David Espinosa—2-4 2B R
• Grant Desme—1-2 2B 3R 2 RBI 2 BB
• Corey Brown—2-4 HR(4) 3 RBI 2B SB(1)
• Brad Emaus—2-3 2 RBI BB SB(2)
• Steven Strasburg—4.1 IP H ER 2 BB 5K W (2-1)

  Surprise Rafters 6

• Jeff Bianchi—2-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 2R
• Mitch Moreland—2-4 2B RBI BB
• Marcus Lemon—2-4 3B 2R RBI

  Peoria Javelinas 10

• Jordan Danks—2-3 3R RBI 2 BB
• Cale Iorg—3-5 HR(1) RBI 3R SB(3)
• Russ Mitchell—1-4 3 RBI
• Dustin Ackley—1-4 2R BB

  Scottsdale Scorpions 9

• Jose Tabata—3-6 2B HR(1) 6 RBI
• Domonic Brown—2-5
• Cole Gillespie—3-5 2B R
• Brandon Crawford—1-2 3R RBI 2 BB
• Scott Mathieson—1.2 IP H BB 3K

10/22 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 23, 2009 under Market Watch | Be the First to Comment

Stephen Strasburg’s second outing went much differently than his first as three Peoria Javelinas took him deep and he was touched up for eight runs in his 2.2 innings of work.  Talented as Strasburg is, he is not immune from the steep learning curve that major league baseball imposes on virtually every young hurler.  In other action, Oakland A’s OF prospect Grant Desme continues his power onslaught, hitting his 6th dinger and fellow outfield mate Corey Brown chimed in with his 3rd.  Mike Stanton racked up three more hits, as did Cole Gillespie, Pedro Ciriaco, and Chris Marrero.

Today’s top prospect is Detroit Tigers OF prospect Casper Wells.  Yesterday’s grand slame off of Strasburg proved to be the punctuation point on the #1 overall pick’s outing yesterday.  The former 14th rounder out of Towson University had a fair, but not spectacular year at AA Erie, hitting .260 with 15 HR and 41 RBI.  He’s bunched up with a glut of low to mid upside outfielders within the system and is in dire need of a standout AFL showing to elevate his status within the organization.  So far so good.  Wells currently hitting at a .476 clip with 2 HR 11 RBI.  If he can continue his torrid pace, the organization may be more apt to give more credence to his ‘08 numbers (.269 27 HR 79 RBI 25 SB) as to their expectations of Wells going forward.

AFL Player of the Day—CASPER WELLS

Other Notable AFL Peformances:

  Peoria Javelinas 9

• Casper Wells—2-5 HR(2) 5 RBI BB
• Russ Mitchell—1-4 HR(4) 2 RBI
• C.J. Retherford—2-4 HR(1) RBI 2R
• Jordan Danks—2-4 2R
• Taylor Green—1-2 R 2 BB

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 6

• Chris Marrero—3-5 2B HR(2) 2 RBI 2R
• Grant Desme—1-4 HR(6) 2 RBI
• Corey Brown—3-5 HR(3) RBI 3B

  Surprise Rafters 3

• Mitch Moreland—2-4 HR(2) RBI 2R
• Ike Davis—1-3 2B BB
• Blake Wood—3 IP 4H BB 2K
• Tanner Scheppers—2 IP 2K

  Peoria Saguaros 2

• Matt McBride—1-3 HR(1) 2 RBI BB
• Lance Zawadzki—2-3 2 BB
• Josh Judy—1.2 IP BB 4K

  Scottsdale Scorpions 11

• Cole Gillespie—3-5 2B 2R BB SB(2)
• Brandon Allen—2-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 2B
• Thomas Neal—2-5 2B 2R
• Darin Holcomb—2-4 3R BB
• Pedro Ciriaco—3-6 2B
• Domonic Brown—2-4 2B 2R 2 RBI
• Hector Gomez—2-5 2 RBI
• Brian Friday—2-5 2B R RBI

  Mesa Solar Sox 1

• Rene Tosoni—2-4 R 3B
• Mike Stanton—3-4
• Andrew Cashner—3.2 IP 3H Er K L (0-2)

10/21 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 22, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

I was looking through some of my past posts and saw that the scoreboard section of each entry is a little mushed together, making it difficult to discern the final scores of each game.  I will try to do better going forward.

As for tonight’s action, the Phoenix Desert Dogs put up 17 runs tonight to provide us with a wealth of offensive performances to choose from.  Grant Desme blasted two more homeruns to up his league leading total to five and Josh Bell increased his league leading batting average to .600 on the strenght of a four hit day that included his first AFL dinger, a double and three RBI.  In other games, Jordan Danks went yard for the second consecutive day, Yonder Alonso and Colin Curtis hit their second HR’s of the fall and Daryl Jones homered, scored twice, walked three times and stole two more bases to increase his total to six on the young season.

We go back to the Desert Dogs for our top performer of the day.  Baltimore Orioles 1B prospect and former 1st round pick Brandon Snyder belted HR’s number 2 and 3 earlier today, driving in seven runs and scoring three times.  Those of you who have followed this blog for some time have heard me on several occasions laud the offensive potential of the 23 year old power hitter.  Snyder’s ‘09 campaign got off to a rousing start as he batted .343 with 10 HR 45 RBI and 19 doubles in just 54 games at AA Bowie.  A promotion to AAA Norfolk saw him struggle to maintain his batting average and power numbers (.248 2 HR 43 RBI 18 doubles in 73 games).   The cool down performance at Norfolk diminished the market for his cards somewhat, making his various autos in 2005 Rookie Cup and various 2006 Bowman products nice bargain basement buys at $5-10 each. 

The Orioles have some decisions to make in the off season as the club has clearly opted to shift to a more youth oriented lineup.  Emerging stars like Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and a plethora of pitching talent make Baltimore an exciting up and coming A.L. East powerhouse that could contend with the other beasts in the east within the next two to three seasons.  Snyder’s torrid start to the ‘09 AFL season (.481 3 HR 12 RBI 10 runs) should increase the Orioles’ confidence in making him the front runner for the position in 2010.  Former Indians prospect Michael Aubrey should factor into the competition as well, but Snyder’s power upside and youth gives him a decided upper hand.  As much as I like Snyder, I do think he will struggle some in his first couple of months in a major league lineup.  He has a history of starting slowly at new levels before taking off and putting up better numbers.  Regardless, he’s a future 20-25 HR hitter who could drive in close to 100 runs in the middle of a young and talented Baltimore Orioles lineup.  Once that happens, the days of $5 Bowman Chrome and Sterling autos will be a thing of the distant past.

AFL Player of the Day—BRANDON SNYDER

Other Notable AFL Performances:

  Mesa Solar Sox 5

• Josh Vitters—3-5 2B R 2 RBI
• Bryan Petersen—2-5 2B R RBI
• Wellington Castillo—3-4 BB
• Greg Burns—1-2 3B R RBI 2 BB
• Tommy Mendoza—4 IP 3H ER 3K W (1-1)

  Scottsdale Scorpions 4

• Buster Posey—2-4 2B 2 RBI R
• Thomas Neal—1-4 R SB(3)

  Surprise Rafters 10

• Colin Curtis—3-5 HR(2) 2 RBI 2R 3B
• Mitch Moreland—1-5 HR(1) 2 RBI 2R
• Ike Davis—3-4 2B 2 RBI BB
• Trey Henley—2-4 2B 2r HR(1) 3 RBI BB
• Bryan Anderson—2-4 3B 2 RbI
• Daryl Jones—1-1 2R HR(1) RBI 3 BB 2 SB(6)
• Carlos Gutierrez—3.2 IP 2H 2 BB K W(2-0)

  Peoria Saguaros 9

• Chris Heisey—4-5 2 2B 3B 2R 2 RBI
• Lance Zawardzki—2-5 3B 2R RBI
• Yonder Alonso—1-4 HR(2) 3 RBI
• Josh Rodriguez—1-3 HR(1) RBI SB(1)
• Jon Gaston—2-4 3B R

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 17

• Brandon Snyder—4-5 2 HR(3) 7 RBI 2B 3R SB(1)
• Grant Desme—2-3 2 HR(5) 3 RBI
• Josh Bell—4-5 HR(1) 3 RBI 2R 2B
• Corey Brown—1-4 HR(1) RBI BB
• Matt Angle—3-5 2R RBI BB
• Jemile Weeks—1-5 3R RBI BB SB(2)

  Peoria Javelinas 4

• Russ Mitchell—3-3 2B 2R RBI
• Jordan Danks—1-4 HR(2) RBI
• C.J. Retherford—2-4 2 RBI

10/19 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 20, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | 2 Comments to Read

Domonic Brown hit his second HR of the season while the potent middle of Phoenix’s lineup (Josh Bell, Brandon Snyder, and Grant Desme) continue to punish the ball with multi hit games.  Brandon Erbe looked good in his AFL debut (2 IP 2K) and Reds OF prospect Chris Heisey hit his second HR.

Today’s top prospect is red hot Detroit Tigers 2B prospect Scott Sizemore.  Already three HR’s into his season, Sizemore logged in with a 3-4 day at the plate with two doubles and four RBI.  Sizemore now has a league leading 9 RBI and is hitting .375 through his first four games.  The 24 year old infielder had a breakout season splitting time between AA Erie and AAA Toledo, hitting .308 with 17 HR 66 RBI 21 SB 88 runs and 39 doubles.  Sizemore’s AFL season should factor greatly in shaping Detroit’s offseason plans when it comes to re-signing free agent Placido Polonco.   Sizemore’s ability to step into the role would allow the Tigers to save $5-6 next season to allocate to other need areas.  Sizemore has only one rookie card, an autograph in the 2007 Bowman Heritage set, to date.  His hot start in the AFL has garnered some attention for the card as it currently sits at $7-9 and is only intermittently listed on eBay at this time.

AFL Player of the Day—SCOTT SIZEMORE

Other AFL Performances:

  Scottsdale Scorpions 7

• Pedro Ciriaco Jr.—2-5 2B R RBI
• Domonic Brown—2-5 HR(2) RBI
• Brandon Allen—2-5 2B 2 RBI
• Thomas Neal—1-2 2B R 2 RBI 2 BB SB(2)
• Joe Martinez—3 IP 3H ER BB 3K W (1-0)

  Surprise Rafters 3

• Ruben Tejada—2-4 2 2B
• MItch Moreland—2-4 2B R
• Jeff Bianchi—2-4 BB

  Peoria Javelinas 8

• Scott Sizemore—3-4 2 2B R 4 RBI
• Dayan Viciedo—1-5 2 RBI
• Jordan Danks—1-1 HR(1) RBI BB
• Lorenzo Cain—0-3 3R 2 BB SB(2)
• Scot Drucker—3 IP 3H K W (1-0)

  Mesa Solar Sox 1

• Chris Parmelee—3-4 2 2B R
• Ryan Kalish—2-4 RBI

  Phoenix Desert Dogs  6

• Josh Bell—4-5 2B 3B 3R RBI
• Grant Desme—3-5 2B R
• Brandon Snyder—2-5 2B R
• Adam Loewen—1-4 HR(1) 3 RBI BB
• Brandon Erbe—2 IP 2K
• Mickey Storey—2 IP H 4K
• Drew Storen—IP H 2K

  Peoria Saguaros  2

• Nick Weglarz—3-4 2B
• Jason Castro—1-3 R BB
• Chris Heisey—1-4 HR(2) RBI

10/14 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on October 15, 2009 under Minor League Ball today | 2 Comments to Read

Yesterday’s league action did not conjure the offensive fireworks that Tuesday’s action did, but there were a few fine performances to note.  Dustin Ackley had two hits in his first action as a pro, scoring once.  Ike Davis added two more RBI to up his league leading total to 8.  Trayvon Robinson tripled, scored and drove in a run, walking twice and stealing two bases. Domonic Brown doubled twice and drove in a run while new Arizona Diamondbacks OF prospect Cole Gillespie went 3-3 with two walks and a stolen base.

Today’s top award goes to unheralded Florida Marlins OF prospect Bryan Petersen, who collected three hits including his first AFL HR and two doubles.  Petersen’s numbers, on the surface, were solid but not standout (.297 7 HR 49 RBI 13 SB 64 runs in 121 games).  Oddly, areas that he excelled in in 2008 (23 HR 23 SB) diminished somewhat this past season, but his plate discipline (50 BB/66 K) and batting average experienced significant improvements.  All told, Petersen is a 23 year old player with a limited upside and enough athleticism and polish to be a solid contributor to a franchise.  The Marlins, however, are a team that is flush with more talented OF’s which could relegate Petersen to an eventual 4th outfielder role with the club.  He also remains someone who could draw some interest by other clubs as an inclusion in a trade, though the Marlins tend to be an organization that trades for prospects instead of shipping them out.  Until the situation changes, Petersen’s 2008 autos should continue to languish in the $3-5 range.

AFL Player of the Day—BRYAN PETERSEN

Other League Action:

  Phoenix Desert Dogs 4

• Jemile Weeks—2-5 2B R RBI SB(1)
• Chris Marrero—2-4 2B RBI BB
• Brandon Waring—1-5 HR(1) RBI

 Mesa Solar Sox 2

• Bryan Petersen—3-5 HR(1) RBI 2 2B
• Josh Vitters—3-4 2B
• Michael Stanton—2-4 SB(2)
• David Cooper—1-4 2B RBI
• Mike McCardell—2 IP H 4K

  Scottsdale Scorpions 3

• Domonic Brown—2-5 2 2B RBI
• Cole Gillespie—3-3 RBI 2 BB SB(1)
• Donald Veal—2 IP 3K

  Peoria Saguaros 1

• Jason Heyward—1-4 2B R
• Matt McBride—2-3 3B RBI BB
• Josh Rodriguez—2-4 2B

  Surprise Rafters 6

• Ruben Tejeda—2-5 2R RBI
• Mike Moustakas—1-4 2B R RBI
• Austin Romine—3-4 RBI
• Ike Davis—1-3 2 RBI
• Trey Henley—2-3 RBI R BB

  Peoria Javelinas  4

• Trayvon Robinson—1-3 3R R RBI 2 BB 2 SB(2)
• C.J. Retherford—1-4 3B RBI R
• Taylor Green—1-2 2 BB
• Dustin Ackley—2-4 R

$100 Growth Project Update–A Large Lot Purchase

Posted by Jeremy on October 14, 2009 under $100 Growth Project | 4 Comments to Read

Remember this undertaking?  For those of you who don’t or are new readers to the blog, I decided to take $100 of my hard earned dollars and invest them in various purchases and sales to see just how much I could net over one year’s time. 

At my last count, I had banked $158.46 and had a 2007 Bowman Chrome Chris Coghlan Blue Refractor Auto RC in my inventory.  The Coghlan auto, on the heels of his NL ROY performance has sold for $50 on a “BUY IT NOW” in my eBay store, netting me $43.42, or $13.42 profit. 

I was spot on with my analysis of Coghlan as a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia.  In fact, the Marlins’ rookie exceeded the ‘08 AL MVP’s numbers despite being in the minor leagues for the first month and a half of the season.  Given this, I think I undersold on the Coghlan card and would not be surprised to see this push past the $100 range following his christening as the 2009 NL ROY.  That said, my initial goal when purchasing this card was to sell at $50 and I did accomplish that.

That brings the total earnings to $201.88, or more than 100% profit over the initial investment.  Not bad considering my passive attention to the project. 

The Purchase…

Immediately following the sale, I won an auction for a mega sized 350 count lot of 2007 Bowman Draft Michael Taylor RC’s.  Shipped, the total cost for the lot was $95.55 or a mere 27 cents per card.  I immediately put the entire lot of them into my eBay store at the price of $1.00 each.  Given Taylor’s potential to earn a spot on the Phillies’ roster next season and long term prospects as a future star, I figure that the ‘07 RC’s will be spectacular low end buys this coming spring.  I received the lot yesterday, and to my pleasant surprise found that the seller had included an additional 15 Taylor RC’s upping the total to 365.

Current Cash On Hand: $106.33

Current Inventory: (365) 2007 Bowman Draft MICHAEL TAYLOR RC’s

Was this a good purchase?  Was it not?  Make your voice heard in the comments section below.  Stay tuned for more purchases and sales in the $100 Growth Project and for more quality prospect analysis!

10/13 Arizona Fall League Report

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

The 2009 Arizona Fall League season kicked off in grand fashion yesterday with several fine offensive performances.  Homeruns by Phillies top prospect Domomic Brown, Baltimore’s Brandon Snyder, Washington’s Chris Marrero, and Minnesota’s Rene Tosoni helped to fuel fine offensive outputs for their clubs but today’s top performance came from NY Mets 1B prospect and former 1st round selection Ike Davis.  The 6-5 son of former Minnesota Twins pitcher Ron Davis went 4-6 yesterday with his first Hr, six RBI and two doubles to pace the Surprise Rafters 17 run output against the Peoria Javelinas.

Davis had a big time bounce back over two levels in his first full professional season, hitting .298 with 20 HR 71 RBI and 31 doubles.  With Carlos Delgado’s time with the organization at a likely close, the focus for the next Mets 1B may turn to within the organization.  A short term salve may be Nick Evans but Davis’ long term potential is considerably better than Evans and current Rafter teammate Lucas Duda.  If Davis continues to tear the cover off of the ball this fall, thinks could get real interesting at that spot this coming spring.

AFL Player of the Day—IKE DAVIS

Other AFL Performances:

  Mesa Solar Sox 10

• Rene Tosoni—1-4 HR(1) RBI 2R 2 BB
• Starlin Castro—3-5 3 RBI R
• Mike Stanton—1-3 R 2 BB SB(1)
• Jose Iglesias—2-4 2B 2R 2 RBI BB
• Steve Singleton—2-5 2B 2R

 Phoenix Desert Dogs 6

• David Espinosa—1-4 3 RBI
• Brandon Snyder—2-5 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Chris Marrero—1-3 HR(1) RBI BB
• Jemile Weeks—1-4 2B R BB

  Surprise Rafters 17

• Ike Davis—4-6 HR(1) 6 RBI 2 2B 2R
• Bryan Anderson—3-5 3R RBI BB
• Lucas Duda—2-5 2B R 2 RBI BB
• Brandon Laird—4-6 3 RBI 2R
• Ruben Tejeda—2-5 2B 2R RBI SB(1)
• Colin Curtis—3-6 2B 2 RBI R
• Ian Kennedy—4 IP 2H eR 4K W (1-0)

  Peoria Javelinas 4

• Casper Wells—2-3 2B RBI
• Lucas May—1-4 HR(1) RBI
• Lorenzo Cain—1-3 2B R BB

 Scottsdale Scorpions 8

• Domonic Brown—1-5 HR(1) 2 RBI
• Darin Holcomb—2-3 R
• Brandon Crawford—2-4 2B 2 RBI BB
• Jose Tabata—1-2 2R RBI 2 BB SB(1)
• Hector Gomez—2-4 2B R RBI

  Peoria Saguaros 4

• Jason Heyward—2-5 2 2B R RBI SB(1)
• Chris Heisey—2-4 3B R RBI

Arizona Fall League: Mesa Solar Sox Roster and Analysis

Posted by Jeremy on under Minor League Ball today | 2 Comments to Read

This is the first of a six part series that will examine the rosters of each Arizona Fall League team.  The Arizona Fall League is annually renown for showcasing the elite talent of each major league organization and often serves as a spring board for talented youngsters to carve out opportunities with their big league clubs in the following MLB season.  For the savvy prospect investor, the AFL offers a prolonged look at the development of key prospects during the baseball offseason and shapes the buying and selling strategies to be employed throughout the ensuing season.

Our first look is at the Mesa Solar Sox which boasts talents from the Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, L.A. Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, and Florida Marlins.  Enjoy!

Top 5 Players to Watch:

1.) Michael Stanton

• It was a tale of two seasons for the king-sized Florida Marlins slugger who split time between High-A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this season.  With Jupiter, Stanton hit .294 with 12 HR 39 RBI and a solid 28 BB/45 K ratio in 50 games.  His promotion to Jacksonville, however, exploited some still raw strike zone judgement (31 BB/99 K in 79 games) that plagued him throught 2008.  As a resut, Stanton mustered a .231 BA against Southern League hurlers, though his 16 HR and 53 RBI were demonstrative indicators of the power to come.  The market for Stanton’s various ‘08 RC autos is still quite active but the costs have diminshed by about 25% since his hot spring numbers.  His cheapest autos can be found in the 2008 Razor series (#/1199) for a shade under $10 each.  His more popular autos in the Bowman Chrome Drat set command $30-35 each.

AFL Outlook:

• Stanton has drawn rave reviews from members within the Marlins organization for his work ethic and cerebral approach to the game.  His struggles with the strike zone are issues stemming strictly from a lack of experience and an expedient ascent through the system.  Like other power hitters, he will always rack up high K totals, but I think that he will find a way to be more selective at the plate which should raise his BB totals as well as his batting average in future years.  If his AFL season is a successful one, Stanton should figure heavily in the Marlins’ plans at some point in 2010.

2.) Josh Vitters

• The top prospect of the Chicago Cubs played like one in his first full professional season, hitting .316 with 15 HR 46 RBI and 42 runs scored in his 70 games at Low-A Peoria.  That performance earned him a promotion to the Cubs’ High-A affiliate Dayton where his numbers dropped considerably (.238 3 HR 22 RBI in 50 games).  Like Stanton, plate discipline was the main culprit of Vitters’ struggles as he earned just 12 walks in 458 AB. 

AFL Outlook:

• Vitters is at least a year to year and a half away from making his major league debut, so this AFL experience is really just an opportunity for Josh to show the Cubs’ brass where he is development-wise.  Current Cubbies 3B Aramis Ramirez is under contract through next season and has a $14.6 million player option that he can utilize for 2011.  This should give Vitters just enough time to develop into a player that can effectively replace Ramirez’s production once he hits the free agent market.  Vitters has autographed cards in various 2007 and 2008 products that all seem to fall in the $10-20 range.  For someone who has promise to be the face of the Cubs franchise within the next two to three seasons, his cards seem like rock solid investments.

3.) Casey Kelly

• Is he a pitcher or an infielder?  Judging by last year’s numbers, his arm seems to be ahead of his bat.  Propelled by a 6-1 record and 1.12 ERA, the 19 year old Sarasota native rocketed his way to High-A Salem and continued to post excellent numbers (3.09 ERA 7 BB/29 K in 35 IP).  Kelly, as per the Red Sox plans, stopped pitching in the second half of the season and played at SS, where his bat (.222 3 HR 16 RBI 16 BB/49 K) failed to muster the same heat has his electric right arm.

AFL Outlook:

• On a roster drunk with top tier shortstops (Starlin Castro, Jose Iglesias), it seems that Kelly’s initial AFL experience will be limited and a primary source of extra offseason work against elite talent.  My gut tells me that Kelly will eventually develop as a pitcher, forgoing the offensive side of his game.  There are several other fine SS (Iglesias, Yamiaco Navarro, Argenis Diaz, Oscar Tejeda) within the system.

4.) Starlin Castro

• The 19 year old Chicago Cubs farmhand had an excellent debut season shooting up to AA Tennessee, hitting .299 with 3 HR 49 RBI and 28 SB over two levels.  The youngest participant in the Arizona Fall League, Castro has shown sound strike zone discipline (29 BB/53 K) and the ability to hit for future power (32 XBH). 

AFL Outlook:

• Castro’s AFL performance could go a long way towards determining just where the Cubs will start him for the 2010 season.  My hunch is that he will go back to AA Tennessee with the intent of earning a promotion to AAA Iowa within the first couple of months.  Current Cubbies SS, Ryan Theriot, had another solid season with both the glove and the bat, which could mean that Castro’s first MLB action may be at 2B instead of SS.  That could happen at the tail end of the 2010 season.  Castro’s first year cards have just been issued in the 2009 Bowman Chrome set.  The base chrome cards are currently trading at $1.25-2.00 each and his refractors can be found for $4-5 per card.  Vitters may be the face of the franchise, but Castro should be playing next to him and hitting in front of him for several future seasons.

5.) Ryan Kalish

• Kalish bounced back after a ho-hum 2008 season to put up big numbers at his High-A and AA stops this year, hitting .279 with 18 HR 77 RBI 21 SB and 84 runs scored.  The increase of his power output did not come at the expense of his plate disciline, which at a rate of 68 BB/107 K in 141 games, is still quite acceptable.

AFL Outlook:

• After being outsted by the L.A. Angels in a three game sweep, the Red Sox have some glaring offseason questions to answer.  Current LF Jason Bay is an unrestricted free agent and J.D. Drew is a prolonged stint on the DL (35 or more days) away from allowing the Red Sox the ability to opt out of the rest of his contract.  Josh Reddick, who received a couple of brief stints with the Sox this year, is at the front of the list of potential replacements, but Kalish may offer a more comprehensive skill set than Reddick has.  Long term, both are quite talented enough to flank Jacoby Ellsbury as a formidable Fenway trifecta for seasons to come.  The current eBay market for Kalish’s various 2008 first year autos between $8-12, which seems like a bargain considering the future potential that Kalish posesses.

Others to watch:

• Luis Exposito–Red Sox top catching prospect highly successful @ AA (.337 3 HR 12 RBI in 23 games)
• Ryan Mount—Disappointing ‘09 season but now top 2B with departure of Sean Rodriguez
• Hank Conger–1st fully healthy season at AA rendered good results (.295 11 HR 68 RBI 55 BB/68 K)
• Andrew Cashner—Cubs ‘08 1st rounder w/ power arm showed he can start (24 starts 2.60 ERA)
• Rene Tosoni—Twins OF w/ solid all around skill set may be playing for a change of scenery
• Chris Parmelee—’06 1st rounder developing plate discipline and light tower power (16 HR 27 2B)
• Jose Iglesias—Cuban FA SS with dynamic glove and emerging offensive potential for Red Sox
• Matt Dominguez–A disappointing 2009 season may be due more to being rushed than overall talent
• David Cooper–Unlike Dominguez, his extremely good ‘08 may be the aberration

PPR Mailbag: Jason Heyward’s 2010 Season

Posted by Jeremy on August 12, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | 3 Comments to Read

Another question made its way into the mailbag yesterday and it’s one that I am sure is on several minds….including my own.

Question:  So do you think Heyward grabs a starting role in the Majors straight out of camp next year? He’s certainly dominating AA.

Answer: Heyward’s jump to AA has exceeded expectations as he is hitting .405 with 6 HR 24 RBI and 12 doubles over 32 games with Mississippi.  What’s more is the fact that Heyward has drawn 17 free passes versus 12 K’s.  The 2010 season looks very interesting for the Braves as both Ryan Church and Garrett Anderson are signed just through the end of this season.  Anderson will be a free agent, unlikely to return, and Church will be arbitration elligible and the jury is out about whether the Braves will offer it to him. 

This opens the doors for players like Heyward, Jordan Schafer, and Brandon Jones to vie for those spots.  It will be interesting to see what the Braves decide to do in the offseason and towards the end of this season.  Just three games out of the NL Wild Card spot, Atlanta is in the thick of the playoff hunt, which should give them pause to experiment much with Heyward, but that could well change by the end of this month.  He’ll get a look in September but may not get a pronounced number of AB’s if the Braves stay in the hunt. 

As for the offseason, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that Heyward will play in the AFL this winter.  Often, this is a league that is dedicated for the top prospects who figure prominently into their club’s plans for the following season.  Despite being just 20 years old on opening day, I think Heyward will be the starting RF and will hit right away.  He is the top prospect in baseball right now and should become a household name beyond the collecting ranks by next season.  Hope for a slowdown in the market for his cards this winter and buy in copious amounts.