PPR Mailbag—Michael Stanton vs. Angel Villalona

Posted by Jeremy on May 12, 2009 under Readers Mailbag | Be the First to Comment

I got two great emails today from two of PPR’s more inquisitive viewers.  I love to get mail from you all with your thoughts and theories to this whole enigmatic and ever-changing process of baseball card prospecting.  This question comes from Justin who wrote in response to my most recent praise of Florida Marlins OF prospect Michael Stanton.  He writes:

Since you wrote up about Michael Stanton, it got me thinking. Who would you rather have and who do you think is the better buy, Michael Stanton or Angel Villalona. Although Villalona is in the hitter-friendly Cal League and Stanton is in the pitcher-friendly Florida St league, Villalona has a much better average (despite less power) and is slightly cheaper as well. Sure Stanton is the better overall player in my eyes, but Villalona is younger and could develop nicely.

I did a little bit of market research and found that this is an even better question than I originally thought because of the similarities that both of these players share.  Both Stanton and Villalona had an auto in one of the 2008 Bowman Chrome sets (Villalona in the regular chrome and Stanton in the draft picks).  Each player is currently playing High-A ball and profiles as the best power hitting prospect in their respective organizations.  Despite their similarities, there are some distinct differences to note as well.  Let’s examine each player more closely:

Michael Stanton—Florida Marlins OF

H/W:  6-5  225 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  11/8/89

2009 Stats:

Current eBay Market Price $35-40

Strengths:

• Stanton has light tower power, as testified by his 39 HR barrage in what was his first full season last year.  Team officials lauded his work ethic this spring and his intense desire to be a student of the game. Beyond his strength, Stanton is said to be an excellent athlete with good speed and fluidity that he employs well in the outfield.  His arm strength should make him an ideal right fielder at the major league level. He has shown the ability to take walks and is showing some better selectivity at the plate.

Weaknesses:

• The high K rate is a major concern with all young prospects. Last year Stanton struck out 153 times in just 125 games. Additionally, he plays in a tough media market, Miami, that has historically has had a mitigable effect on the market exposure of many a talented player. Fan support in Florida has been tepid, though a new stadium in 2012 could help to change things.

Angel Villalona—San Francisco Giants 1B

H/W:  6-3  200 lb.     B/T:  R/R     DOB:  8/13/90

2009 Stats:

Current eBay Market Price $35-40

• Powerful frame and quick bat that projects to hit 35-40 HR per season.  He’s been reported to have a strong work ethic, despite being a bit shy and reserved.  In San Francisco, he plays for an organization that I believe has an extremely bright future and is on the cusp of being a perennial powerhouse in the NL West.  Contending teams draw more media and market attention, which is only beneficial to the bottom lines of the players that help contribute to that cause.

Weaknesses:

• His big body is soft and he looks much heavier than his listed weight.  He has less athleticism than Stanton and will be a liability on the basepaths as he ages.  Even more concerning his his truly terrible BB/K ratio.  This is not uncommon for international players his age as the game in places like the Dominican Republic focuses less on patience at the plate and more on aggressiveness.  Some young players are able to change their approaches, but even more continue to struggle with this.  Last year, Villalona’s first full season, he was able to garner a lowly 18 BB/118 K ratio and this year’s pace is not too much different.

In a Nutshell….

• Both players are extremely talented and should rocket thorugh their respective systems.  Each one has an obstacle-free path to the major leagues and are talented enough to force their ways into a major league lineup.  Stanton, to me, is the safer pick at this point despite Villalona’s better ‘09 offensive numbers.  His power is simply jaw dropping, evoking the venerable Peter Gammons to write an article lauding his brilliant potential.  The thing to watch with both Stanton and Villalona is, as it is with any player, is how each one addresses their weaknesses during their developmental road. 

Thank you Justin for your question and, as always, feel free to email me with all of your prospecting quips and queries!

Humble Pie Courtesy of Tim Alderson

Posted by Jeremy on May 10, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

Every once and a while I have an occasion where I make a strong statement only to have to later knaw on my size 12 sneaker.  It appears that that time has arrived again as Giants super young righthander Tim Alderson has just tossed 6.2 no-hit innings in his AA debut with Connecticut.  Alderson’s perfection was marred by just one walk, but he more than made up for that by punching out 10 New Hampshire hitters. 

Remember that it was just a couple of days ago that I expressed concern that Alderson may have some early struggles as he had been nearly as dominant as his southpaw counterpart Madison Bumgarner.  Well….it looks like the Giants had some idea of what they were doing by sending Alderson east.  Keep an eye on his continued progress and prepare yourself for Bumgarner’s first AA start and get your Alderson cards on eBay now before the rest of the market reads the box score and reacts accordingly.

Giant Trio Earns Big AA Promotion

Posted by Jeremy on May 9, 2009 under Market Watch, Minor League Ball today | Be the First to Comment

The San Jose Giants will start Thursday night’s game minus a significant amount of talent as LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Tim Alderson, and SS Brandon Crawford were promoted to AA Connecticut Wednesday evening. 

Bumgarner, the headliner of the list, seemingly hasn’t missed a beat since last season’s remarkable performance, going 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA and a 4 BB/23 K ratio in 24.1 IP.  The Giants have been conservative with Madison’s workload as he is averaging just five innings per start, perhaps in an effort to save him for a September call up to San Francisco.  Bumgarner pitched very well this spring in limited action for San Francisco, but I don’t know if he will be adaquately prepared to make his big league debut this season.  Bumgarner has pitched well at High-A, but has not dominated in the same fashion that he did last season.  Of the 10 runs that he has allowed this season, only 4 of them have been earned and, while his BB/K ratio has been excellent, he is not striking out hitters at nearly the same pace that he did last season.  Watch his first couple of outings against AA hitters as I believe that it will give a sound bearing on where he is developmentally and may help the Giants better determine their September plans.

Tim Alderson has exhibited excellent control as well with a 3 BB/20 K ratio, but has not been nearly as effective as Bumgarner, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA.  California League hitters are batting .292 against Alderson and he has surrendered 4 HR’s in 5 outings.  Alderson remains an uber-bright talent, but this promotion may be premature.  Like Bumgarner, his first couple of AA starts will be a good indicator of his development to this point.  Unlike his left-handed counterpart, he has virtually no shot at making the Giants’ roster at any point this season.

Brandon Crawford has exceeded several scouts’ expectations thusfar this season, hitting .371 with 6 HR 17 RBI and 21 runs scored through his first 28 games.  The one knock on him is the same knock that scouts had when he was drafted last season.  His 10 BB/32 K’s is a prime indicator that the high batting average may well be a misnomer that could be subject to change significantly following his promotion.  Couple that with the fact that he is vacating the friendly hitting environments of the California League for the less generous Eastern League and it spells out D-E-C-L-I-N-E.  Crawford has promising power potential, especially as a shortstop, but don’t expect the batting average to threaten the .300 level after his promotion, and don’t be surprised if it dips below .260.

San Jose lost some nice talent, but there is still plenty more primed for a promotion later this summer.  Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Connor Gillaspie, Thomas Neal, and Roger Kieschnick have all played exceptionally well this spring and have given Rice-A-Roni Nation several reasons to be excited for what should be a prosperous N.L. West run for many years to come.

Top 20 RHP’s for 2009 **Part 1**

Posted by Jeremy on March 17, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

Amidst all of my spring training reports, content writing for Hot-Prospects.net, and life outside the blogging world, I had put the Top 20 prospect reports on the back burner.  Well, we are back on track and this segment will feature the better half of the top 20 right handed pitching prospects for 2009.  These RHP’s are ones that are projected to be starters at this stage of their careers as we will handle the relievers in a separate post.  I hope you enjoy this immensely talented list!

1.) Tommy Hanson—Atlanta Braves

2009 Stats:

Strengths: Hanson’s fastball velocity jumped from 92-94 MPH to 96-98 MPH.  He locates it well and goes right after hitters.  His curveball is devastating with a hard 12 to 6 break that misses bats.  At 6-6, Hanson uses his height to throw downhill on hitters

Weaknesses: Very few.  Being a flyball pitcher, Hanson has the tendency to leave his heat up in the zone which, while permissable against minor league bats, could lead to trouble against the better hitters in the National League.

2009 Outlook: Hanson has pitched well enough this past fall and during the spring to earn a rotation spot in Atlanta.  He is a prime candidate for the 2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year award and he should anchor a young and talented Braves rotation for years to come.

2.) Neftali Feliz—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A fastball that can register 100 MPH on the radar gun.  Feliz is able to keep his heater down in the strike zone and has shown a marked improvement in controling his breaking ball.  Feliz rarely gets hit hard and is capable of inducing groundball outs when needed.

Weaknesses: Pitching in Texas is tough for any pitcher, especially young ones.  Feliz had a big breakout season in ‘08, but he is still extremely young and inexperienced.  While his changeup has made progress, Neftali still struggles to gain a good feel for it sometimes.

2009 Projection: The temptation of the Rangers to rush Feliz into MLB duty gets greater with every solid outing.  He has proven this spring to be the hands down best pitching prospect that Texas has and it is an inevitability that he will make his debut at some point in 2009, likely before the All-Star break.

3.) Rick Porcello—-Detroit Tigers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Porcello has the stuff and polish of an All-Star veteran pitcher.  His fastball sits between 93-96 MPH and hitters have a difficult time squaring up and driving it because of the late sinking movement.  His slider is a mid 80’s hammer as is his big breaking curveball, but his changeup is far and away the gem of the offspeed pitches with excellent late fade and velocity that can dip down to 70 MPH.  All of these are potential plus to plus-plus offerings and Porcello commands them all with excellence.  His arm action is top notch and his mechanics are flawless.

Weaknesses: 72 K’s in 125 IP is very uncustomary for someone with Porcello’s pure stuff.  Sometimes his slider tends to get slurvy and lacks the bite that his curveball possesses.

2009 Outlook: Porcello should start in AA, but his ultimate destination this next season is in Detroit’s rotation.  At just 20 years old, Porcello has the potential to be baseball’s best rookie pitcher and an all-star caliber ace for years to come.

4.) Trevor Cahill—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His low-90’s fastball has heavy sink that induces groundballs by the bunches.  He controls it well and uses it to set up hitters for his knee-buckling 70 MPH curveball.  Cahill has a good idea on how to set up hitters and locate pitches to all quadrants of the strike zone.

Weaknesses: His changeup is a little behind the other two pitches and his confidence in it wanes from time to time.  While his 6-3 frame is athletic and projectible, Cahill will likely not develop the same velocity on his fastball that pitchers like Hanson, Porcello, Feliz and others feature. 

2009 Projection: Cahill is on a fast track and the organizaiton has not ruled out the possibility that he could find his way into the A’s rotation on opening day.  More likely, Cahill will be shipped to AAA Sacramento and await the phone call that will surely come at some point summoning him to the big club.

5.) Jordan Zimmerman—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His 90-94 MPH fastball has good downward movement and saws off RH batters.  The curveball is a plus pitch with 12-6 break and swing and miss potential.  Zimmerman is a bulldog on the mound and is an agile athlete.

Weaknesses: The third pitch is a changeup and it is a little behind the fastball and curve.  He struggles sometimes with his command and has struggled in the past with heaping too many expectations on himself when he is on the mound.

2009 Outlook: Zimmerman is one of the Nationals’ workhorses in the rotation.  He should fit nicely in the #4 or 5 spot this season with the likelihood of moving into the #2 or 3 slot by 2010.

6.)  Chris Tillman—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His fastball gained a little bit of velocity, sitting comfortably at 92-95 MPH.  He uses his 6-5 frame to leverage it well and attack hitters.  His 11-5 tilt on his curveball is wicked and serves as his strikeout pitch. 

Weaknesses: His control improved last season, but he still walked nearly 4 hitter per 9 innings.  He is a flyball pitcher that sometimes has trouble with locating his fastball down in the zone on a consistent basis.

2009 Outlook: Tillman should make his MLB debut at some point in ‘09, but a trip to AAA Bowie is surely in the making.  The Orioles are amassing a weatlh of intriguing pitching talent in their farm system that could blossom quite soon.  When it does, the AL East will have another beast to contend with and Tillman may be leading the charge atop Baltimore’s young rotation.

7.) Tim Alderson—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: The things that stands out most is Alderson’s pinpoint control.  He is remarkably poised on the mound and has an uncannily high baseball IQ.  Oh, his stuff is pretty good too.  His fastball lives in the low 90’s, topping out at 95.  At 6-7, Alderson throws it downhill at hitters and should be able to generate groundball outs at a decent rate.  His curveball is even better.  It has a hard break and low 80’s velocity, but he has also shown an aptitude for manipulating the velocity and movement of it.

Weaknesses: Some scouts were concerned with the unnatural mechanics of his delivery, thinking that it would affect his durability in the future, but there has been no signs of wear yet.  He needs to gain some bulk on his lean frame and should continue to add depth to his changeup.

2009 Outlook: Alderson should rocket through the Giants system at a similar pace to superstar lefty Madison Bumgarner (more on him later).  Alderson should be ready to make his MLB debut in the second half of the 2010 season and, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain already in San Francisco’s rotation, Alderson along with Bumgarner should form the most formidable young rotation ever seen in the Bay Area.  Giants fans rejoice!

8.) Jarrod Parker—Arizona Diamondbacks

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Big time heat that can touch 97 MPH with ease.  His curveball is tops in the Diamondbacks system with late diving action and his slider is another effective pitch.  Parker has a high IQ on the mound and is a tireless worker.  His mechanics are clean and he has a good idea on how to get hitters out

Weaknesses: Parker has a smallish frame that has been durable thusfar, but runs the risk of wearing down as he ages.  His changeup is a “show me” pitch at this point and his fastball tends to get up in the zone (especially late in games) lowering the number of groundball outs and increasing the risk of surrendering XBH.

2009 Outlook: Parker did well in his first professional assignment and he should continue to prove his greatness at High-A and perhaps AA this season.  Parker has the ability to dominate hiters and should continue to rack up big strikeout numbers in ‘09 with a shot of making the D’Backs rotation in mid-late 2010.

9.) Michael Bowden—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Bowden has a bulldog mentality and breathes baseball.  He has excellent control of three pitches including a 90-92 MPH heater, a 12-6 breaking curveball and a changeup that he throws with deceptive arm speed. 

Weaknesses: Bowden is not overpowering like other pitchers on this list.  He doesn’t induce groundball outs well, which could kill him at Fenway.  His deceptive delivery needs to be cleaned up from the herky jerky movements that could lead to injuries down the road. 

2009 Outlook: In another organization, Bowden would be starting in the middle or end of the rotation.  In Boston, he is a AAA farmhand.  Expect him to start at Pawtucket until an injury or trade allows him an opportunity.  With Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson ahead of him, the latter may be his best bet.  Ultimately his ceiling is as a durable and effective #3 starter.  Given his high amount of success and polish, there is a good chance he will fulfill that promise.

10.) Jhoulys Chacin—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Weaknesses: Chacin’s stuff is not overpowering and, if it is not on, he can be hit hard.  Colorado finesse pitchers have a history of struggling in the light air of Coors Field as their stuff seemingly does not experience the same movement.  A pitch with lateral break (i.e. a slider) would be a welcome addition as Jhoulys’ pitches all have downward movement.  He is not that big and his slender build may struggle to sustain a workload suitable for a top of the rotation starter.

2009 Outlook: ‘09 will be a show me season at AA Tulsa.  It will be interesting to see how his stuff carries over to this challenging level.  Brandon Hynick, a similar finesse pitcher, struggled mightily last season after having an immensely successful season at High-A.  Chacin’s stuff is better, but a repeat performance from 2008’s breakout campaign will be a monumental challenge.

There’s the top 10….your thoughts are welcome.  I will get to work on the 11-20th ranked RHP’s and should have them completed within the next couple of days.  Remember that Friday March 20th is the final day for the PPR Contest.  Thusfar we have 8 excellent submissions and I am always looking for more!

Have a great day!

Your Daily Value #42

Posted by Jeremy on February 18, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

2007 Bowman Sterling WENDELL FAIRLEY TOTC Auto #/500

Current eBay Price—$6.00-8.00

From a glance, Fairley’s debut season at San Francisco’s Arizona Rookie League affiliate was not that spectacular (.259 2 HR 17 RBI 7 SB 35 runs scored), yet there are quite a few reasons to believe that better things…much better things…are soon to come.  The one glaring on field culpbility that worried scouts prior to the ‘07 draft was Fairley’s ability to be disciplined at the plate.  He responded by grinding out a very respectible 26 BB/37 K ratio in 52 games.  That command of the strike zone blended with Wendell’s elite athleticism and budding power potential could mean special things in the near future.

The ‘07 Bowman Sterling card of Fairley’s is one of two primary 1st year cards that features his autograph.  His other one is from the ‘07 Donruss Elite Extra Turn of the Century set (#/500) and those can be had for a couple bucks more ($8.00-10.00). 

The Giants are steadily compiling an assortment of young talent throughout their farm system that should elevate them to the top ot the N.L. West over the next few seasons.  Fairley has all the look of a future franchise CF who could be a perennial 20 HR/20 SB player for years to come. 

Caveat: Fairley had off-field incidents during his high school years that involved alleged assault and a conviction for contributing to the delinquency of a minor.  He has seemingly moved beyond those indiscretions, but his makeup bears watching all the same.

Top 20 Second Base Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 5, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Be the First to Comment

When I started brainstorming this list, I thought that it would be full of stinkers.  Second basemen have historically been nothing more than mediocre infield prospects who couldn’t cut it on the left side of the infield.  However, players like Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, and others have ushered dwellers of the 4-hole to a more respected place amongst the skill positions.  The headliner of this list is Philadelphia Phillies prospect Jason Donald, who has yet to play a professional game at 2B.  However, his expected Opening Day nod in place of the injured Mr. Utley lends credence to his inclusion on this list.

1.) Jason Donald—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Donald has a well rounded set of polished skills that are major league ready.  His leadership, baseball instincts, and work ethic are highly lauded within the organization.

Weaknesses: None of his tangible skills stand out as being above average.  Defensively, Donald can play several infield positions, but he doesn’t dazzle at any one of them.

2009 Outlook: Utley has stated publicly that he expects to be ready for opening day which, if true, will push Donald either over to 3B in place of the injured Pedro Feliz or to AAA Ottawa for some more seasoning.  Donald’s leadership and all out efforts will be well appreciated in the city of brotherly love and could propel this former Arizona Wildcat to become a sentimental fan favorite…at least until he gets traded…or suffers an 0-20 slump.

 

2.) Chris Coghlan—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His tireless competitive drive and sound fundamental skills allow for him to put up good numbers in a variety of categories.  Coghlan has excellent plate discipline and a line drive bat that could hit for a high average at the major league level.

Weaknesses: He doesn’t have great range defensively, and his power tends to hit gaps rather than seats. 

2009 Outlook: Coghlan’s future is directly correlated with the destiny of current Marlin 2B Dan Uggla.  There have been rumors swirling in the offseason that Florida is looking to trade Uggla, but nothing substantial has materialized yet.  Coghlan, in the meanwhile, will continue to polish off his development at AAA Albequerqe until room is made for him on the big league roster.

3.) Sean Rodriguez—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Sean-Rod has intriguing power potential that could translate to at least 20-25 HR per season with the Angels.  Defensively, he has a strong arm, a quick first step and soft hands that should make him an above average fielder.

Weaknesses: Rodriguez left his plate discipline in Salt Lake City after his promotion to L.A.  A disciplined hitter at AAA, Sean became over-agressive at L.A.  Also, his bulky build (6-1 215 lb.) is great for power potential, but should have an adverse effect on his range and athleticism as he ages.

2009 Outlook: Rodriguez is currently blocked by Howie Kendrick at 2B, but Kendrick has failed to complete any of his first three seasons without missing substantial time with injuries.  Rodriguez’s powerful bat is close to ready and the Angels may want to consider giving Sean some reps in the OF to increase their options.  Vlad Guerrero is rapidly losing his athleticism and Juan Rivera has a laundry list of injury woes as well.  Rodriguez turns 24 in April and the best from him is yet to come.

4.) Eric Young Jr.—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: World class speed and excellent lead off skills make the junior version of Eric Young a potentially better player than his father.  Young also turned in an MVP performance in the ‘08 Arizona Fall League adding surprising power to his game, hitting 5 HR in just 100 AB.

Weaknesses: Second base may be a temporary home for Young as his glove and footwork are below average.  His power spike in the AFL, while encouraging, may not carry forward to Colorado.

2009 Outlook: If he is able to stay at 2B, his chances of staying in Colorado are much better.  The Rockies are loaded with good young outfielders and Young’s offensive upside is quite a bit better than current second baseman Clint Barmes.  Watch Young’s performance at AAA Colorado Springs to see if the power carries forward and the defense improves. 

5.) Eric Sogard—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Much like Coghlan, Sogard has a well rounded set of polished skills that, when matched with his work ethic and competitive drive, allows him to put up big numbers across the board.  Sogard has surprising pop for someone his size and has a knack for driving in clutch runs.  His plate disicpline and high contact rates makes him a solid top of the lineup hitter.

Weaknesses: Sogard has average athleticism and speed which could serve as a minor detriment to his defensive range and quickness on the basepaths in future seasons.

2009 Outlook: Sogard will look to demonstrate that his gaudy stats at Lake Elsinore were not a California League aberration.  His skill set, both tangible and intangible, closely resembles that of 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.  By this time next season, Sogard could easily be #1 on this list.

6.) Nick Noonan—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His athletic and projectible frame should build more strength as it matures.  Noonan hit a combined 34 doubles and triples to go with his seven HR.  This leads me to believe that he can develop into a 12-18 HR hitter in the future.  Noonan has an advanced mental approach both offensively and defensively and he utilizes his speed well on the basepaths.  He should be a leadoff or #2 hitter at the major league level.

Weaknesses: Noonan needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition.  He tends to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, limiting his batting average totals and on base opportunities.

2009 Projection: High-A San Jose is his April destination and Noonan has the opportunity to put up some big numbers there.  He is part of a highly talented youth movement that includes the likes of Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, and Tim Alderson.  Look out for this Giants franchise in the next 3-5 seasons!

7.) Jose Vallejo—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lethal top of the order speed and high efficiency on the basepaths.  Vallejo was successful on 94% of his stolen bag attempts (89 of 96) over the last two seasons.  His bat produces sizzling line drives from both sides of the plate and he showed a big spike in XBH power at both High-A and AA last season.  Defensively, Vallejo has good range and a strong arm that should make him an above average fielder.

Weaknesses:  Vallejo’s increase in power came at two environments that tend to surrender inflated offensive numbers.  Is the power spike for real?  Also, Jose needs to trim up his BB/K ratio.  Turning 15-20 of those strikeouts into walks could make him a top of the order hitter.

2009 Outlook: Vallejo may be a victim of circumstance.  Ian Kinsler has emerged as a perennial All-Star and his tenure in Texas looks to be a long one.  However, the Rangers are on the cusp of being a bonafide contender in the AL West and Vallejo could find himself being shipped to another organization in a package deal for more pitching depth.  Jose will increase his stock if he can demonstrate that the power increase is real.  He’ll get a chance to do that at AA Frisco this year.

8.) Adrian Cardenas—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Adrian has a smooth left-handed swing that should develop 15-20 HR power and a high batting average as he matures.  He makes good contact at the plate and has good plate discipline.  Cardenas has average athleticism and speed, but he uses what he has efficiently.

Weaknesses: He has a thick torso and legs that should get slower as he ages.  He may eventually end up at 3B which would make his power potential a touch below average. 

2009 Outlook: Adrian should start the season back at AA Midland.  This should give the 21 year old a chance to develop his power numbers a little more.  Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez are under contract through at least 2010, which should give Cardenas more than enough time to refine his skills.

9.) Matt Antonelli—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Antonelli plays at full throttle at all times.  He has a strong, athletic body that could produce 20 HR/20 SB seasons.  Matt grinds out AB’s and works deep into counts which helps boost his walk totals and on base percentage.

Weaknesses: What happened in 2008?  Antonelli’s precipitous drop off is a little concerning as the usual culprits (injuries or breakdowns in plate discipline) were not factors.  He has solid athleticism now but, like Cardenas, he has a thick build that could lose speed and athleticism as he gets older.

2009 Outlook: Antonelli may have been a victim of bad luck in 2008.  Expect his numbers to rebound to a level that is in between his stellar ‘07 season and his lack luster ‘08.  The Padres currently list Edgar Gonzalez and Luis Rodriguez ahead of Antonelli on their depth chart, but a big spring could well change all of that.  Otherwise, Matt will start the season at AAA Portland and earn a call up at some point soon after Opening Day.

10.) Ryan Mount—Los Angeles Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Big time raw power.  Mount blasted 14 of his 16 HR’s over the final two months of the season.  His frame is continuing to develop and the promise for more power is intriguing.  He makes good contact at the plate and can steal the occasional bag as well.

Weaknesses: Nagging injuries, especially in his legs, has slowed his development and probably will diminish his athleticism as he ages.  Mount already has fringe average range at 2B and his glovework was not awe inspiring.  Mount needs to continue to work on raising his walk totals as advanced pitchers will exploit his aggressiveness.

2009 Outlook: Mount has been preliminarily placed on Salt Lake City’s roster, which seems a tad aggressive given his limited exposure at lower levels.  If Mount can stay healthy, his offensive upside is as good as Sean Rodriguez’s.  His heavy legs may force him to move to 3B down the road.

11.) Jemile Weeks-Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Weeks is a prototypical leadoff hitter with elite speed, excellent plate discipline, and a line drive bat.  Weeks makes good contact with most everything he swings at and has good defensive range.

Weaknesses: His other defensive skills are below average which means that a shift to the OF may happen soon.  Weeks doesn’t have near as much power as his older brother Rickie.

2009 Outlook: Weeks should play at High-A Stockton to start the season.  Given that he has extensive collegiate experience, a performance based promotion to AA Midland is not at all out of the question.  The A’s have been devoid of speedy, top of the order guys in their farm system for years.  Jemile has a good chance to buck that trend within the next 2-3 seasons.

12.) Chih-Hsien Chiang—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His bat is the real deal.  Chiang has a long, agile frame that should be able to hit for more power without sacrificing his good batting average.  The Taiwanese prospect makes good contact at the plate and is aggressive with pitches in the strike zone.

Weaknesses: Chiang is not a good defensive player.  He worked out in the Fall Instructional League as an OF, which means that a position change could happen as soon as this spring.  Chiang is not a weapon on the basepaths either. 

2009 Outlook: AA Portland well be a challenge for Chiang.  Watch to see how his power and defense progresses.  With his big frame, he has the potential to be a 15-20 HR hitter within the next season or two.

13.) L.J. Hoes—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Hoes has an impressive assortment of tools.  His sinewy 6-1 185 lb. frame should build good power as he matures and his speed is well above average.  Many young hitters struggle with their plate discipline coming out of HS, but Hoes’ 30 BB/22 K ratio is nothing short of awesome.  Hoes also has a hose for an arm, being clocked at 95 MPH in high school.  He is said to be a good teammate with a tremendous work ethic as well.

Weaknesses: Right now, it has to be experience, especially at 2B.  Hoes was an outfielder in high school and has only recently made the transition to the infield.  There is promise that he will develop good power, but it is really too early to tell for sure.

2009 Outlook: There is a lot to like in this youngster and his ranking may be a bit conservative at this time.  He should get a shot at full season ball with Delmarva this spring.  That should give us all a better feel for just how good this Maryland native could someday be.

14.) Luis Valbuena—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Valbuena has a nice left-handed swing that produces decent power to the gaps and line drives to all fields.  His BB/K ratio improved significantly in ‘08 and he has the speed to steal double digit bags at the major league level.  Defensively, Valbuena has good range and consistently makes plays and limits his error totals.

Weaknesses: The offensive skills are good but not great.  Valbuena’s ceiling is limited to being a solid, middle of the road second baseman with better than average defensive skills.  While this is not necessarily bad, it won’t propel him into the upper echelon of this list.

2009 Outlook: Luis’ skill set is major league ready, but he must first find a way to distinguish himself from the other 2nd basemen on Cleveland’s roster.  His best chance to do that will be this spring.  If he can hit for the power that he displayed in the Venezuelan Winter League (.291 5 HR 20 RBI), there is a possibility that he could make the Tribe’s 25 man roster.  Otherwise, he will head to AAA Columbus to play every day and wait for an opportunity.

15.) Ryan Adams—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Adams has gap power and a strong, athletic frame.  His speed is a tick above average which plays well on the basepaths.  His arm strength is very good which opens his options to play at several positions.

Weaknesses: A change to another position might be a good move.  Adams was awful defensively, making 46 errors at 2B.  He also needs to become a more disciplined hitter.   Last year, Ryan walked just 36 times while punching out 109 times.

2009 Outlook:  There are plenty of things to like in Adam’s bat, but his skills need a great deal of refining.  he will start the ‘09 season at High-A Frederick.  Keep an eye on where he ends up defensively.  It is quite possible that this will be his only appearance on this list.

16.) David Adams—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: This former Virginia Cavalier has a big strong frame but still is nimble enough to be a decent middle infielder a la Jeff Kent.  Adams has the potential to hit for good power numbers and he is deceptively quick.  He is a hard-nosed player with an agressive drive to succeed.

Weaknesses: His size may get in his way as he ages.  He does have a strong enough arm to play 3B, but a move to the hot corner makes his 18-22 HR potential less alluring.

2008 Outlook: Adams will get to start at Low-A Charleston, but any sustained level of success there should earn him a promotion to Tampa.  He should take a good 2-3 seasons to develop, which should give the Yankees ample time to see if he can eventually fill the shoes of All-Star 2B Robinson Cano.

17.) Chris Getz—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Getz is a scrappy player with a line drive bat and solid plate discipline.  He has good defensive instincts and gets the most out of his average speed on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: He has a gaggle of fringe average tools.  He gets the most out of his abilities, but there aren’t many things in his game that makes him a standout player.  Getz is one of those role players that will always be looking over his shoulder for the bigger, better prospect waiting to unseat him.

2009 Outlook: Chris is at the top of the White Sox depth chart at second base.  He should get every opportunity to keep that position but, as stated earlier, his margin for error is finite.

18.) John Tolisano—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Tolisano has built his strength over the last couple of years providing a quicker and more leveraged swing that should provide 15-20 HR power in time.  He has a very strong arm and decent enough range to stick at 2B. 

Weaknesses: He strikes out way too much.  His aggressiveness leads him to swing at pitches out of the zone and to fail to recognize off speed offerings.  His added bulk has made him a touch slower on the basepaths and could cause him to lose a step in the field.

2009 Outlook: Tolisano had a big time drop off in the second half of last season at Low-A Lansing.  He may find himself back there initially in 2009 to work out some issues at the plate.  The Blue Jays are quite optimistic about his future, but his skills will take a good deal of time and patience to fully develop.

19.) Eric Farris—Milwuakee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Farris has blazing speed and a quick bat that makes consistent contact and slashes line drives for a high average.  Farris’ quickness gives him a great deal of range at 2B and makes him a weapon on the basepaths.

Weaknesses: Eric has virtually no power and despite his speed, he is a mediocre defensive infielder.  He needs to build strength with the bat and consistency with the glove.

2009 Outlook: Farris will be AA Huntsville’s starting 2B this season.  The Brewers’ farm system doesn’t have many good middle infielders—especially 2nd basemen.  Farris has some nice top of the lineup tools, but there are several deficiencies in his game that may force the organization to look elsewhere for projectible talent. 

20.) Justin Snyder—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Snyder is polished and patient at the plate.  He has shown the ability to be versitile, serving time at five different positions in ‘08.  He has decent power to the gaps and is a smart and competitive situational hitter.

Weaknesses: Similar to Chris Getz, Snyder is a low ceiling player who will be bumped around by more talented prospects.  He doesn’t have great power and his speed is average at best. 

2009 Outlook: Justin will move to High-A Tampa to continue in his development.  If he could bump up his HR totals, his value as a prospect would be considerably better. 

Others to consider: Daniel Mayora, Emmanuel Burriss, Shelby Ford, Yung-Chi Chen, Emilio Bonafacio, Justin Turner, Ryan Dent, Tony Thomas, Johnny Giavotella

Ok, it is late and I am sleepy….I hope you enjoy the list of 2B and, as always, I can’t wait to hear your comments and/or your own lists.

Top 20 First Base Prospects for 2009

Posted by Jeremy on February 2, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | 2 Comments to Read

Hello everyone!  Sorry for the delay in getting this list out.  I have been away from the keyboard the past couple of days only to find that a vast influx of readers have stopped by to check things out.  To those of you who are new to Porter’s Prospect Report, please feel free to drop a line and say howdy.  Thank you to all for reading and I hope you enjoy this installment of the Top 20 prospects as we make our way down the 1st base line. 

As expected, this list was even more difficult to rank than the catchers, thanks in large part to a handful of 2008 draftees who all have bright futures ahead of them but not a whole lot of professional data to mull over.  Without further ado, here’s the list…

#1.) Justin Smoak—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Massive power from both sides of the plate a la Mark Teixeira.  He also has excellent plate discipline and is an above average defensive 1B.  The biggest question about Smoak is:  Why did he slip all the way to the 10th spot in the draft?

Weaknesses: He will not set any land speed records on the bases and his defensive acumen does not extend beyond 1B.

2009 Outlook: Smoak played in the Arizona Fall League briefly which indicates to me that he will start his season with High-A Bakersfield in the California League.  Given that tasty tidbit of info, it is quite likely that he will put up some gaudy numbers and a trip to AA Frisco on the Texas Ranger fast track is, by no means, out of the question.

2.) Lars Anderson—Boston Red Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lars is a polished hitter with a tall, powerful frame that will develop more power as he matures.  He drives just about everything that he swings at and utilizes top notch plate discipline to boot.  Defensively, Anderson is a whiz with the potential to earn Gold Gloves in future seasons.

Weaknesses: Much like Smoak, Anderson is not a particularly quick baserunner and his defensive abilities are limited to first base.

2009 Outlook: The Red Sox are pretty well set with Youkilis manning the controls for the next couple of seasons and Mike Lowell and David Ortiz signed through 2010.  That should keep Anderson at AAA for the entire season with, perhaps a September cameo possible this season.  Lars is too good to keep down for long and the Red Sox may decide to get creative this off season to prepare room for their #1 overall prospect.

3.) Logan Morrison—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Like Smoak and Anderson, Morrison employs a lethal combination of power, batting average and plate discipline to make him one of the league’s up an coming sluggers.  His numbers in the Arizona Fall League (.404 5 HR 29 RBI) shows that his ‘08 dip in power may be an aberration.

Weaknesses: He is an average fielder at 1B, and his boost in batting average in ‘08 came at the expense of some of his power.  While he has the potential to hit for both, there is an ever so slight uncertainty that it will happen.

2009 Overview: AA should provide a good bearing on Logan’s projectible future.  If his AFL contributions are any indicator, Gaby Sanchez’s reign as the Marlins’ starting 1B will be a very short one.

4.) Yonder Alonso—Cincinnati Reds

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A solid high average bat that should produce at least 20-25 HR power in the major leagues.  His plate discipline and patience may be the best from any prospect in the ‘08 draft class as well.

Weaknesses: He is a fringe average defensive 1B who has virtually no shot at playing any other positions.  He has a pudgy frame that could add unwanted, performance detracting weight in future seasons.

2009 Overview: Alonso’s polish and sterling performance in the Hawaiian Winter League should allow him to jump directly to AA Carolina for the beginning of the ‘09 season.  The Reds are well set with Joey Votto performing the every day duties at 1B, but Alonso’s bat will not wait long in the Reds’ farm system.  Votto has the ability to play LF, though, and it seems reasonable that he could move there to make room for Yonder by 2010.

5.) Freddie Freeman—Atlanta Braves

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Freeman has just scratched the surface of what his towering and powerful frame can produce.  He shows an incredible aptitude for driving in runs and driving the ball to all fields and scouts say that the ball sounds different coming off of his bat.  Defensively, Freeman has good instincts around the bag and a strong arm as well.

Weaknesses: His 6-5 220 lb. frame has the potential to build quite a bit more bulk, which should cut into his athleticism even further.  He will also have to increase his walk totals as he progresses.

2009 Outlook: The Braves should send Freeman to High-A Myrtle Beach to team with OF prospects Jason Heyward.  Freeman will be just 19 this season and his potential to be an elite power hitter could boost him to the top of this list in the next season or two.

6.) Kyle Blanks—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Blanks is a hitting machine, lacing line drives to the gaps and piling up RBI’s in bunches.  He has solid plate discipline and his nimble feet around 1B belies his behemoth-like frame.

Weaknesses: His 6-6 270 lb. frame has some softness and could be an injury culpability over time.  Despite his size, Blanks doesn’t drive balls for power to the opposite field much.  This could just be an approach thing that could be rectified with more work.  Also, his defensive skill set doesn’t extend beyond the first base bag, which siginificantly limits his opportunities with San Diego.

2009 Outlook: The Padres already have a pretty good 1B in Adrian Gonzalez which means that Blanks should get a heavy dose of AAA pitching this season.  Gonzo’s contract extends through 2011 and the price tag is quite low.  This makes Blanks a prime candidate for a change of scenery as a high-value trading chip within the next season or two.

7.) Eric Hosmer—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Prime time power potential and the ability to hit for a high average.  Hosmer was the most polished prep hitter of the ‘08 draft.  His defense has also drawn rave reviews as his range, arm strength, and soft hands are all well above average.

Weaknesses: Not enough data at the major league level.  His plate disicpline at a pro level and power output will be monitored closely.  Like many big hitters, Hosmer’s long arms can make him more culpable to being jammed by pitches up and in.

2009 Outlook: The Royals are flush with 1B prospects througout their system, but Hosmer is far and away the best of the bunch.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hosmer get a shot at full season Low-A Burlington come April.

8.) David Cooper—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Has the potential to be a future batting champion.  Cooper hits frozen ropes from foul line to foul line with the potential to hit 25-30 HR per season. 

Weaknesses: He is not an exceptional defensive player and has below average speed.

2009 Outlook: After playing at three levels last season, it is quite apparent that Cooper is on a fast track to Toronto.  The Blue Jays have current 1B Lyle Overbay signed through the 2010 season, which should provide Cooper with ample time to put the finishing touches on his development.  He should spend most of the season at AA New Hampshire but a promotion to AAA Syracuse and, perhaps, a September audition in Rogers Centre could also be in the cards.

9.) Kila Ka’aihue—Kansas City Royals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Ka’aihue’s ‘08 season was remarkable in every way.  Eye popping power production, a .300+ batting average and more than 100 walks made him a pitcher’s nightmare at multiple levels. 

Weaknesses: His incredible ‘08 season represents a huge spike over the production from the previous four years worth of statistics.  Has he taken a step forward in development or is this a one year aberration?  His defense at 1B is only so-so and he may profile better as a DH.

2009 Outlook: No one was more disappointed with the Royals’ trade for Mike Jacobs than Kila Ka’aihue.  This development ensures that the Hawaiian slugger will either be mired in a part time 1B/DH gig with K.C. or, more likely, will head to AAA Omaha to demonstrate that he can re-enact his numbers from last season.

10.) Chris Carter—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Chris Carter may just be the king of the HR hitters on this power-packed list.  Even more scary is the fact that his 39 HR from ‘08 may be peanuts compared to what he could produce once his 6-4 210 lb. frame fills out a bit more.  Carter has shown a willingness to draw walks and his 32 doubles hit shows a willingness to be a more complete hitter.

Weaknesses: Carter strikes out…a lot. His mediocre batting average in the California League infers that his all or nothing approach could be exploited at higher levels.  The A’s have also struggled to find a defensive home for Carter, as he has spent time at 1B, 3B, and in the OF with ho-hum results. 

2009 Outlook: Carter will take his big bat to AA Midland to prove that the friendly skies of Stockton did not influence his HR totals.  While his power is prestigious, Carter has several wrinkles in his game that still need to be ironed out over the next couple of seasons.

11.) Angel Villalona—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Off the charts power projectibility.  Villalona has the ideal frame and swing to be a league-leading HR hitter.  He is agile for his size and should be a solid fielder akin to the former All-Star 1B Andres Galarraga.  Villalona is described by many within the Giants’ organization as being a humble, likeable person with a good work ethic.

Weaknesses: 18 BB vs. 118 K’s.  Villalona is an overly aggressive hitter who has rudimentry pitch recognition.  His strapping body has some baby fat on it which, if not trimmed down, could have detrimental effects on his athletic abilities.

2009 Outlook: Villalona improved as the season progressed which should earn him a promotion to High-A San Jose.  If he struggles though, he may head back to Augusta for more refining.  At just 18 years old, the sky is the limit for Angel.

12.) Sean Doolittle—Oakland Athletics

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Doolittle is a polished hitter with promising gap power with an athletic and projectible 6-3 190 lb. frame.  He his has the ability to play 1B at a Gold Glove level, but his range and arm strength also makes him a viable outfielder as well.

Weaknesses: Sean’s strikeout totals (154 in 135 games) were uncharacteristically high, perhaps due to the fact that he made a more concerted effort to increase his power numbers. 

2009 Outlook: Doolittle’s solid showing in the Arizona Fall League (.293 8 HR 26 RBI) may earn him a promotion to AAA Sacramento for the start of the ‘09 season.  It is quite difficult to figure out where the former Virginia Cavalier will play in Oakland as the roster is already overflowing with OF’s and 1B.  Things should really open up for Doolittle in 2010 as Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi will be gone and the Daric Barton era at 1B will likely come to an end.

13.) Beau Mills—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths:  Mills offers a comprehensive package of average and power potential.  His 6-3 220 lb. frame is strong and durable.  Beau has good MLB bloodlines as his dad Brad Mills is a former MLB player and the Boston Red Sox bench coach.  His makeup and leadership skills have been lauded by the Indians’ organization.

Weaknesses: Like many 1B prospects, Mills is limited athletically and has slow footspeed.  He was a poor fielding 3B in college and his defensive potential as a 1B has yet to be determined. 

2009 Outlook: Mills showed good offensive numbers in a pitching friendly environment last season.  He moves to AA Akron to hopefully build on his promising power numbers.  The Indians will have some interesting decisions to make within the next couple of seasons as several promising power hitters like Matt LaPorta, Wes Hodges, and Nick Weglarz are all players whose defensive deficiencies in other areas may relegate them to becoming inadvertent competitors with MIlls at 1B.

14.) Brandon Allen—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths:  Built like an NFL linebacker, Allen may be the most complete athlete on this list.  His power-packed bat has the potential to hit 30+ HR per season and he should also be able to produce 10-15 SB per year as well.  Allen nearly doubled his walk totals and his increased power did not have a negative effect on his K rate.

Weaknesses: Allen is still trying to figure things out defensively.  He has oscillated between the outfield and first base, but has yet to truly master either position.  His strikeout totals are still a bit too high and he will never contend for a batting average title.

2009 Outlook: Allen handled the challenges of AA ball exceedingly well, but there is no real need for the White Sox to rush him along yet.  Paul Konerko is signed through 2010, though it seems probable that Chicago will try to move him before then.  Allen needs to tune up his hands and footwork , and AA seems to be the best place to do it.  If he continues to mash, a promotion to AAA should happen at some point in ‘09.  Allen is just 23 years old and his future in the launching pad known as “The Cell” is quite promising.

15.) Brandon Snyder—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Snyder’s second half performance and his stint in the Arizona Fall League makes him a prime time breakout candidate for 2009.  Brandon has the potential to be a .300+ hitter with good power to the alleys.  His defense at 1B should be much better than it was as a catcher or third baseman too.

Weaknesses: Plate discipline still needs refining.  Snyder has a tendency to be overly aggressive and streaky at times.  He also has a stocky build that could add athletically inhibitive pounds as he ages.

2009 Outlook: AA Bowie will be a good test for Snyder.  The Eastern League, especially early in the season, can be tough on young hitters and their power numbers.  If he continues his torrid pace, Brandon’s stock could rise significantly.  The Orioles were hot bidders in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, which indicates their desire to add a big time bat to their infield.  Snyder has an opportunity this season to make the O’s believe that he can fill that void.

16.) Chris Marrero—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Limitless power projectibility and a sweet right-handed swing that can potentially hit for a high batting average.  Unlike many young power hitters, Marrero has a good feel for the strike zone and doesn’t rack up big strikeout totals.

Weaknesses: Injuries cut his 2008 season to just 70 games.  His 6-3 210 lb. frame is not overly athletic and it has been difficult for him to find a defensive home. 

2009 Outlook: Marrero has reportedly worked hard this offseason to get himself into tip-top shape for the ‘09 season.  Expect him to start at High-A Potomac again to shake the rust off.  If all goes well, he could find himself back on Washington’s fast track and his status on this list could rise significantly.

17.) Gaby Sanchez—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Sanchez is a line drive hitter with average power and very good plate discipline.  He has put a great deal of effort into sculpting his body and increasing his athleticism.  Unlike most 1B prospects, Sanchez is not a liability on the basepaths.  In fact he has the potential to accrue double-digit SB numbers at the major league level. 

Weaknesses:  Gaby is an older prospect who has maxed out physically and likely will not develop above average power numbers.  Additionally, Sanchez appears to be a victim of circumstance as the highly touted Logan Morrison is knocking on the door to his major league career.

2009 Outlook: Sanchez has a good shot at winning the opening day nod for the Marlins in ‘09.  While he doesn’t hit for as much power as recently departed Mike Jacobs, his blend of batting average and plate discipline should be welcome additions to this power-packed lineup.

18.) Allan Dykstra—San Diego Padres

2008 Stats:

Strengths: At 6-5 220 lb., Dykstra is the prototypical statuesque power hitting lefty with a decent glove and advanced plate discipline.

Weaknesses: In the same vein of protypical 1B, Dykstra is athletically limited and a liability on the basepaths.  On a list of top-tier corner infielders, Dykstra is a solid but unspectacular talent.

2009 Overview: Dykstra is a few levels behind top prospect Kyle Blanks, which allows the Padres time to bring him along at a leisurely pace and to further decide what to do about their depth at 1B.  The Wake Forest alum is a few years away from his major league debut and, by that time, we will have a much better bearing on what can be expected from him in his major league career.

19.) Mark Trumbo—L.A. Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Trumbo has a classic power hitter’s swing that generates a high percentage of long flyballs.  He has put in great efforts to increase his strength and agility and the dividends are apparently paying off.

Weaknesses: The bulk of Trumbo’s numbers were accrued at Rancho Cucamonga, which has a history of inflating offensive performances (remember Brandon Wood’s 2005 season?).  Mark will be hard pressed to replicate those numbers at higher levels as his athleticism could limit him.  Additionally, his 33 BB/96 K ratio is less than desirable for someone of his power potential.

2009 Outlook: Kendry Morales is finally getting his shot at the starting gig in L.A.  His performance will dictate the pace at which Trumbo is promoted this coming season.  It is quite possible that Mark will start the ‘09 season back at Arkansas in hopes that he regains the power stroke that betrayed him in the AFL (1 HR in 154 AB).  Conventional wisdom should show that he is not quite as good as his Rancho Cucamonga numbers indicated.

20.) Mike Carp—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Superb plate discipline and a line drive bat that hits line drives to all fields.  Carp has a good work ethic and showed resilience by bouncing back from a bad 2007 season.

Weaknesses: Carp’s power potential is significantly less than the other prospects on this list.  He is not a particularly good defensive player and he still struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  Put that all together and you have a platooning DH. 

2009 Outlook: The Mariners are, to say the least, a team in transition.  The assortment of 1B currently on the M’s roster is far from formidable.  Carp will start the season at AAA Tacoma, but there is a realistic shot that he will earn a call up at some point.  At just 22 years old, Carp could still develop into a Lyle Overbay-type player.

Others to consider: Brandon Laird, Anthony Rizzo, Ike Davis, Juan Miranda, Kala Ka’aihue, Joe Koshansky, Chris Parmelee, Michael Durant

Next up are the 2nd basemen, I should have them up within the next 48 HRs.  Enjoy!

Top 20 Catching Prospects in ‘09

Posted by Jeremy on January 29, 2009 under 2009 Top 20 Prospects | Read the First Comment

Here’s the first of a nine part series that will detail the top 20 prospects from each of the various positions on the diamond. Each profile offers only a brief overview.  For more detailed analysis, check out my other site Hot-Prospects.  The prototypical catcher has changed over the past decade or so. Gone are the days of the unathletic and offensively inept backstop. Today’s catching prospects have middle of the lineup bats, rocket arms and good athletic skills. This batch offers no exception and its headliner may just be the best overall prospect in baseball this season.

#1) Matt Wieters—Baltimore Orioles

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Um….everything.  You name it, his bat, plate discipline, glove, arm, power, leadership, and work ethic are all at elite levels and ready for major league action. 

Weaknesses: He won’t steal many bags, but then again, which catchers do?  Also, and this is nitpicking, his size evokes comparisons to Joe Mauer which leads me to have fleeting concerns about future injury struggles.  Wieters has never had to miss action in the past, however, and shows no signs of slowing down yet.

2009 Outlook: The O’s signed Greg Zaun in the offseason as insurance for Wieters.  There’s no doubt that he is ready to start in the big leagues, but Baltimore may opt to keep him at AAA Norfolk just long enough hold back the hands of the arbitration clock.  A strong spring could and should make that a moot point.  Once he emerges, he is a top candidate for A.L. Rookie of the Year honors and for many future All-Star seasons.

2.) Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Posey’s bat is electric, slashing deep drives to the gaps and down the lines.  He batted .469 with 23 HR and 93 RBI with the Florida State Seminoles this past season.  He has stellar plate discpline and hand eye coordination.  A converted SS, Posey may be the most athletic catching prospect in baseball with plus defensive skills and agility.

Weaknesses: It is unclear how much power Buster will hit for as a pro.  He had one big power season with an aluminium bat but has been more of a line drive guy since.  He has high upside behind the plate, but is still learning the subtle nuances of the position.

2009 Outlook: The Giants are excited to pair him up with top pitching prospects Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson at High-A San Jose.  Those three will serve as integral pieces in shaping the future success of the Giants organization and the outlook for that happening is quite good.

3.) Jesus Montero—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His bat is golden.  In his first full season, Montero demonstrated that he can hit for a high average and that his power, while good now, has a chance to be great.  Unlike many young hitters, Montero doesn’t strike out too much and he seems to be quite willing to grind out walks 

Weaknesses: His glove is not golden.  Montero’s size affects his agility behind the dish and his quickness in throwing out baserunners (26 of 105).  His 6-4 225 lb. body is not done growing either which should mean that a switch to 1B or DH will soon follow.

2009 Outlook: It’s on to High-A Tampa for Montero to see if he can continue his torrid hitting.  Expect some of those 34 doubles from last season to become HR’s this season and, with the success of Austin Romine (more on him later) behind the dish, expect to see Jesus with a 1B or DH behind his name more often.

4.) Carlos Santana—Cleveland Indians

2008 Stats:

Strengths: His thunderous bat broke through big time in ‘08.  He produces surprising power with a compact swing and fast hands.  His plate discipline is top notch and he has a knack for driving in runs in clutch situations. 

Weaknesses: While he has good receiving skills, his arm is inaccurate (34 of 127 CS) and his release time is below average.  These things shouldn’t deter him from sticking as a catcher, though.  Santana had a great season, but the ability for him to repeat it is yet to be known.

2009 Outlook: Santana will move on to AA Akron where he had a cameo last season.  Heisted from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade, Santana is fully capable of becoming an exceptional option to fill the void behind the plate in Cleveland that Victor Martinez leaves behind. 

5.) Tyler Flowers—Chicago White Sox

2008 Stats:

Strengths: If the Arizona Fall League performance from Mr. Flowers (.387 12 HR 23 RBI 25 runs in 20 games) is any indication, Tyler may have more power than any other catching prospect in baseball.  With his 6-4 245 lb. frame Flowers can hit just about any pitch out of the ballpark.  Flowers is a highly selective hitter as well walking 98 times in ‘08.

Weaknesses: Like Jesus Montero, Flowers will be hard pressed to stay behind the plate.  His enormous size and below average athleticism makes him a more ideal candidate for one of the infield corner positons.

2009 Outlook: Now as a memeber of the White Sox, Flowers should move on to AA Birmingham or AAA Charlotte for the start to the 2009 season.  Expect Flowers to dramatically exceed his Myrtle Beach HR totals (17) this season.

#6.) J.P. Arencibia—Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Stats:

Strengths: A powerful bat that can hit 20-25 HR per season at the MLB level and improving defensive tools to go with his top notch leadership skills.

Weaknesses: His plate discipline is awful (18 BB/101 K) and he is a prototypical base-clogging catcher.

2009 Outlook: Arencibia’s power is intriguing, but he is not ready to make his MLB debut.  He should play the entire season at AAA Syracuse before earning a few Rogers Centre AB’s in September.

7.) Lou Marson—Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Marson has a line drive bat that produces occasional power to the gaps and should hit for a high batting average in Philly.  His plate discipline is also very good and his receiving skills makes him one of the better defensive backstops in the minor leagues.

Weaknesses: In a position that is becoming increasingly populated with power hitters, Marson has yet to demonstrate much.  If it does come around, he may find himself bumped up a notch or two on this list.

2009 Outlook: Marson got a look last season and performed quite well, but the post season heroics of Carlos Ruiz should mean that the 22 year old Marson will head to AAA Lehigh Valley to start the season.  He’ll be back up at some point—hopefully with a little added thunder in his bat.

8.) Taylor Teagarden—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Teagarden has elite defensive skills.  Baserunners simply do not run on him like they do other minor league catchers.  He has the potential to be a 20 HR hitter in the major leagues and his brief stint in Texas was nothing short of impressive.

Weaknesses: Injuries have cost Teagarden costly development time early in his career.  His subpar performances in two hitter-friendly environments (Frisco and Oklahoma City) raises the question “Who is thre REAL Taylor Teagarden?”

2009 Outlook: The Rangers are flush with young catchers.  There have been some trade rumors swirling around one of them (more likely Saltalamacchia or Ramirez) heading to Boston.  Teagarden’s defensive advantages supercedes both Salty and Max Ram’s offensive upsides.  Expect Teagarden to get the majority of AB’s in Texas this season.

#9) Jonathan Lucroy—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Lucroy has surprising power from his average sized frame and he blends it with above average plate discipline.  His defensive skills are underrated as he gunned down 49 % of would be base stealers and earned a .989 fielding %.

Weaknesses: Lucroy’s athleticism has probably peaked already and there is a chance that his numbers may slip a little as he progresses against more advanced competition. 

2009 Outlook: He’ll start at AA Huntsville and may get a look at AAA Nashville at some point this season.  Angel Salome’s sterling ‘08 season has placed him in Milwaukee’s immediate plans, but Lucroy’s blend of skills is considerably better and it is only a matter of time until he surpasses Salome.

10.) Angel Salome—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Salome makes good contact at the plate and peppers line drives all over the field.  He is compact and powerfully built and his athleticism and arm strength are both above average.

Weaknesses: Salome’s receiving skills and arm accuracy are rudimentary at this point.  Also, while he has good power to the gaps, he will likely be a 10-15 HR hitter in the major leagues.  Salome’s mechanics at the plate have been characterized as “unconventional” and “ugly but effective”.  This could lead to problems against pitchers paid to exploit those flaws.

2009 Outlook: Salome is a better option than any of the three other receivers on Milwaukee’s roster.  He will be given a shot at earning a spot in the Brewers’ opening day lineup.  If he doesn’t succeed, he will head back to AAA Nashville and wait for his opportunity.

11.) Hank Conger—L.A. Angels

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Conger can flat out hit.  He has power from both sides of the plate and has a knack for driving in runs in bunches.  He has a good approach at the plate and is aggressive with pitches in the strike zone.    His arm strength is also quite strong.

Weaknesses: Conger is a walking M.A.S.H. unit.  He has missed time in each of his first three seasons suffering from various maladies.  Behind the plate, Conger’s skills are below average and a move to 1B or DH seems to be in the making.

2009 Outlook: Hopefully it is a healthy one.  He’ll start at AA Arkansas with a promotion to Salt Lake City being a possibility.  The Angels would love to get his bat into their lineup in some capacity or another by mid-2010.

12.) Kyle Skipworth—Florida Marlins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Power, power, power.  Skipworth has it from foul pole to foul pole and the fact that it comes from the left hand side of the plate makes him even more valuable.  He has a cannon for an arm and he is not afraid to use it to nab unaware baserunners.

Weaknesses: His other skills behind the plate are quite sloppy.  He has hard hands and his large size makes affects his coordination and quickness at blocking balls in the dirt and rising from a crouch.  His debut with the GCL league also showed that he needs some work on his plate discipline as well.

2009 Outlook: The Marlins should give Skipworth a shot a full season Low-A ball this year at Greensboro.  If he struggles early on, he may go back down to short season Jamestown.  The future is very bright for this youngster, he just needs time.

13.) Brett Lawrie—Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Stats: Not Available

Strengths: Lawrie had one of the most intriguing prep bats in the 2008 draft.  He has plus-plus power potential and exceptional bat speed.  Additionally, his athleticism could eventually make him a solid defensive player behind the plate.

Weaknesses: Rawness and inexperience.  There are quite a few unknowns about how Lawrie will develop defensively and he may need to shift to another position if catching doesn’t take.

2009 Outlook: With both Salome and Lucroy already experiencing success in the system.  The Brewers will opt to take their time with Lawrie.  He should get some work at extended spring training before joining the Brewers’ short season affiliate Helena.

14.) Max Ramirez—Texas Rangers

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Max Ram has an explosive bat that hits for a high average and good power to all fields.  He is an aggressive hitter who makes good contact and drives in runs by the bunches.

Weaknesses: He is a terrible defensive catcher.  The Rangers have tried to find a different position for him to play (1B, LF, DH) and the odds are pretty good that his future resides with one of them.

2009 Outlook: Ramirez’s Venezuelan Winter League stint (.298 15 HR 53 RBI) has the Rangers abuzz about his potential in their lineup, but there are log jams at every stop.  I think his future in Texas will not be long lived.  The Rangers need pitching and he is one of the best young bats that they have available for trade.

#15.) Derek Norris—Washington Nationals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Norris drew 63 walks in 70 games at short season baseball.  He has an athletic and powerful catcher’s build that profiles to hit for power and average as well.  He has good speed for a catcher and will steal the occasional base.  Defensively, Norris has solid all around skills and a strong arm that gunned out 47 % of potential base stealers last season.

Weaknesses: Norris needs to prove he can continue this success at full season ball.  He could cut his K rate back a little bit as well.

2009 Projection: Full season Low-A Harrisburg seems to be the likely destination for Norris.  There is quite a bit of upside in this young receiver’s game and he could find himself much higher on this list next season.

16.) Wilin Rosario—Colorado Rockies

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Rosario’s bat has the potential to be a middle of the lineup run producer that hits 20-25 HR per season with a high batting average.  He is an aggressive hitter who have excellent bat speed and wiry strength.  His arm is a force to be reckoned with as he vanquished 46% of potential base stealers in ‘08.

Weaknesses: His high energy approach tends to make him overly aggressive at the plate at times.  He will be challenged to continue his stellar numbers at the next level.  It will be important for him to work counts more effectively to avoid a drop off.

2009 Outlook: Low-A Asheville awaits Rosario.  This should be an environment where his bat will continue to flourish.  Like Derek Norris, another fine season from Wilin Rosario will bump him considerably higher on next season’s list.

17.) Adam Moore—Seattle Mariners

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Moore is big and strong (6-3 220 lb.) and his bat shows it.  He is not just a masher, though.  Moore hits the ball well to all fields and has a sound approach at the plate in all situations.  He is a solid game caller and should be a vocal leader in the clubhouse.

Weaknesses:He has made good strides in his defensive game, due in large part to extensive work with M’s catching instructor Roger Hanson.  However, his large frame has a negative effect on his mobility, as testified by his 44 passed balls over the past two seasons.

2009 Outlook: The M’s have Kenji Johjima and Matt Clement blocking Moore’s opportunities in Seattle, but he won’t be far away.  He’ll play the majority of the season at AAA Tacoma and will continue to work on his agility behind the dish.  Expect a call up in September.

18.) Austin Romine—New York Yankees

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Romine’s first season offensive numbers were icing on the cake to many analysts who are more enamored with his athleticism and elite arm strength.  Romine showed that he could be an offensive force as well who hits for a good average and solid power numbers.

Weaknesses:Romine didn’t put his defensive abilities to good use in ‘08, throwing out just 20 of 98 base runners and allowing 18 passed balls. 

2009 Outlook: Romine continues alongside fellow catching prospect Jesus Montero to High-A Tampa for more development.  It will be interesting to see how the Yankees organization addresses this developing situation.  The best bet is that Montero will be the one who shifts to 1B.

19.) Bryan Anderson—St. Louis Cardinals

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Anderson has a line drive bat and highly developed plate discipline.  He is an intelligent player who has a great feel for calling pitches and commanding a pitching staff.  He should hit for a high average at the major league and play solid defense.

Weaknesses: The power has not developed yet, as Anderson’s career high for HR’s in a season is 6.  He is an average athlete who has a low ceiling for development.

2009 Outlook: Anderson’s path to St. Louis is obscured by Yadier Molina who is entering the prime of his career and is under contract through at least 2011.  Likely, Bryan will be playing everyday at AAA Springfield again in hopes that he can develop a little more pop in his bat to draw attention of the Cardinals’ brass.

20.) Wilson Ramos—Minnesota Twins

2008 Stats:

Strengths: Ramos is very strong with good bat speed that produces power to all fields.  He is a good athlete as well with above average quickness for a catcher and a strong, accurate arm (43% CS rate in ‘08).

Weaknesses: His aggressiveness can get him in trouble at times at the plate.  He strikes out too much and walks too little (37 BB/103 K).

2009 Outlook:  AA New Britain will provide a good challenge for Ramos this season and give us all abetter look at his potential going forward.  If he can hone his plate discipline, he should move up this list.  If not, he could find himself off of it.

Others to consider:

Luis Exposito, Jason Castro, Josh Donaldson, Mike McKenry, Francisco Pena, Jacob Jefferies, Petey Paramore, Adrian Nieto,

Stay tuned for the next installment as we travel 90 ft. up the 1st base line to examine the formidable Top 20 1st Basemen.  If you enjoyed this series, feel free to check out some of the eBay links to some great auctions going on right now.  Use the comments list below to propose your top 20 catchers or comment on mine!

Top Caribbean Winter League Performer #4

Posted by Jeremy on January 19, 2009 under Prospects in Products | Be the First to Comment

4.) PABLO SANDOVAL—San Francisco Giants 3B/1B

Pablo “Pass the Biscuits” Sandoval made a huge splash with the Giants last season destoying NL pitching to the tune of a .345 BA with 3 HR and 24 RBI in 41 games.  Benji Molina’s presence behind the plate has given the Giants the ability to move Sandoval to the infield corners where his slick glove work, to the delight of the organization, belied his rotund frame.  Pablo’s VWL stats gives some reason to believe that the power he demonstrated in minor league action last season (20 HR 96 RBI 38 doubles) could well return to the Bay Area for 2009.  The big key with him will be his conditioning.  The major league season is a grind and carrying the extra weight only increases the risk of nagging injuries and hindered performance.

Top Caribbean Winter League Performer #9

Posted by Jeremy on under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

9.) JESUS GUZMAN—San Francisco Giants 3B

Hitting .301 with 25 HR and 112 RBI at the Seattle  Mariners’ High-A affilate wasn’t enough to earn him a contract renewal so the A’s signed him to a one year minor league deal.  He then spent time in three separate stops and put up a sizzling .349 BA with 17 HR and 88 RBI.  That wasn’t enough to impresse the offensively defunct Athletics so they Rule-5′ed him and the boys from the other side of the bay picked him up.  Guzman continued to mash in the VWL earning MVP honors as well as the honor of being designated to AAA Fresno to start the season.  Where’s the love for Jesus?  It most certainly does not reside in his glove.  Guzman played at every infield position as well as in the outfield for AA Midland in ‘08 and he failed to impress at any one of them.  Despite his fine VWL campaign, his 12 errors are still an indicator of an inability to establish any defensive continuity.  Sometimes in the glitz and glam of the offensive statistics, we fail to remember that the value of a baseball player transcends what he can do with the lumber.  Guzman must improve with the leather if he wants to stick with the Giants or any other organization